The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

Any changeover on Monday will amount to little more than some flakes in the air for 98% of this board.

Still looks to me like 1-2 inches for western/Central SNE

[moneypitmike]

No it even gets snow back to your area. Right now it's a 1-3 deal on the Euro..but there's room for more if we can get a good moisture feed from the NE as it wraps around the low backing in

That'll be a nice thing were it to pan out.

I'm more hopeful for an inch or two before the change tomorrow than I am on the same at the back end.

EDIT: "hopeful" is the wrong word. Meant to say "confident".

[MaineJayhawk]

Still looks to me like 1-2 inches for western/Central SNE

Using the Blizz/Reality Converter comes up with a value of .25" for the backend.

[moneypitmike]

Using the Blizz/Reality Converter comes up with a value of .25" for the backend.

I think the formula for the BRC index is as follows:

((x-y)/2 + y) * . 25 = G

Where x = Kevin's high range, y= the low range and G= the realized accumulation.

(j/k, Kevin).

16.9/14

[CoastalWx]

That'll be a nice thing were it to pan out.

I'm more hopeful for an inch or two before the change tomorrow than I am on the same at the back end.

EDIT: "hopeful" is the wrong word. Meant to say "confident".

You'll probably see a little snow on the backside later tomorrow night and Monday. I could see that.

[weatherwiz]

You'll probably see a little snow on the backside later tomorrow night and Monday. I could see that.

How are the ensembles like for the upcoming period with storm potential?

[CoastalWx]

How are the ensembles like for the upcoming period with storm potential?

Not bad. Some of them lose the storm that the op runs have for Friday/Saturday next week, but still target the 20-21 for something.

As far as next week goes, we could get some retro action, but still too early to call imo.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not bad. Some of them lose the storm that the op runs have for Friday/Saturday next week, but still target the 20-21 for something.

As far as next week goes, we could get some retro action, but still too early to call imo.

Will likes it..the retro

[weatherwiz]

Not bad. Some of them lose the storm that the op runs have for Friday/Saturday next week, but still target the 20-21 for something.

As far as next week goes, we could get some retro action, but still too early to call imo.

Well as long as they continue to show an active pattern we can just take our chances from there. This week seems real interesting with the retrograding potential, maybe some spots can luck out with this, hopefully this is good enough to where just about everyone can get at least some sort of accumulations.

[CoastalWx]

Will likes it..the retro

I think we both like it, but it's not a lock. The euro ensembles keep most of the qpf further north, but do sling some moisture down to sne. I'm not sure if I want this, because there is going to be a pretty good area of low pressure coming out of the Plains, and this retro low might squash it. That said, something to watch for next week. It looks better now, than 48hrs ago..but not a lock.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think we both like it, but it's not a lock. The euro ensembles keep most of the qpf further north, but do sling some moisture down to sne. I'm not sure if I want this, because there is going to be a pretty good area of low pressure coming out of the Plains, and this retro low might squash it. That said, something to watch for next week. It looks better now, than 48hrs ago..but not a lock.

should be an entertaining week one way or the other.

definitely some positive signals for at least *some* snow in parts of the region.

[ski MRG]

I'll probably rub a little cream on your backside later tomorrow night and Monday. I could see that.

Whoa, you guys should just PM that stuff.

[CoastalWx]

should be an entertaining week one way or the other.

definitely some positive signals for at least *some* snow in parts of the region.

Yeah agreed. This is about as good as I've ever felt about the next two weeks at any point this winter. Of course it may mean crap, but it seems to have more of a stormier look.

[cpickett79]

can't we pool some money and next time we have a moist cool airmass w/o enough lift.....just pay some company to start seeding clouds and create a damn snowfall event i don't care if we have to do this artificially.

everyone cash out their 401k's ...BA's etc....and let's get SNE winter rolling already.....either that or i'm gonna set up a snow machine and report the nightly accumulation's as legit as i dissassociate from reality from the pain of snowless dec so far.

front end dump tommorrow overperform?

actually it would appear to me that SW interior maine has some room to suprise on the upside for front end stuff tommorrow am. drier cool air bleeding in from the N.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah agreed. This is about as good as I've ever felt about the next two weeks at any point this winter. Of course it may mean crap, but it seems to have more of a stormier look.

haha...yeah that's always on the table.

the mid-week set-up is definitely tricky (and somewhat of a longshot for anything too substantial). i'm wondering if we can at least manage snows along the coast from a general NNE flow in the low and mid-levels from ME to MA even if no real trough feature rotates through?

