The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

12z nam looks worse for front end snow as 850 0c line runs further north (at 12z sun) as precip is getting/ already overspreading area

only intersting tidbit is nam drops 0c 850 line down over extreme N. essex county much of S NH and SW maine at 18z sunday. not sure what BL temps are / winds at that time frame but should any drainage flow set up that could lead to some added snow into the early afternoon.

seems like their is still some potential tomm. morn so attention should still be paid esp. in S/ C NH SW maine.

All we should be focusing on now is backlash snow over central and western areas on M onday. Front end is sleet to rain

[cpickett79]

yes most likely ....esp the Cape is out of the realm of possibility

but N of the pike has a shot at some front end snow. not a big shot and not a big accum...but it's there. and since almost No one has seen 1/2 inch fall in that area.....i think it is worthwhile to mention since 12 hours ago nam had 0c line straddling mass pike at 12z sun. and although it has trended warmer in that time frame.....the 12z nam at 18z sun drops 0c line back down a tad along ma/nh border.....so this is not etched in stone... and neither is the exact timing of that turd system crawling up the SE coast as i type. so it bears watching N of pike and esp along the snh border for those that haven't seen an INCH in TEN months.

and i wil be watching it like a hawk....no matter how many dead horse icons maybe attatched to my quoted posts lol

[Tropopause_Fold]

yes most likely ....esp 95% of the posters in the SNE threads are out of the realm of possibility

but N of the pike has a shot at some front end snow. not a big shot and not a big accum...but it's there. and since almost No one has seen 1/2 inch fall in that area.....i think it is worthwhile to mention since 12 hours ago nam had 0c line straddling mass pike at 12z sun. and although it has trended warmer in that time frame.....the 12z nam at 18z sun drops 0c line back down a tad along ma/nh border.....so this is not etched in stone... and neither is the exact timing of that turd system crawling up the SE coast as i type. so it bears watching N of pike and esp along the snh border for those that haven't seen an INCH in TEN months.

and i wil be watching it like a hawk....no matter how many dead horse icons maybe attatched to my quoted posts lol

agree

[Logan11]

NAM says get out the ARK in CT and also the so called "God's Country"

agree

[Mr Torchey]

NAM says get out the ARK in CT and also the so called "God's Country"

Potential flooding concerns across the berk and greens with a decent snowpack, frozen ground and a couple inches of rain?

[ChrisM]

NAM says get out the ARK in CT and also the so called "God's Country"

If that were to happen, a good amount of the snow the local hills have made would be decimated by Tuesday..

[HoarfrostHubb]

SUNDAY NIGHT PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN IN ALL LOCATIONS. THIS SYSTEM

LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY EXCESSIVE

RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...STILL CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2

INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. DURING THIS TIME...THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO

THE WINDS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED TOTALS ON THE E SLOPES OF THE

BERKS...MONADNOCKS...WORCESTER HILLS...AND NW RI HILLS.

For once, I wish I would downslope...

[Tropopause_Fold]

Potential flooding concerns across the berk and greens with a decent snowpack, frozen ground and a couple inches of rain?

yeah i could see the need for brief flood advisories in some areas. good signal, though somewhat short-lived, for some pretty hefty rains.

[Mr Torchey]

yeah i could see the need for brief flood advisories in some areas. good signal, though somewhat short-lived, for some pretty hefty rains.

Big hit to the ski areas just before the holiday rush. Hopefully they can do well during the week with some upslope snows.

[moneypitmike]

NAM says get out the ARK in CT and also the so called "God's Country"

Sure does--where's CWEAT to severely reduce the NAM qpf?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Big hit to the ski areas just before the holiday rush. Hopefully they can do well during the week with some upslope snows.

well many have the capacity to make up snow quick. i don't see that as a huge deal. also, it's not like we torch to 50s and 60s for days on end. most of the resorts will only have short window of "mild" air.

[moneypitmike]

SUNDAY NIGHT PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN IN ALL LOCATIONS. THIS SYSTEM

LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY EXCESSIVE

RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...STILL CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2

INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. DURING THIS TIME...THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO

THE WINDS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED TOTALS ON THE E SLOPES OF THE

BERKS...MONADNOCKS...WORCESTER HILLS...AND NW RI HILLS.

For once, I wish I would downslope...

You know what though, if we're going to get a torriential rainstorm, I'd rather get it on mostly bare ground than one that's going bo dent a snowpack..

26.5/521

[weatherwiz]

Looks like there could could be a period of some strong winds, especially along the SE coast of MA late Sunday into Monday.

[Mr Torchey]

well many have the capacity to make up snow quick. i don't see that as a huge deal. also, it's not like we torch to 50s and 60s for days on end. most of the resorts will only have short window of "mild" air.

