November Discussion

[Isopycnic]

What's up with WRAL's graphics? Is that a tornado or lightning for Wednesday?

[MountainMarvel]

I was amazed how much snow had been made at Sugar Mountain. There were alot of people skiing and boarding today. It was 47 degrees, with no wind. Perfect weather to warm up for the season.

[Mr Bob]

Thought this was an interesting post from Isotherm in the snow cover thread on the main page...

"I'm of the opinion that the anomalous high latitude blocking of the past two cold seasons was due largely to the stratospheric/tropospheric response to extended low geomagnetic activity. Heading into mid November this year, geomagnetic indicators have fallen off the cliff as K indices and Ap are barely detectable right now. Given that hasn't changed from the last 2 years, I believe it's not a question of if the blocking will occur but when. This year the -NAO should initiate about a month later."

While there are lots of indicators that are very similar to last fall, the big thing is the NAO and it IS different than the last two years....much less negative and tending towards positive so far...while we had a nice drop in August suggesting we make get a couple of weeks of it, the prolonged -NAO is not quite so certain this winter...Obviously it is not easy to predict far in advance...I just worry that this winter is going to be different and on the warmer side of average. As I said before, I dont do much long range forecasting so take it with a boulder of salt....

[dsaur]

First freeze was the other night, and bang, all the trees holding great color had their leaves just jump off. From 95% to bare now. Pretty interesting. Looking more like winter now on a lot of trees. Expect it to be cold again in a few days. Typical fall roller coaster. Season seems to be moving on about normal down here. I would guess I'd get a raw Tday, a mild Christmas day, and brutal cold at New Years, unless Coldrain has more tricks to spring T

[Jon]

What's up with WRAL's graphics? Is that a tornado or lightning for Wednesday?

Their graphics are terrible now...I don't know what they were thinking. Each day looks like a rain gauge but it's not, it's just a temperature gauge. It would be cool if it said a % of rain probability below the temp, then the graphics would make some sense.

[DaculaWeather]

Their graphics are terrible now...I don't know what they were thinking. Each day looks like a rain gauge but it's not, it's just a temperature gauge. It would be cool if it said a % of rain probability below the temp, then the graphics would make some sense.

LOL! Looks like a big tube of weather. How dumb.

[DaculaWeather]

Interesting map this morning...

[FoothillsNC]

Another day, another vastly different run of the ECMWF. Funny how the Southeast ridge keeps disappearing or gets totally squashed. All the wavelengths from Japan to the eastern US are totally different in location and strength from the previous run. The point is, the stream has a tendency to keep sending fronts through the Eastern states pretty regularly, rather than all dig out west and leave us in profound warmth as many folks keep waiting on to happen.

yesterdays run:

Todays valid nearly same time:

[valkhorn]

Another day, another vastly different run of the ECMWF. Funny how the Southeast ridge keeps disappearing or gets totally squashed. All the wavelengths from Japan to the eastern US are totally different in location and strength from the previous run. The point is, the stream has a tendency to keep sending fronts through the Eastern states pretty regularly, rather than all dig out west and leave us in profound warmth as many folks keep waiting on to happen.

yesterdays run:

Todays valid nearly same time:

My take on the models when this happens is that it's just not clear on a pattern change, but it's sensing volatility. Things will change soon enough. This kind of pattern doesn't hold forever.

[Lookout]

While there are lots of indicators that are very similar to last fall, the big thing is the NAO and it IS different than the last two years....much less negative and tending towards positive so far...while we had a nice drop in August suggesting we make get a couple of weeks of it, the prolonged -NAO is not quite so certain this winter...Obviously it is not easy to predict far in advance...I just worry that this winter is going to be different and on the warmer side of average. As I said before, I dont do much long range forecasting so take it with a boulder of salt....

That's because you actually are smart enough not to . Everyone knows how I feel about long range forecasting.

It's extremely hard for me to believe we will have it so good, or nearly as good, as the past several winters. A part of me, more than I like, just has a gut feeling we are going to pay for the last few winters with warmth and more warmth. Not very scientific reasoning I know but for the first time in quite a while, I am pretty pessimistic regarding this winter. I hope this feeling is wrong.

First freeze was the other night, and bang, all the trees holding great color had their leaves just jump off. From 95% to bare now. Pretty interesting. Looking more like winter now on a lot of trees. Expect it to be cold again in a few days. Typical fall roller coaster. Season seems to be moving on about normal down here. I would guess I'd get a raw Tday, a mild Christmas day, and brutal cold at New Years, unless Coldrain has more tricks to spring T

Yeah the leaves are beautiful right now. I don't keep track really of which years are better than others so maybe I'm wrong, but this year seems like one of the best I can remember in recent years. I absolutely love days like today where it's cloudy with this type of color. It just seems so much more striking than on a sunny day.

Regardless, I know this year there has never been so many acorns. Ever. I have no idea what this means, if anything, but there has been so many that the ground has been covered with them even in the woods and as many know, acorns in large numbers don't normally last long in the woods due to wildlife eating them up. But this year there has been so many that for a few weeks now the acorns from white oaks, red oaks, and water oaks have covered the ground. I don't think my water oaks in my yard will ever stop dropping them. They have been dropping non stop for a damn month or so now. Just thousands upon thousands of them on the ground. It's absolutely unreal, and quite annoying actually. Just a constant barrage hitting the metal roof every day and night for weeks is aggravating to say the least.

