The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

[CoastalWx]

I think we both like it, but it's not a lock. The euro ensembles keep most of the qpf further north, but do sling some moisture down to sne. I'm not sure if I want this, because there is going to be a pretty good area of low pressure coming out of the Plains, and this retro low might squash it. That said, something to watch for next week. It looks better now, than 48hrs ago..but not a lock.

Yep.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yep.

It's the GFS at day 5 lol

[CoastalWx]

It's the GFS at day 5 lol

What I mean is that we could have a much better chance at more significant snow, if that storm got a out the way.

[Damage In Tolland]

What I mean is that we could have a much better chance at more significant snow, if that storm got a out the way.

At this point let's just get a couple inches and worry about anything else later

[CoastalWx]

At this point let's just get a couple inches and worry about anything else later

Well we could hope for a middle finger of RH to come down the coast and give an inch or two, or a nice redeveloping miller b. I'd rather the latter.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well we could hope for a middle finger of RH to come down the coast and give an inch or two, or a nice redeveloping miller b. I'd rather the latter.

We all would but seeing as this pattern hasn't sllowed for any miller'b's best to rest our hopes on 2-4 with the retro storm than a miller b that the Euro brought substantially farther north than it had

[CoastalWx]

We all would but seeing as this pattern hasn't sllowed for any miller'b's best to rest our hopes on 2-4 with the retro storm than a miller b that the Euro brought substantially farther north than it had

Ideally it would be great to squeeze an inch or two out and have the low move out of the way. It's probably going to be one or the other, but another option is cold and dry. It's just too early to know. At least the gfs tries to sneak some more qpf along the coast, as a sharp trough swings down.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yep.

Yeah, I mentioned that too in that commiseration post

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, I mentioned that too in that commiseration post

LOL, well lets hope for something. It does look like we'll have some chances, so fingers crossed. I haven't even seen a dusting yet.

[OKpowdah]

A poem:

I want to be in Iowa, where a blizzard rages.

I want to be in Wisconsin, where snow clogs the gauges.

I want to be in North Dakota, where the wind chills are severe.

I want to be where winter is: everywhere but here.

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL, well lets hope for something. It does look like we'll have some chances, so fingers crossed. I haven't even seen a dusting yet.

That sucks..most of the grass and even shaded areas on pavement still covered here

[CoastalWx]

That sucks..most of the grass and even shaded areas on pavement still covered here

The GFS seems to have a pretty large disconnect with the shortwave in the Midwest at hr 120. Surface low forms hundreds of miles further south then one would think. It probably means that enough baroclinic processes due to temps gradients ,form the low....but just kind of looks funny,.

[cpickett79]

LOL, well lets hope for something. It does look like we'll have some chances, so fingers crossed. I haven't even seen a dusting yet.

seriously now.....CT blizz we aren't getting 2 inches from retro anything ......and yes we could....but we wont. it's like you have some sort of stockholm syndrome fascination with this **** weather pattern that has held us hostage.

and yes the plains low will get squashed by retrograding storm GFS on day 5 ...IT isn't exactly thaaat close to us.....it doesn't even have moderate precip getting up to Atlantic city for christ sake. so even with out the retro squashing it.....the ULL prob. would. if i was in philly i would be more interested.

lets call a spade a spade. this pattern sucks....yes there are "possibilities" and the more we look at them and think the more they seem = to the "possibilities" R drunk friend at the bar murmurs he could pick up some '10' he's been drooling over since his first heinken.

now Don S repied to me in a general thread that he sees a couple 3-4 " events before the AO tank breaks down ....so now we are on the look out for a "storm" that drops roughly the same accumulation that Erie PA will get in about 90 minutes time early next week under a LES band.....and then we torch. give me the rope give me the chair

[dendrite]

Man....the 12z NAM drops about 0.50" QPF up here before the 0C 850 line pushes north. Unfortunately the 2nd half of that precip is with an eroded BL. If we could hold the cold a few hours longer it could be a surprise.

[skierinvermont]

The GFS seems to have a pretty large disconnect with the shortwave in the Midwest at hr 120. Surface low forms hundreds of miles further south then one would think. It probably means that enough baroclinic processes due to temps gradients ,form the low....but just kind of looks funny,.

Isn't there also another s/w farther south though? The one that streaks across KS, MO, KY and WV? You can barely see it on the GFS but it's always hard to see weak s/ws on the GFS I think b/c of the low resolution. I think the surface low is partially associated with that s/w and that's why it forms so far south originally.

Oh also.. congrats on reaching 2,000

[cpickett79]

Man....the 12z NAM drops about 0.50" QPF up here before the 0C 850 line pushes north. Unfortunately the 2nd half of that precip is with an eroded BL. If we could hold the cold a few hours longer it could be a surprise.

posted about this earlier.....perhaps someone in NH could develop some low level drainage flow tommorrow am that hangs around.

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL, well lets hope for something. It does look like we'll have some chances, so fingers crossed. I haven't even seen a dusting yet.

Really - not last night either then.

I had about 20 minute burst of flurries that left a little here in Ayer overnight.