Yeppers, they can make it up quick but places like Okemo have been blowing ridiculous amounts of snow lately, (not favored in upslope snows) so a family mountain like that will surely take a few steps back especially since they have had very little natural dendritical deliciousness.

The big boys will be fine, but this will hurt the little guys for sure.

Looks like the lp out west is digging pretty good right now, lets try and shift everything east even 50 miles to help out ski country, you never know.

[Typhoon Tip]

In the spirit of commiseration:

I am very excited about the 384 hour GFS ( ) off the 06z "deterministic" run. Lots of structure and certitude in there.

With a 90-degree negative tilter under historic histrionic horror show -NAO blocking that is so extreme as to transcendedly portend something biblical and population correcting must be about to take place this year because it is otherwise physically impossible ... we can be sure that when it happens we will have no warning

Take your pick, things could not have been more absurdly and disproportionately probabilistic yet succeeding to take place to the point where it must be scary.

It is not just the weather enthusiasts worst nightmare entry into winter, with brutal coled-18 hour rain storm-brutal cold-18 hour rain storm cycling now going into the 2nd complete success story, it has to be rubbed in! How, at 384 hours, the geographical region of SNE as defined by NWS is being exactly outline in the greatest snow QPF at that la-la never going to happen so why bother expending the energy running the model out that far time range, could take place is worse than a face slap: it's an actually beheading.

And darkness is just in the air. This buddy of mine is a ding dong. He calls while I am on the way home and asks me to give him a hand with some ski-swap type charity sail deal thing ... anyway, so i'm thinking that since Bri' can't make it until 8:30 or so like he originally said, i had like 2 hours to kill. ...so sure, why not - what the hell.

All good deeds must be punishable!

We spend like an hour filling out these pricing tags and clipping them to all this used ski and skate recycled products/junk in his musty basement, muscle it all to the back of his pick-up, haul it down 495 to Westborough ...only to show up at the swap where this giant fish in this little pond says they won't accept it unless we use their numbering system and so forth for the tags. the things is ... my buddy knew this. Now, I'm a good friend and am "on his side", but Christ! At the same time thinking inside, 'Dude, your a ****ing idiot - what were you thinking they would say if you knew they did this last year and you were going to show up - what, this year and they'd just take your own tags? You are either arrogant or stupid'

It just pissed me off.... Turned out, we didn't get out of that place in Wesborough 'till 10pm. that's so indescribably inconsiderate. I do this, I subject myself to the whims of others out of trust, and because I'm I dunno too nice or whatever, but get "accidentally" taken advantage of. All I wanted last night was to come home and go over and have a relaxing beer and a reuben at BBC in Westford like we planned, check out the local talent - hell, meet a flunckin babe for a change.

who knows.

You know, I've known the dude for like 25 years but I'm thinking, if I have not heard from him in a like a month and the phone rings, it is more likely because he wants something from me, not just to hanging out, and i have to be worried if I'm going to wind up stuck in some **** that is expending time and energy I don't want to expend.

Dumb ass.

Ah well, I guess in the end it is karma in the bank and I spent 5 hours of Friday night doing charity work.

It just won't snow. In the end, ...after all the guidance and theoretical well-penned dialogue and conversation among well-intended, none-perfunctorily negative content posters, all that consternation and rational left in the dust, the remains is swept up and thrown in the remorseless been of never satisfying lust. It just won't snow - end of story. There is no reason, there is no song, there is no model run that will be proven unwrong, it just does not matter and it just does not even need to have a process in physics.

It just won't snow.

That really more than just seems the only rational and consistent aspect to take away from - literally - all these countless depictions and failed plausible events, and that is, at the end of it all, it just won't snow.

And, what makes it really shimmeringly brutal is that it is only true right here at home in our region of the country. There is more snow at latitudes SW of us at this point than here, and there will be certainly next week ....after this 12-18 hour impossible result takes place, and a weak Colorado type cyclone zips through the OV only to get ****ed out of existence by the newly erected west-based boner of a -NAO (but not before giving 2-4" to DCA next week). Just in time to NOT snow, OH WAIT. Right, it just won't snow.

You really cannot begin to describe the difficulty there is in mentally comparing a seasons like 1977-1978, or your 1995-1996 ...or those years of the late '50s and '60s - it seems like those years could not have happened, THEN.

In the spirit of ever springs eternal hope from the prison sell of Satan's deepest most hidden dungeon:

I still believe that "hint" of snow in the D5 00z Euro is a dying Norlun as it pivots down from ME. That is not a-typical when you have a post frontal environment with jet dynamics still running over head. You end up with a convergence axis in the llv. I will also say though that with 2 or 3 contours closed off at 500mb that way, a retrograding cyclonic expression is also equally plausible however ill-define in current depictions.

