Cold Rain Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 November 11, 2011: The day Winter died. RIP Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 November 11, 2011: The day Winter died. RIP Winter. I can already tell this winter will be fun around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 November 11, 2011: The day Winter died. RIP Winter. Never to early to throw a couple extra nails in the coffin just for good measure... Would not want it popping open in the DJF timeframe, folks may get scared thinking we had it hammered shut! Seriously though, during inactive periods, and especially heading into winters unrealistic expectations/warmista ideologies rear there ugly heads. I will be the first to admit guilt. The past 3 winters have been atypical for the SE and most of us are bracing for a sustained period of screw which we know is coming. Don't want to read the writing, but it is written in capital blocks. Will this be the winter I stay up till 3am to see what will be the only flakes of the season from a moisture starved cold front literally evaporating east of RDU, maybe, who knows, would not be the first time. On the other hand, past performance is not always indicative of future results, especially when it comes to the wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Kind of liking the look of today's Euro in the Day 8-10 range. Nice pinches of high pressure from the Pacific and Atlantic trying to force a cold air mass south. Don't want to waste ANY cold air before Thanksgiving, imho. Never to early to throw a couple extra nails in the coffin just for good measure... Would not want it popping open in the DJF timeframe, folks may get scared thinking we had it hammered shut! Seriously though, during inactive periods, and especially heading into winters unrealistic expectations/warmista ideologies rear there ugly heads. I will be the first to admit guilt. The past 3 winters have been atypical for the SE and most of us are bracing for a sustained period of screw which we know is coming. Don't want to read the writing, but it is written in capital blocks. Will this be the winter I stay up till 3am to see what will be the only flakes of the season from a moisture starved cold front literally evaporating east of RDU, maybe, who knows, would not be the first time. On the other hand, past performance is not always indicative of future results, especially when it comes to the wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Gotta love the drama that's present already, and we're not even glued to watching every model run showing potential for snow yet. If this were during mid-December then I would be worried but since we're just now getting into mid-November we still have around a month left to watch how things progress from here on. Now we are all aware it's rather difficult to get two fantastic winters in a row, let alone a potential third one but it's not impossible. Who knows. We may only need to wait a little longer than last year to get the pattern to shift into our favor assuming the change takes place in time. Even if we were to average a slightly warmer than normal December, it doesn't mean that January or February can't average colder. As a matter of fact, if it meant getting better snow/wintry mix chances with plenty of cold in the latter then I certainly could wait longer. I think one of the analogs I looked at (1967-1968) while I was doing my winter forecast showed a warm December followed by a colder than normal January and February, though precipitation was only above normal for December and trended drier for the other two months. The point is we can't get all upset over how things are now. I know I sound like I'm grasping for straws (just playing the optimist here) but it is unknown as to how well exactly the long range is truly handling the situation and could be missing a piece or two of this rather complicated puzzle. Models are what they are: Computers that attempt to forecast the overall setup of the weather, just like we do. Let's just see how everything unfolds before lining up at the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Why are folks thinking that we should get Winter like cold in November or even the first half of December now lately? Speaking of the Euro, it hasn't got much of anything right this year, especially beyond 5 days. I wouldn't pay that much mind to its weeklies for sure. You'd have better luck watching the GFS operational, literally, through the 384 hour. Just my 2 cents. Purely anecdotally speaking, I feel they have some manner of skill. I have done no studies on it but count on the product for looking down the road a month for my company. If one is looking for detail then one is going to the wrong place. But with the pattern I would trust the week 2 ECMWF product 100% of the time versus the 384 opGFS. I know Matt at CWG is starting to doubt his cold December forecast but he is waiting another week...I am not a skilled seasonal forecaster but I am just not comfortable with the cold forecast for early this winter. This does not mean Jan or Feb can't have a reversal...I just think this year may not fit into a neat little analog box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 12z GFS trended toward the Euro with the rain next Tuesday...less stream separation and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Purely anecdotally speaking, I feel they have some manner of skill. I have done no studies on it but count on the product for looking down the road a month for my company. If one is looking for detail then one is going to the wrong place. But with the pattern I would trust the week 2 ECMWF product 100% of the time versus the 384 opGFS. I know Matt at CWG is starting to doubt his cold December forecast but he is waiting another week...I am not a skilled seasonal forecaster but I am just not comfortable with the cold forecast for early this winter. This does not mean Jan or Feb can't have a reversal...I just think this year may not fit into a neat little analog box. I think I am definitely most concerned about losing a good chunk of December to a mild regime. The weeklies show absolutely no change in the pattern and we know that real world pattern changes always lag 10 days or so from what's shown on a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I think I am definitely most concerned about losing a good chunk of December to a mild regime. The weeklies show absolutely no change in the pattern and we know that real world pattern changes always lag 10 days or so from what's shown on a model. Well at least we have JB on the cold side. He does not buy the EURO Weeklies... [/url] BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Euro weeklies NOT in line with my thinking. Lots of work in front of me as they are opposite of cold pdo, warm amo, 2cnd yr nina analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
