November Discussion

[pcbjr]

Week 4 2010 to week 4 2011.......very different

But then comparing Week 3 (the precursor week) of 2010 to Week 4 of 2011...a case could be made that the evolving pattern could be in the works...the two aren't perfect matches as the warm anomalies ( I dont have the 500 mb anomalies in front of me for this year just the 850s) extend much farther into Greenland from the south central US in 2010 but there are some decent similarities...it could be getting there...we will have to wait and see...

Thanks for the clarification!

[Solak]

RAH has really backed down on the severe possibilities for Wednesday.

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO EDGE CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BLOCKING FEATURE OF THE UPPER HIGH HAS CAUSED MODEL GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT

OF THE SURFACE FRONT SUCH THAT THIS FEATURE IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT

(LAST FRIDAY...IT APPEARED THAT THE FRONT WOULD CROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT).

MODEL HANDLE SIMILARLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING NW MEXICO AT 18Z.

THIS FEATURE PROJECTED TO SHEAR APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE U.S.

WEAK PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO STREAK ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

WHILE CANNOT RULE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED T-STORM THAT MAY EXHIBIT SOME ROTATION OVER OUR FAR

EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST

AT THIS TIME AS FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE WEAK (AT BEST).

[WxKnurd]

Not sure if this is a good upstream report for you guys, but thought I'd throw it out there. I am currently in Indiana just across the river from Louisville and had a pretty big line of storms roll through: 50+ mph winds, heavy rain falling in sheets and pea-sized hail. Haven't kept up with the current setup that caused this, but could be a good indicator for how the models handled severe input up here for today and how that might translate back home later in the week.

[Carvers Gap]

Odds of snow in December are always low in this part of the country, last couple of years were unusual, and even if we get into colder Winters than we had in the 80s and 90's, the odds are probably still low that most Decembers won't be "snowy" in the Southeast. However, its way too early to call for a warm December. Often, we switch patterns late in November or early December, but only time will tell if it locks in or how the pattern will alternate. Also, a week ago the models were painting a pretty stout ridge over the SE about now and the first part of the week, but the reality is that its being tempered down. Have you noticed each run, the Southeast ridge gets pushed out yet again? Its been happening a solid week now. Eventually, we will warm up. The next few days do look to warm up some, but for n. Al, Ga, Tn and the Carolinas the cold comes right back in following the front on Thursday, the one the models did NOT have a few days ago..yet the pattern supported. I think it will continue to play out this way. The high heights now in eastern Canada and vortex near Hudson Bay will keep on squelching the SE ridge mostly , and as runs continue, the models explicitly catch on to that. I wouldn't look at the models and expect them to be gospel for sure. We continue to have a pattern in which the models are playing catch up to reality. Once we settle deeper into Winter later next month the models will be much better at showing things but for now, you have to read between the lines.

Foothills, thanks for the reply. I hope we get some good winter fun. I do think, ultimately, that our winters are changing for the better. I think we are heading, like you, into a period where there are more cold winters than warm. I'm hoping this isn't one of those warm winters. I think after this winter, we finally break out and hit a good stretch of truly outstanding patterns. Anyway, good write-up.

[Carvers Gap]

Thanks for the clarification!

I agree. Nice to hear more about the Euro weeklies for sure as I don't have access to those.

[WidreMann]

Today's 12z EC nearly squashes the SE ridge at the end of the run. Good news.

It'll be back. The Pacific is awful. More than awful, it's just strange. I guess it's been a while since I've seen that much troughiness and vortex-mania over there.

[griteater]

From wxrisk.com....

"By day 10 the operational European and the European ensemble show a dual center pattern with one PV over central Siberia and the other one located over northwest Canada –perhaps in the Yukon. The PV over the Yukon is clearly was stronger on most of the model data with its value below 500 DM . The Teleconnections from this intense vortex over far Northwest North America of course supports a strong southeast U.S. to ridge so all of the Model data here apears to be very consistent and meteorologically sound.

In addition if you take a look at the 500 MB height lines over the north Pacific you will see that the extremely strong central north Pacific positive height anomaly — the Ridge at 588dm– is located surprisingly close to the 498 dm very strong and negative height anomaly over the Yukon. This of course is causing the Pacific jet to become squeezed causing ncreased velocities to a extremely powerful 180 knots on the 0z GFS at 192 hrs. And having the jet streak slam into the West coast / br Columbia ensures the mean trough stays on the West coast and the the cold air building Canada cannot possiblly drop south of the US Canada Border .

