Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

November Discussion


DaculaWeather

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Beautiful pink rainbow this evening...

:thumbsup:

Thought I share this with you all. A beautiful sunset with a golden/slight pink hue across the sky.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

The sunset last night was simply amazing :weight_lift:

Looks like I'm apt to get my first freeze tonight. Guess I'll be running around the yard nekked at midnight....a promise I made myself back in the worst of the summer heat :) Funny how it seems less appealing now, than in did in July, lol. T

If your neighbors are anything like mine, they are used to strange behavior in order to please the weather gods :wub::lol:

By the way, nice full moon tonight. My cam doesn't do it justice but you can see a few craters anyway.

Viewing the sky last night was amazing :wub:

The Euro weeklies are very bleak...no sign of cold and by week four almost the entire country is warm including most of Canada...

I'm not worried until February :lol:

MBY made it to 33.6 last night and for the first time this year I have this......:wub:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

402 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2011

...FREEZE WARNING...

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST

SATURDAY...

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO

LOWER 30S EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the LR 0Z euro, it's really warm everywhere on our side of the Mississippi. The 850 zero line is north of green bay and the entire SE is at 8+ or warmer at 850 and entrenched in a SW flow. That gives credence to the possibility of t-giving being at the very least pretty damn warm.

The one nice thing about the 00z is that by days 9 and 10, the big trough in the west gets squeezed and retrogrades SW. The rest of the EPAC is wavy instead of pacjet mania. That could set the stage down the road for a pattern change. But this next week is going to be rough to watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just how accurate are the Euro weeklies? I don't know much about them at all but I know that Dr. No hasn't been as good the last year or so. For some reason this year I'm not bothered by a slow start to winter. I think the last couple of snowy years have calmed me down. I know it will get cold eventually.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just how accurate are the Euro weeklies? I don't know much about them at all but I know that Dr. No hasn't been as good the last year or so. For some reason this year I'm not bothered by a slow start to winter. I think the last couple of snowy years have calmed me down. I know it will get cold eventually.

ORH_wxman stated in the NE sub last night that while they nailed the cold at the end of Oct, they have been pretty "volatile" as of late after day 10. See the link below for that disco. Yeah, we all know the cold is coming, met winter is still a couple weeks out. I absolutely hate the cold and dry though, does nothing but rattle the nerves and send the heating bill skyward. At-least here, this fall seems to be about avg in terms of temp and precip. I will be concerned about Dec if we do not see a pattern break start showing up when peering into the middle of next month, especially if the neg anomalies persist through the Pac NW, western Canada, and AK, which both the GFS and GGEM ens means show in fantasy range. :yikes:

NE sub disco about the EC weeklies

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ORH_wxman stated in the NE sub last night that while they nailed the cold at the end of Oct, they have been pretty "volatile" as of late after day 10. See the link below for that disco. Yeah, we all know the cold is coming, met winter is still a couple weeks out. I absolutely hate the cold and dry though, does nothing but rattle the nerves and send the heating bill skyward. At-least here, this fall seems to be about avg in terms of temp and precip. I will be concerned about Dec if we do not see a pattern break start showing up when peering into the middle of next month, especially if the neg anomalies persist through the Pac NW, western Canada, and AK, which both the GFS and GGEM ens means show in fantasy range. :yikes:

NE sub disco about the EC weeklies

That was a depressing way to start my work day...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 for a low this morning with scattered frost (GSP recorded their first freeze on Oct 30th)

I'm not concerned about the long-term models - the pattern will change.

I'm embracing this beautiful weather especially after the scorching hot summer.

As for upcoming winter weather, I hope its deferred until after the holidays and this nice weather persists. After the 6+ inches of snow Greenville rec'd last January, I'm done with snow for at least the next couple of months. The snow lingered here for a week and I couldn't get out of my neighborhood for 3 days (very few plows here for the secondary roads).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why are folks thinking that we should get Winter like cold in November or even the first half of December now lately? Speaking of the Euro, it hasn't got much of anything right this year, especially beyond 5 days. I wouldn't pay that much mind to its weeklies for sure. You'd have better luck watching the GFS operational, literally, through the 384 hour. Just my 2 cents.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why are folks thinking that we should get Winter like cold in November or even the first half of December now lately? Speaking of the Euro, it hasn't got much of anything right this year, especially beyond 5 days. I wouldn't pay that much mind to its weeklies for sure. You'd have better luck watching the GFS operational, literally, through the 384 hour. Just my 2 cents.

