DaculaWeather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's about that time. What's going on here on the 9th??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 time for GFS to start the fantasy maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's about that time. What's going on here on the 9th??? Looks like some fantasy rain to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Gotta love the 12z GFS's massive powerful cold air intrusion provided by a 1053 high with snow reaching all the way down to TX at the 384 hr. What a tease.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 GFS has been good all year but wintry weather is always different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 GFS has been good all year but wintry weather is always different yep. We will see if the torch switches hands from ECMWF to GFS this Winter. I've followed both models year round , for longer than I care to remember, and I'd say this past year or so the GFS has give it a pretty bad beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 yep. We will see if the torch switches hands from ECMWF to GFS this Winter. I've followed both models year round , for longer than I care to remember, and I'd say this past year or so the GFS has give it a pretty bad beat down. I don't care which one is right as long as we get winter weather. I have a feeling we may get a surprise this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 yep. We will see if the torch switches hands from ECMWF to GFS this Winter. I've followed both models year round , for longer than I care to remember, and I'd say this past year or so the GFS has give it a pretty bad beat down. I agree. GFS has been doing a superb job nailing these pattern changes, events, and such. It just may become the new "King" at this rate. Hopefully it can keep this up...for the better of course. I'd like to see it nail a predicted winter storm far out for the Southeast during the upcoming season. We shall, once more, have our nightly show "As the Models Change" for model drama (points if someone gets the reference). After witnessing these events, ever since the rare Christmas Storm down to this recent snowstorm across the Northeast and northern TX, one has to wonder what lies ahead throughout this month. It will be quite exciting to see how the pattern behaves from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I don't care which one is right as long as we get winter weather. I have a feeling we may get a surprise this month I know people can't wait for the first real threat, but I hope the "big one" comes later in the season so the ground will be cold enough for no question of accumulation. It always hurts to get a really good storm and great rates, only to have no evidence of it the next day and little accumulation. Might not be a problem in the mountains, but it sure is in Raleigh. I love to see the streets covered...possibly because it's my inner weenie from childhood when school would cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I know people can't wait for the first real threat, but I hope the "big one" comes later in the season so the ground will be cold enough for no question of accumulation. It always hurts to get a really good storm and great rates, only to have no evidence of it the next day and little accumulation. Might not be a problem in the mountains, but it sure is in Raleigh. I love to see the streets covered...possibly because it's my inner weenie from childhood when school would cancel. I agree but I am in the business of snow and ice removal so when there is a threat we get paid!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 I agree. GFS has been doing a superb job nailing these pattern changes, events, and such. It just may become the new "King" at this rate. Hopefully it can keep this up...for the better of course. I'd like to see it nail a predicted winter storm far out for the Southeast during the upcoming season. We shall, once more, have our nightly show "As the Models Change" for model drama (points if someone gets the reference). After witnessing these events, ever since the rare Christmas Storm down to this recent snowstorm across the Northeast and northern TX, one has to wonder what lies ahead throughout this month. It will be quite exciting to see how the pattern behaves from here on out. As The Models Change, As The World Turns...it's all fantasy! I'm old! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Down to 27 this morning. Might hit 26 at this rate before the sun comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I know people can't wait for the first real threat, but I hope the "big one" comes later in the season so the ground will be cold enough for no question of accumulation. It always hurts to get a really good storm and great rates, only to have no evidence of it the next day and little accumulation. Might not be a problem in the mountains, but it sure is in Raleigh. I love to see the streets covered...possibly because it's my inner weenie from childhood when school would cancel. I'd take my chances for the "big one" anytime of the year, regardless of the ground temperatures. For me, more than 1/2 of the fun comes in tracking the storm and watching the snow fall. As for November, I think we see a wild swing or two as the atmosphere fights it out between warm and cold. It's still going to take something pretty abnormal to lay snow this month, even here in northeast TN, but after what just happened to our north and east I certainly wouldn't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I know people can't wait for the first real threat, but I hope the "big one" comes later in the season so the ground will be cold enough for no question of accumulation. It always hurts to get a really good storm and great rates, only to have no evidence of it the next day and little accumulation. Might not be a problem in the mountains, but it sure is in Raleigh. I love to see the streets