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November Discussion


DaculaWeather

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I believe we should pay attention to what may occur in Alaska. This seems to be a whopper of a storm for our extreme northwest folks. It's possible of storm of this magnitude could have some form of effect on us at some point.

Indeed. Is this the type of huge storm that Tom Skilling often says could "buckle" the jet stream way southward in the Eastern half of the continent?

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the storm in Alaska is going to help pull down a lot of cold air into Canada in two different phases over the next 10 days. Plus, a LOT of rain in the northwest US and much of western Canada. The GFS has plenty of areas over 5" of rain along the coast from northern CA up to British Columbia, and many spots over 10" as well. Both models turn Canada really cold for November, so with several more systems coming through esp. the western and southern areas of Canada, snowcover is going to increase rapidly. I don't trust either model much past 5 days right now as to how the flow buckles. The ECM wants to press westerlies pretty far south and have another cold vortex in eastern Canada in addition to the one in far southern Gulf of Alaska. If we get a strong amplification , seriously cold air will get pushed into the states easily around day 10. Also, plenty of rain along the storm track from the Red River to the Lakes. That area is really making out in the precip dept. lately. Not a lot to make it rain in the Southeast , but we will have 2 fronts come through, but don't know how much rain we'll get. Looks like eastern Carolinas won't get much if the models are correct. Tomorrows front won't drop much in the Southeast either, and will probably be a rain shadow for my area.

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the storm in Alaska is going to help pull down a lot of cold air into Canada in two different phases over the next 10 days. Plus, a LOT of rain in the northwest US and much of western Canada. The GFS has plenty of areas over 5" of rain along the coast from northern CA up to British Columbia, and many spots over 10" as well. Both models turn Canada really cold for November, so with several more systems coming through esp. the western and southern areas of Canada, snowcover is going to increase rapidly. I don't trust either model much past 5 days right now as to how the flow buckles. The ECM wants to press westerlies pretty far south and have another cold vortex in eastern Canada in addition to the one in far southern Gulf of Alaska. If we get a strong amplification , seriously cold air will get pushed into the states easily around day 10. Also, plenty of rain along the storm track from the Red River to the Lakes. That area is really making out in the precip dept. lately. Not a lot to make it rain in the Southeast , but we will have 2 fronts come through, but don't know how much rain we'll get. Looks like eastern Carolinas won't get much if the models are correct. Tomorrows front won't drop much in the Southeast either, and will probably be a rain shadow for my area.

I always pay attention to anomalous happenings in and around the weather. A super storm, an amazing July cad with 70's in the midst of 90's, and now I'm amazed at the length and depth of this fall color season. We reached peak two weeks ago, and the trees are still as near as beautiful as I've ever seen them, and only a 3% leaf loss, or so. I am a danger on the road, because I can't keep my eyes off the trees. It has never seemed this vivid in the 30+ years I've lived here, and never come close to staying for this long. I drive around today and I'm as awed as I was in Oct. Don't know what it may portend for the future, or says about the past summer, but I'm paying attention to it's anomalous nature :)

And if I get a foot of sleet, I'll remember it was the year of the color, the summer cad, and the fall super storm in the North West, lol. Tony

And to add to it.....I've had at least 3 frosts but I'm still picking tomatoes, and still have blooms.

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the storm in Alaska is going to help pull down a lot of cold air into Canada in two different phases over the next 10 days. Plus, a LOT of rain in the northwest US and much of western Canada. The GFS has plenty of areas over 5" of rain along the coast from northern CA up to British Columbia, and many spots over 10" as well. Both models turn Canada really cold for November, so with several more systems coming through esp. the western and southern areas of Canada, snowcover is going to increase rapidly. I don't trust either model much past 5 days right now as to how the flow buckles. The ECM wants to press westerlies pretty far south and have another cold vortex in eastern Canada in addition to the one in far southern Gulf of Alaska. If we get a strong amplification , seriously cold air will get pushed into the states easily around day 10. Also, plenty of rain along the storm track from the Red River to the Lakes. That area is really making out in the precip dept. lately. Not a lot to make it rain in the Southeast , but we will have 2 fronts come through, but don't know how much rain we'll get. Looks like eastern Carolinas won't get much if the models are correct. Tomorrows front won't drop much in the Southeast either, and will probably be a rain shadow for my area.

Robert, wouldn't that be for mainly the upper mid-west? Wouldn't a SE ridge still preclude much of that cold air from settling down into the southeast? Wouldn't we also need Greenland blocking to lock the cold in? It seems in the setup you described any cold air from that shot would be transient and possibly modified greatly having hard time pushing SEward. I'm trying to learn as much as I can and would love to hear some feedback about my concerns.

