packbacker Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Based on Allan's Analogs for this winter, when November was warmer than average (62.7 for the high) we had great winters for RDU, which I assume translates somewhat to the rest of the SE. When it was a cool November the winters were not good. So we should be rooting for a warm November. Also, I just ran some numbers using the Euro's forecasted high's for the next 10 days and than assumed we would be at average the last 10 or so days of November and RDU will roughly be at an average high of 65, I think we will be colder than average the last week of November so I think we will end up around 64 for the average high for November, but we will see. Nov 1950 - 60 (1.2") Nov 1955 - 60 (2") Nov 1961 - 63 (14.8" - 200% normal) Nov 1970 - 59 (5.9") Nov 2010 - 64 (9") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 1999 was only a great winter because of two weeks of snow and cold. The rest of the winter was rather warm. That is a great winter in my book :-). From mid to end of January it was winterfest around here and than it warmed up. I don't want below average temps for 3 straight months, I though 2009/2010 winter was terrible, RDU was below average in snowfall where everyone else around us (N/S/E/W) was above average for snow and yet we had to put up with frigid temps. No thank you on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 1999 was only a great winter because of two weeks of snow and cold. The rest of the winter was rather warm. But being that it was the best two weeks of your life, you should weight it more heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 This upcoming cold front looks pretty stout. GFS has widespread 20s across northern GA for Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Larry did some great research on this in the past and showed winters in general are pretty crappy after a warm november..especially here in ga where it's harder to get snow/ice than in nc. Didn't we have a warm and dry November in November 2001 followed by a big snowstorm in January 2002 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Based on Allan's Analogs for this winter, when November was warmer than average (62.7 for the high) we had great winters for RDU, which I assume translates somewhat to the rest of the SE. When it was a cool November the winters were not good. So we should be rooting for a warm November. Also, I just ran some numbers using the Euro's forecasted high's for the next 10 days and than assumed we would be at average the last 10 or so days of November and RDU will roughly be at an average high of 65, I think we will be colder than average the last week of November so I think we will end up around 64 for the average high for November, but we will see. Nov 1950 - 60 (1.2") Nov 1955 - 60 (2") Nov 1961 - 63 (14.8" - 200% normal) Nov 1970 - 59 (5.9") Nov 2010 - 64 (9") Larry did some great research on this in the past and showed winters in general are pretty crappy after a warm november..especially here in ga where it's harder to get snow/ice than in nc. hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Didn't we have a warm and dry November in November 2001 followed by a big snowstorm in January 2002 ? Correct http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Correct http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20020102/ That storm sucked IMBY. It snowed all day without accumulating. Finally, after I'd given up hope, a little band sideswiped us and gave us a quick inch. I'm happy that people south of me got to enjoy snow but storms like that always bother me more than when I'm too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Correct http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20020102/ I remember that storm.... it was the last time I can recall having the snow cover all the wild onions in our backyard. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Wow, that sure is a pesky ridge that keeps on flexing it's muscle on the Euro, all the way through 10 days it is persistent. The cold front coming through this week on the 12Z Euro is not quite as stout as the 12Z GFS today. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Getting what we should be getting and that's a warm spell IMO: AO and NAO are running a little high. PNA is running really low. MJO is unfavorable in phase 5. AO and NAO forecasted to dip though,MJO forecasted to swing back around in 1 and 2 in a couple weeks.We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/11/pattern-change-by-the-numbers-2/ good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Both major models have an east based -NAO developing and as we get deeper into November the cold air is going to build rapidly and a piece of the Arctic Vortex will slide into Canada (maybe). I am leaning toward the cold arriving here around the last week of Nov or the first of Dec. (speaking of the below normal type cold). One thing that continues to amaze me from looking at the big picture is just how strong and numerous the shortwaves are in the flow. If that continues, it will make things very interesting later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 http://www.wxrisk.co...-the-numbers-2/ good read. That was a good read. Thanks for posting, as I keep forgetting to check his site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 70 and sunny is fine for me in November. Lets save the cold for when it can snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 http://www.wxrisk.co...-the-numbers-2/ good read. Yea. Looks like the cold will be building into late november and when the pattern finally swings in our favor we could be looking at some really cold temps. And re: foothills post, I like our chances at an interesting december if those s/w keep on trucking once we get some arctic air down in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Did you know Chicago (O'Hare or Midway) has not had a freezing reading yet this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 1999 was only a great winter because of two weeks of snow and cold. The rest of the winter was rather warm. For your backyard maybe. Not everyone lives in your backyard though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 There is sure a great amount of pessimism going around on this board. Here are some quotes from last year on this board: "There is little doubt that it will be noticeably cooler this weekend over the warmth we are experiencing now. But it won't be nearly as bad as initially forecast." Nov 22 "Been extremely warm here today. 