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November Discussion


DaculaWeather

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I've been enjoying the very comfy warm days, but today was humid here in Savannah.

Larry, I worry about you wandering about the beach, eating ice cream, enjoying hot weather. How will you ever get in shape to nail another Sav. snow this season?

76.1 was the high today, after a 60.3 last night. Not such good sleeping weather anymore. I had to turn on the fans again today. T

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Obviously the models are having a tremendously hard time with the flow right now, much more so than usual. Some days the ECMWF has a major ridge over us, other days the ridge is replaced by a trough or closed low, or some mix of zonal to amplified flow. The GFS even develops a rex block in Canada, northern US later on, but take both models very lightly for now. I still lean toward a flipping of the pattern at late month/1st week Dec. I certainly hope it happens, as it is a heck of a lot easier to make a forecast when that's in place instead of the screaming Pac. jet.

Happy Birthday Robert! You shouldn't hide that! whistle.gif

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As for the severe potential tomorrow, FFC's latest discussion says "the severe threat appears pretty significant" and GSP also mentioning it as well. Haven't had time to look at the SREF's yet. Fixin to do that.

Just checked them out. Supercell composite gets up to 6 over northern GA/AL and into part of SC and the Sig Tor gets to 1 except near the SC coast where it gets up to 3 in spots.

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Larry, I worry about you wandering about the beach, eating ice cream, enjoying hot weather. How will you ever get in shape to nail another Sav. snow this season? T

I'll be ready, Tony. Ill be ready. Of course, another 5-10 years will probably have to pass before there will be another to nail lol. So, i'll just enjoy the beach and ice cream in the mean time.

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Well this warm weather is nice! Going to class is a joy again!

(Post below is strictly for the KCLT area)

I have studied the teleconnections and the ENSO in depth today. I also looked at other variables. I compared the current vales to historical values and found that this winter could be a mild one. Temperatures averaging ~50 during the midpoint of winter. I have't looked at precipitation yet, but I will soon.

-------

I hope to post a full winter forecast for ares such as KAVL, KRAH, and KCLT in the near future.

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Just what the people of Central/Northern Alabama want to see :axe:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0135 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH CNTRL MS AND CNTRL THROUGH NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160735Z - 160930Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING

FROM SRN-CNTRL MS TO CNTRL-NRN AL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE

TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

EARLY THIS MORNING A RATHER BROAD AND MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD

INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF MS AND AL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER

60S. SPECIAL 06Z BIRMINGHAM RAOB INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT

MODEST LAPSE RATES AND A SHALLOW STABLE AT THE SURFACE. AREAS OF

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM

SECTOR. A SWLY LLJ IS IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING OVER SRN MS

AND WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH AL THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN

EJECTING BUT DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...0-1 KM

HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND

POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO

BE TIME OF DAY AND TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE

THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A MODEST INFLUX OF

HIGHER THETA-E AIR MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND

UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME ROOTED CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO INGEST THE

HELICITY RICH AIR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...AND IF

STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...A WW WILL PROBABLY BE

NEEDED.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

201 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

MSC147-160830-

/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0158.000000T0000Z-111116T0830Z/

WALTHALL MS-

201 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CST FOR CENTRAL

WALTHALL COUNTY...

AT 157 AM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8

MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALEM...OR 14 MILES EAST OF MCCOMB...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE

INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER

PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE

BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE

BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

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Just what the people of Central/Northern Alabama want to see :axe:

Matches exactly with what has been placed for parts of MS and AL:

ww0887_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 887

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

225 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 225 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

DISCUSSION...SHORT BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO

PERSIST OVER WW...IN STRONG...SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL SWLY FLOW

BENEATH AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPR IMPULSE. SOME

STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED ACROSS AL

LATER THIS MORNING /WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS IN THE

850-700 MB LAYER/...ALONG WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE

AND POSSIBLY ASCENT. GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW LVL SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL

EXIST FOR INTERMITTENT LOW LVL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

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I've been enjoying the very comfy warm days, but today was humid here in Savannah.

