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November Discussion


DaculaWeather

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I had 29's last night. .4 and .5, and one 30.5, so I didn't beat the night before by more than a few tenths. I did get there quicker though :)

Hoping the rain will over perform again here.

Over your way it is beginning to look like Lookout dragged his rain shield east this time, rather than over me, like before :)

I'd love to see Robert's cad set up and get us all some good, cold drizzle. Tony

36 for this mornings low and goofy wants to up the precip chances for mby for mid week. So far no mention of thunder in the forecast but those to my west might hear a rumble or two. :)

Good info. I didn't know. Thanks.

Ok, Key West cancel. Spent the day working outside and the warm up and strong sw winds were impressive. I enjoy changeups a lot, so I have to stay somewhere around here. I think the ideal changeable place, with about everything weather can throw at you would be in western NC, up to western or central/nw Virginia, east or south West Virginia, without having too hot of Summers, too cold of Winters, and having about every weather event possible and pretty common. Snowstorms, icestorms, strong pop up Summer storms, heavy rain events, high wind events and just plain nice weather for long periods. All common in occurrence about every year. Get much further north and its too cold, too cloudy and too short of daylight in Winter. Further south and you lose plentiful Winter storms (but gain trop. systems). I agree the Keys is a place for retirement and hurricanes.

:wub: This would be my preference for the perfect place to live in the eastern half of the US :sun:

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I was just about to reseach that regarding last year's November. Seems quite similar regarding the warm wx and then come December the big switch occurred.

Yep. Remember this?

post-38-0-51063200-1321206439.gif

It was about the first week of December we started to see the models catch on to a building enormous block in Greenland. It's still shocking to look at that on the charts, and it verified. To put it in perspective, the Southeast has its heatwaves in July and August with heights around 588 or 594dm so to see a 576 way up there at Greenland and that large is extremely rare. I never found out if that's the heighest heights on record there, but if not its bound to be close. There was some pretty warm sst anomalies around Greenland that probably helped fuel it.

post-38-0-55750400-1321206673.gif

post-38-0-09490600-1321206713.gif

Right now the sst are a little lower than last year, but generally above normal in eastern Canada and Hudson Bay. So somewhere between Hudson Bay Baffin Island to Newfoundland or Greenland could see the next major block.

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We may have to watch the potential for some strong to possibly severe weather during the mid-week period (particularly Wednesday). There is some indication that the timing of the next system arrives in a way that would allow conditions favorable for thunderstorm development, which just happens to be during the afternoon hours. Looks to be a high shear-low cape kind of deal. It's a 50/50 chance that it goes either way: We either get the best dynamics to arrive at the right time and end up with some thunderstorms or they come through during the early part of Wednesday and therefore reduces the threat. Could make for an interesting week if it sets up correctly.

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66 is the forecasted high today for Winston Salem, it is 57 right now

Same here. Weather service went with mid 60's here but its 58 now. I think we'll see this a few times again this week. Looks pretty hard to get to 70 west of INT CLT GSP line until Wednesday probably unless we break out into a good deal of sunshine, which looks unlikely. Another hard freeze coming Friday morning with mid to upper 20's your area. What is your forecast low?

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Same here. Weather service went with mid 60's here but its 58 now. I think we'll see this a few times again this week. Looks pretty hard to get to 70 west of INT CLT GSP line until Wednesday probably unless we break out into a good deal of sunshine, which looks unlikely. Another hard freeze coming Friday morning with mid to upper 20's your area. What is your forecast low?

Likewise as well. Only up to 58. I think the sun only managed to come out one time and that was earlier today before the cloud deck stayed in place for the rest of the afternoon. It looked like as if things would be clear for today since the clouds that were present broke overnight and most of the sky was completely visible but from satellite imagery earlier today, the clouds just built right back in. IIRC, you did mention that it seems that temperatures are being overdone just a bit recently so we end up on the cooler side of things.

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Topped out at a cool 61 today. However, the overcast skies made it feel and look colder than it was.

GSP has a high of 71 for mby on Wednesday and a low of 29 on Thursday night this week.

Coaster time...

Same here. Weather service went with mid 60's here but its 58 now. I think we'll see this a few times again this week. Looks pretty hard to get to 70 west of INT CLT GSP line until Wednesday probably unless we break out into a good deal of sunshine, which looks unlikely. Another hard freeze coming Friday morning with mid to upper 20's your area. What is your forecast low?