covered...possibly because it's my inner weenie from childhood when school would cancel. What I hope for every year is a big storm somewhere around late december to mid january when the sun is at it's lowest. Solar radiation is the biggest killer of snow cover by a long shot, far worse than actual ground temps. Warm Ground temps do make a difference for sure, but there is a general misconception that good accumulation is impossible if it's warm. Time and time again that has proven to be wrong if you actually get good rates and cold enough air temps. But when you start getting into february and beyond, it doesn't matter how cold the ground and air temperature is, the snow is going to melt very fast. Being so far south we have a pretty small window of opportunity to have snow on the ground for an appreciable time. It's rare and that's why that one storm we had where there was snow on the ground for a week was so amazing. My dream storm is and will always be a good bit of ice changing to snow (which really never happens in georgia) or lots of snow ending with a glaze of ice like last year. The coating of freezing rain not only makes it even more beautiful, it protects the snow a lot from melting. I doubt I'll see a storm like that again for many years. Once again, I think we are due for a big icestorm though. It's been 6 years or so since we had a really big one i think. I thought last year it would happen but instead of ice we got snow. I just hope we get a bonefied classic wedge that me, brandon, jeremy, allan and others have enjoyed tracking and forecasting for over 10 years. The early 2000s brings back some fond memories for me tracking and forecasting those storms with them. Hard to believe though we have all been together that long though but it's pretty cool..we've had some good times. Back to actual weather, 34 this morning even with mostly cloudy skies. And has anyone found a simple, non javascript infected site for viewing models yet? I hate the new ncep page so much that it's hard to put into words. For all of you web geniuses out there, for the love of god, please make a site that can link directly to the images from ncep. I know it would be quite a task but you would stop thousands of people from wanting to bust a blood vessel. Please...please...pretty please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 What I hope for every year is a big storm somewhere around late december to mid january when the sun is at it's lowest. Solar radiation is the biggest killer of snow cover by a long shot, far worse than actual ground temps. Warm Ground temps do make a difference for sure, but there is a general misconception that good accumulation is impossible if it's warm. Time and time again that has proven to be wrong if you actually get good rates and cold enough air temps. But when you start getting into february and beyond, it doesn't matter how cold the ground and air temperature is, the snow is going to melt very fast. Being so far south we have a pretty small window of opportunity to have snow on the ground for an appreciable time. It's rare and that's why that one storm we had where there was snow on the ground for a week was so amazing. My dream storm is and will always be a good bit of ice changing to snow (which really never happens in georgia) or lots of snow ending with a glaze of ice like last year. The coating of freezing rain not only makes it even more beautiful, it protects the snow a lot from melting. I doubt I'll see a storm like that again for many years. Once again, I think we are due for a big icestorm though. It's been 6 years or so since we had a really big one i think. I thought last year it would happen but instead of ice we got snow. I just hope we get a bonefied classic wedge that me, brandon, jeremy, allan and others have enjoyed tracking and forecasting for over 10 years. The early 2000s brings back some fond memories for me tracking and forecasting those storms with them. Hard to believe though we have all been together that long though but it's pretty cool..we've had some good times. Back to actual weather, 34 this morning even with mostly cloudy skies. And has anyone found a simple, non javascript infected site for viewing models yet? I hate the new ncep page so much that it's hard to put into words. For all of you web geniuses out there, for the love of god, please make a site that can link directly to the images from ncep. I know it would be quite a task but you would stop thousands of people from wanting to bust a blood vessel. Please...please...pretty please. This site does have Java but perhaps it will work better for you and it is by far and away the best (IMO) GFS/NAM model site available in terms of what maps you have FREE access to. http://www.instantwe...s.com/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 I'm working on doing that Lookout. It's a slow process though. There are hundreds of links to create for each model. They will all be static images though, no loops, at least not on a non-javascript page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 This site does have Java but perhaps it will work better for you and it is by far and away the best (IMO) GFS/NAM model site available in terms of what maps you have FREE access to. http://www.instantwe...s.com/index.php Thanks for the link, it's bookmarked. I'm working on doing that Lookout. It's a slow process though. There are hundreds of links to create for each model. They will all be static images though, no loops, at least not on a non-javascript page. I you I had you in mind when I said that and I was hoping you would all along since you are so good at it. I knew it would be tough because of so many links and it's very highly appreciated you are going through so much trouble...and I know I'm not the only one. I hope it's simple, like the old ncep page. Ever since they changed it, I rarely look at the models because every site has to use damn javascript. So simplicity is what is preferred. I've