I know one thing, I desperately need some rain. Was cutting wood saturday and it has been so dry that I drove through where my sediment pond is supposed to be with absolutely no problems to cut up some 2 pines that had fallen into it. It is absolutely bone dry and the creek that is supposed to flow through it doesn't look like it has ran any since last winter/early spring. The other two lakes are several feet below full pool...which is terrible considering the deepest points in both lakes are only around 8 or 9 feet. Sure hope we manage to get something out of this next system because right now lakes, creeks, or what's left of them, are pathetic right now.

[GaWx]

First freeze was the other night, and bang, all the trees holding great color had their leaves just jump off. From 95% to bare now. Pretty interesting. Looking more like winter now on a lot of trees. Expect it to be cold again in a few days. Typical fall roller coaster. Season seems to be moving on about normal down here. I would guess I'd get a raw Tday, a mild Christmas day, and brutal cold at New Years, unless Coldrain has more tricks to spring T

SAV also had its first 32, which is close to two weeks early. Average is near 11/25. Beautiful fall wx this weekend here. Went to the beach (got me some ice cream there) and to a downtown art exhibit yesterday.

[WeatherNC]

RAH slowly increasing the wording regarding convective potential during the overnight on Tues... Wednesday could also have some strong storms, although shear vectors support a linear convective mode then. GFS shows a period of convective potential for RDU between 1am and 6am Wednesday morning, and a second potential for both RDU and PGV Wednesday evening from about 7 - midnight. GFS and Euro show clearing skies in the Coastal Plain along and east of 95 during the day on Wednesday, 25-35% cloud cover with temps pushing 80 in the afternoon. SB cape values approaching 750j/kg as the front comes through should be enough to light of a couple more robust cells within it.

TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING: THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA...WHICH WILL

UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION AS IT IS STEERED ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF A

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (592 DM AT H5) CENTERED INVOF THE

BAHAMAS...WILL TRACK ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF

THIS FEATURE SHOULD OCCUR INVOF A PRECEDING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE

DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA. INDEED THE NWP

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION

WILL HOLD TO OUR NW UNTIL WED AFTERNOON...AND THEREBY MITIGATE WHAT

24 HOURS AGO THEY INDICATED COULD BE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF

PRECEDING...WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY SEVERE

WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (20-50 M/12HR) AND JET ENTRANCE FORCING

ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING WAVE...AND THE ACCOMPANYING LOW

LEVEL ACCELERATION MANIFEST AS A STRONG WARM AND MOIST AIR

ADVECTION-BEARING 40-50 KT LLJ...WILL PROVIDE QG FORCING FOR ASCENT

AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AMIDST A VERY WEAKLY BUOYANT WARM

SECTOR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION

STANDPOINT...AM NOT READY TO ABANDON A LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING

THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER JUST YET.

IN FACT...THE VERY LATEST GUIDANCE (00-06Z/14TH) INDICATES A GROWING

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR IN

CHARACTER (PROVIDED PROJECTED 300-600 J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED)...TO

DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT TUE. THIS

INCLUDES AREAS AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN RAH COASTAL PLAIN FROM

NEAR CLINTON TO GOLDSBORO TO TARBORO...AND THE HWO WAS SEGMENTED FOR

AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATE NIGHT-EARLY

MORNING CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITY.

[LithiaWx]

NWS forecast 69 today, I'm already at 72 at 12:55PM and Hartsfield is already at 74. What a warm day today, very torch like....

[DaculaWeather]

I'm at .... well, see below. And above my 69 forecast high. It's still rising about 2.5 deg/hr.

[Isopycnic]

74.8 currently IMBY

[tnweathernut]

71 and loving it here in the Tricities of TN. Enjoy the day all,

[WeatherNC]

Comparison of the 12z American guidance for the RN event this week... GFS went kind of nuts on this run, >3/4" amounts for northern parts of GA, half of SC, and almost all of NC. NAM is more tame and in some places, specifically the southern foothills, only 1/10 of what the GFS is advertising. Both models are however picking up on a heavier axis that runs from about CLT up through ORF. The Global is keying in on a more robust disturbance traversing the front compared to the NAM. The heavier axis seen on both is in response to this wave, and located on the north side of its track.

[DaculaWeather]

FFC is calling for up to two inches here.

[toxictwister00]

NWS forecast 69 today, I'm already at 72 at 12:55PM and Hartsfield is already at 74. What a warm day today, very torch like....

Very much indeed, it's 77 there now. That's getting very close to a record high of 80 today. I doubt it will get there with the increasing clouds and the sun setting in just a couple of hours, but then again it's a lot warmer than I anticipated given the thick cloud cover this morning before the sun peeked through around noon.

[FoothillsNC]

Almost 70 here today (69).

