Cold Rain Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I know a lot of forecasters go that route of forecasting the individual 3 months of temp anomalies, but I don't. It's hard enough to get an overall pattern correct and to narrow it down further by monthly breakdowns is probably even a smidge more difficult. But as always with long range seasonal forecasting, its a lot of luck and educated guesses and few have been consistently right. The only time I feel like I'm any convinced at all regarding my own outlook is if we're in a guaranteed el Nino of some sort, as its as close to a practical guarantee of atleast above average rainfall across the South, with hardly any exception, if any. As for missing snow and cold in December and then it being hopeless after that? I seriously doubt it unless something like a 1989 pattern occurs. By and large, snow or ice outside the mountains is pretty rare in December anyway. With the almost extreme amp and energy in the flow this season, we could go from 60's or 70's one day, and cold and snowy the next . Hope nobody views my outlook as sacrosanct, b/c I sure don't. If it busts, it busts, no big deal to me really...I do it more for the fun and challenge of it. I'm definitely more of a short range guy with emphasis on microclimate and details, heavy on patterns and big scale synoptics for general forecasting. Today was a pretty cold day, colder than forecast here. Just two days ago the call was upper 50's, hit low to mid 50's in this area. Not sure why but the cold advection regimes last couple or 3 years have been significantly lower than forecast in GSP to CLT region on about every single time following a significant cold front. Just a general warm bias I guess. Just want to add a few things: If the consensus was forecasting a front-loaded Winter with respect to cold and stormy with a warm end to the Winter, why is it logical to get discouraged that it looks like it might be warm on the front end? In other words, if the consensus is wrong about the first half, why is it a given that they will be right about the second half, just because the prediction is for warm? I would argue that if the consensus is wrong about the first half, then the warm prediction for the second half is no more likely to be correct. It may turn out to be correct, but in my opinion, it could go either way....that is IF it the consensus forecast for a cold start is wrong....and that is a long way from being decided one way or the other yet. As you've pointed out, the flow is so full of energy, how in the world could the models possibly get a four week forecast right? Maybe they will. Maybe the entire month of December will be warm. But it won't be because the Euro Weeklies say so or because the 384 GFS says so. It's hard to believe that it's not yet mid-November, and there's so much disappointment already about the first half of Winter being over. Besides, I already said we're getting some winter weather in mid-December, so it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I can already tell this winter will be fun around here We're just getting warmed up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Never to early to throw a couple extra nails in the coffin just for good measure... Would not want it popping open in the DJF timeframe, folks may get scared thinking we had it hammered shut! Seriously though, during inactive periods, and especially heading into winters unrealistic expectations/warmista ideologies rear there ugly heads. I will be the first to admit guilt. The past 3 winters have been atypical for the SE and most of us are bracing for a sustained period of screw which we know is coming. Don't want to read the writing, but it is written in capital blocks. Will this be the winter I stay up till 3am to see what will be the only flakes of the season from a moisture starved cold front literally evaporating east of RDU, maybe, who knows, would not be the first time. On the other hand, past performance is not always indicative of future results, especially when it comes to the wx. Good point. One thing you're a little bit off on....I think that line of snow will dissipate just WEST of RDU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Who is this JB you guys speak of; never heard of him here in the SE? OK what happened to my reply to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Hunted all day and it was on the chilly side, our club is north of Bath way down in Beaufort Co and it was already 43 on the truck when we left at 5:30 so expect them to get there first hard freeze down there tonight as well. 37 already here in Gville with the wind decoupled we should see mid to upper 20's easily......gonna be cold in the treestand in the morning 10:00 PM and 39 in this Gainesville NWS for here: Overnight: Widespread frost after 2am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 31. Calm wind. Surely hope this isn't a tease ... C'mon - NAO, + PNA, Block, sustain .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Just hit the freezing mark here. Low this morning was 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Just hit the freezing mark here. Low this morning was 29. Freezing as well here man, circa 10:15 at the airport. 32/28 officially, forecasted low of 30 down 1 degree from the afternoon package, but thinking 27 is more likely. Another solid 5-6 hour period of <0C for the Coastal Plain. Not wanting to let go of Thanksgiving weekend just yet, global has been intermittent in showing troughieness along the EC, with an imbedded sw in the southern stream. Granted it is a long shot at the t-step, but it would fit the weekend rule, and maybe some more RN in the broken gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Already down to 32 here in Dahlonega. Radiational cooling is in full force tonight with calms winds. 26-27 looks very doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Down to 37 already here. I can easily see myself dipping down to 29 at the rate the temperatures have been dropping. No wind or clouds present so it ought to be downright cold in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 28 at midnight. Low 20's a sure bet tonight. FYI Sugar is open for business tomorrow. 11/12 has to be one of the earliest dates I'd imagine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Already down to 32 here in Dahlonega. Radiational cooling is in full force tonight with calms winds. 26-27 looks very doable. I finally got a chance to check my second receiver, and one of my remotes registered a 29.5 last night. So that is a 29, and 2 30's across my property last night. At midnight last night I was at 42. Tonight at midnight I'm reading 35.5 on the receiver I have in front of me. I expect I'll see temps below 29 for early morning on at least one remote. I'm happy as a clam with fall, so far! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 OT but too excited not too share. Just got done blowing snow for the 1st time this season. Ended up with a healthy 2 - 3". If the lines dont freeze too bad tonight I might try it again during the early morning hours before I head up to Cat for some skiing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cameronfry Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 OT but too excited not too share. Just got done blowing snow for the 1st time this season. Ended up with a healthy 2 - 3". If the lines dont freeze too bad tonight I might try it again during the early morning hours before I head up to Cat for some skiing! Great pic. Enjoy those first turns of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Well turns out I was right. I just reached 29 as of a few minutes ago and there's a good bit of frost all over the yard and such. Now to see if the temperature drops another degree or two. Down to 37 already here. I can easily see myself dipping down to 29 at the rate the temperatures have been dropping. No wind or clouds present so it ought to be downright cold in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 32.7 right now and still falling. I love reading the long range forecast from people but I have a had time believing any of them. I guess I've been around so long that I know that patterns can and will change. I don't know how many of them truly get it right anyway. I believe (based on 56 years of living) is that winter for us will be colder and wetter. And of course, not based on science at all unless you call personal observations science. And I'll probably be as right as 50% of the forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 24.9 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Coldest temp of the season right now. 28 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 28.9 here for a low, at 5:58. Warmed to 29.9, before sunrise, evidence if a pretty big turn around coming today with a high near 60 projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 Tallahassee's rec low of 23:colder than what most no. cities have seen so far! Minneapolis 28,Des Moines 26, Chicago 30 - TWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 27.5 with a heavy frost. The side of my neighbors house is even frosted. Yesterday we hit 26.6 IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Checking in at 29.7, hard to believe we're going to torch a little bit next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Was 32 before 8:00 last night - held at 27 most of the early morning hours. A heavy frost here this morning as well. RAH's disco this morning is mentioning a possibility of t'storms and even tossed in the 'isolated tornado' chance for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 26 this morning here with a good deal of frost. Not sure how many times but I have had quite a few mornings of frost here the last couple of weeks..more so than normal for this time of year it seems..despite all the talk of a warm november. Strange though it didn't feel that cold. Night before last it felt MUCH colder even though it was 20 degrees warmer. Can't explain that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Tallahassee's rec low of 23:colder than what most no. cities have seen so far! Minneapolis 28,Des Moines 26, Chicago 30 - TWC Yep. The high center got to central or south GA this morning and was perfect for radiational cooling. This happens a lot though in early to mid Fall where the Deep South gets colder readings than the north. I think my area has had a freeze before Boston and DC many of the last few years (most years in fact) but of course as true advective cold comes in, they will be colder than the south. Here comes the warmup though..high pressure slides out to sea quickly today and strong southwest flow brings all of us into the warmup. The next rain event could be impressive for the Apps and interior Southeast esp west of the Apps. After this we're basically in a warmer than average pattern for a few days, although might be a damming event late week briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 26 this morning here with a good deal of frost. Not sure how many times but I have had quite a few mornings of frost here the last couple of weeks..more so than normal for this time of year it seems..despite all the talk of a warm november. Strange though it didn't feel that cold. Night before last it felt MUCH colder even though it was 20 degrees warmer. Can't explain that one. I definitely felt colder last night and this morning compared to the previous frosts here. It was a hard freeze and frost on everything. The older I get, the better a move to Key West appeals to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Yep. The high center got to central or south GA this morning and was perfect for radiational cooling. This happens a lot though in early to mid Fall where the Deep South gets colder readings than the north. I think my area has had a freeze before Boston and DC many of the last few years (most years in fact) but of course as true advective cold comes in, they will be colder than the south. Here comes the warmup though..high pressure slides out to sea quickly today and strong southwest flow brings all of us into the warmup. The next rain event could be impressive for the Apps and interior Southeast esp west of the Apps. After this we're basically in a warmer than average pattern for a few days, although might be a damming event late week briefly. Yep, except the higher elevations, the okefenokee swamp was the coldest area in georgia this morning with widespread mid 20s. Reminds me of that eposide of survivor man when he froze to death and he couldn't believe how cold it was down there. And that was coming from someone who lives in canada which made it even funnier. You are right about that first freeze before the large cities. It got below freezing here for example a lot sooner than Chicago, who just did get their first freeze. Funny how that is the case many years..just wish we could carry that "colder than up north" into the winter lol I definitely felt colder last night and this morning compared to the previous frosts here. It was a hard freeze and frost on everything. The older I get, the better a move to Key West appeals to me. Key West?!?! You better not be serious :axe: Man there is no way I could live in a place like that, where variety of weather is so low...not to mention zero chance of anything even remotely looking like winter and where if it gets to the 40s it's headline news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Yep, except the higher elevations, the okefenokee swamp was the coldest area in georgia this morning with widespread mid 20s. Reminds me of that eposide of survivor man when he froze to death and he couldn't believe how cold it was down there. And that was coming from someone who lives in canada which made it even funnier. did he die before or after he realized how cold it was? if after, that's a really cool story!!!! haha, just messing with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 did he die before or after he realized how cold it was? if after, that's a really cool story!!!! haha, just messing with you. Mess with me and it's time for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I definitely felt colder last night and this morning compared to the previous frosts here. It was a hard freeze and frost on everything. The older I get, the better a move to Key West appeals to me. Key West?!?! You better not be serious :axe: Man there is no way I could live in a place like that, where variety of weather is so low...not to mention zero chance of anything even remotely looking like winter and where if it gets to the 40s it's headline news. I had frost on my windshield this morning when I got up for work (woohoo overtime...), as well as all over the yard and the plants. It's not making me a happy camper. I'm with Foothills on this one; I can't take the cold like I used to (and I'm only 27). I'd much rather deal with our summers all year than freeze like I did the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I definitely felt colder last night and this morning compared to the previous frosts here. It was a hard freeze and frost on everything. The older I get, the better a move to Key West appeals to me. I have been there, i don't think you would like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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