appstate00 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Check out the November 2009 and November 2010 data from Boone, NC. Those were warm Novembers, and we know how December turned out. November 2009 - Average Temp: 46.6 F November 2010 - Average Temp: 46.8 F http://www.booneweather.com/Archive/Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Joe Bastardi Weatherbell Subscribers: Check Joe's post today. Not a pretty picture at all for winter south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 I've got these for November from my station since 2008: 2008 - 49.9 2009 - 52.3 2010 - 51.1 2011 - 50.8 as of 15 minutes ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Joe Bastardi Weatherbell Subscribers: Check Joe's post today. Not a pretty picture at all for winter south of I-70. No offense intended for Joe B, but where was he during the Southeast major Winter storms of just the last 2 to 3 years? We've had historic cold, and several major snowfalls down here, and in pretty big chunks like the southern Apps clear to Georgia, the Carolinas had several, the major bowling ball snowstorm of March 2009, and another March snow of 2010, December snow or icestorm of pre ChristmasDec 2009, Southern Apps blizzard and January 2010, the February 2010 Deep South snow, last year's big snow in Ala, GA and SC and part of NC, and last season's Christmas snow we saw coming a mile a way. Many of these missed areas south of I-70. Or the big back to back floods in Ga, Ala and TN a couple years ago, and the big Southeast tornado outbreak this April, or the numerous once in a lifetime hailstorms in the Carolinas? I don't recall him forecasting much or any of these events for the Southeast, unless maybe it was pretty imminent or already underway. He's got his methods and opinions but if I were south of DC, I don't think I'd be looking to him or his former co. Accuweather as the first ones to alert the Southeast crew of what's coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 KCLT mean temperatures(F) from 2000 from October 1 - November 10. 2000- 60 2001- 58 2002- 59 2003- 61 2004- 62 2005- 61 2006- 56 2007- 62 2008- 58 2009- 58 2010- 59 2011- 57 (Coldest) I wouldn't be freaking out yet you all. Model worshiping will only lead to no good. It's all about consistency. Edit: This pertains to areas < about 100mi near Charlotte. Snowmaking has begun at App Ski Mtn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Joe Bastardi Weatherbell Subscribers: Check Joe's post today. Not a pretty picture at all for winter south of I-70. He's due for a pretty big bust year. just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 No offense intended for Joe B, but where was he during the Southeast major Winter storms of just the last 2 to 3 years? We've had historic cold, and several major snowfalls down here, and in pretty big chunks like the southern Apps clear to Georgia, the Carolinas had several, the major bowling ball snowstorm of March 2009, and another March snow of 2010, December snow or icestorm of pre ChristmasDec 2009, Southern Apps blizzard and January 2010, the February 2010 Deep South snow, last year's big snow in Ala, GA and SC and part of NC, and last season's Christmas snow we saw coming a mile a way. Many of these missed areas south of I-70. I don't recall him forecasting much or any of these events for the Southeast, unless maybe it was pretty imminent or already underway. He's got his methods and opinions but if I were south of DC, I don't think I'd be looking to him or his former co. Accuweather as the first ones to alert the Southeast crew of what's coming up. well said and 100% agree I believe we have our own Joe B down here to rely on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 No offense intended for Joe B, but where was he during the Southeast major Winter storms of just the last 2 to 3 years? We've had historic cold, and several major snowfalls down here, and in pretty big chunks like the southern Apps clear to Georgia, the Carolinas had several, the major bowling ball snowstorm of March 2009, and another March snow of 2010, December snow or icestorm of pre ChristmasDec 2009, Southern Apps blizzard and January 2010, the February 2010 Deep South snow, last year's big snow in Ala, GA and SC and part of NC, and last season's Christmas snow we saw coming a mile a way. Many of these missed areas south of I-70. I don't recall him forecasting much or any of these events for the Southeast, unless maybe it was pretty imminent or already underway. He's got his methods and opinions but if I were south of DC, I don't think I'd be looking to him or his former co. Accuweather as the first ones to alert the Southeast crew of what's coming up. I'm goin' with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 SE ridge definitely looks prominent and consistently so on the GFS. Does anyone have the 500 mb anomolies from the past two Novembers for comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Who is this JB you guys speak of; never heard of him here in the SE? SE ridge definitely looks prominent and consistently so on the GFS. Does anyone have the 500 mb anomolies from the past two Novembers for comparison? There are a couple threads pertaining to it on main-side: The one