Yep....I got my first freeze 5 days later than last year! If I get my first sleet/snow 5 days after Xmas, I doubt it will kill me :) T

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why are folks thinking that we should get Winter like cold in November or even the first half of December now lately? Speaking of the Euro, it hasn't got much of anything right this year, especially beyond 5 days. I wouldn't pay that much mind to its weeklies for sure. You'd have better luck watching the GFS operational, literally, through the 384 hour. Just my 2 cents.

I think it's because the last few winters are fresh in peoples minds and they are being used as a litmus test for this season. Reality is the last few winters were colder and snowier than climo for much of the southeast and a repeat of those winters is not something we should expect. I also think becaue the current pattern reeks of La Nina it is causing some folks, including myself to think that it translates later in the season to more of the same. A La Nina dominated pattern with transient cold shots mixed in, with little blocking to lock the cold in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why are folks thinking that we should get Winter like cold in November or even the first half of December now lately? Speaking of the Euro, it hasn't got much of anything right this year, especially beyond 5 days. I wouldn't pay that much mind to its weeklies for sure. You'd have better luck watching the GFS operational, literally, through the 384 hour. Just my 2 cents.

Im wondering the same things Robert. We are supposed to warm up to a balmy 55 today thats 9 degrees below normal!! Gonna be a weenie filled winter I fear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why are folks thinking that we should get Winter like cold in November or even the first half of December now lately? Speaking of the Euro, it hasn't got much of anything right this year, especially beyond 5 days. I wouldn't pay that much mind to its weeklies for sure. You'd have better luck watching the GFS operational, literally, through the 384 hour. Just my 2 cents.

Of course the models are wrong when they show warm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it's because the last few winters are fresh in peoples minds and they are being used as a litmus test for this season. Reality is the last few winters were colder and snowier than climo for much of the southeast and a repeat of those winters is not something we should expect. I also think becaue the current pattern reeks of La Nina it is causing some folks, including myself to think that it translates later in the season to more of the same. A La Nina dominated pattern with transient cold shots mixed in, with little blocking to lock the cold in.

Well people need to recheck their memory because last Novemeber was warm not cold. anyone wishing for a cold November should snap out of it..... we shouldn't even begin to look for cold weather around the SE until we get into December. At this point in time you want a couple of things: 1. snow cover to be getting a nice foothold in Canada, 2. Siberia to go into the DEEP freeze. Both #1 and 2 is eithe going on now or starting too so everyone just relax. I know that is a simplistic view but it's a good enough place to start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why are folks thinking that we should get Winter like cold in November or even the first half of December now lately? Speaking of the Euro, it hasn't got much of anything right this year, especially beyond 5 days. I wouldn't pay that much mind to its weeklies for sure. You'd have better luck watching the GFS operational, literally, through the 384 hour. Just my 2 cents.

The GFS has been pretty spot on recently! It's forecasted the past 4/5 fronts pretty darn well. Yes, it didn't have the EXACT solution, if memory serves, it forecasted a cut-off low through TN but in actuality a deeper trough moved through (correct me if I'm wrong as my memory isn't as good as yours :P)

As others have said, many of us across the Deep South and into the Carolinas have experienced BELOW normal temperatures for the month of November so far. It will take a major torch for these anomalies to become closer to average, which I don't believe will happen.

As you've stated a number of times, the flow is ridiculously charged and energetic right now! Yes, we'll be warm for a few days here and there but a cold front will sweep through dropping/teasing us with colder weather every week. It happened this week, it happened last week, it will happen next week. Hell, Columbus hit 32 degrees this morning! Want to know when we hit 32 last year!? November 28th!!!!! I'd say we're doing pretty darn well for getting some decent fronts through here.

If we can ever get the NAO to take a dive, which will happen at SOME point this winter, then WATCH OUT BELOW! With how cold and snow packed Canada is going to get over the next month, we could be in store for at least one, it not two, good snows into central Georgia! Those in the Carolinas will get their fair share of the white stuff too.

Remember everyone, patience is a virtue! Just wait it out and back away from the cliff... :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well people need to recheck their memory because last Novemeber was warm not cold. anyone wishing for a cold November should snap out of it..... we shouldn't even begin to look for cold weather around the SE until we get into December. At this point in time you want a couple of things: 1. snow cover to be getting a nice foothold in Canada, 2. Siberia to go into the DEEP freeze. Both #1 and 2 is eithe going on now or starting too so everyone just relax. I know that is a simplistic view but it's a good enough place to start.