Clearly the impediment in terms of getting the pattern to turn significantly colder is the extremely intense polar vortex over the Yukon. This fat pig has got to MOVE or slide southeast into north central Canada. As long as that feature is in that part of the western hemisphere the pattern is absolutely no chance of changing. This position for a PV has long been know as the Kiss of death if one is forecasting any sort of sustained colder outbreak were pattern developing over the eastern half of North America. Of course there have been plenty of winters where the vortex up there in northwest Canada in November has moved to the southeast which ends up altering the entire pattern. But as long as that feature is there and the 180 knot long jet streak …. the central and eastern CONUS stays Mild."

[dsaur]

I'm not so sure we get a lot of rain this week. FFC is saying 0.10" for Central GA, which is cutting it awfully close to Metro Atlanta. Could be a sharp cutoff in the precip with a lot more rain in extreme NW GA compared to the rest of the state. It's weird how the same areas that don't need the rain seem to keep getting rain while areas in a bad drought keep getting left out.

We've been getting the sitty end of the stick down here for years now. Most of these systems are loaded to the north, and just drag a thin, scattered shower front thru us as an after thought. My last two events have beaten my expectations though, so I have some hope for tomorrow and Wed., though I still figure Atl. north will do a good deal better as the energy pulls north. We need to get a low coming by below us to really cash in.

Not to worry, when the torch folks are conjuring up hits N. Atl. and going north this winter, all the good times will be down here in the cold and sleet The scale wants to balance so things look good for us this winter, lol. T

[CandymanColumbusGA]

It was a warm one yesterday! We managed to hit 80 degrees with a MOSTLY cloudy sky!

That front to our north, entering Tennessee as we speak, will take its sweet old time to move through. I have it moving through Columbus tomorrow night, but not before we see a few thunderstorms :mapstorm:We haven't seen those in over a month, October 13th was the last time! There looks to be enough instability, at least tomorrow afternoon, to fire off a few stronger storms. There will be plenty of shear, as has been talked about by others for a while now. The bigger stickler could be the amount of CAPE. It's looking like we'll see just enough CAPE for the storms to tap into the available shear to produce some severe thunderstorms across AL & GA. These storms will produce more wind than anything, though don't be surprised to hear a few pings of hail bouncing off the ground.

It'll be interesting to see how the two areas of rain impacts east central Alabama/West Central Georgia. There will be one area LATE tonight, associated with the slug of moisture coming off the Gulf. THEN the line of showers and storms associated with the fronts moves in tomorrow afternoon. The timing could impact the amount of CAPE, as mentioned above. Right now, I'd say the better chance for stronger storms will be just off to the east, maybe slightly north, of Columbus, extending into central South Carolina.

Here's to some actual RAIN to talk about

[msuwx]

I am enjoying the mild stretches of weather we have had at times, mixed in with the pretty decent little shots of cold air. Most sites in the region are still in the -2 to -3 degree range for the month relative to average, through yesterday. That will go up some after today and tomorrow obviously.

I love cold and snow as much as anybody, but my thoughts are....why 'waste' a cold/ stormy pattern in November or early December when it will be tough to do much 'good' for many in the region?

No sign of a pattern change at this point, but that's not a bad thing to me. Now, if we are sitting here around Christmas time and there is still no sign of a change, well maybe then we have a problem.

[buckeyefan1]

I would enjoy a rumble of thunder or two

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1259 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

SOUTHEAST CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH -- CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE

START OF THE PERIOD -- IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE STEADILY EWD...WITH THE

STRONGEST FLOW AROUND THE ERN FRINGE OF THE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO

THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM THE

MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO TX WILL PROGRESS SEWD/SWD WITH TIME

IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE

PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED LARGELY OFF THE ATLANTIC

AND GULF COASTS...LINGERING ONLY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS/SRN

GA/THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...THE SOUTHEAST...

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BUT GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL

RESULT IN ONLY MODEST WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS FORCED BY THE SURFACE FRONT TO CONTINUE ADVANCING

ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AIDED BY STRONG WSWLY FLOW

ALOFT...LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL -- THUS

WARRANTING SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE. STORMS SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY

OFFSHORE...THOUGH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE

COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SRN GA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

[Brick Tamland]

I'm a little worried about the threat of severe weather around here tomorrow. It seems we always have a round of tornadoes every year in NC during the last half of November.

[Isopycnic]

I'm a little worried about the threat of severe weather around here tomorrow. It seems we always have a round of tornadoes every year in NC during the last half of November.

are you hiding in the hallway yet?

[WhiteoutWX]

are you hiding in the hallway yet?