[MaineJayhawk]

can't we pool some money and next time we have a moist cool airmass w/o enough lift.....just pay some company to start seeding clouds and create a damn snowfall event i don't care if we have to do this artificially.

everyone cash out their 401k's ...BA's etc....and let's get SNE winter rolling already.....either that or i'm gonna set up a snow machine and report the nightly accumulation's as legit as i dissassociate from reality from the pain of snowless dec so far.

front end dump tommorrow overperform?

Hold on to your 401k and just move to Vermont. You've seen powderfreak's pics.

[dryslot]

Was nice having to read thru about 6 pages of banter to get something worth reading, Glad i looked at the models before hand, Looks like some frontend and some backend snows on the euro with the storm track of 2010 retrograding lows........

[cpickett79]

Was nice having to read thru about 6 pages of banter to get something worth reading, Glad i looked at the models before hand, Looks like some frontend and some backend snows on the euro with the storm track of 2010 retrograding lows........

it looks like you have decent potential with front end snow to suprise to the upside....if a wedge of cooler 850's could settle down in away from the coast. not sure if they are callng for any accum's up by you tommorrow am?

[Ginx snewx]

Hate to beat a dead horse to death but when God speaks I listen AO AO AO AO AO, Don S has spoken

"If the AO falls to -4 or below, that will be the first time on record that it has fallen to such an extreme level when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.00°C or below. However, it has fallen to such levels during three La Niñas with December ENSO Region 3.4 values of -0.80°C or colder: 1950, 1995, and 2000"

The chances for a decent storm are greatly enhanced for the next three weeks if Ens modelling has the teleconnectors correct. This might not be the pattern far NNE likes but for us in SNE yes SOUTHERN New England this type of pattern is fantastic. The snowholes of SECT and CC and SRI benefit most from the setups. Lots of distant interior folks could suffer a little with reduced accumulations but down here I feel this is our chance to get on the board. The Euro has painted mid week next week as a good chance for the mentioned above areas to get a couple of inches on board, also I believe OES for the favored Cape/Plymouth will enhance snow on the NNE flow. Then the 19th again looms large for potential. All of us need the remants of this weekends rain storm which bombs in Nova Scotia to gradually move out of the way to allow for bombogensis to take place off the Delmarva. Just like Dec 19th last year there could be a tremendous cutoff in precip. All speculation but the tanking AO tells me stormy times coming, hopefully the PV orientation is relaxed enough to allow for two things, further Northen penetration of the bombing system and expansive more typical precip shield so that far interior folks benefit.

[CoastalWx]

Hate to beat a dead horse to death but when God speaks I listen AO AO AO AO AO, Don S has spoken

"If the AO falls to -4 or below, that will be the first time on record that it has fallen to such an extreme level when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.00°C or below. However, it has fallen to such levels during three La Niñas with December ENSO Region 3.4 values of -0.80°C or colder: 1950, 1995, and 2000"

The chances for a decent storm are greatly enhanced for the next three weeks if Ens modelling has the teleconnectors correct. This might not be the pattern far NNE likes but for us in SNE yes SOUTHERN New England this type of pattern is fantastic. The snowholes of SECT and CC and SRI benefit most from the setups. Lots of distant interior folks could suffer a little with reduced accumulations but down here I feel this is our chance to get on the board. The Euro has painted mid week next week as a good chance for the mentioned above areas to get a couple of inches on board, also I believe OES for the favored Cape/Plymouth will enhance snow on the NNE flow. Then the 19th again looms large for potential. All of us need the remants of this weekends rain storm which bombs in Nova Scotia to gradually move out of the way to allow for bombogensis to take place off the Delmarva. Just like Dec 19th last year there could be a tremendous cutoff in precip. All speculation but the tanking AO tells me stormy times coming, hopefully the PV orientation is relaxed enough to allow for two things, further Northen penetration of the bombing system and expansive more typical precip shield so that far interior folks benefit.

[Ginx snewx]

I want your

Geez dude you are a ho, this week I think you have been with almost everyone here. From the couch with belt loosened to now this. Can not stress it enough I am all set but thanks for the offer.

[CoastalWx]

Geez dude you are a ho, this week I think you have been with almost everyone here. From the couch with belt loosened to now this. Can not stress it enough I am all set but thanks for the offer.