What did the Greenland blocking look like last November? Wasn't it clear at this time last year that we were headed towards blocking and cooler temperatures in early December? I think the warm vs. cold November temps is less important as the pattern we are in. I do not remember the Pacific looking the way it does now last year, it's flat out ugly and we have a -PNA off the charts. The thread that was linked into our thread here a few posts back was very bleak for even late November into early December. There was a mod/met who was just saying today that all the predictions of the cold settling down into the CONUS by late November and early December is trending towards a bust for the moment. I don't expect cold in November but a pattern that looks good would be better no question about it. I have no doubts about cold shots this winter, my concern and the concerns of others I think is that Greenland blocking does not grab hold like it has the past few winters and we never really lock in cold for the east for long enough to get a storm to strike at the same time.

I honestly feel like I'm ticking off some people(not you in particular) in this thread with my thoughts, if so that's not fair. It is what it is, I love talking about cold and snow but if all the models and factors coming together point to warm that's what I'm going to talk about. If we start seeing signs of a pattern change that would deliver cold to us then that's what I would talk about.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What did the Greenland blocking look like last November? Wasn't it clear at this time last year that we were headed towards blocking and cooler temperatures in early December?

If memory serves, people were somewhat frantic last year about when the cold air would eventually show up. It was present in the long range, but kept getting pushed back. Around the beginning of December, though, the pattern changed rapidly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What did the Greenland blocking look like last November? Wasn't it clear at this time last year that we were headed towards blocking and cooler temperatures in early December? I think the warm vs. cold November temps is less important as the pattern we are in. I do not remember the Pacific looking the way it does now last year, it's flat out ugly and we have a -PNA off the charts. The thread that was linked into our thread here a few posts back was very bleak for even late November into early December. There was a mod/met who was just saying today that all the predictions of the cold settling down into the CONUS by late November and early December is trending towards a bust for the moment. I don't expect cold in November but a pattern that looks good would be better no question about it. I have no doubts about cold shots this winter, my concern and the concerns of others I think is that Greenland blocking does not grab hold like it has the past few winters and we never really lock in cold for the east for long enough to get a storm to strike at the same time.

I honestly feel like I'm ticking off some people(not you in particular) in this thread with my thoughts, if so that's not fair. It is what it is, I love talking about cold and snow but if all the models and factors coming together point to warm that's what I'm going to talk about. If we start seeing signs of a pattern change that would deliver cold to us then that's what I would talk about.

I don't remember exactly but I don't think the models were showing any cold weather in the long range until we got close to this time last year if not later but I'm going completely off memory.

You aren't upsetting me by any means and always appreciate reading people's views even if I don't agree with them because I am by no means an expert which means I'm wrong a lot. I believe what some people are getting "upset" about is that some on here are already acting like the winter is toast for us. This time of year is full of transition across the globe and just because the pacific isn't looking good now or for the near future doesn't mean it will stay that way. There are signs also pointing to a favorable winter for us so I try not to look just at the negatives. the SST's in the N. Atlantic are favorable, the snowpack in Siberia is sufficient, and the snowpack in Canada is dramatically increasing. We have also been in a sustained -NAO cylce (which Foothills has pointed out numerous times) so look for the -NAO to come back sooner rather than later.

I'd much rather have a warm November if that means a better chance of having a cold December/January. Remember that weather goes in cycles... If it was cold now it would most likely mean a resetting of the pattern sometime in December which could have meant a warm Christmas/early January which is getting into prime snow time for us. Just a week ago the Long Range was looking good so there is not reason this time next week wont look better for us in the LR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't remember exactly but I don't think the models were showing any cold weather in the long range until we got close to this time last year if not later but I'm going completely off memory.

You aren't upsetting me by any means and always appreciate reading people's views even if I don't agree with them because I am by no means an expert which means I'm wrong a lot. I believe what some people are getting "upset" about is that some on here are already acting like the winter is toast for us. This time of year is full of transition across the globe and just because the pacific isn't looking good now or for the near future doesn't mean it will stay that way. There are signs also pointing to a favorable winter for us so I try not to look just at the negatives. the SST's in the N. Atlantic are favorable, the snowpack in Siberia is sufficient, and the snowpack in Canada is dramatically increasing. We have also been in a sustained -NAO cylce (which Foothills has pointed out numerous times) so look for the -NAO to come back sooner rather than later.

I'd much rather have a warm November if that means a better chance of having a cold December/January. Remember that weather goes in cycles... If it was cold now it would most likely mean a resetting of the pattern sometime in December which could have meant a warm Christmas/early January which is getting into prime snow time for us. Just a week ago the Long Range was looking good so there is not reason this time next week wont look better for us in the LR.