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The 12zGFS looks very progressive - nothing seeming to lock in. The NAO looks neutral to positive throughout its ensembles w/ maybe a dip late in it's forecast. AO has a similar look. To me, December is beginning to look like a month that will not be as cold as I expected. Right now, the cold does not seem to be able to hit and hold - though to be certain it is similar to last year. The fact it is so similar to last year makes me think the pattern won't repeat as nature just doesn't seem to repeat itself very often, i.e. all snowflakes are unique as are human beings. Now, that doesn't mean we won't have cold this winter. But I have to admit, that SE ridge seems pretty powerful on the models. To me, it looks as if we will have to thread the needle in December if we plan on getting any snow. We have been spoiled the past two winters. This winter may be tough to take because of that.

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The 12zGFS looks very progressive - nothing seeming to lock in. The NAO looks neutral to positive throughout its ensembles w/ maybe a dip late in it's forecast. AO has a similar look. To me, December is beginning to look like a month that will not be as cold as I expected. Right now, the cold does not seem to be able to hit and hold - though to be certain it is similar to last year. The fact it is so similar to last year makes me think the pattern won't repeat as nature just doesn't seem to repeat itself very often, i.e. all snowflakes are unique as are human beings. Now, that doesn't mean we won't have cold this winter. But I have to admit, that SE ridge seems pretty powerful on the models. To me, it looks as if we will have to thread the needle in December if we plan on getting any snow. We have been spoiled the past two winters. This winter may be tough to take because of that.

Odds of snow in December are always low in this part of the country, last couple of years were unusual, and even if we get into colder Winters than we had in the 80s and 90's, the odds are probably still low that most Decembers won't be "snowy" in the Southeast. However, its way too early to call for a warm December. Often, we switch patterns late in November or early December, but only time will tell if it locks in or how the pattern will alternate. Also, a week ago the models were painting a pretty stout ridge over the SE about now and the first part of the week, but the reality is that its being tempered down. Have you noticed each run, the Southeast ridge gets pushed out yet again? Its been happening a solid week now. Eventually, we will warm up. The next few days do look to warm up some, but for n. Al, Ga, Tn and the Carolinas the cold comes right back in following the front on Thursday, the one the models did NOT have a few days ago..yet the pattern supported. I think it will continue to play out this way. The high heights now in eastern Canada and vortex near Hudson Bay will keep on squelching the SE ridge mostly , and as runs continue, the models explicitly catch on to that. I wouldn't look at the models and expect them to be gospel for sure. We continue to have a pattern in which the models are playing catch up to reality. Once we settle deeper into Winter later next month the models will be much better at showing things but for now, you have to read between the lines.

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Topped out at 68 about 1pm before the clouds rolled in. Stiff sw wind today, sustained in the 15-20 range, and gusting to 25. Getting ready for the early week warm-up, RAH mentioning a chance for 80 on Weds, areas along and east of Hwy 1. Excellent disco put out by this WFO in the afternoon package regarding thunderstorm potential Weds (see link below). Always a tough call with these high shear-low instab events, most of the time they underperform, but there is always the exception. Timing and the amount of clearing are hard to nail down before the day of. Another cool down in store on the backside, just in time for the weekend. Frequency is averaging about 1 front a week lately, warm, rinse, cool, and repeat!

AFDRAH

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Topped out at 68 about 1pm before the clouds rolled in. Stiff sw wind today, sustained in the 15-20 range, and gusting to 25. Getting ready for the early week warm-up, RAH mentioning a chance for 80 on Weds, areas along and east of Hwy 1. Excellent disco put out by this WFO in the afternoon package regarding thunderstorm potential Weds (see link below). Always a tough call with these high shear-low instab events, most of the time they underperform, but there is always the exception. Timing and the amount of clearing are hard to nail down before the day of. Another cool down in store on the backside, just in time for the weekend. Frequency is averaging about 1 front a week lately, warm, rinse, cool, and repeat!

AFDRAH

This is how I remember winters being around here most of the 80's-90's big cold fronts with several cold to cool days then several warmup days then a "hot" day with another front and dramatic cool down. It prolly has more to do with me being a kid than anything else but I sure seem to remember it being "zonal" and rarely getting locked in to either warm or cold patterns.