The rain looks like a pretty good event. A surface wave of low pressure develops in Ms and travels to ATL AHN region by 60 hours. The areas just to the north of the low will do well , probably up to 1.5", looks like near the 85 corridor, but anywhere between 20 and 85 and 40 will do ok I think

[LithiaWx]

Wow the global models look like sh** if you like snow and cold. We get the trio of +AO, +NAO and -PNA that's going to stick around for some time. I can't find much on the models today that give me any hope of a change soon, ugly, ugly, ugly.....for now.

[WeatherNC]

Wow the global models look like sh** if you like snow and cold. We get the trio of +AO, +NAO and -PNA that's going to stick around for some time. I can't find much on the models today that give me any hope of a change soon, ugly, ugly, ugly.....for now.

And just when I thought the ECMWF was coming around at 240 Trying to focus on the positive, looking forward to an inch of RN, maybe less... I have not watered the bulbs planted in late Oct so any liquid received in that regard is a win. And more importantly the clover are loving the warmth today, only thing better then warm ups in Nov for clover growth is warm ups with RN. If this keeps up I may see that rare late season semi-bloom, where a couple of the legumes rise a head and attempt to flower. The mid-week event does have the potential to be one of our better RN-makers this fall for the SE as a whole. 18z NAM starting to come around to the GFS, and while the 12z Euro sideswipes my area, QPF looks rather potent for N GA, central SC, and central NC, splitting the difference between the 12z American guidance. All of TN could do very well out of this, specifically the western parts, likely the local max winner.

[Gastonwxman]

Touched 70 for today. Nice afternoon despite the occasional wind gusting up to around 25mph. I like our rain chances across a good portion of the Southeast. I think some of us could locally get up to about 2 inches assuming the heaviest of bands set up correctly. Good southerly flow enriched with Gulf moisture with what still appears to be healthy shear-weak cape scenario setting up. It still appears a bit iffy regarding any strong/severe thunderstorms firing, but I say a few folks could get in on some additional action given correct timing and such. Should make for an interesting day during Wednesday.

[LithiaWx]

And just when I thought the ECMWF was coming around at 240 Trying to focus on the positive, looking forward to an inch of RN, maybe less... I have not watered the bulbs planted in late Oct so any liquid received in that regard is a win. And more importantly the clover are loving the warmth today, only thing better then warm ups in Nov for clover growth is warm ups with RN. If this keeps up I may see that rare late season semi-bloom, where a couple of the legumes rise a head and attempt to flower. The mid-week event does have the potential to be one of our better RN-makers this fall for the SE as a whole. 18z NAM starting to come around to the GFS, and while the 12z Euro sideswipes my area, QPF looks rather potent for N GA, central SC, and central NC, splitting the difference between the 12z American guidance. All of TN could do very well out of this, specifically the western parts, likely the local max winner.

The rain event does look promising, I do like that quite a bit. As for the Global models, I just want some hope for crying out loud.

[jrips27]

The rain event does look promising, I do like that quite a bit. As for the Global models, I just want some hope for crying out loud.

Like WeatherNC said, lets enjoy this rain event and then look further down the road. I'll take my inch and then worry about the pattern.

[BullCityWx]

Today's 12z EC nearly squashes the SE ridge at the end of the run. Good news.

[Mr Bob]

We pulled the Euro weeklies from 11/11/10 just for giggles...It was about a week late with the cold outbreak (week 4 chart) though it clearly had it and the inferred classic -NAO. ....the pattern on the 11/10/11 weeklies at week 4 could not be much more different than last year with widespread warmth across the country. But if you want hope for cold.....week 4 on this last week's run looks somewhat similar to week 3 on last years run perhaps a little slower than last year....so just maybe we are a week or two behind....(if, of course, you want to believe a long range model!)

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I'm not so sure we get a lot of rain this week. FFC is saying 0.10" for Central GA, which is cutting it awfully close to Metro Atlanta. Could be a sharp cutoff in the precip with a lot more rain in extreme NW GA compared to the rest of the state. It's weird how the same areas that don't need the rain seem to keep getting rain while areas in a bad drought keep getting left out.

[pcbjr]

Mr. Bob,

Pardon the brain freeze here (been a long day in Court) - you say: the pattern on the 11/10/11 weeklies at week 4 could not be much more different than last year with widespread warmth across the country - do you mean the 11/10/11 weeklies at week are 180º or so different than last year, or that they are similar?

Thanks for any clarification, as with it I can put my nimble mind to rest ...

[Mr Bob]

Mr. Bob,

Pardon the brain freeze here (been a long day in Court) - you say: the pattern on the 11/10/11 weeklies at week 4 could not be much more different than last year with widespread warmth across the country - do you mean the 11/10/11 weeklies at week are 180º or so different than last year, or that they are similar?

Thanks for any clarification, as with it I can put my nimble mind to rest ...

Week 4 2010 to week 4 2011.......very different

But then comparing Week 3 (the precursor week) of 2010 to Week 4 of 2011...a case could be made that the evolving pattern could be in the works...the two aren't perfect matches as the warm anomalies ( I dont have the 500 mb anomalies in front of me for this year just the 850s) extend much farther into Greenland from the south central US in 2010 but there are some decent similarities...it could be getting there...we will have to wait and see...