GSP didn't seem too concerned about the tornado threat.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT LACK OF CURVATURE IN HODOGRAPHS ISINDICATIVE OF A LOW TORNADO THREAT.

[LithiaWx]

Decent Rain event on tap for some...

12Z NAM

6Z GFS

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Areas of north Alabama and northwest Georgia are going to get a good soaking from this system... They're already seeing a few light showers across Birmingham and points northwest... This lines up nicely where they are seeing the highest PWats and the moist tongue @ 700 mb, it really looks like one there... haha! (SPC Mesoscale Analysis).

Those of us to the southeast of Birmingham and Atlanta shouldn't be expecting much out of this system. In fact, the more and more I look at it, the less and less rain I'm finding for our area . That's not to say we won't see ANYTHING, because we certainly will! Just don't expect the kind of soaker they are going to get across TN, western NC, extreme western SC, NW GA, N AL.

I do expect a line of showers and storms to develop tomorrow afternoon along the frontal boundary, but even that has slowed down with the past few models runs. The delayed timing will help out with the severe weather aspect of the system (lessen the chances) for those of us in western GA and perhaps up to the Macon area... Areas to the northeast should be prepared to see at least a few strong storms with wind being the primary concern...

[WidreMann]

are you hiding in the hallway yet?

I'm going to dress up as a tube and go run around his backyard. More entertaining, at least, than waiting for cold and snow.

[dsaur]

Areas of north Alabama and northwest Georgia are going to get a good soaking from this system... They're already seeing a few light showers across Birmingham and points northwest... This lines up nicely where they are seeing the highest PWats and the moist tongue @ 700 mb, it really looks like one there... haha! (SPC Mesoscale Analysis).

Those of us to the southeast of Birmingham and Atlanta shouldn't be expecting much out of this system. In fact, the more and more I look at it, the less and less rain I'm finding for our area . That's not to say we won't see ANYTHING, because we certainly will! Just don't expect the kind of soaker they are going to get across TN, western NC, extreme western SC, NW GA, N AL.

I do expect a line of showers and storms to develop tomorrow afternoon along the frontal boundary, but even that has slowed down with the past few models runs. The delayed timing will help out with the severe weather aspect of the system (lessen the chances) for those of us in western GA and perhaps up to the Macon area... Areas to the northeast should be prepared to see at least a few strong storms with wind being the primary concern...

I'm glad to see the buildup around Houston, and down into the gulf. Hope it still has a fat tail tomorrow.

I'm still pulling for you to see some hail. No reason a fall boomer can't do it T

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I'm glad to see the buildup around Houston, and down into the gulf. Hope it still has a fat tail tomorrow.

I'm still pulling for you to see some hail. No reason a fall boomer can't do it T

I would if I never had to be in the studio covering it!!! hahaha! It's all good though, I love what I do!

Anyway, the RPM we use, produced by WSI, has a little cluster moving through east central Alabama around midnight.

It has the line relatively weak for tomorrow afternoon, around 2-3 locally, before shifting east... The interesting thing about the latest run is it develops the line in the Gulf quite a bit, thus shutting off the moisture flow into SW GA and much of south central GA.... I'm hoping this run is wrong, but the potential is certainly there for us to see the line dry up because of the stronger storms in the Gulf....

I really need to start looking a little further out so I don't feel like I'm repeating what the other, more experienced mets have said... haha

I just hope we don't hit a record HIGH today!!!! We're already up to 74, with the record of 83 well within reach (considering Albany is already up to 82.... haha)

[LithiaWx]

The 12Z GFS shows some glimmers of hope to someone who is seeking some light at the end of a warm tunnel....

Near the end of the run the NAO shows signs of going negative, the AO goes negative and the PNA moves to neutral territory. Right now imo the NAO modeled signal is not strong enough to dominate but who knows if this is the first glimmers of a pattern change to a -NAO dominated pattern or not.

[WeatherNC]

The interesting thing about the latest run is it develops the line in the Gulf quite a bit, thus shutting off the moisture flow into SW GA and much of south central GA.... I'm hoping this run is wrong, but the potential is certainly there for us to see the line dry up because of the stronger storms in the Gulf....

I am starting to become concerned about this, something around here we like to refer to as the Carolina split; upstream moisture transport is cut off vc Gulf Coast Impossible to predict until convection forms and depending on orientation, can either rob or enhance QPF downstream. The global and nam have a relative min extending from southern MS up through the southern half of GA/SC, into central NC. Unsure if this is the reason why though, as they do not show much QPF along the central and eastern Gulf coast, but rather weaker impulses traversing the front rather then a stronger more consolidated wave as advertised yesterday by the GFS.

