POWERSTROKE Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 speaking of leaves, the Dogwoods around here are the most deep colored purple ever. I keep sort of a mental record on the colors, overall its a great year here, well above average in terms of color, but the dogwoods have been a bizarre color of deep purple, which I've never seen. Anywhere else see them this color? Just about everyone is that way in the county. I have seen them here like that but never thought that much about it since we are always just trying to get rid of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I know what you mean, I just bought new blowers for my employees. They are falling here but still not heavy, usually week before Thanksgiving is the worse Yeah. They're not horrible here yet. It'll definitely get worse just tryin to keep up with it while I have time. First big wind we get behind a cold front will be when all ours come down. That's what usually happens anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Yeah. They're not horrible here yet. It'll definitely get worse just tryin to keep up with it while I have time. First big wind we get behind a cold front will be when all ours come down. That's what usually happens anyways. i know what you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 speaking of leaves, the Dogwoods around here are the most deep colored purple ever. I keep sort of a mental record on the colors, overall its a great year here, well above average in terms of color, but the dogwoods have been a bizarre color of deep purple, which I've never seen. Anywhere else see them this color? Just about everyone is that way in the county. Yeah, if has been the best here in years...and lasted a long time. I've still got some good trees here, 10 or 11 days after peak, and most of my leaves are still on the trees. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 speaking of leaves, the Dogwoods around here are the most deep colored purple ever. I keep sort of a mental record on the colors, overall its a great year here, well above average in terms of color, but the dogwoods have been a bizarre color of deep purple, which I've never seen. Anywhere else see them this color? Just about everyone is that way in the county. after I read this I went to look at the dogwood we have and you're right. The leaves are almost a plum color. I haven't really paid to much attention until now. I have a huge maple tree that gets my attention. It's starting to go from the bright yellow to the fiery orange stage. So beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Read more, post less. Follow your own advice guy. Or better just lighten up; this is a discussion board. We see something, we discuss it.... Never said this would turn into a snow event, just looked interesting. Sometimes, these are the types of patterns/systems that provide us SE folk snow. Models see it, models lose it, and then maybe see it right at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Follow your own advice guy. Or better just lighten up; this is a discussion board. We see something, we discuss it.... Never said this would turn into a snow event, just looked interesting. Sometimes, these are the types of patterns/systems that provide us SE folk snow. Models see it, models lose it, and then maybe see it right at the end. I agree. If everyone followed his advise and posted less this place would be even more empty during quite weather spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Read more, post less. Mr. Negativity already at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I have seen them here like that but never thought that much about it since we are always just trying to get rid of them I have several large maples that cover my yard in depth with leaves. I just wait for a dry day, put the mulching attachment on my mower deck and 1 hour later a clean yard. I used to rake and blow and burn for days. I was an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Check out that big ole heat miser in the gulf countering the block. Further east or west would be better. Would be optimal to have that thing retro back into the Southwest U.S. but, doesn't look like that will be the case. This is still in the rather distant range so, I'm sure there will be changes. Day 7 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=640x480&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h168&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Day 10 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=640x480&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h240&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Check out that big ole heat miser in the gulf countering the block. Further east or west would be better. Would be optimal to have that thing retro back into the Southwest U.S. but, doesn't look like that will be the case. This is still in the rather distant range so, I'm sure there will be changes. Day 7 http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest Day 10 http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest Get used to it. This is classic Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Get used to it. This is classic Nina. Unfortunately I agree. The longer this season drags on the more confident I'm getting my my original thoughts about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Does anyone see much hope in