dsaur Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I've been getting light showers through the evening. Not much...maybe 5 or 6 hundredths, but the ground is wet, so I'll take it! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Dead on .25" in the bucket from last night. We lucked out and caught most of the heavier showers. It's very windy now and I'm afraid this is the end of leaf season. Sure there will be some holding on but all of the beauty from the last couple of weeks will be on the ground now. I saw my first flock of migratory geese this morning right on cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Huge oak tree in my front yard is just now reaching peak. Each year, it's anyone's guess as to whether it will be brown or red; this is one of the rare "red years." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 One of the foggier mornings in recent memory here in ENC... Took the wife to work at the hospital around 6 with solid <1/8 mile vis on the drive into town, even going down to near 0 at times. I never understood why some of the same districts put a 2 hr delay on schools for fog, and others, namely ours do not. The last time I can remember it this bad was a couple years ago, morning after our 3" IP storm when the fog rolled in around 9am and spent most of the afternoon burning off. Huge oak tree in my front yard is just now reaching peak. Each year, it's anyone's guess as to whether it will be brown or red; this is one of the rare "red years." Both my oaks, swamp chestnut and white are brown this year Dogwoods and maples did real well though, nice crimson color on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Just a quick note about November thus far....temps are running a good bit below average. Some select cities....temps relative to average through Wednesday 11/9/11..... RDU: -3.7 GSO: -3.0 CLT: -2.9 GSP: -2.9 AVL: -3.3 HKY: -2.6 This values will obviously drop further with the incoming shot of cold the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I've been getting light showers through the evening. Not much...maybe 5 or 6 hundredths, but the ground is wet, so I'll take it! T Got a nice round of rain here too, about .12" this morning, which I wasn't expecting. Looking down the road, there's probably more periods of rain for the Southeast. The models seem to over build the Southeast ridge, but the way the flow is so energetic and supressed, and thanks to height anomalies closer to the NP, this equates to faster zonal , but almost supressed flow. One system after another comes across the country, and the cold air can press down into the northern half of the US pretty easily , especially since a 50/50 low wants to be there, and the flow is sort of supressed. So despite the -PDO and western trough, we still don't get that warm for too long of a period. In fact damming could be an issue next week. The models aren't showing it yet, but its the kind of look that could happen, with overrunning cold rain in the South and MidAtlantic. As others pointed out , any -NAO will act to make a supressed flow in the country, otherwise we'd be in Southeast ridging a lot. Once the pattern changes in the Gulf of Alaska and a western ridge pops up, then we will turn much colder. I'm still leaning toward last week of Nov/first Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 One of the foggier mornings in recent memory here in ENC... Took the wife to work at the hospital around 6 with solid <1/8 mile vis on the drive into town, even going down to near 0 at times. I never understood why some of the same districts put a 2 hr delay on schools for fog, and others, namely ours do not. The last time I can remember it this bad was a couple years ago, morning after our 3" IP storm when the fog rolled in around 9am and spent most of the afternoon burning off. Both my oaks, swamp chestnut and white are brown this year Dogwoods and maples did real well though, nice crimson color on them. Worst fog in a while is an understatement. I was trying to hunt but literally couldn't see more than 50 yards at times. Ended up coming home and it seems to have started burning off quickly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Got a nice round of rain here too, about .12" this morning, which I wasn't expecting. Man, did I luck out over night! I've got .3 in the gage now. I was not hoping for anything like that much. I've done better than expected with the last two events. Hope that is a trend going forward. Sure hope those cad signals strengthen. I'd love to see some cloudy cold overrunning going into the festive season. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Huge oak tree in my front yard is just now reaching peak. Each year, it's anyone's guess as to whether it will be brown or red; this is one of the rare "red years." Winter storm warning red? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Winter storm warning red? Almost, haha. I'll post a pic when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 .12 in Johnson City from the cold front. Sitting at 44 degrees with clouds and breezy as we approach noon. Awesome day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I keep reading where some keep thinking that because it is not cold yet in november and that pattern has not changed yet that it might be a good idea to cancel winter???? Come on people it is not even the middle of november still over a month until regular winter officially begins not meteorlogical winter. This is the first year in my area that we had 4 frosts before november 1st and this happens rarely, as normally this does not occur until sometime in november. Just because we had snow last christmas outside of the mountains does not mean we should come to expect it each year in december let alone november down south. That will probably be a once in a lifetime occurrence for most of us if we continue to live down here. I have lived in the south for over 30 years and for 99% of these winters we had no real threat of snow or ice or locked in sustained cold until after christmas. Give the seasons a chance to transition and relax and enjoy the great weather that we are having now. Old man winter will be paying us a visit before too long! It sure beats the heck out of the 95+ heat we were experiencing on a daily basis just a short time ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Obs report: Flurries were observed in Sylva at the Ingles parking lot 10 min ago. The store manager actually announced it over the intercom, lol! Must be there way of saying buy more bread and milk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 With the next couple of days averaging below to well below normal, it's going to be hard to erase the negative departures for the month that have already been established. Who knows what the winter will bring, but it's looking more and more likely that the current month will at the worst be average in the temperature department for the month of November, especially if a -NAO suppresses the ridging in the Atlantic. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Sitting at 34 degrees currently, with the wind howling out of the NW at 25mph. I think I may have seen a flurry or two, but it might just be the lack of sleep playing tricks on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 With the next couple of days averaging below to well below normal, it's going to be hard to erase the negative departures for the month that have already been established. Who knows what the winter will bring, but it's looking more and more likely that the current month will at the worst be average in the temperature department for the month of November, especially if a -NAO suppresses the ridging in the Atlantic. Just my two cents. I agree with you in a few areas but I would not nessacarilly apply that to everywhere in the southeast. If the models are correct November in my area is likely to be above normal. There are 5-10 degree above average temps as far as the eye can see on the GFS after this brief cooldown. The average tempature drops off rapidly this time of year, when the warmup returns it will be even more above normal for the time of year. I am speaking about North Georgia mainly as the closer you get to the southeast ridge the more the temps will reflect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Definitely getting some flurries now. Temp down another step to 33...wind chill 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Well good news and bad news on the 12Z GFS long range. Some nasty cold building in Canada but the ridge is going strong down here. If we could tap that cold it would be pretty intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 .07" total here. I was impressed that the rain was a little heavier than I expected. Good enough for me I suppose. It was kinda foggy out here earlier but that has now disappeared and currently under cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Wow, miserable day in Charlotte today. Foggy, Cloudy, and Cold. Good coffee and movie weather though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Sitting at 34 degrees currently, with the wind howling out of the NW at 25mph. I think I may have seen a flurry or two, but it might just be the lack of sleep playing tricks on me. Now thats my kind of weather..lucky dog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Both my oaks, swamp chestnut and white are brown this year Dogwoods and maples did real well though, nice crimson color on them. The oaks were a beautiful orange color while the dogwoods and maples were the deepest purple I have seen in quite awhile. The colors this fall have been fantastic. Congrats on your mod-ship I'm glad Lookout finally has a tag team partner....long overdue. Got a nice round of rain here too, about .12" this morning, which I wasn't expecting. Looking down the road, there's probably more periods of rain for the Southeast. The models seem to over build the Southeast ridge, but the way the flow is so energetic and supressed, and thanks to height anomalies closer to the NP, this equates to faster zonal , but almost supressed flow. One system after another comes across the country, and the cold air can press down into the northern half of the US pretty easily , especially since a 50/50 low wants to be there, and the flow is sort of supressed. So despite the -PDO and western trough, we still don't get that warm for too long of a period. In fact damming could be an issue next week. The models aren't showing it yet, but its the kind of look that could happen, with overrunning cold rain in the South and MidAtlantic. As others pointed out , any -NAO will act to make a supressed flow in the country, otherwise we'd