dsaur Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Looks like I'm apt to get my first freeze tonight. Guess I'll be running around the yard nekked at midnight....a promise I made myself back in the worst of the summer heat Funny how it seems less appealing now, than in did in July, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Since this is discussion and not banter - a real weather question - what do you all see this -PNA doing to us as we move past Turkey Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 The models aren't showing it yet, but its the kind of look that could happen, with overrunning cold rain in the South and MidAtlantic. As others pointed out , any -NAO will act to make a supressed flow in the country, otherwise we'd be in Southeast ridging a lot. Once the pattern changes in the Gulf of Alaska and a western ridge pops up, then we will turn much colder. I'm still leaning toward last week of Nov/first Dec. This is what I was talking about. The Bermuda ridge is neatly placed far enough offshore such that the active westerlies dip down enough and have enough s/w to kink, something the models don't see too well in a rough zonal flow. Hence, now a wave, and more rain for the East, including Southeast, next week. Thought I share this with you all. A beautiful sunset with a golden/slight pink hue across the sky. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Nice photo. I was outside at sunset and boy was it a nice view. The way the lower angle sun casts a golden light on the nearly peak colored leaves...every year around this time when you have a front go through it can make for a stunning sunset. We've had quite a few of the best sunsets in years here lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 This is what I was talking about. The Bermuda ridge is neatly placed far enough offshore such that the active westerlies dip down enough and have enough s/w to kink, something the models don't see too well in a rough zonal flow. Hence, now a wave, and more rain for the East, including Southeast, next week. Robert, This is also the very reason I can see parts of the southeast ending up at or below average for the month of November, especially Tennessee, North Carolina, and maybe parts of northern MS,AL,GA and SC. That kind of a setup will not allow for a torch from the southeast ridge, and rain every few days will also aid in holding positive departures in check. All in all, pretty fascinating to see how this will evolve in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Robert, This is also the very reason I can see parts of the southeast ending up at or below average for the month of November, especially Tennessee, North Carolina, and maybe parts of northern MS,AL,GA and SC. That kind of a setup will not allow for a torch from the southeast ridge, and rain every few days will also aid in holding positive departures in check. All in all, pretty fascinating to see how this will evolve in the coming weeks. very well could be below normal. I know it is here in NC so far for sure. I'm getting more and more off the warm train for next week, as I'm noticing each run of the Day 5 and beyond runs continue to want to OVERDO the ridging in the Southeast. I've been noticing this effect , the Southeast ridging keeps getting blunted in the longer range, squashed, not as strong or long lived. There's just too many extremely strong s/w embedded in the Pacific flow, and if you have a Newfoundland Low or Hudson Bay vortex, that would probably help deflect the Southeast ridging, and so far it looks like we'll have a vortex in one of those spots. So, meh, it could be above normal in the Southeast, but probably just ahead of a cold front for a day of strong sw flow, but nothing too terribly above normal, plus the cool downs (like now) have been constant overperformers in TN and NC that I've noticed...maybe not so in GA yet. Someone asked me of the ways I go about making a forecast and one of those is just not to take anything on a model exactly, but consider the pattern it portrays instead. I've lived long enough to see that the 500mb map I posted early is replete with embedded waves that even if weak, will be rain makers, and also having a vortex on both ends of the North American coast is a sign of a supressed flow, with building high anomalies to the north, near the Pole or somewhere between Greenland Scandinavia and the Pole, and lo and behold, the models are now showing it. Its about like "forecasting what the models are about to forecast" if that makes any sense. By the way, nice full moon tonight. My cam doesn't do it justice but you can see a few craters anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I noticed the moon as I was headed home from work today, just creeping up on the horizon. Absolutely HUGE and awesome to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Robert, are we looking at several days of rain next week? What about coast around Kure Beach area? I am going fishing thurs-sat down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Looks like I'm apt to get my first freeze tonight. Guess I'll be running around the yard nekked at midnight....a promise I made myself back in the worst of the summer heat Funny how it seems less appealing now, than in did in July, lol. T As are we up here, just not the nekked part. We've only had three frosts so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevinhmd Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Wow, I'm at 38 already, with a dewpoint of 15.2 (!) Gonna be chilly around here tonight! (If the wind dies down any...which doesn't look like it will much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 What a difference calm winds make. Newnan south of ATL is already at freezing with calm winds while up here in Dahlonega it's still 41 with 10-20mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 We're getting some really odd gusts of high wind around here tonight. It's going from dead calm to 30-40 gusts in a few seconds and then back calm again for the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 FWIW, the 12z euro ensembles apparently looked bleak and the weeklies were even worse. Will in one of the NE threads said they almost looked like Dec 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 FWIW, the 12z euro ensembles apparently looked bleak and the weeklies were even worse. Will in one of the NE threads said they almost looked like Dec 2001. It's ugly in the Pacific right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 We're getting some really odd gusts of high wind around here tonight. It's going from dead calm to 30-40 gusts in a few seconds and then back calm again for the past hour. Likewise down this way. Went from a light breeze to 20 mph wind gusts all the sudden. It also doesn't help matters that it's currently 44 but the wind chill reading is 38. I can't stand out there any longer than 5 minutes without getting too chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 As are we up here, just not the nekked part. We've only had three frosts so far. So far this has seemed a pretty normal fall around here, with pockets of cooler air at night. The days haven't been overly hot, and I been consistently cooler than the offical obs at the UGa Experiment Station. Each front, as the days pass, has gotten a bit cooler, with my lowest being 33.1 while the Exp. Sta. was 35+. I'm only at 42 now, but around me are lower temps. And it has been that way through the last month. Not as warm, ultimately, as official temps. If I don't hit freezing tonight, probably will tomorrow night. The Carolina's have been excelling in their cool downs, with their cads much more vigorious, and not working much into Ga., which seems right for this time of year. We'll catch up in a few weeks...pretty much on schedule, is my guess. Last year my first frost was in Oct. but it didn't freeze until the 6th of Nov. and didn't freeze again for 20 days. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 The 0Z GFS shows a nice cad event for us! It has temps in the 40's on Thursday and Friday down to Atlanta with stiff east winds and drizzle/light rain. What a nice treat if it verifies. I thought I remember Robert mentioning a possible CAD signature recently. Edit : Got a nice round of rain here too, about .12" this morning, which I wasn't expecting. Looking down the road, there's probably more periods of rain for the Southeast. The models seem to over build the Southeast ridge, but the way the flow is so energetic and supressed, and thanks to height anomalies closer to the NP, this equates to faster zonal , but almost supressed flow. One system after another comes across the country, and the cold air can press down into the northern half of the US pretty easily , especially since a 50/50 low wants to be there, and the flow is sort of supressed. So despite the -PDO and western trough, we still don't get that warm for too long of a period. In fact damming could be an issue next week. The models aren't showing it yet, but its the kind of look that could happen, with overrunning cold rain in the South and MidAtlantic. As others pointed out , any -NAO will act to make a supressed flow in the country, otherwise we'd be in Southeast ridging a lot. Once the pattern changes in the Gulf of Alaska and a western ridge pops up, then we will turn much colder. I'm still leaning toward last week of Nov/first Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 FWIW, the 12z euro ensembles apparently looked bleak and the weeklies were even worse. Will in one of the NE threads said they almost looked like Dec 2001. I've just had that feeling over the past few weeks. It's so eerily similar in many ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Finally had some frost on my car this morning It's going to be a rather cool day here in West Central Georgia/East Central Alabama! A few high clouds will travel all the way across the US by tomorrow night, which should make for another gorgeous sunset! We're also a bit below average, in general (highs and lows combined), but only because our overnight lows have been much cooler than average. We've already popped 4 days above 75 degrees another 4 below 60 (including today). All in all, not bad! Looking forward to some much needed rain next Wednesday/Thursday! More than this .05 - .25" stuff we've seen so far this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 The 0Z GFS shows a nice cad event for us! It has temps in the 40's on Thursday and Friday down to Atlanta with stiff east winds and drizzle/light rain. What a nice treat if it verifies. I thought I remember Robert mentioning a possible CAD signature recently. Bingo. It has a nice little southern system coming at us around Wed or Thurs and CAD may linger into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 FWIW, last November my average monthly temp was 51.1 for the entire month, so far I've averaging 51.1 and we're only 11 days into the month. If it's still dark when you read this, that small white light is the moon on my webcam shot below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Cold temps yesterday afternoon and overnight have allowed the ski resorts to begin blowing snow. Cataloochee and Sugar began making snow during the early afternoon hours yesterday and have been going strong overnight into today. With temps below freezing for the slopes they will continue to make more today and tonight. They are announcing an opening day for this Saturday, however they will make the call late in the day today. Here are some links to see the white stuff falling: Cataloochee and Sugar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 FWIW, the 12z euro ensembles apparently looked bleak and the weeklies were even worse. Will in one of the NE threads said they almost looked like Dec 2001. The Euro weeklies are very bleak...no sign of cold and by week four almost the entire country is warm including most of Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 29° this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 29.9 was my low. That damn Euro, some nerve showing heat. I only pay attention to those that show cold anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 The Euro weeklies are very bleak...no sign of cold and by week four almost the entire country is warm including most of Canada... Maybe by Christmas the pattern will change for the cold? But week four is getting real close to Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 26 at my house this morning. I didn't expect it to get this chilly. That counts as a hard freeze I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Maybe by Christmas the pattern will change for the cold? But week four is getting real close to Christmas! Week 4 is 12/11, Christmas is in 6.5 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Bottomed out at 37/27 this am, winds stayed up overnight, 5-7 mph, and the bl never decoupled. Should be a different story tonight with the winds going calm, MHX forecasting 31 and will be interested if we see upper 20's with another hard freeze. Brisk and chilly day on tap, elevated fire danger with low rh's and winds gusting 20-30. EURO ens mean from overnight does not look good through day 10, still no real pattern change in sight, transient spells of cold with the -PNA overwhelming the entire flow over CONUS and lifting heights east of the MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 The EURO weeklies do look bleak, but they end on Dec 11th, if on Dec 11th going out to Jan 11th they don't show something more promising then it's time to worry, I picked Jan 11th as my first widespread snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 First freeze. 30.7 T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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