The system for the 19th is still trying to show up here. Interesting that this is the 4th cycle now where the ECM has shown height falling NE of Hawaii, perhaps signaling at long last an end to this bullet in the head -PNA during that same time. The NAO ridge persist.

[ski MRG]

well many have the capacity to make up snow quick. i don't see that as a huge deal. also, it's not like we torch to 50s and 60s for days on end. most of the resorts will only have short window of "mild" air.

Agree, this will only be a minor setback. Not what we'd want but really just a bump in the road.

[HoarfrostHubb]

well many have the capacity to make up snow quick. i don't see that as a huge deal. also, it's not like we torch to 50s and 60s for days on end. most of the resorts will only have short window of "mild" air.

I was talking to some of the folks who work at Wachusett, and they think no big deal.

The snow they have made in the past week is truly amazing.

On many of the trails they have made huge mounds that won't wash out as much as if they were spread out over the trail. Even so, too bad. At least it will freeze and leave a good solid bulletproof base that will last to April

[snowNH]

Anybody see the forecast yet for Chicago on Sunday for the patriots game?

Sunday: Snow and areas of blowing snow before noon, then snow likely and areas of blowing snow after noon. Temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. Very windy, with a north northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 35 and 40 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -8. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

That is going to be a very interesting game, probably one that favors the bears as the patriots are a pass based offense and the bears have a good defense. But with that wind, I expect Cutler to throw many picks

Oh and field goals FTL in that game..

[Tropopause_Fold]

I was talking to some of the folks who work at Wachusett, and they think no big deal.

The snow they have made in the past week is truly amazing.

On many of the trails they have made huge mounds that won't wash out as much as if they were spread out over the trail. Even so, too bad. At least it will freeze and leave a good solid bulletproof base that will last to April

yeah it won't be a horror show for most places. obviously not what they want but NBD really. they can withstand it. it's the warm-ups that are 4 to 6 days long and accompanied by a 2 inch rainfall that really f the mountains.

[HoarfrostHubb]

John, that was epic...

I hope you have tipped the karma balance for the good now, and this line is a keeper (it rhymes quite well):

"There is no reason, there is no song, there is no model run that will be proven unwrong"

[HoarfrostHubb]

Anybody see the forecast yet for Chicago on Sunday for the patriots game?

Sunday: Snow and areas of blowing snow before noon, then snow likely and areas of blowing snow after noon. Temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. Very windy, with a north northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 35 and 40 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -8. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

That is going to be a very interesting game, probably one that favors the bears as the patriots are a pass based offense and the bears have a good defense. But with that wind, I expect Cutler to throw many picks

Oh and field goals FTL in that game..

Remember the Pats-Bills game in Buffalo at the end of the 2008 season?

[cpickett79]

yeah it won't be a horror show for most places. obviously not what they want but NBD really. they can withstand it. it's the warm-ups that are 4 to 6 days long and accompanied by a 2 inch rainfall that really f the mountains.

wonder if they will be open sunday nite....damn wanted to give it a spin oh well

[snowNH]

Remember the Pats-Bills game in Buffalo at the end of the 2008 season?

Yea that was nuts... goal posts almost blowing down

[Damage In Tolland]

In the spirit of commiseration:

I am very excited about the 384 hour GFS ( ) off the 06z "deterministic" run. Lots of structure and certitude in there.

With a 90-degree negative tilter under historic histrionic horror show -NAO blocking that is so extreme as to transcendedly portend something biblical and population correcting must be about to take place this year because it is otherwise physically impossible ... we can be sure that when it happens we will have no warning

Take your pick, things could not have been more absurdly and disproportionately probabilistic yet succeeding to take place to the point where it must be scary.

It is not just the weather enthusiasts worst nightmare entry into winter, with brutal coled-18 hour rain storm-brutal cold-18 hour rain storm cycling now going into the 2nd complete success story, it has to be rubbed in! How, at 384 hours, the geographical region of SNE as defined by NWS is being exactly outline in the greatest snow QPF at that la-la never going to happen so why bother expending the energy running the model out that far time range, could take place is worse than a face slap: it's an actually beheading.

And darkness is just in the air. This buddy of mine is a ding dong. He calls while I am on the way home and asks me to give him a hand with some ski-swap type charity sail deal thing ... anyway, so i'm thinking that since Bri' can't make it until 8:30 or so like he originally said, i had like 2 hours to kill. ...so sure, why not - what the hell.

All good deeds must be punishable!