be in Southeast ridging a lot. Once the pattern changes in the Gulf of Alaska and a western ridge pops up, then we will turn much colder. I'm still leaning toward last week of Nov/first Dec. I'll enjoy this beautiful fall weather as long as it lasts and will wait patiently for the ridge to build in the west, along with a beautiful block to the north Man, did I luck out over night! I've got .3 in the gage now. I was not hoping for anything like that much. I've done better than expected with the last two events. Hope that is a trend going forward. Sure hope those cad signals strengthen. I'd love to see some cloudy cold overrunning going into the festive season. T I had enough sprinkles to gather .02 in the bucket. Definitely getting some flurries now. Temp down another step to 33...wind chill 20. That sounds like a perfect afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Wow, miserable day in Charlotte today. Foggy, Cloudy, and Cold. Good coffee and movie weather though. Agreed! I drove down to Charlotte with a buddy of mine to play disc golf at Niven Community Park this morning. I wasn't expecting any rain with this weak front, but it rained pretty much the entire time we were playing. Cool, cloudy, and drizzly. But, what's the old saying? "A bad day on the course is still better than a good day at work!" I got 0.01 inch(es?) of rain overnight from the frontal passage. It's definitely sharply cooler and windier behind the front here in Hickory. The temp's dropped 9 degrees from our high of 61 just two hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Definitely getting some flurries now. Temp down another step to 33...wind chill 20. Congrats on the flurries CAD, always nice when mother nature drops a few tokens in Nov. Is this the 2nd one of the fall for you? Noticed Blacksburg put 20% probs in the grid for tonight and tomorrow, so maybe a few more to whet the taste buds! The oaks were a beautiful orange color while the dogwoods and maples were the deepest purple I have seen in quite awhile. The colors this fall have been fantastic. Congrats on your mod-ship I'm glad Lookout finally has a tag team partner....long overdue. Thanks buckeye! Just got done looking over the 12z EC, no absence of cold in Canada at day 7, we just need a mechanism to bring it south and east, which does not appear to happen through day 10. In fact, the neg anomalies reload into the Pacific NW and BC. One positive from the run, strong signal for blocking near the pole at 240 hrs, displaced closer to Siberia, but as you can see below, the pos h5 departures extend down towards Greenland, and this run trends the NAO to slightly pos around 11/18, before going neg again. We are most likely going to have this cold locked into Canada for awhile, just a matter of time before we get a real taste of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Again last Nov from now till Thanksgiving was warm and we didnt really start seeing signs of a big change until the models ran around the 11-13th and then they were back and forth a few days until locking in on the big greenland block so while I dont think we will see as a dramatic change as we did last year but eventually we will see the pattern change we just got to hope it is a prolonged change with good blocking instead of quick shots of cold.......I fear many here are spoiled from the last few seasons who would thought we would be antsy in mid Nov lol I personally would settle for one 6" snowfall so I can keep the record going one this winter would make 4 straight winters with a 6"+ event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Better to have the cold stay bottled up there than bringing it in toward the Southeast at an early period, I'd say. Not only will this enhance the airmass before it's ready to head southward due to it staying locked in Canada (also being aided by increased snowcover) but this will also make it more difficult for it to be moderated and thus can remain cold for an extended period of time. The only thing that could really eradicate it would be a warmer airmass that's strong enough to push it out of here or perhaps be strong enough to block it from getting any further south. Assuming the pattern flips to the colder side of things for the East later this month, chances for either of those scenarios would be less than it is now. I prefer seeing it arrive a little after Thanksgiving; around the time that we're predicting the pattern change to occur (hopefully for the whole month of December at least) with good blocking established further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Congrats on the flurries CAD, always nice when mother nature drops a few tokens in Nov. Is this the 2nd one of the fall for you? Noticed Blacksburg put 20% probs in the grid for tonight and tomorrow, so maybe a few more to whet the taste buds! 3rd round of flurries so far this fall. I'm ready for the real deal now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Beautiful pink rainbow this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 .16" was my total from last night. Feels great outside today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Thought I share this with you all. A beautiful sunset with a golden/slight pink hue across the sky. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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