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The 12zGFS looks very progressive - nothing seeming to lock in. The NAO looks neutral to positive throughout its ensembles w/ maybe a dip late in it's forecast. AO has a similar look. To me, December is beginning to look like a month that will not be as cold as I expected. Right now, the cold does not seem to be able to hit and hold - though to be certain it is similar to last year. The fact it is so similar to last year makes me think the pattern won't repeat as nature just doesn't seem to repeat itself very often, i.e. all snowflakes are unique as are human beings. Now, that doesn't mean we won't have cold this winter. But I have to admit, that SE ridge seems pretty powerful on the models. To me, it looks as if we will have to thread the needle in December if we plan on getting any snow. We have been spoiled the past two winters. This winter may be tough to take because of that.

Carver,

Agree (for what that and a dollar can buy you these days). In another topic (http://www.americanw...13#entry1116113) I noted how the GFS looks to go zonal again in its later stages.

Being a Sunday, here's a prayer that something changes and locks before 2012!

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Same here. Weather service went with mid 60's here but its 58 now. I think we'll see this a few times again this week. Looks pretty hard to get to 70 west of INT CLT GSP line until Wednesday probably unless we break out into a good deal of sunshine, which looks unlikely. Another hard freeze coming Friday morning with mid to upper 20's your area. What is your forecast low?

35 for friday night. I am going to kure beach fishing on thursday through saturday. I hope weather is good there

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Topped out at 68 about 1pm before the clouds rolled in. Stiff sw wind today, sustained in the 15-20 range, and gusting to 25. Getting ready for the early week warm-up, RAH mentioning a chance for 80 on Weds, areas along and east of Hwy 1. Excellent disco put out by this WFO in the afternoon package regarding thunderstorm potential Weds (see link below). Always a tough call with these high shear-low instab events, most of the time they underperform, but there is always the exception. Timing and the amount of clearing are hard to nail down before the day of. Another cool down in store on the backside, just in time for the weekend. Frequency is averaging about 1 front a week lately, warm, rinse, cool, and repeat!

AFDRAH

My fingers are crossed we get a good squal line to zip through Wednesday. This would be just what the doctor odered for MBY, as it would strip the remaining leaves off and I could justify getting on the roof to clean the gutters as well as my next pass at cleaning up the yard being my last one.

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My fingers are crossed we get a good squal line to zip through Wednesday. This would be just what the doctor odered for MBY, as it would strip the remaining leaves off and I could justify getting on the roof to clean the gutters as well as my next pass at cleaning up the yard being my last one.

we still have some leaves that are green on a few maples. about two weeks late for falling

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Managed to crack 70 today with a high of just that. Above average day and night time temperatures for now but as others have said it looks like a roller coaster going from 5-10 above normal for a few days to 5-10 below normal for a couple days.... It will be interesting to see which wins out more this month warm or cold in my area. If I had to bet I'd say warm but I'm much less confident that Atlanta goes above normal for November now. As others have said the pattern is very progressive and the warm and cool does not last long on either end of the spectrum. I'm actually leaning heavily to climo at this point. I think things pretty much even out for the most part for November temps around here. I still think the pattern stinks for locked in cold or snow so despite temps not averaging above normal the pattern is crap for now.

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Thought this was an interesting post from Isotherm in the snow cover thread on the main page...

"I'm of the opinion that the anomalous high latitude blocking of the past two cold seasons was due largely to the stratospheric/tropospheric response to extended low geomagnetic activity. Heading into mid November this year, geomagnetic indicators have fallen off the cliff as K indices and Ap are barely detectable right now. Given that hasn't changed from the last 2 years, I believe it's not a question of if the blocking will occur but when. This year the -NAO should initiate about a month later."

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Thought this was an interesting post from Isotherm in the snow cover thread on the main page...

"I'm of the opinion that the anomalous high latitude blocking of the past two cold seasons was due largely to the stratospheric/tropospheric response to extended low geomagnetic activity. Heading into mid November this year, geomagnetic indicators have fallen off the cliff as K indices and Ap are barely detectable right now. Given that hasn't changed from the last 2 years, I believe it's not a question of if the blocking will occur but when. This year the -NAO should initiate about a month later."

Very interesting! I for one, have NOT given up on winter yet.....Never do til Mid March. Keep the good info flowing.....just a matter of time before all the players line up.

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