The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

[ORH_wxman]

bong hit gone horribly wrong?

Don S does say a KU has never occured (since 1950) with region 3.4 enso at -1 or greater anomaly. So our odds for a KU with the tanking AO are slim in his opinion.

But there is not much of a sample size (if any) for the AO Going -4 and having a greater than 1c anomaly over enso region 3.4

Eh, big whoop if its technically a KU or not....as long as we get some good snow. A decent number of our 12" events aren't even KUs because they didn't hit areas further south.

BOS had 2 12"+ snowstorms in '75-'76 winter, but they are not KU storms. That's just an example of a strong Nina that produced some impressive events.

[Typhoon Tip]

Eh, big whoop if its technically a KU or not....as long as we get some good snow. A decent number of our 12" events aren't even KUs because they didn't hit areas further south.

BOS had 2 12"+ snowstorms in '75-'76 winter, but they are not KU storms. That's just an example of a strong Nina that produced some impressive events.

I wasn't overwhelmed by what that would mean N of 40N either

[Typhoon Tip]

well i did notice the 500mb low did come in further S on the 0z gfs

perhaps relating to your correction vector tapping into the RAPIDLY PLUNGING AO as we speak?

that was a joke post - sorry if wasn't obvious... I took the Twin Falls AFD and substituted some local sites...

It is farther S but not enough.

[cpickett79]

Eh, big whoop if its technically a KU or not....as long as we get some good snow. A decent number of our 12" events aren't even KUs because they didn't hit areas further south.

BOS had 2 12"+ snowstorms in '75-'76 winter, but they are not KU storms. That's just an example of a strong Nina that produced some impressive events.

thanks will .......that makes me wonder how many 12" + events we (SNE) have enjoyed with the 3.4 enso region having a -1c or greater anomaly. any clue (since there have been no KU's ..since 1950)

[cpickett79]

that was a joke post - sorry if wasn't obvious... I took the Twin Falls AFD and substituted some local sites...

It is farther S but not enough.

lol it was very obvious

but i was serious about the correction vector ...plunging AO and wondering if the S position of the 500mb low was possibly related to the models catching on to this rapid plunge . just tell me there's a chance...... .03% or so?

[Typhoon Tip]

lol it was very obvious

but i was serious about the correction vector ...plunging AO and wondering if the S position of the 500mb low was possibly related to the models catching on to this rapid plunge . just tell me there's a chance...... .03% or so?

There really was a chance, but I am noticing as this is evolving that the dynamics are wrapping initially too close to the center of the trough axis causing too early of a closure ...that effects a more N position out in time - not good for the 'thread of the needle' scenario.

Btw, light snow here, 23F

[weathafella]

There really was a chance, but I am noticing as this is evolving that the dynamics are wrapping initially too close to the center of the trough axis causing a too early of a closure ...that effects a more N position out in time - not good for the 'thread of the needle' scenario.

Btw, light snow here, 23F

Finally steady but very light snow....not even enough to coat anything. Off to bed.

[ORH_wxman]

thanks will .......that makes me wonder how many 12" + events we (SNE) have enjoyed with the 3.4 enso region having a -1c or greater anomaly. any clue (since there have been no KU's ..since 1950)

Well lets see...there really aren't a ton of months where that anomaly occurred (like Feb/Mar 1956 had warmed above -1C by that point)...but here is the list for our region, I tried to specify if only part of the region got hit:

Dec 22-23, 1970

Nov 25, 1971 (interior only)

Feb 2-3, 1974

Dec 21-22, 1975

Jan 11-12, 1976

Feb 24-25, 1989 (Cape Cod only)

Feb 25, 1999 (Cape hit hardest, but 10"+ amounts back to ORH)

Dec 13, 2007 (some areas got a foot, BOS/ORH fell just shy)

I don't think any of those events I listed are KU events.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well lets see...there really aren't a ton of months where that anomaly occurred (like Feb/Mar 1956 had warmed above -1C by that point)...but here is the list for our region, I tried to specify if only part of the region got hit:

Dec 22-23, 1970

Nov 25, 1971 (interior only)

Feb 2-3, 1974

Dec 21-22, 1975

Jan 11-12, 1976

Feb 24-25, 1989 (Cape Cod only)

Feb 25, 1999 (Cape hit hardest, but 10"+ amounts back to ORH)

Dec 13, 2007 (some areas got a foot, BOS/ORH fell just shy)

I don't think any of those events I listed are KU events.

Will, interesting, ... I just went through all of these at NCEP's library and all were neutral-positive NAO's

[ORH_wxman]

Will, interesting, ... I just went through all of these at NCEP's library and all were neutral-positive NAO's

I think the Dec 1970 event was neg NAO. But yeah, most events were neutral to +NAO...we just never see this type of block in a strong Nina!

[Typhoon Tip]

I think the Dec 1970 event was neg NAO. But yeah, most events were neutral to +NAO...we just never see this type of block in a strong Nina!

Exactly my point!! You almost have to wonder with the 'uncharted waters'. Man what a time

[larvay]

theres parts of NE NJ which are further inland than you...

Theres ??? Further??? How about trying "There are" and "farther". I thought you were in college? There are parts of Kansas that are farther inland as well, so? You could use further, I geuss. Hope you aren't an English Major though.

Linguistic niceties aside, the geographical contention is incorrect.

Just thought I'd give multiquote a shot.

[nzucker]

Don S just made a good thread in the general forum about how the AO is forecasted to tank. There have been 3 times the AO tanked to -4 or lower during a Nina of -.8 or stronger ... 2 of them produced KUs and the other still featured heavy heavy snow. The AO has never fallen to below -4 in a Nina of -1C or lower. The GFS ensemble mean is taking it to -5.