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One would be hard pressed to not love the wx currently, and what is on tap in the extended. 70/55 @ PGV and MHX is forecasting a light freeze Friday night, think that will be our 4th of the season. Beautiful weekend coming up with highs in the lower 60's, and a gradual warm up going into next week with mid 70's!

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Robert, wouldn't that be for mainly the upper mid-west? Wouldn't a SE ridge still preclude much of that cold air from settling down into the southeast? Wouldn't we also need Greenland blocking to lock the cold in? It seems in the setup you described any cold air from that shot would be transient and possibly modified greatly having hard time pushing SEward. I'm trying to learn as much as I can and would love to hear some feedback about my concerns.

Euro looking much better after day 5 with a broad based trough settling into the lower 48 centered in the mid-section along with a greenland block;, mainly east based. That block may still retro in time with the canadian setup that appears to be taking shape. IF the vortex in north central canada drops southward and the one in SE canada work in tandem to pull it back ,i.m.o.

What is your opinion Foothills?

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From Allan Huffman's Examiner page....

However, we swing back above normal as we head into next week as a trough out West helps to poke a ridge up in the Southeast. This should lead to a nice week next week with several days seeing sunny skies and above normal temperatures with afternoon highs near 70.

I think we will see a cool down by the following weekend, but the models are now backing off the strong –NAO signature in the 11-15 day period which means we could see a warm Thanksgiving Week. Obviously, for the cold December ideas to work out we would like to see a colder pattern starting to show up in the 2 week out range but so far it has not steadily been doing that. The –NAO block could come back in subsequent runs, but as of now confidence has decreased significantly at least for it occurring during Thanksgiving Week.

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From Allan Huffman's Examiner page....

However, we swing back above normal as we head into next week as a trough out West helps to poke a ridge up in the Southeast. This should lead to a nice week next week with several days seeing sunny skies and above normal temperatures with afternoon highs near 70.

I think we will see a cool down by the following weekend, but the models are now backing off the strong –NAO signature in the 11-15 day period which means we could see a warm Thanksgiving Week. Obviously, for the cold December ideas to work out we would like to see a colder pattern starting to show up in the 2 week out range but so far it has not steadily been doing that. The –NAO block could come back in subsequent runs, but as of now confidence has decreased significantly at least for it occurring during Thanksgiving Week.

:thumbsdown: boo... As others have stated,even myself at one point, we don't want to get too cold too early and "waste" our favorable pattern on the early part of the year. If we end up with a 2 or 4 week winter and it occurs in the mid January range it could work out really well snowfall wise for places that don't get very much to begin with. All it takes is one storm at the right time to deliver above normal snow for lots of us. If we end up with a torch winter with a short period of -NAO and storms coming on through, I could live with a torch winter with a single blockbuster storm in the middle of said torch.

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Robert, wouldn't that be for mainly the upper mid-west? Wouldn't a SE ridge still preclude much of that cold air from settling down into the southeast? Wouldn't we also need Greenland blocking to lock the cold in? It seems in the setup you described any cold air from that shot would be transient and possibly modified greatly having hard time pushing SEward. I'm trying to learn as much as I can and would love to hear some feedback about my concerns.

Yea, we'd be the last to get cold. But that's normal. Don't sweat anything yet. First Canada will get cold, then a buckling will send cold down into the mainland, somewhere. I haven't seen todays Euro.

One would be hard pressed to not love the wx currently, and what is on tap in the extended. 70/55 @ PGV and MHX is forecasting a light freeze Friday night, think that will be our 4th of the season. Beautiful weekend coming up with highs in the lower 60's, and a gradual warm up going into next week with mid 70's!

I'm loving this weather and this Fall as well. It has just enough change-ups to make everything interesting. Plenty of time to do yard work, anything outside, and then work on some weather stuff on the colder, rainy days. Its nowhere near as boring as I've seen it , esp. from around 2005 to 2009.

Euro looking much better after day 5 with a broad based trough settling into the lower 48 centered in the mid-section along with a greenland block;, mainly east based.

What is your opinion Foothills?

I'll check it out soon. But we're still at a time when the day to day runs change (or can change) a tremendous amount...since its Fall and extremely volatile. The most important thing is to take note where the anomalies are on the hemispheric map and see how they change.