This is the brightest spot I find when I look at the big picture. The pattern will change and as you said with the less than favorable pattern we are in now and for the foreseeable future it could spell good timing for prime time snow season in the south coinciding with a favorable pattern. I just hope when the pattern flips it sticks for a good while to give us some chances at snowstorms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's obvious La-Nina is going to take control of the pattern soon. How long this lasts is the question. The MEI (which represents total ENSO conditions) definitely shot down over Sept/Oct and perhaps we're seeing the models picking up on the results. What we're seeing projected is what would have happened last year without the -NAO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Down to 30.6 this morning. Just now reached the 50 degree mark for the day. It's been chilly!! I love this weather. It's about as perfect of a November as you can get. I see it's going to warm up a little next week but nothing above 65ish. Bring it on! I'll be looking for real cold starting in mid-December. The snow will make it here once it actually becomes winter (at least for those of us in WNC; I'm not too up-to-date on my GA weather norms). No panic here. Just along for the ride! :scooter:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Down to 30.6 this morning. Just now reached the 50 degree mark for the day. It's been chilly!! I love this weather. It's about as perfect of a November as you can get. I see it's going to warm up a little next week but nothing above 65ish. Bring it on! I'll be looking for real cold starting in mid-December. The snow will make it here once it actually becomes winter (at least for those of us in WNC; I'm not too up-to-date on my GA weather norms). No panic here. Just along for the ride! :scooter:

Very nice November so far, and I'd trade November and December being seasonably mild for a cold and wintry January and February 100,000 times out of 100,000 times. I have not followed late October and November closely like I have this year, I'm definitely looking forward to learning more about this time of year weather wise. I'm along for the ride warm, cold or both and look forward to some threats to track. Staying up late for the 0Z Euro to bring us hope or dash our fantasies. Perhaps I should go tell my doctor about my panic problem and get a month or two supply of some pills to get me through this unfavorable time....:lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's obvious La-Nina is going to take control of the pattern soon. How long this lasts is the question. The MEI (which represents total ENSO conditions) definitely shot down over Sept/Oct and perhaps we're seeing the models picking up on the results. What we're seeing projected is what would have happened last year without the -NAO.

Which is why I believe with the parameters given, last year was a 1 in 100 type winter. You can't expect to win with those odds every year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very nice November so far, and I'd trade November and December being seasonably mild for a cold and wintry January and February 100,000 times out of 100,000 times. I have not followed late October and November closely like I have this year, I'm definitely looking forward to learning more about this time of year weather wise. I'm along for the ride warm, cold or both and look forward to some threats to track. Staying up late for the 0Z Euro to bring us hope or dash our fantasies. Perhaps I should go tell my doctor about my panic problem and get a month or two supply of some pills to get me through this unfavorable time....:lol:

You gotta share though...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't remember exactly but I don't think the models were showing any cold weather in the long range until we got close to this time last year if not later but I'm going completely off memory.

You aren't upsetting me by any means and always appreciate reading people's views even if I don't agree with them because I am by no means an expert which means I'm wrong a lot. I believe what some people are getting "upset" about is that some on here are already acting like the winter is toast for us. This time of year is full of transition across the globe and just because the pacific isn't looking good now or for the near future doesn't mean it will stay that way. There are signs also pointing to a favorable winter for us so I try not to look just at the negatives. the SST's in the N. Atlantic are favorable, the snowpack in Siberia is sufficient, and the snowpack in Canada is dramatically increasing. We have also been in a sustained -NAO cylce (which Foothills has pointed out numerous times) so look for the -NAO to come back sooner rather than later.

I'd much rather have a warm November if that means a better chance of having a cold December/January. Remember that weather goes in cycles... If it was cold now it would most likely mean a resetting of the pattern sometime in December which could have meant a warm Christmas/early January which is getting into prime snow time for us. Just a week ago the Long Range was looking good so there is not reason this time next week wont look better for us in the LR.

Not meaning to be a debbie downer as Wes would say but, the sad thing is, that is not always the case. The Winter percentage correlation according to NOAA a few years back('90's) was if November was on the cold side there was a 60% chance the Winter would be. I don't know what the updated % is now but, of the cold versus mild winters around here, the odds are about 65% when Novie ends up cold. The obvious best thing to do before making any presumptions is look up the cold winters and then check out the preceding November data. Even if it's still 60/40 that could still be coincidental as it's close.

Also, as far as a cyclic change, if enough drivers favor or force the pattern to dominate one way, any change would be short lived and what many would consider not a true pattern change. Consider some of the all time great winters versus the all time warm ones. A locked in pattern was observed much of the time. Sure, some short lived breaks occurred due to convolution etc.,.

I will say, as others are, that if fairly significant players don't rise up to fight that Pacific pattern that's locking in, odds will easily favor a mild SE winter. The -EPO along with a significant SW event may be what it will take to set things off as once a well defined -AO/NAO is in place, the other favorable mechanisms would probably be able to sustain it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...