never cared for loops so that's no problem for me, that's for sure. But again thanks so much for the effort and making everyone's lives just a little bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 I had pages that had links to those images and of course it all changed and the links no longer work. http://www.daculawea..._models_arw.php It will end up something like that page most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 What I hope for every year is a big storm somewhere around late december to mid january when the sun is at it's lowest. Solar radiation is the biggest killer of snow cover by a long shot, far worse than actual ground temps. Warm Ground temps do make a difference for sure, but there is a general misconception that good accumulation is impossible if it's warm. Time and time again that has proven to be wrong if you actually get good rates and cold enough air temps. But when you start getting into february and beyond, it doesn't matter how cold the ground and air temperature is, the snow is going to melt very fast. Being so far south we have a pretty small window of opportunity to have snow on the ground for an appreciable time. It's rare and that's why that one storm we had where there was snow on the ground for a week was so amazing. My dream storm is and will always be a good bit of ice changing to snow (which really never happens in georgia) or lots of snow ending with a glaze of ice like last year. The coating of freezing rain not only makes it even more beautiful, it protects the snow a lot from melting. I doubt I'll see a storm like that again for many years. Once again, I think we are due for a big icestorm though. It's been 6 years or so since we had a really big one i think. I thought last year it would happen but instead of ice we got snow. I just hope we get a bonefied classic wedge that me, brandon, jeremy, allan and others have enjoyed tracking and forecasting for over 10 years. The early 2000s brings back some fond memories for me tracking and forecasting those storms with them. Hard to believe though we have all been together that long though but it's pretty cool..we've had some good times. Back to actual weather, 34 this morning even with mostly cloudy skies. And has anyone found a simple, non javascript infected site for viewing models yet? I hate the new ncep page so much that it's hard to put into words. For all of you web geniuses out there, for the love of god, please make a site that can link directly to the images from ncep. I know it would be quite a task but you would stop thousands of people from wanting to bust a blood vessel. Please...please...pretty please. I could not have said it better myself. Daculawx and myself are in that area that is always or at least many times was ??? Nothing like driving up 316 seeing nothing in the trees and getting to about the Gwinnett Airport and all of a sudden there it is in the trees and by the time I get home its clear, the wedge is in. Guess it's all in the cycles. We can't complain though. Last 3 winters have been pretty freaking cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I know people can't wait for the first real threat, but I hope the "big one" comes later in the season so the ground will be cold enough for no question of accumulation. It always hurts to get a really good storm and great rates, only to have no evidence of it the next day and little accumulation. Might not be a problem in the mountains, but it sure is in Raleigh. I love to see the streets covered...possibly because it's my inner weenie from childhood when school would cancel. It is one of the reasons I like sleet so much! Down here even if the ground is warm, the sleet takes far longer to melt than that wussie snow....and causes better disruption. I've seen a good hail last longer in the dead of summer, than some snows in winter, lol. These March snows we've gotten over the last few years were nice, but they were melting as they hit the ground. Four inches could have been 8 if it hadn't been March, and by evening it was all gone. 4 inches of sleet in March would have stirred things up good T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I hope it's simple, like the old ncep page. Ever since they changed it, I rarely look at the models because every site has to use damn javascript. So simplicity is what is preferred. I've never cared for loops so that's no problem for me, that's for sure. But again thanks so much for the effort and making everyone's lives just a little bit better. I'm pretty sure Allan Huffman's site has no javascript involved. I don't get why some people detest Java, but if you want non-Java stuff, his site should work for you. Oh, and being relatively new around here (1+ year), Lookout, would you mind posting your location in your profile? I gather that you live in GA, and many people know where, but it's hard sometimes to understand posts without the location in mind. Actually, this is a plea for everyone to add some kind of identifier to their profile so that when you make comments, we can know to where you are referring. Just a thought. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I'm pretty sure Allan Huffman's site has no javascript involved. I don't get why some people detest Java, but if you want non-Java stuff, his site should work for you. Oh, and being relatively new around here (1+ year), Lookout, would you mind posting your location in your profile? I gather that you live in GA, and many people know where, but it's hard sometimes to understand posts without the location in mind. Actually, this is a plea for everyone to add some kind of identifier to their profile so that when you make comments, we can know to where you are referring. Just a thought. Thanks! Allan uses Java for his loops. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/anis/ I've recently had an issue with it, seems the animation goes black after seeing it click through once. So that's something I need to fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 Lookout doesn't want Java, Javascript, or anything that sounds like it has coffee in it, plain images, nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Allan uses Java for his loops. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/anis/ I've recently had an issue with it, seems the animation goes black after seeing it click through once. So that's something I need to fix. True, but Lookout said he didn't care about loops at all. He just wanted the plain images which are also accessible on the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 This site does have Java but perhaps it will work better for you and it is by far and away the best (IMO) GFS/NAM model site available in terms of what maps you have FREE access to. http://www.instantwe...s.com/index.php Wow awesome link. Def. bookmarking that one. Looks almost exactly like SV though, I can't remember if SV does free maps or not. Looks like the 12z pulled back a little bit on the epic cold 300+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Wow awesome link. Def. bookmarking that one. Looks almost exactly like SV though, I can't remember if SV does free maps or not. Looks like the 12z pulled back a little bit on the epic cold 300+ hours out. Yea, I really like their model page. One thing I've noticed is the GFS has been consistently trying to break down the current pattern in the extended range (second half of November). It has been building in heights over/near Greenland in the 300+ hour range, and breaking down the SE Ridge as we enter a more zonal flow across the US. There was a discussion yesterday about the longer range of the GFS, and it's ability to suggest a change of pattern in the extended, sometimes it get's it right and sometimes not. But it has been hinting at a possible change later in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Yea, I really like their model page. One thing I've noticed is the GFS has been consistently trying to break down the current pattern in the extended range (second half of November). It has been building in heights over/near Greenland in the 300+ hour range, and breaking down the SE Ridge as we enter a more zonal flow across the US. There was a discussion yesterday about the longer range of the GFS, and it's ability to suggest a change of pattern in the extended, sometimes it get's it right and sometimes not. But it has been hinting at a possible change later in November. Let's just hope we get a block and that block becomes a 3 month lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I will caution that the persistent presence of a Baffin Island Block could lead to another, longer lasting, blast of colder values at mid-month. Both the European and American model suites are hinting at a rather vast blocking signature covering northern Canada and Greenland, set against a ridge complex across the northern Pacific Ocean. That couplet of positive 500MB height anomalies would doom most of the lower 48 states to a long period of cold with storm threats along the southern and eastern coastlines of the U.S. Continue reading on Examiner.com Houston TX And Vicinity Weather Forecast, Halloween, Monday, October 31, 2011 - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/houston-tx-and-vicinity-weather-forecast-halloween-monday-october-31-2011#ixzz1cPAI86Ra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I will caution that the persistent presence of a Baffin Island Block could lead to another, longer lasting, blast of colder values at mid-month. Both the European and American model suites are hinting at a rather vast blocking signature covering northern Canada and Greenland, set against a ridge complex across the northern Pacific Ocean. That couplet of positive 500MB height anomalies would doom most of the lower 48 states to a long period of cold with storm threats along the southern and eastern coastlines of the U.S. Continue reading on Examiner.com Houston TX And Vicinity Weather Forecast, Halloween, Monday, October 31, 2011 - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner....1#ixzz1cPAI86Ra I didn't notice the Euro hinting at this at all. Only a couple or runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I will caution that the persistent presence of a Baffin Island Block could lead to another, longer lasting, blast of colder values at mid-month. Both the European and American model suites are hinting at a rather vast blocking signature covering northern Canada and Greenland, set against a ridge complex across the northern Pacific Ocean. That couplet of positive 500MB height anomalies would doom most of the lower 48 states to a long period of cold with storm threats along the southern and eastern coastlines of the U.S. Continue reading on Examiner.com Houston TX And Vicinity Weather Forecast, Halloween, Monday, October 31, 2011 - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner....1#ixzz1cPAI86Ra I haven't seen his maps yet, But looks like Larry is describing a pretty severe Winter in the South and East this season. Judging by the words he's using on FB, sounds pretty cold and stormy with blocking, which could begin soon. One thing I mentioned a couple days ago is how quickly Canada should go snowcovered, starting with next weekends storm, there will be 2 more very good ones right after that, in various parts of the country there and into MN/Dakotas, so the cold air coming down should not modifiy as quickly. But first, the Southeast will go toward the warm side through the first third of November before the possible (big) blocking occurs. Based on just how many wild amplifications we've had, and how the models look (and keep flipping on the longwave positions) , chances are its going to get extremely active. Atleast it won't be boring, like we had across much of the country, esp. the South from about 2005 until 2008, nearly 4 years of pretty bland weather year round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.