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Yea, we'd be the last to get cold. But that's normal. Don't sweat anything yet. First Canada will get cold, then a buckling will send cold down into the mainland, somewhere. I haven't seen todays Euro.

I'm loving this weather and this Fall as well. It has just enough change-ups to make everything interesting. Plenty of time to do yard work, anything outside, and then work on some weather stuff on the colder, rainy days. Its nowhere near as boring as I've seen it , esp. from around 2005 to 2009.

I'll check it out soon. But we're still at a time when the day to day runs change (or can change) a tremendous amount...since its Fall and extremely volatile. The most important thing is to take note where the anomalies are on the hemispheric map and see how they change.

I'm really trying but I'm having a hard time with that...lol. This fall/winter is like a clock ticking, tick, tick, tick, tick.... I keep waiting for the hammer to drop and for the SE to get some locked in sustained cold. You do make me more at ease though about this season.

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I like the idea of a return to at least seasonal temps after day 10... 12z ECMWF ens mean shows high latitude blocking extending from Greenland back towards the Aleutians with a PV pinching off near the Hudson Bay. Those + anomalies should act in displacing the coldest air away from the pole, and trapping that PV in Canada for awhile, maybe in a favorable state for strengthening. Going to have to be patient in getting those neg anomalies to dislodge from western Canada, but I would be very surprised if we do not get the strongest cold shot of the season thus far by Thanksgiving weekend.

12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

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I like the idea of a return to at least seasonal temps after day 10... 12z ECMWF ens mean shows high latitude blocking extending from Greenland back towards the Aleutians with a PV pinching off near the Hudson Bay. Those + anomalies should act in displacing the coldest air away from the pole, and trapping that PV in Canada for awhile, maybe in a favorable state for strengthening. Going to have to be patient in getting those neg anomalies to dislodge from western Canada, but I would be very surprised if we do not get the strongest cold shot of the season thus far by Thanksgiving weekend.

12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

FINALLY a positive and optimistic post about winter. :) Maybe the tide is tiruning earlier than last year!

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There are definitely some signs december could be warm. The la-nina peaked in sept/oct and the pacific-western CONUS pattern really stinks of la-nina right now. I was waffling for days about whether to go warm/cold for december and went cold. But there is a chance it could be warm if the NAO doesn't cooperate. The pacific certainly doesn't look to cooperate anytime soon unfortunately. However, with the -QBO and recent neg AO/NAO winters i do believe it will eventually change the pattern in our favor. The SST's are not that impressive in the ENSO regions, however, the higher MEI score does indicate La-Nina conditions were in full force the last few months.

MEI

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968

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There are definitely some signs december could be warm. The la-nina peaked in sept/oct and the pacific-western CONUS pattern really stinks of la-nina right now. I was waffling for days about whether to go warm/cold for december and went cold. But there is a chance it could be warm if the NAO doesn't cooperate. The pacific certainly doesn't look to cooperate anytime soon unfortunately. However, with the -QBO and recent neg AO/NAO winters i do believe it will eventually change the pattern in our favor. The SST's are not that impressive in the ENSO regions, however, the higher MEI score does indicate La-Nina conditions were in full force the last few months.

MEI

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968

DT isn't barking, but he's sending some good "maybe's" on his website. We'll just have to wait and see. :popcorn:

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I am liking the couplet developing over the Atlantic, however, with the cold pool off of the northeast extending towards southern Europe, with the warm pool to the north. That's a very good sign for a -NAO heading into winter, statistically speaking. Would like to see that continue to expand. I think this winter will be a battle between the -NAO/La-Nina with the -NAO eventually winning out later in winter as the La-Nina wanes.

anomnight.11.7.2011.gif

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.08" in the bucket from the showers this evening. It appears that there may be more rain on the way, so I'll have a real total tomorrow. Anyways, I'm looking forward to the highs in the mid 50's tomorrow with a 10-20 mph wind! Gonna feel great!

As far as winter goes... I'm really not too concerned with the way its looking. WAY too much negativity on here :lol: After all it is only November. If it's building in Canada its gotta come down here sooner or later! :thumbsup:

btw, nice disco above me guys!

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Last Nov was warm in fact this week thru the first week of Dec last year temps where in the 60-70's here with temps of 67 on turkey day and 71 Nov 31, 66 on Dec 1 and then two days later it snowed and what became a epic spell of winter weather was born. The question I have is since this is around the time the switch to AMWX from Eastern was happening and the early threads on AMEX were kinda right when the change was happening where we thinking big changes were several weeks away or were we doom and gloom since most of the calls on here were warm for last winter.

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