Overall, this 12z GFS run is Ground Hog run: 2 more weeks of the same

[NorEastermass128]

seriously now.....CT blizz we aren't getting 2 inches from retro anything ......and yes we could....but we wont. it's like you have some sort of stockholm syndrome fascination with this **** weather pattern that has held us hostage.

and yes the plains low will get squashed by retrograding storm GFS on day 5 ...IT isn't exactly thaaat close to us.....it doesn't even have moderate precip getting up to Atlantic city for christ sake. so even with out the retro squashing it.....the ULL prob. would. if i was in philly i would be more interested.

lets call a spade a spade. this pattern sucks....yes there are "possibilities" and the more we look at them and think the more they seem = to the "possibilities" R drunk friend at the bar murmurs he could pick up some '10' he's been drooling over since his first heinken.

now Don S repied to me in a general thread that he sees a couple 3-4 " events before the AO tank breaks down ....so now we are on the look out for a "storm" that drops roughly the same accumulation that Erie PA will get in about 90 minutes time early next week under a LES band.....and then we torch. give me the rope give me the chair

Tell us how you really feel.

[Damage In Tolland]

seriously now.....CT blizz we aren't getting 2 inches from retro anything ......and yes we could....but we wont. it's like you have some sort of stockholm syndrome fascination with this **** weather pattern that has held us hostage.

and yes the plains low will get squashed by retrograding storm GFS on day 5 ...IT isn't exactly thaaat close to us.....it doesn't even have moderate precip getting up to Atlantic city for christ sake. so even with out the retro squashing it.....the ULL prob. would. if i was in philly i would be more interested.

lets call a spade a spade. this pattern sucks....yes there are "possibilities" and the more we look at them and think the more they seem = to the "possibilities" R drunk friend at the bar murmurs he could pick up some '10' he's been drooling over since his first heinken.

now Don S repied to me in a general thread that he sees a couple 3-4 " events before the AO tank breaks down ....so now we are on the look out for a "storm" that drops roughly the same accumulation that Erie PA will get in about 90 minutes time early next week under a LES band.....and then we torch. give me the rope give me the chair

Yes we are..It's likely with the Euo having it for so many runs

[CoastalWx]

Isn't there also another s/w farther south though? The one that streaks across KS, MO, KY and WV? You can barely see it on the GFS but it's always hard to see weak s/ws on the GFS I think b/c of the low resolution. I think the surface low is partially associated with that s/w and that's why it forms so far south originally.

Oh also.. congrats on reaching 2,000

Yeah that is just some shortwave energy inducing cyclogenesis. The thing is, the gfs has done this before, meaning it tries to develop lows with the weak lead shortwave. I'm always suspicious of that. It's also way faster compared to the euro, so it could be out to lunch with timing. The euro focuses the low along the southern shortwave at hr 156.

[CoastalWx]

Really - not last night either then.

I had about 20 minute burst of flurries that left a little here in Ayer overnight.

Overall, this 12z GFS run is Ground Hog run: 2 more weeks of the same

I think it snowed without me knowing, but it either sublimated or wasn't enough to dust the ground.

[dendrite]

posted about this earlier.....perhaps someone in NH could develop some low level drainage flow tommorrow am that hangs around.

Yeah...if we can keep those BL easterlies from overly torching us we may get a little burst up here. Gene will have a better shot at 1000ft+. The best pressure falls will be WSW of here though so the isallobaric component will be easterly as well. We're going to need those UVVs to do some dirty work in that 24-30hr range and hope to remain close to isothermal as long as possible. I don't think we manage anything more than 1-2" before H9 starts going to hell, but we'll see.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah that is just some shortwave energy inducing cyclogenesis. The thing is, the gfs has done this before, meaning it tries to develop lows with the weak lead shortwave. I'm always suspicious of that. It's also way faster compared to the euro, so it could be out to lunch with timing. The euro focuses the low along the southern shortwave at hr 156.

yeah you would think (on the GFS) that it would be the second of the 3 pieces of energy that would support a decent low. that strung out area of vorticity is rather meager compared to the second compact piece coming along further N.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah...if we can keep those BL easterlies from overly torching us we may get a little burst up here. Gene will have a better shot at 1000ft+. The best pressure falls will be WSW of here though so the isallobaric component will be easterly as well. We're going to need those UVVs to do some dirty work in that 24-30hr range and hope to remain close to isothermal as long as possible. I don't think we manage anything more than 1-2" before H9 starts going to hell, but we'll see.

You can see on the critical thicknesses that 850-700 starts to tilt more nw-se and slows the ne progression, meaning there is some resistance from the cold. I wouldn't be shocked for a decent burst of sn, then probably a nice glaze for a while perhaps, up your way.

[OKpowdah]

Yeah...if we can keep those BL easterlies from overly torching us we may get a little burst up here. Gene will have a better shot at 1000ft+. The best pressure falls will be WSW of here though so the isallobaric component will be easterly as well. We're going to need those UVVs to do some dirty work in that 24-30hr range and hope to remain close to isothermal as long as possible. I don't think we manage anything more than 1-2" before H9 starts going to hell, but we'll see.

It's going to be hard to battle the effects of 50kt SSE winds at H9.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

EURO seems to be the model between day 2-6. Correctly forecasted the Monday storm then the other models at day 5. Maybe it will be correct with the miller B storm next weekend.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Gladly take a 2-4" event in the next week or so. I'm a little tired of folks giving virtual high fives over a dusting.

[Colonel Badger]

All I want is a covering for Christmas. I can wait until Jan for more.

[Tropopause_Fold]

nice ENE special on the end of the ggem. lock it?

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

nice ENE special on the end of the ggem. lock it?

We could only hope Phil.