the pattern changing in 2 weeks so that the ski slopes can get open Thanksgiving week? To me, it looks like support for snow making will be hard to achieve for Thanksgiving this year. The slopes likely won't get open until later in December. Hoping for a pattern change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Get used to it. This is classic Nina. I would not be so quick to call a bust on this winter. There are other oscillations at work besides La Nina. For my location, temperatures are running less than 2F degrees from last year. Even if we were looking strictly at La Nina's effects on this winter, the effect would not necessarily be above average temperatures. If we average the models, we see a weak La Nina this winter: If we assume La Nina will be weak, then we would expect temperatures and precipitation to be similar to these last events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Looks like the once rainy/stormy Thursday frontal passage is turning into a non-event for central NC now. AFD alludes to it as well this afternoon.. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... RAINFALL COULD BE ISOLATED OR EVEN ABSENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT... WITH AN EYE TOWARDS REMOVAL IN LATER FORECASTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AND THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Get used to it. This is classic Nina. It's funny.......when you see the models paint a snowstorm in the long range, you are quick to say "it's garbage" but when it shows a torch....then you say it's a done deal. You are too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 It was weird seeing it get dark so early. Makes the evenings feel so much longer. Just another sign that winter is fast approaching! Oh, and remember the models come out an hour earlier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 It was weird seeing it get dark so early. Makes the evenings feel so much longer. Just another sign that winter is fast approaching! Oh, and remember the models come out an hour earlier now. Yep, I can tell this time change is going to screw with me for awhile. It is always hard getting used to sunsets at 5pm. Best part as you mentioned is the models are now out 1 hour earlier, so I will only have to stay up till 2am here in a couple months to catch the EC. Looking at the big 3 means for day 10, not much happening. Sig neg H5 anomalies centered near MT, with positive in the Pacific and Eastern Canada near the bay of Fundy. That sets the stage for a mean storm track to our west, and warmer than avg temps. Good thing is we are still in early Nov, and odds are temps will balance themselves out to near normal for the month as a whole. Granted we may be stuck in this for a couple weeks, but before Thanksgiving we should flip back to temps more typical of Nov. Sent from my iPhone 4S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Yep, I can tell this time change is going to screw with me for awhile. It is always hard getting used to sunsets at 5pm. Best part as you mentioned is the models are now out 1 hour earlier, so I will only have to stay up till 2am here in a couple months to catch the EC. Looking at the big 3 means for day 10, not much happening. Sig neg H5 anomalies centered near MT, with positive in the Pacific and Eastern Canada near the bay of Fundy. That sets the stage for a mean storm track to our west, and warmer than avg temps. Good thing is we are still in early Nov, and odds are temps will balance themselves out to near normal for the month as a whole. Granted we may be stuck in this for a couple weeks, but before Thanksgiving we should flip back to temps more typical of Nov. Sent from my iPhone 4S Yep. Just like last year, we had temperatures from the 60s to low 70s for highs during most of the month before the big changeover. I remember going down into the mid-upper 40s for highs during the last few days of the previous November with low 30s for lows. After we had the severe weather that broke out across the Southeast on the last day, I had to kick the heat on because it got awfully chilly afterwards with a low of 27 for the first day of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 OK, let's go ahead and get this strongly negative PNA out of our system....NOW. Could be an issue all winter though if PDO stays strongly negative as it has the past 3 months (combined with nina). Would be nice to see the negative PDO numbers relax over the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Nothing in the forecast looks bad to me for the next two weeks or so. 60s and low 70s are fine at this point. Honestly, how often does good cold come before Thanksgiving anyways. It seems to me that every year the first good cold front comes within a few days of Tday. There are exceptions but not many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 In a possible warm stretch in early November. Just give me a cold turkey day... Would be happy if we get some below normal temps on the second half of that week. Someone get on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Does anyone see much hope in the pattern changing in 2 weeks so that the ski slopes can get open Thanksgiving week? To me, it looks like support for snow making will be hard to achieve for Thanksgiving this year. The slopes likely won't get open until later in December. Hoping for a pattern change.... This may help: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 The last few days of the GFS and Euro basically say winter cancel for the next 10 days plus for the most part. There appears to be a small cooldown for a day or two but then right back to the ridgeiness. (I think I may have just invented a new word. ) At least the ridge does not look like an all out torch but it is rearing it's power for the near to mid term..