GaWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I've been enjoying the very comfy warm days, but today was humid here in Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Do y'all think there is a chance for the mountains to turn over to snow before all of the moisture can exit on Wednesday night/Thursday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I've been enjoying the very comfy warm days, but today was humid here in Savannah. Larry, I worry about you wandering about the beach, eating ice cream, enjoying hot weather. How will you ever get in shape to nail another Sav. snow this season? 76.1 was the high today, after a 60.3 last night. Not such good sleeping weather anymore. I had to turn on the fans again today. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 81 deg imby today Warm here in the Upstate with a high of 72 and noticeably more humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Obviously the models are having a tremendously hard time with the flow right now, much more so than usual. Some days the ECMWF has a major ridge over us, other days the ridge is replaced by a trough or closed low, or some mix of zonal to amplified flow. The GFS even develops a rex block in Canada, northern US later on, but take both models very lightly for now. I still lean toward a flipping of the pattern at late month/1st week Dec. I certainly hope it happens, as it is a heck of a lot easier to make a forecast when that's in place instead of the screaming Pac. jet. Happy Birthday Robert! You shouldn't hide that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I'm going to dress up as a tube and go run around his backyard. More entertaining, at least, than waiting for cold and snow. You'd better YouTube it. Dress up like a Snowman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 As for the severe potential tomorrow, FFC's latest discussion says "the severe threat appears pretty significant" and GSP also mentioning it as well. Haven't had time to look at the SREF's yet. Fixin to do that. Just checked them out. Supercell composite gets up to 6 over northern GA/AL and into part of SC and the Sig Tor gets to 1 except near the SC coast where it gets up to 3 in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Happy Birthday Robert, now lets get that ole Happy Birthday Rain dance a going! Might even get an good ole rain training event! Happy Birthday Robert! You shouldn't hide that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Larry, I worry about you wandering about the beach, eating ice cream, enjoying hot weather. How will you ever get in shape to nail another Sav. snow this season? T I'll be ready, Tony. Ill be ready. Of course, another 5-10 years will probably have to pass before there will be another to nail lol. So, i'll just enjoy the beach and ice cream in the mean time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Well this warm weather is nice! Going to class is a joy again! (Post below is strictly for the KCLT area) I have studied the teleconnections and the ENSO in depth today. I also looked at other variables. I compared the current vales to historical values and found that this winter could be a mild one. Temperatures averaging ~50 during the midpoint of winter. I have't looked at precipitation yet, but I will soon. ------- I hope to post a full winter forecast for ares such as KAVL, KRAH, and KCLT in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 My take on the upcoming event: http://gwxmanblog.blogspot.com/2011/11/active-day-in-store-for-portions-of.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Just what the people of Central/Northern Alabama want to see MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH CNTRL MS AND CNTRL THROUGH NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 160735Z - 160930Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING FROM SRN-CNTRL MS TO CNTRL-NRN AL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH. EARLY THIS MORNING A RATHER BROAD AND MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF MS AND AL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SPECIAL 06Z BIRMINGHAM RAOB INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT MODEST LAPSE RATES AND A SHALLOW STABLE AT THE SURFACE. AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. A SWLY LLJ IS IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING OVER SRN MS AND WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH AL THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EJECTING BUT DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE TIME OF DAY AND TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A MODEST INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME ROOTED CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO INGEST THE HELICITY RICH AIR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...AND IF STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 201 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011 MSC147-160830- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0158.000000T0000Z-111116T0830Z/ WALTHALL MS- 201 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CST FOR CENTRAL WALTHALL COUNTY... AT 157 AM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALEM...OR 14 MILES EAST OF MCCOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Just what the people of Central/Northern Alabama want to see Matches exactly with what has been placed for parts of MS and AL: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 225 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...SHORT BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WW...IN STRONG...SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL SWLY FLOW BENEATH AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPR IMPULSE. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED ACROSS AL LATER THIS MORNING /WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER/...ALONG WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY ASCENT. GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW LVL SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR INTERMITTENT LOW LVL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevinhmd Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Some hope starting to appear more often on the 6Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I've been enjoying the very comfy warm days, but today was humid here in Savannah. It's been beauitiful the past couple days... unfortunately, I've been stuck inside at work the whole time Yesterday's fog was kind of interesting, though; maybe it's just me, but I don't remember seeing fog that thick and that persistent for a while. At least at the airport, it only started to thin out around 1030 or so, and before that we could barely even see the buildings across the parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Very nice rain amounts IMBY here in Dahlonega. 