SPC updated the day 2 outlook, slgt hatch has been extended to the north and west slightly, although the wording would indicate a "subdued" event. The 9z SREF does have some sig tornado parameters of 2 for the Coastal Plain around midnight Thursday. There are also some supercell composites showing up for the northern half of GA into SC and the eastern half of NC between noon and 9pm tomorrow.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1114 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED AND WED EVE ACROSS PARTS OF

THE ERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN

MORE OR LESS ZONAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BROADLY CYCLONIC

FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND

EASTERN STATES...ALTHOUGH SOME SHARPENING OF UPPER TROUGHING MAY

OCCUR AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS FROM THE NORTHERN

ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LATTER FEATURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WAVE

DEVELOPMENT ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN

STATES...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...WITH THE PRIMARY

SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.

...EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH

EMERGING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...A SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST

ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ALONG AND SOUTH

OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER... MID-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK...AND THIS PROBABLY WILL

LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION EVEN WITH SUBSTANTIVE DAYTIME

HEATING. THIS LIMITATION...COUPLED WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE

DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY

REMAIN SUBDUED. EVEN SO...GIVEN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATIONS OF

STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...THERE

MAY BE ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS PRIMARILY IS EXPECTED TO BE

CONFINED TO THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE WAVE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS

MIDDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE

CAROLINAS BY THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR AT

LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES ...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING

WIND GUSTS.

Often times it is helpful to keep an eye on how the day 1 sglt risk performs in TX, LA & AL, if it is under than that will usually translate into day 2 regarding these late season marginal events, and vice versa...

[FoothillsNC]

Obviously the models are having a tremendously hard time with the flow right now, much more so than usual. Some days the ECMWF has a major ridge over us, other days the ridge is replaced by a trough or closed low, or some mix of zonal to amplified flow. The GFS even develops a rex block in Canada, northern US later on, but take both models very lightly for now. I still lean toward a flipping of the pattern at late month/1st week Dec. I certainly hope it happens, as it is a heck of a lot easier to make a forecast when that's in place instead of the screaming Pac. jet.

[DaculaWeather]

I just noticed that the latest AFD from Birmingham is slowing down the system now.

[dsaur]

I would if I never had to be in the studio covering it!!! hahaha! It's all good though, I love what I do!

Anyway, the RPM we use, produced by WSI, has a little cluster moving through east central Alabama around midnight.

It has the line relatively weak for tomorrow afternoon, around 2-3 locally, before shifting east... The interesting thing about the latest run is it develops the line in the Gulf quite a bit, thus shutting off the moisture flow into SW GA and much of south central GA.... I'm hoping this run is wrong, but the potential is certainly there for us to see the line dry up because of the stronger storms in the Gulf....

I really need to start looking a little further out so I don't feel like I'm repeating what the other, more experienced mets have said... haha

I just hope we don't hit a record HIGH today!!!! We're already up to 74, with the record of 83 well within reach (considering Albany is already up to 82.... haha)

I'm at 76 at 3pm. Yesterday, I hit 77.5. Actually feels a lot hotter, as it does after being relatively cooler.

I always enjoy reading your thoughts!! Maybe not the one about the energy in the gulf robbing us of our good rains....but, I'd much rather see an energy buildup in Texas and the gulf, with a slow moving system, and take my chances with the big storms in the gulf robbing us. We see it in winter snows, but I'll always be happy with the chance it could lead to greater amounts, if things go right, instead of the just the sparse tail end of the line, giving us a drive by shower as the energy pulls north. I'm already used to getting less T

[DaculaWeather]

I hit 72.9 at 1:19 but have fallen slightly since then. Nice and breezy outside right now but it feels great!

I hate hearing about how we might get robbed, FFC's original thinking was that the greatest rainfall was going to be north of a Carrolton to Gainesville line. Ought to be interesting.

[Brick Tamland]

are you hiding in the hallway yet?

No, I get in the bathtub.

[buckeyefan1]

81 deg imby today

[HKY_WX]

Some consistency starting to show up on the gfs ENS for -NAO by day 10. We'll see.

[tnweathernut]

Some consistency starting to show up on the gfs ENS for -NAO by day 10. We'll see.

anything indicating the pac jet turns off the firehose? if not, it might not matter all that much, granted it's only mid November.

[Gastonwxman]

Today's weather would surely make you think that it's mid-Spring and not late Fall. Up to 72 for a high with a light breeze but once again, decked in the clouds with few breaks in between. However, I don't mind this a bit as it feels really nice out there. Can't beat this kind of weather before Winter arrives.