you are looking for about the H5 comparison Medium range disco SN-cover, maybe a little above compared to last year at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 No offense intended for Joe B, but where was he during the Southeast major Winter storms of just the last 2 to 3 years? We've had historic cold, and several major snowfalls down here, and in pretty big chunks like the southern Apps clear to Georgia, the Carolinas had several, the major bowling ball snowstorm of March 2009, and another March snow of 2010, December snow or icestorm of pre ChristmasDec 2009, Southern Apps blizzard and January 2010, the February 2010 Deep South snow, last year's big snow in Ala, GA and SC and part of NC, and last season's Christmas snow we saw coming a mile a way. Many of these missed areas south of I-70. Or the big back to back floods in Ga, Ala and TN a couple years ago, and the big Southeast tornado outbreak this April, or the numerous once in a lifetime hailstorms in the Carolinas? I don't recall him forecasting much or any of these events for the Southeast, unless maybe it was pretty imminent or already underway. He's got his methods and opinions but if I were south of DC, I don't think I'd be looking to him or his former co. Accuweather as the first ones to alert the Southeast crew of what's coming up. In fact IIRC he busted pretty hard on most of these storms. I always laugh when JB gets brought up mainly because he seems to always bust so hard. I guess it's the busts you remember but he seems to do it with a consistency second to none for us in the SE. Something about the two initial nickname METs that just causes them to be screwy. We can't start calling you RG or you might start to go off the deep end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 No offense intended for Joe B, but where was he during the Southeast major Winter storms of just the last 2 to 3 years? We've had historic cold, and several major snowfalls down here, and in pretty big chunks like the southern Apps clear to Georgia, the Carolinas had several, the major bowling ball snowstorm of March 2009, and another March snow of 2010, December snow or icestorm of pre ChristmasDec 2009, Southern Apps blizzard and January 2010, the February 2010 Deep South snow, last year's big snow in Ala, GA and SC and part of NC, and last season's Christmas snow we saw coming a mile a way. Many of these missed areas south of I-70. Or the big back to back floods in Ga, Ala and TN a couple years ago, and the big Southeast tornado outbreak this April, or the numerous once in a lifetime hailstorms in the Carolinas? I don't recall him forecasting much or any of these events for the Southeast, unless maybe it was pretty imminent or already underway. He's got his methods and opinions but if I were south of DC, I don't think I'd be looking to him or his former co. Accuweather as the first ones to alert the Southeast crew of what's coming up. Wholeheartedly agree. I think he only mentioned about us a few times during these past recent years with the winter storms and such but not enough to say that he was with us and gave us a heads up for areas south of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic during all of times. It's JB so he does his own thing and that's fine with me but honestly it wouldn't hurt for him to at least pay some attention down this way. I think Frank Strait from Accuweather was the only one who really mentioned us more often than not than JB or anyone else from Accuweather up there (since he is the Southern US forecaster and all). Plus, from what I can recall watching his videos during the previous winter, he always mentioned if there were any potential threats for a winter storm across the South. Compared to a few years ago, I hardly view what JB has posted and whatnot nowadays unless it's something that peaks my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Wholeheartedly agree. I think he only mentioned about us a few times during these past recent years with the winter storms and such but not enough to say that he was with us and gave us a heads up for areas south of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic during all of times. It's JB so he does his own thing and that's fine with me but honestly it wouldn't hurt for him to at least pay some attention down this way. I think Frank Strait from Accuweather was the only one who really mentioned us more often than not than JB or anyone else from Accuweather up there (since he is the Southern US forecaster and all). Plus, from what I can recall watching his videos during the previous winter, he always mentioned if there were any potential threats for a winter storm across the South. Compared to a few years ago, I hardly view what JB has posted and whatnot nowadays unless it's something that peaks my interest. I like JB but I agree totally. Last year on the Christmas Storm he said after it was over the Carolinas received 6 inches while north of them got pounded. He went on to talk about the Northeast. 6 inches here is a feat snowfall though it may not be much to the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Who is this JB you guys speak of; never heard of him here in the SE? There are a couple threads pertaining to it on main-side: The one you are looking for about the H5 comparison Medium range disco SN-cover, maybe a little above compared to last year at this time Thanks for posting, WxNC! As for the snowcover, it might be just a tad more in comparison yet the ice looks to be substantially more. Central Canada seems to be where it's lagging behind ly,but hopefully with the deep cold building there we see a substantial increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 What has most of us concerned is the general consesus was for a front load winter with a dramtic shift to way above normal from Mid-January into March. If our front load December is in jeapordy, it's gonna be a challenge for some solid winter weather. Hopefully the Euro weeklies that has everyone on edge will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Looks