ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Meteorologist Huffman's examiner page: November 4th post: The weather pattern on a larger scale appears to be evolving towards one with a west-based –NAO by mid to late November. This is about the same time of year that this occurred last Winter and we are seeing similar trends in the models. Although this year will not feature as strong a La Nina as last year, we may see similarities in the weather pattern. You can read about that in my winter outlook in case you missed it. Today's: We are about to enter into a warm period for much of the eastern half of the US, except for a 2-3 day cold shot coming in later this week and into the early weekend...What they are also showing is a developing –AO and –NAO as we see a Greenland Block set up during the 6-10 day period...it is interesting to look back on how the pattern developed last year. If you recall 2010-11 is one of the analogs to my winter forecast for this year. The 2nd half of November as you can see from the image in the slideshow also featured a very strong –NAO (west-based) and a strong trough in the West (-PNA) leading to a weak ridge over the Southeast... Read full post here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 People are cancelling winter already and it's not even December yet. If it was late January and we didn't have a good snow yet, then I would be worried. But some folks sound like Eeyore with all the doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 People are cancelling winter already and it's not even December yet. If it was late January and we didn't have a good snow yet, then I would be worried. But some folks sound like Eeyore with all the doom and gloom. I don't think I have heard anyone cancel winter yet but there is a whole camp who is not on board with a repeat of the epic winters of the past few years. Those people including myself could easily be right. I don't think it's fair to "put down" those people because you don't agree with them. I'm only 30 years old but in my lifetime I have seen my share of little to no snow winters in northern Atlanta. It happens frequently and not something my mind can let go of quite yet. Personally I would LOVE some more good winters like the last 2-3, I think Wildre would love some good winters too. I don't want folks thinking I'm some kinda of debbie downer, I'm not a met and not even that great at forecasting but my opinion as a resident of the southeast my entire life is the last few winters are not sustainable and we are going to hit a bump in the road sooner than later. When you add up all the factors coming into play this year it equals a greater chance of a warmer winter imho. We are all hoping for that -NAO but it may not be strong enough to keep La Nina conditions away. I really hope I'm wrong and have just been poisioned with so may fail winters around here that I'm just biased into thinking warm because all of my life has been dominated by more winters that are snowless than good winters. I respect anyone that takes the time to put their thoughts down about winter and all of them should be considered, good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I don't think I have heard anyone cancel winter yet but there is a whole camp who is not on board with a repeat of the epic winters of the past few years. Those people including myself could easily be right. I don't think it's fair to "put down" those people because you don't agree with them. I'm only 30 years old but in my lifetime I have seen my share of little to no snow winters in northern Atlanta. It happens frequently and not something my mind can let go of quite yet. Personally I would LOVE some more good winters like the last 2-3, I think Wildre would love some good winters too. I don't want folks thinking I'm some kinda of debbie downer, I'm not a met and not even that great at forecasting but my opinion as a resident of the southeast my entire life is the last few winters are not sustainable and we are going to hit a bump in the road sooner than later. When you add up all the factors coming into play this year it equals a greater chance of a warmer winter imho. We are all hoping for that -NAO but it may not be strong enough to keep La Nina conditions away. I really hope I'm wrong and have just been poisioned with so may fail winters around here that I'm just biased into thinking warm because all of my life has been dominated by more winters that are snowless than good winters. I respect anyone that takes the time to put their thoughts down about winter and all of them should be considered, good and bad. I tend to pick climatology also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 at this point i just have to throw my hands up in the air and give up. three back to back great se winters? probably not. then again i said that this time last year about 2 back to back ones. there are so many variables to forecast long range its difficult to really get a good grasp on things i will hold off judgment until early december to see how nov turns out, how the pattern seems to shaping up, etc. my biggest hangup right now is the fact that the last two winters have seen more snow here than the previous 6 or 7 combined. and living in the se that is just hard to beat and got 3 for 3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I don't think I have heard anyone cancel winter yet but there is a whole camp who is not on board with a repeat of the epic winters of the past few years. Those people including myself could easily be right. I don't think it's fair to "put down" those people because you don't agree with them. I'm only 30 years old but in my lifetime I have seen my share of little to no snow winters in northern Atlanta. It happens frequently and not something my mind can let go of quite yet. Personally I would LOVE some more good winters like the last 2-3, I think Wildre would love some good winters too. I don't want folks thinking I'm some kinda