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 The last few days of the GFS and Euro basically say winter cancel for the next 10 days plus for the most part. There appears to be a small cooldown for a day or two but then right back to the ridgeiness. (I think I may have just invented a new word. ) At least the ridge does not look like an all out torch but it is rearing it's power for the near to mid term..... Thankfully we are still 3.5 weeks away from meteorological winter so the models can say winter cancel all they want until after T-giving. That being said I wouldn't mind the models showing a pattern flip sooner than that. I'm still pretty confident we will have a good winter this year again, October and so far November has been very similar to last year. We had a cold snap in late October last year then went on a 3 week warm and boring spell into November then just after Thanksgiving the pattern flipped for an amazing December and January. Heck I remember standing outside a 3 am on Black Friday last year in shorts and a t-shirt giddy that it was about to finally get cold. Just have to be patient folks, way, WAY to early to be getting depressed. Daily high/low for CLT for the first and last couple of weeks last November: 11/8 - 71/26 11/9 - 75/44 11/10 - 75-37 11/11 - 73/36 11/12 - 71/35 11/13 - 69/27 11/14 - 70/27 11/21 - 70/36 11/22 - 70/36 11/23 - 73/46 11/24 - 68/39 11/25 - 68/39 11/26 - 66/48 11/27 - 55/33 11/28 - 55/33 11/29 - 51/30 just looking at the highs it looks similar to what is shaping up for this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 OK, let's go ahead and get this strongly negative PNA out of our system....NOW. Could be an issue all winter though if PDO stays strongly negative as it has the past 3 months (combined with nina). Would be nice to see the negative PDO numbers relax over the winter. I see a lot of people panicking in this thread lately Surely we couldn't keep getting strong damming and cold waves through November. Now what we have upcoming is perfectly normal. A warm spell, as the jet dips out west and puts the Southeast in the warm sector for a while. Take time to enjoy the warmer weather, because just like last season, when the pattern switches, we'll go right into the cold most likely. The Neg. NAO cycle is coming, and it takes up to 2 weeks before the Southeast feels its effects. Just like last year as well, we can do ok with winter storms in a neg PNA cycle/-PDO since blocking rules for the east. Without the blocking, obviously we'd go back in warm sector. But with -PDO and -PNA with blocking , then supressed flow is what gives us our shot at Wintry precip and colder air, with a broad continental trough enveloping the US. Actually looks like we've done pretty well with -PDO and neutral to negPNA of sorts, so long as there is blocking. Since many times a NINO gives a PNA pattern that can be cold but dry (northwest flow) , we're looking at one that's pretty damp so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Thankfully we are still 3.5 weeks away from meteorological winter so the models can say winter cancel all they want until after T-giving. That being said I wouldn't mind the models showing a pattern flip sooner than that. I'm still pretty confident we will have a good winter this year again, October and so far November has been very similar to last year. We had a cold snap in late October last year then went on a 3 week warm and boring spell into November then just after Thanksgiving the pattern flipped for an amazing December and January. Heck I remember standing outside a 3 am on Black Friday last year in shorts and a t-shirt giddy that it was about to finally get cold. Just have to be patient folks, way, WAY to early to be getting depressed. Here is my stats from last season, I kind of gave up after the last entry so that does not sum up my entire winter imby but it gives folks a good idea of when last winter "started" imby last year. We are quickly approaching some milestones in my neck of the woods already. The closer we get to early December the more nervous I get for this winter rivaling last winter. 2010-11 Meteorological Winter Stats 12/1/10-3/1/11: Total Snow for 2010-2011 - 7.0" - Yearly average 2" = 350% of normal 12/5/10 - first snow flurries 12/12/10-12/13/10 - Light dusting of snow 12/15/10-12/16/10 - Trace of snow - change over to ice 12/25/10-12/26/10 - about 2" of snow 1/9/11-1/10/11 - 4" of snow followed by 1/8"-1/4" of ice 1/11/11 - Trace of snow 1/12/11 - Trace of snow 2/9/11 - 2/10/11 - 1" accumulation Lowest Temperature recorded - 13 on the morning of 12/14/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 All hail the upcoming block ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 All hail the upcoming block ! Hear Hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Warm... STS Sean... Gotta love "Indian" Summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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