like tonight will finally bring on that first 'killing' freeze, after several nights dancing with 30-32°. It's already down to 36 right now, and they've lowered us down into mid 20's overnight (We're in one of those "normally colder areas" that gets referred to quite often). Still swatting mosquitoes, so this'll be a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Looks like tonight will finally bring on that first 'killing' freeze, after several nights dancing with 30-32°. It's already down to 36 right now, and they've lowered us down into mid 20's overnight (We're in one of those "normally colder areas" that gets referred to quite often). Still swatting mosquitoes, so this'll be a good thing My side yard thermometer is reading 32. Now granted it is a foot off the ground but that still means all those remaing bugs are history tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Hunted all day and it was on the chilly side, our club is north of Bath way down in Beaufort Co and it was already 43 on the truck when we left at 5:30 so expect them to get there first hard freeze down there tonight as well. 37 already here in Gville with the wind decoupled we should see mid to upper 20's easily......gonna be cold in the treestand in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 What has most of us concerned is the general consesus was for a front load winter with a dramtic shift to way above normal from Mid-January into March. If our front load December is in jeapordy, it's gonna be a challenge for some solid winter weather. Hopefully the Euro weeklies that has everyone on edge will be wrong. I know a lot of forecasters go that route of forecasting the individual 3 months of temp anomalies, but I don't. It's hard enough to get an overall pattern correct and to narrow it down further by monthly breakdowns is probably even a smidge more difficult. But as always with long range seasonal forecasting, its a lot of luck and educated guesses and few have been consistently right. The only time I feel like I'm any convinced at all regarding my own outlook is if we're in a guaranteed el Nino of some sort, as its as close to a practical guarantee of atleast above average rainfall across the South, with hardly any exception, if any. As for missing snow and cold in December and then it being hopeless after that? I seriously doubt it unless something like a 1989 pattern occurs. By and large, snow or ice outside the mountains is pretty rare in December anyway. With the almost extreme amp and energy in the flow this season, we could go from 60's or 70's one day, and cold and snowy the next . Hope nobody views my outlook as sacrosanct, b/c I sure don't. If it busts, it busts, no big deal to me really...I do it more for the fun and challenge of it. I'm definitely more of a short range guy with emphasis on microclimate and details, heavy on patterns and big scale synoptics for general forecasting. Today was a pretty cold day, colder than forecast here. Just two days ago the call was upper 50's, hit low to mid 50's in this area. Not sure why but the cold advection regimes last couple or 3 years have been significantly lower than forecast in GSP to CLT region on about every single time following a significant cold front. Just a general warm bias I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I plow snow as it is part of my business. I think most everybody is getting excited for nothing. It is November 11th no model has been correct during the winter the last few years until within 72 hours. Even that was proven wrong last Christmas. The earliest we have had measurable snow in the last 10 years I believe was 2003 or 2004 when it snowed here on December 4th. It will get cold this year and hopefully it will snow or ice but think it is earl to be concerned about it. Temps have been colder than predicted every week the last 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I plow snow as it is part of my business. I think most everybody is getting excited for nothing. It is November 11th no model has been correct during the winter the last few years until within 72 hours. Even that was proven wrong last Christmas. The earliest we have had measurable snow in the last 10 years I believe was 2003 or 2004 when it snowed here on December 4th. It will get cold this year and hopefully it will snow or ice but think it is earl to be concerned about it. Temps have been colder than predicted every week the last 6 weeks. pretty true. That snow before Christmas was 2002 storm (did you get snow Dec. 18 2010 storm?--I know there was a sharp line before the cutoff). The trend I noticed for the Carolinas and Ga atleast so far has been a troughy weakness in the flow for last couple of months. There's a pretty noticeable absence in the Bermuda ridging here, and that probably has a lot to do with -NAO. Once we get a solid block there in the Winter months, that's when we have our snow (outside of el nino overrunning--when its usually a little too warm) or Pacific split flow (again, nino usually). BTW the ECMWF paints an interesting pattern change, it builds 2 closed highs one near Alaska, one in Greenland. But its the ECMWF and has been not so steady or reliable for a while now, so until it gets consistent and/or matches the GFS I wouldn't get too excited or worried on what its showing. Also, the strong warmups shown lately have been squelched , day by day, run by run. The models keep over doing it. Its kinda like a few Winters where the models kept showing a cold pattern coming but never really happened. Remember those years from 2005 to 2008 or 2009? The pattern will rule over the models usually. As for the ECMWF shows today, that pattern would be a humdinger of an arctic outbreak eventually for the US. With all the cold air and (by then a snow covered Canada) there would be a strong arctic outbreak pretty early , compared to usual. Right now its a long shot, but at some point we probably will get a double block similar to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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