of debbie downer, I'm not a met and not even that great at forecasting but my opinion as a resident of the southeast my entire life is the last few winters are not sustainable and we are going to hit a bump in the road sooner than later. When you add up all the factors coming into play this year it equals a greater chance of a warmer winter imho. We are all hoping for that -NAO but it may not be strong enough to keep La Nina conditions away. I really hope I'm wrong and have just been poisioned with so may fail winters around here that I'm just biased into thinking warm because all of my life has been dominated by more winters that are snowless than good winters. I respect anyone that takes the time to put their thoughts down about winter and all of them should be considered, good and bad. I know i am speaking mby language, but for KTRI the last couple of winters have been cold and snowy, but we have eluded the big one and been nickled and dimed to get to above average. I for one would be ok with a pattern of variability if it yielded the potential for a big snow. Being cold all the time with little snow kinda stinks. The 90's were horrible overall, but still yielded three snows over 24 inches each here in and around the tricities. (93, 96 & 98) I still want to know what it feels like to follow a BIG storm on the message boards that drills us. Maybe this will be the year for that. I think we will have several opportunities in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I know i am speaking mby language, but for KTRI the last couple of winters have been cold and snowy, but we have eluded the big one and been nickled and dimed to get to above average. I for one would be ok with a pattern of variability if it yielded the potential for a big snow. Being cold all the time with little snow kinda stinks. The 90's were horrible overall, but still yielded three snows over 24 inches each here in and around the tricities. (93, 96 & 98) I still want to know what it feels like to follow a BIG storm on the message boards that drills us. Maybe this will be the year for that. I think we will have several opportunities in the coming months. I honestly think as I said earlier today in another thread that this will be the season for TN and KY. I honestly think the storm track for the most part will be pushed north and west this season putting TN and KY into a favorable area once colder air settles on in this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 It appears that there might be some upslope snowfall this weekend across portions of the Appalachian Mountains according to the 12 UTC GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 A optimistic post for those that may think winter is going to be a mild one if the impending mid month block fails to alter the pattern in our favor. Winter '78-79 was a neutral enso one of which was dominated by a -PDO/ -NAO. So, similarites there. The kicker is, November thru December was mild in the SE BUT, the long awaited favored pattern kicked in the start of Jan. and continued until mid march. Not saying that will be the case this year but,just food for thought. Although, that turned out to be a great winter once it got going, I still would prefer an early start like last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I see a lot of people panicking in this thread lately Surely we couldn't keep getting strong damming and cold waves through November. Now what we have upcoming is perfectly normal. A warm spell, as the jet dips out west and puts the Southeast in the warm sector for a while. Take time to enjoy the warmer weather, because just like last season, when the pattern switches, we'll go right into the cold most likely. The Neg. NAO cycle is coming, and it takes up to 2 weeks before the Southeast feels its effects. Just like last year as well, we can do ok with winter storms in a neg PNA cycle/-PDO since blocking rules for the east. Without the blocking, obviously we'd go back in warm sector. But with -PDO and -PNA with blocking , then supressed flow is what gives us our shot at Wintry precip and colder air, with a broad continental trough enveloping the US. Actually looks like we've done pretty well with -PDO and neutral to negPNA of sorts, so long as there is blocking. Since many times a NINO gives a PNA pattern that can be cold but dry (northwest flow) , we're looking at one that's pretty damp so far. Well said BTW.....I checked the opening date and it seems Lookouts cliff doesn't open until Mid December for those practicing their jumping skills All hail the upcoming block ! To this I will have a drink Meteorologist Huffman's examiner page: November 4th post: Today's: We are about to enter into a warm period for much of the eastern half of the US, except for a 2-3 day cold shot coming in later this week and into the early weekend...What they are also showing is a developing –AO and –NAO as we see a Greenland Block set up during the 6-10 day period...it is interesting to look back on how the pattern developed last year. If you recall 2010-11 is one of the analogs to my winter forecast for this year. The 2nd half of November as you can see from the image in the slideshow also featured a very strong –NAO (west-based) and a strong trough in the West (-PNA) leading to a weak ridge over the Southeast... Read full post here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 A nice day today with 69 for the high. Not too warm and not too cool. Perfect day to do anything outside. With the weekend cool down coming up though, we may see more frost across areas for early Friday and Saturday then it's back to the warmth again. Other than that, the next few days are going to feel great. I actually don't mind having the warmth around before the expected pattern change since at that point, it will be long gone and I have some outdoor activities that I would still like to do (such as my usual bike rides). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I'm just ready to get back to tracking... to late nights waiting for the Euro... to early mornings and the hope or doom that 6z will bring and the eternal optimists that will say "wait til the 12z to be worried".... oh winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I'm just ready to get back to tracking... to late nights waiting for the Euro... to early mornings and the hope or doom that 6z will bring and the eternal optimists that will say "wait til the 12z to be worried".... oh winter... Definately. Some of the best nights last winter came in the week leading up to christmas when we all tracked what would become the christmas day storm. Everyone stayed up until 2am waiting for burgertime to give us play by play from the euro. It was ridiculous, something like 6 or 7 runs in a row that just crushed ga/sc/nc. Never have I seen so many people so giddy on the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 A nice day today with 69 for the high. Not too warm and not too cool. Perfect day to do anything outside. With the weekend cool down coming up though, we may see more frost across areas for early Friday and Saturday then it's back to the warmth again. Other than that, the next few days are going to feel great. I actually don't mind having the warmth around before the expected pattern change since at that point, it will be long gone and I have some outdoor activities that I would still like to do (such as my usual bike rides). Same here, great outdoor weather with temps in the upper 60s under mostly clear skies, too bad I spent most of the day shopping indoors with the wife as I still have debris to clear from Irene. Oh well, should have favorable conditions for at least the next 7-10 to get that done. We still have a fair bit of green grass here, and barring another freeze with the frontal passage late week, may have to mow 1 more time before I pack it away. Warm temps this time of year are also gangbusters on clover growth, may even see a few try to flower here in a couple weeks before the growth slows down heading into Dec. That is a good thing as the deer have been munching and I have room in the the freezer for one whe the opportunity presents itself again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Since I was talking about last years christmas storm I went through my saved radar shots on my laptop and uploaded them to imgur for a little something to hold us over. http://imgur.com/a/Bvp8P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 This is starting to feel like 2001. Unremarkable October and then as we got into November, it stopped doing anything. Just day after day of normal-above normal temps. The SE ridge set up shop and did not leave, save for a week or two at the end of December into the first week of January. I foresee a similar winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I see a lot of people panicking in this thread lately Surely we couldn't keep getting strong damming and cold waves through November. Now what we have upcoming is perfectly normal. A warm spell, as the jet dips out west and puts the Southeast in the warm sector for a while. Take time to enjoy the warmer weather, because just like last season, when the pattern switches, we'll go right into the cold most likely. The Neg. NAO cycle is coming, and it takes up to 2 weeks before the Southeast feels its effects. Just like last year as well, we can do ok with winter storms in a neg PNA cycle/-PDO since blocking rules for the east. Without the blocking, obviously we'd go back in warm sector. But with -PDO and -PNA with blocking , then supressed flow is what gives us our shot at Wintry precip and colder air, with a broad continental trough enveloping the US. Actually looks like we've done pretty well with -PDO and neutral to negPNA of sorts, so long as there is blocking. Since many times a NINO gives a PNA pattern that can be cold but dry (northwest flow) , we're looking at one that's pretty damp so far. The models show no blocking for two weeks, or they show blocking that works for the west coast, but gives us a ridge here. If it's going to take us another two weeks just to start backing out of the pattern, that puts is in the beginning of December before we get a pattern change, at best. Since this is supposed to be another front-loaded winter, that leaves even less time for an effective wintry pattern. Also, I can't remember a year where a warm and dry November was followed by a cold and stormy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Let's say that we end up with a -PNA and a -NAO like most of last winter...wasnt the -PNA the root cause of the shortwaves dying off when they made it here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Let's say that we end up with a -PNA and a -NAO like most of last winter...wasnt the -PNA the root cause of the shortwaves dying off when they made it here? Are you speaking of the non-phasing storms that had a possibility to do so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Here is my stats from last season, I kind of gave up after the last entry so that does not sum up my entire winter imby but it gives folks a good idea of when last winter "started" imby last year. We are quickly approaching some milestones in my neck of the woods already. The closer we get to early December the more nervous I get for this winter rivaling last winter. 