We spend like an hour filling out these pricing tags and clipping them to all this used ski and skate recycled products/junk in his musty basement, muscle it all to the back of his pick-up, haul it down 495 to Westborough ...only to show up at the swap where this giant fish in this little pond says they won't accept it unless we use their numbering system and so forth for the tags. the things is ... my buddy knew this. Now, I'm a good friend and am "on his side", but Christ! At the same time thinking inside, 'Dude, your a ****ing idiot - what were you thinking they would say if you knew they did this last year and you were going to show up - what, this year and they'd just take your own tags? You are either arrogant or stupid'

It just pissed me off.... Turned out, we didn't get out of that place in Wesborough 'till 10pm. that's so indescribably inconsiderate. I do this, I subject myself to the whims of others out of trust, and because I'm I dunno too nice or whatever, but get "accidentally" taken advantage of. All I wanted last night was to come home and go over and have a relaxing beer and a reuben at BBC in Westford like we planned, check out the local talent - hell, meet a flunckin babe for a change.

who knows.

You know, I've known the dude for like 25 years but I'm thinking, if I have not heard from him in a like a month and the phone rings, it is more likely because he wants something from me, not just to hanging out, and i have to be worried if I'm going to wind up stuck in some **** that is expending time and energy I don't want to expend.

Dumb ass.

Ah well, I guess in the end it is karma in the bank and I spent 5 hours of Friday night doing charity work.

It just won't snow. In the end, ...after all the guidance and theoretical well-penned dialogue and conversation among well-intended, none-perfunctorily negative content posters, all that consternation and rational left in the dust, the remains is swept up and thrown in the remorseless been of never satisfying lust. It just won't snow - end of story. There is no reason, there is no song, there is no model run that will be proven unwrong, it just does not matter and it just does not even need to have a process in physics.

It just won't snow.

That really more than just seems the only rational and consistent aspect to take away from - literally - all these countless depictions and failed plausible events, and that is, at the end of it all, it just won't snow.

And, what makes it really shimmeringly brutal is that it is only true right here at home in our region of the country. There is more snow at latitudes SW of us at this point than here, and there will be certainly next week ....after this 12-18 hour impossible result takes place, and a weak Colorado type cyclone zips through the OV only to get ****ed out of existence by the newly erected west-based boner of a -NAO (but not before giving 2-4" to DCA next week). Just in time to NOT snow, OH WAIT. Right, it just won't snow.

You really cannot begin to describe the difficulty there is in mentally comparing a seasons like 1977-1978, or your 1995-1996 ...or those years of the late '50s and '60s - it seems like those years could not have happened, THEN.

In the spirit of ever springs eternal hope from the prison sell of Satan's deepest most hidden dungeon:

I still believe that "hint" of snow in the D5 00z Euro is a dying Norlun as it pivots down from ME. That is not a-typical when you have a post frontal environment with jet dynamics still running over head. You end up with a convergence axis in the llv. I will also say though that with 2 or 3 contours closed off at 500mb that way, a retrograding cyclonic expression is also equally plausible however ill-define in current depictions.

The system for the 19th is still trying to show up here. Interesting that this is the 4th cycle now where the ECM has shown height falling NE of Hawaii, perhaps signaling at long last an end to this bullet in the head -PNA during that same time. The NAO ridge persist.

What in the sam hell is going on here?

[Typhoon Tip]

Woa, Will, Scott, Kevin, Ray...like everyone...did you see that 130kt jet core blasting SE off the Carolinas at 48 hours on the 12z NAM??!!

That is substantially more powerful then previous runs. Hard to believe that won't cause this thing to smartly close off and get yanked S of our latitudes -

[CoastalWx]

Woa, Will, Scott, Kevin, Ray...like everyone...did you see that 130kt jet core blasting SE off the Carolinas at 48 hours on the 12z NAM??!!

That is substantially more powerful then previous runs. Hard to believe that won't cause this thing to smartly close off and get yanked S of our latitudes -

I'm hoping we can pull a couple of inches down the road, like what the euro has...but we all know how retro lows can bust as well. GFS rolling out now.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm hoping we can pull a couple of inches down the road, like what the euro has...but we all know how retro lows can bust as well. GFS rolling out now.

It's really neat to watch the model fight the vortex against the developing -NAO ridge wall -

[Tropopause_Fold]

hopefully we can get that 5h feature to close a bit further south this week

[Damage In Tolland]

Woa, Will, Scott, Kevin, Ray...like everyone...did you see that 130kt jet core blasting SE off the Carolinas at 48 hours on the 12z NAM??!!

That is substantially more powerful then previous runs. Hard to believe that won't cause this thing to smartly close off and get yanked S of our latitudes -

Like oh my God..barf out gag me with a spoon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnVE3UTIgEM

[Tropopause_Fold]

hopefully we can get that 5h feature to close a bit further south this week

or...lets hope it gets the f out of the way. LOL