CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Despite its scores, it always seems to come up with an extreme solution far an outlier to everyone else. I'm still waiting for that coastal solution it had se of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well, take that back...it looks like it tries to close off perhaps to our sw, but it would likely be snow to rain and then perhaps snow extrapolating out. Take a look up N, too the big difference in this run is that there is no repositioning of the NAO block, and instead keeps it anchored over D-Straight... that's not a good position for that feature and airs (no pun intended) similarly to this last event. Is it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I think the last few solutions along with ensembles demonstrate well just how tough it would be to get a cutter in this pattern....those vortexes up in the Lakes and S Canada provide quite the wall with the block securing them in place...a full earlier phase could def threaten something like a HV cutter, but thankfully that looks like the worst case scenario...lots more room to the east. yeah completely agree. lakes cutter is almost out of the question at this point (unless it's a cutter that comes down from the northeast on a retrograde ) the only wrinkle that i think still exists is a midwest digging ull and subsquent phase screwjob that pulls it too far west like some of the older ec runs showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I was going to make a comment as to if anyone else found the board to be slow today but they popped a mesage about upgrading , cool......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If the euro is just a half-day slow with the southern stream energy moving through the Southwest we will be in great shape. And what's the euro's most pronounced bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 euro and gfs threatening 12/89-type of deal here. just perpetual, unrelenting, Ryan's-dog-wearing-a-sweater cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 wow...yeah it is. let's get that inside 3 days now. Congrats! 37.4/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS ensembles at same time as GGEM image... #5 for me, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 How does temps look with the 12z EURO for the Cape? Is there any mention of potential mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks like a scraper....maybe Phil gets warning criteria on this run...BOS maybe gets advisory. Partly cloudy and windy:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Now, now, Cape Cod, MA is far from being the winners with this system. It will either be out to sea, or too strong and too west and brings rain into the coastal plain. We need almost a perfect scenario this time of year for snow on Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The models are kind today ... even the only one that matters. Fun times dead ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I just wish this was already 3 days away that way we could actually see the EURO coming to fruition. 12z NAM shows a further north tracking clipper for mid week. Would this by any chance if it continues northward, crush our coastal storm chances? Is there a way we can get them both up the coast without on suppressing the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Does anyone see potential southwest flow OES event for tomorrow? Some models are picking up on this signal, like the GEFS means showing .10-.25" of QPF tomorrow 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 FWIW the Canadian ensembles are further sw of the 0z runs. Still offshore, but likely brush the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I am more enthused about the upcoming threat because for once this year, We have something inside of day 10 that looks like it could be legit and is showing up on numerous models.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 euro and gfs threatening 12/89-type of deal here. just perpetual, unrelenting, Ryan's-dog-wearing-a-sweater cold. Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Awful Yeah, when I look at the unchanging euro maps from day 6-10 I'm reminded of Chevy Chase in European Vacation ...."look kids, Big Ben, Parliament! Big Ben, Parliament! Big Ben, Parliament!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I am more enthused about the upcoming threat because for once this year, We have something inside of day 10 that looks like it could be legit and is showing up on numerous models.......... the weekend storm did that about two weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Euro ensembles similar to the op at hr 132. Definitely deeper with the trough in the Midwest and further west with the srfc low than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ECMWF ensembles are just a bit SE of the benchmark at 144h....they look good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks like the mean is maybe 50-70 miles se of the BM? Slower and south of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Euro ensembles similar to the op at hr 132. Definitely deeper with the trough in the Midwest and further west with the srfc low than 00z. It's almost time to dial this is. One more day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ECMWF ensembles are just a bit SE of the benchmark at 144h....they look good right now. Look how much deeper the trough is to the west, as compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Look how much deeper the trough is to the west, as compared to 00z. Yeah clearly more phasing going on...hopefully we can get this look another 24-36 hours from now...by then it will be getting close to deadly range (relatively speaking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yeah clearly more phasing going on...hopefully we can get this look another 24-36 hours from now...by then it will be getting close to deadly range (relatively speaking) We need this one bad for the sanity of the board, Kevs not around tossing weenies, He must be prepping the bus........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yeah clearly more phasing going on...hopefully we can get this look another 24-36 hours from now...by then it will be getting close to deadly range (relatively speaking) I can't see this cutting inland either, with clearly a consensus that some part of the vortex breaks off toward Newfoundland, which would limit s/w ridging ahead of the storm, and delay wave breaking until it reaches the east coast. There's still a risk that the upper low remains intact over New England and pancakes this thing, but given the translation of the blocking ridge, I would think it gets disturbed, as shown in the latest Euro run. Feeling decent about our chances at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 PREDICT THE 18Z GFS GAME 1) Flat with no reflection: 2) Flat but out to sea: 3) Open wave coastal cyclogenisis (no phase): 4) Open wave insland cyclogenisis to Miller B (no phase): 5) Deep open wave OV cyclogenesis to Miller B (no phase): 6) Deep open wave OV cyclogenesis merge with Miller A/Miller B hybrid (some limited phasing): 7) Deep open wave closing with PV partial phase, OV cyclogenesis to Miller B: 8) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, OV cyclogenesis to Miller B: 9) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, OV/GULF Miller A/Miller B hybrid: 10) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, Miller A Miller B merger: In 1 to 10, weakest to most intents resulting system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 We need this one bad for the sanity of the board, Kevs not around tossing weenies, He must be prepping the bus........... Amen to that. Hopefully we can start chucking high and low soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 John I would say: 9, similar to the 6z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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