Sure, the 1050mb high in Canada will keep us below average, but does this really matter for snow? The NAO actually gets too big and keeps an ULL over Maine leading to another week of brutally cold and dry conditions under persistent NW flow...this is the winter that chaps lips but doesn't bring snow. First the NAO is too big and suppresses the clipper into a NC event on 12/5, then the NAO is too far east and causes a cutter, then it's back to being too big again and just suppresses everything. Also, we have an Aleutian ridge and GoA/Pac NW low which isn't a signal for a KU storm in general. GFS shows a 516dm vortex in the GoA with a totally flat flow over the west, not going to cut it.

[nzucker]

Linguistic niceties aside, the geographical contention is incorrect.

Just thought I'd give multiquote a shot.

I believe in terms of denotation, "further" and "farther" are equivalent. However, in common speech one tends to hear "further" used more in a psychological sense and "farther" in a more physical sense.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro really hinting at some retrograde action for D5 and beyond.

[40/70 Benchmark]

First flakes of the year (at least that I have observed)!

S-

25.4\16

[skierinvermont]

Sure, the 1050mb high in Canada will keep us below average, but does this really matter for snow? The NAO actually gets too big and keeps an ULL over Maine leading to another week of brutally cold and dry conditions under persistent NW flow...this is the winter that chaps lips but doesn't bring snow. First the NAO is too big and suppresses the clipper into a NC event on 12/5, then the NAO is too far east and causes a cutter, then it's back to being too big again and just suppresses everything. Also, we have an Aleutian ridge and GoA/Pac NW low which isn't a signal for a KU storm in general. GFS shows a 516dm vortex in the GoA with a totally flat flow over the west, not going to cut it.

Pretty sure Don S is talking about the next 3+ weeks not just the next 7 days

[nzucker]

Pretty sure Don S is talking about the next 3+ weeks not just the next 7 days

Oh yes definitely...I am just not that excited yet as my Aleutian low gun is not properly oiled this winter.

Still just looks like weather that wears your lips and hands down to rubber.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro gives an inch or two from the retrograde action between 120-144...potentially more could be had though looking at the synoptic setup. S ME sees more and it looks like it wants to get down into SNE.

[skierinvermont]

Is that a Miller B forming D7 or is it going to get suppressed?

[ORH_wxman]

Is that a Miller B forming D7 or is it going to get suppressed?

Its gets suppressed by the block...but thats as far north as I've that thing come in most runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its gets suppressed by the block...but thats as far north as I've that thing come in most runs.

:lol:

I'm with Nate on this pattern....and not just because of that one deterministic soloution.

[nzucker]

GFS also shows the storm threat around Day 7 as being suppressed although there's been a slight trend towards a stronger, further north system. I'm just skeptical for NYC north with a cut-off sitting over Maine, seems like 12/5 where we were awaiting a Miller B and all we did was watch crappy North Carolina drivers sliding around in the rare snowfall while we enjoyed another night in the teens with brown ground.

[ORH_wxman]

ULL is actually amplifying pretty good at 204h...it has precip breaking out over SNE.

Its definitely something to watch.

[skierinvermont]

Well if the blocking trends one way or another we will probably get either a retrograder or a Miller B.. we would have to thread the needle to get neither.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS also shows the storm threat around Day 7 as being suppressed although there's been a slight trend towards a stronger, further north system. I'm just skeptical for NYC north with a cut-off sitting over Maine, seems like 12/5 where we were awaiting a Miller B and all we did was watch crappy North Carolina drivers sliding around in the rare snowfall while we enjoyed another night in the teens with brown ground.

It's probably going to be another tremendous block that will leave meteorologists around the globe in awe, with the caveat that you'll need a calculator to appreciate the exotic magnitude of the anomaly because it will not manifest itself as sensible wx in our neck of the woods.

[nzucker]

Well if the blocking trends one way or another we will probably get either a retrograder or a Miller B.. we would have to thread the needle to get neither.

This storm will probably happen in some form but it doesn't have to exist at all. We're talking about a threat 7-8 days out man, anything can happen from a Miller B Nor'easter to a suppressed VA ice storm to more sunshine and bare ground.

[ORH_wxman]

Well if the blocking trends one way or another we will probably get either a retrograder or a Miller B.. we would have to thread the needle to get neither.

Yeah exactly what happened in the Dec 5-6 threat. Had the block the perfect stretch to screw us out of the retrograde or a developing Miller B.

[nzucker]

It's probably going to be another tremendous block that will leave meteorologists around the globe in awe, with the caveat that you'll need a calculator to appreciate the anomaly because it will not manifest itself as interesting sensible wx in our neck of the woods.

You really have a way with words, Ray, in all seriousness. Do you ever consider writing for a career or have worked with it professionally?

Yes the pattern is certainly interesting from a "Wow, it's cool the atmosphere is doing this in a strong Niña...I wonder what's causing it to be so radical" but I ultimately measure the winter by how much snow falls, how much snow cover accumulates, and how cold it is. We're only doing well in the last category so far.

[ORH_wxman]

Sub 980mb well S of the benchmark at 228h...it gives us about 2-3" of snow because of the broad circulation...but if that was north a few ticks, we'd get hammered. Its out over the ocean, so Ray doesn't have to worry about watching the M.A. get buried from it while we are getting scraps. Our area is actually one of the few that sees something from it. SE VA might do well, but their temps are extremely marginal.

At any rate, so far out not be worried about it. But there's something to watch anyway.