[Ginx snewx]

LOL hey best show on TV this week, Full Throttle Saloon on Tru TV, HOT HOT HOT

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hate to beat a dead horse to death but when God speaks I listen AO AO AO AO AO, Don S has spoken

"If the AO falls to -4 or below, that will be the first time on record that it has fallen to such an extreme level when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.00°C or below. However, it has fallen to such levels during three La Niñas with December ENSO Region 3.4 values of -0.80°C or colder: 1950, 1995, and 2000"

The chances for a decent storm are greatly enhanced for the next three weeks if Ens modelling has the teleconnectors correct. This might not be the pattern far NNE likes but for us in SNE yes SOUTHERN New England this type of pattern is fantastic. The snowholes of SECT and CC and SRI benefit most from the setups. Lots of distant interior folks could suffer a little with reduced accumulations but down here I feel this is our chance to get on the board. The Euro has painted mid week next week as a good chance for the mentioned above areas to get a couple of inches on board, also I believe OES for the favored Cape/Plymouth will enhance snow on the NNE flow. Then the 19th again looms large for potential. All of us need the remants of this weekends rain storm which bombs in Nova Scotia to gradually move out of the way to allow for bombogensis to take place off the Delmarva. Just like Dec 19th last year there could be a tremendous cutoff in precip. All speculation but the tanking AO tells me stormy times coming, hopefully the PV orientation is relaxed enough to allow for two things, further Northen penetration of the bombing system and expansive more typical precip shield so that far interior folks benefit.

It's already been done, hence it is dead

This should be an interesting next 2-3 weeks. You guys will hopefully see a slow but steady ramp-up of events as we near Christmas and the week after. 2-3", 4-6", 7-9", then KAPOW!

[cpickett79]

what is that little turd of a feature off the SE N.C coast. It seems to me like IT RETARDS the strength and position of what would otherwise be a potentially explosive secondary low pressure forming sometime late sunday nite right OFF the delmarva.

but instead with this turd chuggin up the east coast.....the secondary takes shape further west and really torches the mid levels and in effect screws NY state and Western VT who were really the only one's in this game (around mid week).

because tonite the arctic/ cold front settles down into SNH as a HP near 1027 builds briefly over quebec....and it seems if not for this POS chuggin up the east coast that things would evolve more wintry for alot of NYS and W. VT...but perhaps i'm off. any thoughts

i used the graphics here to derive my idea

http://www.hpc.ncep....basicwx_wbg.php

i think the 18z gfs either wed or thurs nite let this lead "turd" head NE skimming us and moving under us....helping the whole trough progess eastward as the main LP washed out and the energy congealed more toward the secondary along the east coast giving SNE the most wintry scenario of any model to date.

why can't that F'N Happen. from someone trying to learn's perspective.....why is this turd of a low not heading out NE tonite (with a weakish 1027 HP located over quebec) and tanking AO ........but instead heads inland N/NNW Over the mid atlantic and later merges with main LP near montreal .

[mahk_webstah]

can't we pool some money and next time we have a moist cool airmass w/o enough lift.....just pay some company to start seeding clouds and create a damn snowfall event i don't care if we have to do this artificially.

everyone cash out their 401k's ...BA's etc....and let's get SNE winter rolling already.....either that or i'm gonna set up a snow machine and report the nightly accumulation's as legit as i dissassociate from reality from the pain of snowless dec so far.

front end dump tommorrow overperform?

actually it would appear to me that SW interior maine has some room to suprise on the upside for front end stuff tommorrow am. drier cool air bleeding in from the N.

Please extend that to the lakes region of nh.

I think we are in a stepping down, pattern evolving process. Our expecations were too high too early. We are just fine and we should have good snow cover or xmas, perhaps all the way to the coast, but I'm not convinced of that yet.

[Baroclinic Zone]

It just wouldn't be the 06z GFS without the obligatory 384h Blizzard.

[cpickett79]

not sure if this effects anyone in NYS or Pa

but yesterday 12z gfs ens had all 12 panels showing phased ECoast LP by 00z mon (60hr)

but last nite's 0z gfs ens for same period have only half of the panels phased by then 00z mon. (48hr)

[cpickett79]

12z nam looks worse for front end snow as 850 0c line runs further north (at 12z sun) as precip is getting/ already overspreading area

only intersting tidbit is nam drops 0c 850 line down over extreme N. essex county much of S NH and SW maine at 18z sunday. not sure what BL temps are / winds at that time frame but should any drainage flow set up that could lead to some added snow into the early afternoon.

seems like their is still some potential tomm. morn so attention should still be paid esp. in S/ C NH SW maine.

[Tropopause_Fold]

12z nam looks worse for front end snow as 850 0c line runs further north (at 12z sun) as precip is getting/ already overspreading area

only intersting tidbit is nam drops 0c 850 line down over extreme N. essex county much of S NH and SW maine at 18z sunday. not sure what BL temps are / winds at that time frame but should any drainage flow set up that could lead to some added snow into the early afternoon.

seems like their is still some potential tomm. morn so attention should still be paid esp. in S/ C NH SW maine.