2010-11 Meteorological Winter Stats 12/1/10-3/1/11: Total Snow for 2010-2011 - 7.0" - Yearly average 2" = 350% of normal 12/5/10 - first snow flurries 12/12/10-12/13/10 - Light dusting of snow 12/15/10-12/16/10 - Trace of snow - change over to ice 12/25/10-12/26/10 - about 2" of snow 1/9/11-1/10/11 - 4" of snow followed by 1/8"-1/4" of ice 1/11/11 - Trace of snow 1/12/11 - Trace of snow 2/9/11 - 2/10/11 - 1" accumulation Lowest Temperature recorded - 13 on the morning of 12/14/10 Well, even if it becomes a flip flop winter...ridge east/trough west, then ridge west/trough in the east. There'll be storms at the transitions, and chances for timing It's always about timing anyway, and I've learned to never expect to see anything until after Christmas. A hot Tday, Xmas, and New Years would freak me though, lol. I don't remember more than a few all hot winters, but I do remember a lot of very cold, dry ones, lol. I doubt you see 8 frozen events again, but one or two is always a possibility, even in pathetic winters. So....I figure you're predictions can be right in your backyard and points north, and I can be dancing around in the deep sleet down here, lol. I've been shafted depth wise by a lot of this winter fun you all have had anyway, so while it may seem the odds should be against you, they favor me After all, I would never have guessed my deepest snow would be down here, instead of when I was in Atl., and one of my top 4 best sleet storms, as well as a zrain almost as bad as 73 in Buckhead. Tony RationalizationPro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Don't know if anyone's noticed, but take a look at who's been hanging out off the East Coast: Subtropical Storm Sean Winds: 45mph Peak Gust: 55mph Movement: Stationary (but expected to move away from land) Current Pressure: 1002mb Wasn't even aware he was out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 If I'm not mistaken, Sean is the same Low pressure system that cut through the Carolinas late last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 This is starting to feel like 2001. Unremarkable October and then as we got into November, it stopped doing anything. Just day after day of normal-above normal temps. The SE ridge set up shop and did not leave, save for a week or two at the end of December into the first week of January. I foresee a similar winter. THat was a GREAT winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 If I'm not mistaken, Sean is the same Low pressure system that cut through the Carolinas late last week. Indeed... I thought i would never see Sean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 The models show no blocking for two weeks, or they show blocking that works for the west coast, but gives us a ridge here. If it's going to take us another two weeks just to start backing out of the pattern, that puts is in the beginning of December before we get a pattern change, at best. Since this is supposed to be another front-loaded winter, that leaves even less time for an effective wintry pattern. Also, I can't remember a year where a warm and dry November was followed by a cold and stormy winter. I said the models are usually too quick with blocking, so if it takes all month, thats not out of the ordinary, and I won't be surprised. So be it. We do look pretty warm for a couple of weeks easily. As for front loaded Winter, I didn't predict that. I didn't do monthly breakdowns. As for a warm November and a pattern switch right afterward, well that happens all the time. We can easily go from warm Nov to cold Winters (or partial Winters) or go from cold Nov. to warm Winters. I'm not sure what the correlation is between seeing a + Nov and then seeing the ensuing Winter remain +, or having a -Nov and then followed by a totally - Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Wow, winters after an especially warm(top 10ish) November stack up to be pretty bleak snowfall wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Wow, winters after an especially warm(top 10ish) November stack up to be pretty bleak snowfall wise. Larry did some great research on this in the past and showed winters in general are pretty crappy after a warm november..especially here in ga where it's harder to get snow/ice than in nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 A real La Nina, for the win! weak/moderate La Nina signals usually do that to this part of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Had to check my numbers, so I deleted my previous post. So if you look at Nov 2005, that was a weak La Nina and the winter sucked for RDU. Now Nov. 2003 was also very warm, was a weak El Nino and winter was great. Nov 2001 was very warm but that winter we had one blockbuster storm and if I remember correctly, the rest of the winter was warm. Nov 1999 was warm and we had a great winter, all time great and that was a La Nina. With the 4 warm Novembers (1999, 2001, 2003, 2005) they had several days in November where it hit upper 70's and even some low 80's. The Euro is showing mid 70's end of next week so we will see. I don't see a need to cliff jump just yet. RDU Nov Avg. High - 62.7 Nov 2010 - 64 Nov 2009 - 63 Nov 2008 - 61 Nov 2007 - 63 Nov 2006 - 64 Nov 2005 - 66 (Little snow for RDU) Nov 2004 - 64 Nov 2003 - 68 (Great winter) Nov 2002 - 59 Nov 2001 - 69 (1 blockbuster storm and warm winter) Nov 2000 - 59 Nov 1999 - 66 (Great winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Had to check my numbers, so I deleted my previous post. So if you look at Nov 2005, that was a weak La Nina and the winter sucked for RDU. Now Nov. 2003 was also very warm, was a weak El Nino and winter was great. Nov 2001 was very warm but that winter we had one blockbuster storm and if I remember correctly, the rest of the winter was warm. Nov 1999 was warm and we had a great winter, all time great and that was a La Nina. With the 4 warm Novembers (1999, 2001, 2003, 2005) they had several days in November where it hit upper 70's and even some low 80's. The Euro is showing mid 70's end of next week so we will see. I don't see a need to cliff jump just yet. RDU Nov Avg. High - 62.7 Nov 2010 - 64 Nov 2009 - 63 Nov 2008 - 61 Nov 2007 - 63 Nov 2006 - 64 Nov 2005 - 66 (Little snow for RDU) Nov 2004 - 64 Nov 2003 - 68 (Great winter) Nov 2002 - 59 Nov 2001 - 69 (1 blockbuster storm and warm winter) Nov 2000 - 59 Nov 1999 - 66 (Great winter) 1999 was only a great winter because of two weeks of snow and cold. The rest of the winter was rather warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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