It's been beauitiful the past couple days... unfortunately, I've been stuck inside at work the whole time :thumbsdown:

Yesterday's fog was kind of interesting, though; maybe it's just me, but I don't remember seeing fog that thick and that persistent for a while. At least at the airport, it only started to thin out around 1030 or so, and before that we could barely even see the buildings across the parking lot.

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The poor folks in west Alabama are going to get bombarded again by severe weather... The shear is a good 40 knots and Storm Relative shear is up over 300... These storms have already produced damage across Mississippi and Louisiana and continue to march to the northeast, closer to the better shear environment... Let's hope it doesn't get too bad for them out there!

I've been watching the trends here locally and I'm getting a little concerned about the possibility of a tornado or two for East Alabama/West Georgia. Only reason I'm concerned is because we could see enough clearing in the clouds to bump temperatures into the low to mid 80s. That would be ample enough to fire off a few strong storms! Our only saving grace is the surface low isn't forecast to strengthen all that much... Never the less, a few severe thunderstorms are likely and winds up to 70 mph will be experienced by some...

Those in the eastern Carolinas better watch the sky VERY carefully this evening... As I could see a few tornadoes spin up with the STP elevated some and enough heating, highs will get into the mid to upper 70s.

It'll be interesting to see the radar trends as we go into the early afternoon hours.

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Rain began 30 minutes ago here, and has been heavy at times. The 64 at 7 a.m. is the warmest in over six weeks for that time.

Sorry I missed your birthday Robert, but you deserve even a belated wish..... Looks like you might be getting some good rain as a present. I feel for our friends across the South who are having severe weather again. My neighbor's daughter was living in Joplin, Missouri, and lost everything. The family has moved here until their lives can be put back together, and they can return home.

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It's been beauitiful the past couple days... unfortunately, I've been stuck inside at work the whole time :thumbsdown:

Yesterday's fog was kind of interesting, though; maybe it's just me, but I don't remember seeing fog that thick and that persistent for a while. At least at the airport, it only started to thin out around 1030 or so, and before that we could barely even see the buildings across the parking lot.

Yes, that was the thickest I've seen in some time.

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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL

NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT

WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA

OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED

ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME

SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED

TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE

WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND

BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

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Not sure if you guys have been keeping an eye on the cell in Sumter/Marengo County in western Alabama, southwest of Alabama..... It's got quite the couplet and wouldn't be surprised to see a few areas of damage through here.

46K ft tops on that one.

... and now up 2dBZ in intensity since the last frame.

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Very nice rain amounts IMBY here in Dahlonega.

1.13" since midnight and 1.67" storm total since yesterday.:thumbsup:

Much better than expected totals here so far. Models haven't been too bullish on amounts as far south as me but have already had 1.05 inches. I've benefited from some modest training (narrow at that) so far and there is more heavy showers and even a few t-showers it would seem to my southwest heading my way. I've had peak rainfall rate of 2 inches per hour so far and quite a bit of 0.50 to 1 inch per hour rates.

Needless to say I'm very happy to see this because the drought here has been an under talked about story. Widespread areas with 8 to 10 inch or greater departures for the year. Interestingly, my local neighborhood is in getter shape than others but most of that fell early in the year and it's been very dry since. as I noted the other day, my ponds are way down, creeks are dry or barely running here on the property and local lake levels are way down. Lanier is 12 plus feet below full pool if I recall what I saw on channel 2 yesterday correctly and it looks about right. . Saw it yesterday and it reminded me of the condition it was in during the height of the last big drought we had. Many ramps, docks, etc are completely out of the water.

So I will take every drop I can get.

For those who don't have it already, You check out the yearly, monthly, etc precip totals and precip departures here

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

Between the wind and the rain, the beautiful fall foliage we have had is going bye bye for the most part. Constant shower of leaves falling at the moment with many trees becoming half way bare or worse. Hopefully though it will knock the remaining of these damn acorns of the trees.

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