1.13" since midnight and 1.67" storm total since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Already had 0.52" since all of this started yesterday. Had a really intense but brief line come through a few minutes ago and had rain falling at 4.3"/hr. I missed the record high low temperature by a little more than 1 degree with my low being 62.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The poor folks in west Alabama are going to get bombarded again by severe weather... The shear is a good 40 knots and Storm Relative shear is up over 300... These storms have already produced damage across Mississippi and Louisiana and continue to march to the northeast, closer to the better shear environment... Let's hope it doesn't get too bad for them out there! I've been watching the trends here locally and I'm getting a little concerned about the possibility of a tornado or two for East Alabama/West Georgia. Only reason I'm concerned is because we could see enough clearing in the clouds to bump temperatures into the low to mid 80s. That would be ample enough to fire off a few strong storms! Our only saving grace is the surface low isn't forecast to strengthen all that much... Never the less, a few severe thunderstorms are likely and winds up to 70 mph will be experienced by some... Those in the eastern Carolinas better watch the sky VERY carefully this evening... As I could see a few tornadoes spin up with the STP elevated some and enough heating, highs will get into the mid to upper 70s. It'll be interesting to see the radar trends as we go into the early afternoon hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Nice returns overhead. Currently at 0.80" with the expectation to go over 1.5" when its all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Hoping for a 40-50 mph gust this afternoon to clean off the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Very nice rain amounts IMBY here in Dahlonega. 1.13" since midnight and 1.67" storm total since yesterday. 1.66 storm total here. Looks like Cumming was the sweet spot so far. 1.8 in Forsyth County since yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Rain began 30 minutes ago here, and has been heavy at times. The 64 at 7 a.m. is the warmest in over six weeks for that time. Sorry I missed your birthday Robert, but you deserve even a belated wish..... Looks like you might be getting some good rain as a present. I feel for our friends across the South who are having severe weather again. My neighbor's daughter was living in Joplin, Missouri, and lost everything. The family has moved here until their lives can be put back together, and they can return home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 1.66 storm total here. Looks like Cumming was the sweet spot so far. 1.8 in Forsyth County since yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 It's been beauitiful the past couple days... unfortunately, I've been stuck inside at work the whole time Yesterday's fog was kind of interesting, though; maybe it's just me, but I don't remember seeing fog that thick and that persistent for a while. At least at the airport, it only started to thin out around 1030 or so, and before that we could barely even see the buildings across the parking lot. Yes, that was the thickest I've seen in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Not sure if you guys have been keeping an eye on the cell in Sumter/Marengo County in western Alabama, southwest of Alabama..... It's got quite the couplet and wouldn't be surprised to see a few areas of damage through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Not sure if you guys have been keeping an eye on the cell in Sumter/Marengo County in western Alabama, southwest of Alabama..... It's got quite the couplet and wouldn't be surprised to see a few areas of damage through here. 46K ft tops on that one. ... and now up 2dBZ in intensity since the last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Let's get this show on the road.... Watch will be issued within the next hour or so for some of us as the line moves through Alabama... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2330.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Very nice rain amounts IMBY here in Dahlonega. 1.13" since midnight and 1.67" storm total since yesterday. Much better than expected totals here so far. Models haven't been too bullish on amounts as far south as me but have already had 1.05 inches. I've benefited from some modest training (narrow at that) so far and there is more heavy showers and even a few t-showers it would seem to my southwest heading my way. I've had peak rainfall rate of 2 inches per hour so far and quite a bit of 0.50 to 1 inch per hour rates. Needless to say I'm very happy to see this because the drought here has been an under talked about story. Widespread areas with 8 to 10 inch or greater departures for the year. Interestingly, my local neighborhood is in getter shape than others but most of that fell early in the year and it's been very dry since. as I noted the other day, my ponds are way down, creeks are dry or barely running here on the property and local lake levels are way down. Lanier is 12 plus feet below full pool if I recall what I saw on channel 2 yesterday correctly and it looks about right. . Saw it yesterday and it reminded me of the condition it was in during the height of the last big drought we had. Many ramps, docks, etc are completely out of the water. So I will take every drop I can get. For those who don't have it already, You check out the yearly, monthly, etc precip totals and precip departures here http://water.weather.gov/precip/ Between the wind and the rain, the beautiful fall foliage we have had is going bye bye for the most part. Constant shower of leaves falling at the moment with many trees becoming half way bare or worse. Hopefully though it will knock the remaining of these damn acorns of the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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