70 degrees, record at Knoxville is 77 for today and we are generally 3-5 degrees colder than Knoxville. So today is very close to record territory imby." Nov 12 "the Atlantic -NAO will be doing battle with the -EPO in pacific so the flow will buckle such that zonal or southwest winds will encompass most of the East , especially the Southeast until the flow can change, which it will probably do just after Thanksgiving or near there. If we got intoa a +pna pattern, while the block is still there , say in early december, then the southeast or eastern states will have its first shot at a Winter storm of some type. " Nov 14 "The big transition to that would be Thanksgiving Day, with a strong southwest flow, one or more overrunning events around this strong Arctic Boundary. With low level cold across the Tenn/Ohio Valley, I'd expect the first Winter event to our west and northwest. Heres my very, very preliminary guess." Nov 15 "Well....if that's coming off record warmth, if we can't get snow, maybe some late season severe activity will suffice." Nov 15 "Does this mean it will never get cold?" Nov 15 "Watching the models regularly now in regards to the post Thanksgiving period. Noticing with consistency 2 things that as always are subject to change." (Nov 15) "Also, I didn't say the block wasn't going to happen, I think it is. However, I don't think its going to be as dramatic as this model run shows. Remember, this is still WAY out there in la-la land. " (Nov 16) "looking like after tgiving to early dec could be cold....i just hope that isnt the only cold all winter" (Nov 17) After reading through the thread, it was not till mid- November when the notion of colder air/ wintry precipitation was being widely spoken about. So we are talking about it earlier than last year. Obviously the dynamics for this winter are different so, I guess one has to take last years events with a grain of salt when relating to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 For your backyard maybe. Not everyone lives in your backyard though. 1999-2000 was a notoriously warm year for a lot of the east. You probably got in on the same wintry period we did from mid to late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 There is sure a great amount of pessimism going around on this board. Here are some quotes from last year on this board: "There is little doubt................ I enjoyed this Thanks for the trip in the way back machine. The song remains the same :)T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 1999-2000 was a notoriously warm year for a lot of the east. You probably got in on the same wintry period we did from mid to late January. It may have been warm, but wintry precipitation was observed across portions of the South east. January 17-18, 2000: January 22-23, 2000 (precip totals): January 24-25, 2000 (precip totals): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 That January storm was the greatest snow I have ever seen in Greensboro in my life. I still remember the thunder snow and 2 inch snow flakes. And lol less then 6 hours earlier only was expecting a inch and couldn't open my door the next morning! Sorry to reminisce : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 MONSTER storm getting ready to hit Alaska, called "epic" http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/11/09/alaska-prepares-for-storm-epic-magnitude/#ixzz1dByPWyf6?test=latestnews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 MONSTER storm getting ready to hit Alaska, called "epic" http://www.foxnews.c...test=latestnews Yeah, there's a couple of posts in the banter thread on this. Here's what I found to be interesting in a related article on yahoo... Posing an additional threat is the lack of sea ice off northwestern Alaska, forecasters said. The last time a storm of a similar magnitude was sent in the same northward direction was 1974, but the sea surface was much more frozen then, Brown said. "History tells that the sea ice helps subdue the storm surge," Brown said. "With no sea ice there, we could see the full brunt of that 6- to 9-foot storm surge." Arctic sea ice this year reached the second-lowest coverage since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. "Forty years ago, a big storm like this would come through and the sea ice would act as sort of a buffer," said Mark Serreze, director of the Snow and Ice Data Center. "The Bering Sea has and always will have these strong storms. What is different now is their potential destructiveness as you lose the sea ice cover," he added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Both major models have an east based -NAO developing and as we get deeper into November the cold air is going to build rapidly and a piece of the Arctic Vortex will slide into Canada (maybe). Yeah, the Euro Op run overnight is sending a series of cutoff lows toward the western Europe coastline....which is evidence that the mean flow (at least on this run) is setting up farther north in -NAO fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Did you know Chicago (O'Hare or Midway) has not had a freezing reading yet this season? I hit 33 and had another frost this morning. Honestly I've lost count now it's happened so frequently. This makes atleat the 7th or 8th time this year already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Well I see that our chances of rain disappeared overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 34 here this morning with ice on the cars and another light frost on the pumpkin. Love these frosty Carolina mornings. Got up to 68 yesterday. Perfect Fall weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I've had one frost, but my lowest temp has been 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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