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The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

TalcottWx

By TalcottWx,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

General trend looks like strengthening high SLP to our north which would make all the difference in getting a few inches of snow before changing over.

Steve just said, and I think I've said it several time over the past few days...but man, it really sucks this clipper is advecting this airmass out of our region and not replenishing it with any CAA...a decent air mass would probably produce a nice front end event.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Because everyone on this forum types like they're supposed to right? They use exact typographical correctness and grammar?

I'll show you my transcript that has the CUM GPA: 3.861 mark at the bottom if you'd like :weight_lift::popcorn:

by the way, have I told you, lately, that I love you? You also ironically goofed on your spelling of "geuss". :yikes::unsure:

You have a CUM GPA? They grade you for that stuff these days? Geez I just had a regular GPA...:unsure:. I knew I was missing something in my college experience.....

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Steve just said, and I think I've said it several time over the past few days...but man, it really sucks this clipper is advecting this airmass out of our region and not replenishing it with any CAA...a decent air mass would probably produce a nice front end event.

Many reasons why this clipper totally screws us over here. We could easily be talking about a warning criteria front end dump in the interior if this was a stronger clipper moving through

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

General trend looks like strengthening high SLP to our north which would make all the difference in getting a few inches of snow before changing over.

Is the Nam the only one showing more High Pressure to our north? I like sneaky highs. I am 60 miles north of the Pike. I think something snowy will show up by Friday. Something that isn't showing now on guidance or is just being hinted at. Climo FTW

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Steve just said, and I think I've said it several time over the past few days...but man, it really sucks this clipper is advecting this airmass out of our region and not replenishing it with any CAA...a decent air mass would probably produce a nice front end event.

Will, why have forcast high temps been busting so much lately? All summer and most of the Fall Box's temp forecasts were spot on. Now it seems forecast highs have been 4-7 degrees to high on a regular basis. I think MPM and several others have noted this as well. I've paid less attention to lows but I know last night went lower than forecast.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Will, why have forcast high temps been busting so much lately? All summer and most of the Fall Box's temp forecasts were spot on. Now it seems forecast highs have been 4-7 degrees to high on a regular basis. I think MPM and several others have noted this as well. I've paid less attention to lows but I know last night went lower than forecast.

Because Mike no longer works there. :whistle:

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

Will, why have forcast high temps been busting so much lately? All summer and most of the Fall Box's temp forecasts were spot on. Now it seems forecast highs have been 4-7 degrees to high on a regular basis. I think MPM and several others have noted this as well. I've paid less attention to lows but I know last night went lower than forecast.

were you looking at point/click forecasts? They're too general..especially in your location where terrain features can influence little microclimates

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

Don S just made a good thread in the general forum about how the AO is forecasted to tank. There have been 3 times the AO tanked to -4 or lower during a Nina of -.8 or stronger ... 2 of them produced KUs and the other still featured heavy heavy snow. The AO has never fallen to below -4 in a Nina of -1C or lower. The GFS ensemble mean is taking it to -5.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

Don S just made a good thread in the general forum about how the AO is forecasted to tank. There have been 3 times the AO tanked to -4 or lower during a Nina of -.8 or stronger ... 2 of them produced KUs and the other still featured heavy heavy snow. The AO has never fallen to below -4 in a Nina of -1C or lower. The GFS ensemble mean is taking it to -5.

Boldly going where no man has gone before.

I like it. Let's see where this takes us. Hopefully not historic snows in the southeast.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Don S just made a good thread in the general forum about how the AO is forecasted to tank. There have been 3 times the AO tanked to -4 or lower during a Nina of -.8 or stronger ... 2 of them produced KUs and the other still featured heavy heavy snow. The AO has never fallen to below -4 in a Nina of -1C or lower. The GFS ensemble mean is taking it to -5.

All of these people are excited!

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

Don S just made a good thread in the general forum about how the AO is forecasted to tank. There have been 3 times the AO tanked to -4 or lower during a Nina of -.8 or stronger ... 2 of them produced KUs and the other still featured heavy heavy snow. The AO has never fallen to below -4 in a Nina of -1C or lower. The GFS ensemble mean is taking it to -5.

wow i think everyone needs to read this....i think ray will sport some wood.

in the meantime the 0z gfs does bring the 500mb low significantly further S then earlier runs (100 miles or so) and phases it about 6 hours later. if only it could phase later and have some other magick with a secondary .....and perhaps a further S trend. I know i should stop i can't help it thou LOL>

But DON S is the man and we gotta keep our eyes open for the real deal soon.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

BY SATURDAY...CROSS SECTION DATA SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS

OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST CT THROUGH MA

AND INTO SOUTHERN NH. THIS FRONTOGENESIS IS IN THE

PRIME DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH A LARGE AREA OF NEAR NEGATIVE TO

NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE. THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IS ESSENTIALLY

STRAIGHT UP FROM 700 TO 300 MB. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT IS A REAL

TROUBLE MAKER ON SATURDAY IS THE POTENT PV ANOMALY PROGGED INTO

SOUTHERN RI BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...RIGHT ALONG THE DEFORMATION

ZONE. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING WITH MIXING RATIOS IN THE 2 TO 3 G/JG

RANGE WITH 2.5 IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT

HOLDING BACK ON THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE FORCING...INSTABILITY AND PV

ANOMALY. LATEST SNOW TOTAL GRIDS HAVE 18 TO 25 INCHES FOR THE

INTERIOR WITH 12 TO 16 INCHES IN SOUTH AND EAST ZONE. ELSEWHERE...10

INCH AMOUNTS CURVE FROM THE CAPE THROUGH ISLANDS...

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

BY SATURDAY...CROSS SECTION DATA SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS

OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST CT THROUGH MA

AND INTO SOUTHERN NH. THIS FRONTOGENESIS IS IN THE

PRIME DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH A LARGE AREA OF NEAR NEGATIVE TO

NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE. THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IS ESSENTIALLY

STRAIGHT UP FROM 700 TO 300 MB. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT IS A REAL

TROUBLE MAKER ON SATURDAY IS THE POTENT PV ANOMALY PROGGED INTO

SOUTHERN RI BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...RIGHT ALONG THE DEFORMATION

ZONE. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING WITH MIXING RATIOS IN THE 2 TO 3 G/JG

RANGE WITH 2.5 IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT

HOLDING BACK ON THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE FORCING...INSTABILITY AND PV

ANOMALY. LATEST SNOW TOTAL GRIDS HAVE 18 TO 25 INCHES FOR THE

INTERIOR WITH 12 TO 16 INCHES IN SOUTH AND EAST ZONE. ELSEWHERE...10

INCH AMOUNTS CURVE FROM THE CAPE THROUGH ISLANDS...

Well, if I find a hot tub time machine for 18 years ago, I'll call you! :thumbsup:

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

BY SATURDAY...CROSS SECTION DATA SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS

OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST CT THROUGH MA

AND INTO SOUTHERN NH. THIS FRONTOGENESIS IS IN THE

PRIME DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH A LARGE AREA OF NEAR NEGATIVE TO

NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE. THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IS ESSENTIALLY

STRAIGHT UP FROM 700 TO 300 MB. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT IS A REAL

TROUBLE MAKER ON SATURDAY IS THE POTENT PV ANOMALY PROGGED INTO

SOUTHERN RI BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...RIGHT ALONG THE DEFORMATION

ZONE. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING WITH MIXING RATIOS IN THE 2 TO 3 G/JG

RANGE WITH 2.5 IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT

HOLDING BACK ON THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE FORCING...INSTABILITY AND PV

ANOMALY. LATEST SNOW TOTAL GRIDS HAVE 18 TO 25 INCHES FOR THE

INTERIOR WITH 12 TO 16 INCHES IN SOUTH AND EAST ZONE. ELSEWHERE...10

INCH AMOUNTS CURVE FROM THE CAPE THROUGH ISLANDS...

The upstate NY forum is elsewhere.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

bong hit gone horribly wrong?

Don S does say a KU has never occured (since 1950) with region 3.4 enso at -1 or greater anomaly. So our odds for a KU with the tanking AO are slim in his opinion.

But there is not much of a sample size (if any) for the AO Going -4 and having a greater than 1c anomaly over enso region 3.4

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

BY SATURDAY...CROSS SECTION DATA SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS

OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST CT THROUGH MA

AND INTO SOUTHERN NH. THIS FRONTOGENESIS IS IN THE

PRIME DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH A LARGE AREA OF NEAR NEGATIVE TO

NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE. THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IS ESSENTIALLY

STRAIGHT UP FROM 700 TO 300 MB. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT IS A REAL

TROUBLE MAKER ON SATURDAY IS THE POTENT PV ANOMALY PROGGED INTO

SOUTHERN RI BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...RIGHT ALONG THE DEFORMATION

ZONE. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING WITH MIXING RATIOS IN THE 2 TO 3 G/JG

RANGE WITH 2.5 IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT

HOLDING BACK ON THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE FORCING...INSTABILITY AND PV

ANOMALY. LATEST SNOW TOTAL GRIDS HAVE 18 TO 25 INCHES FOR THE

INTERIOR WITH 12 TO 16 INCHES IN SOUTH AND EAST ZONE. ELSEWHERE...10

INCH AMOUNTS CURVE FROM THE CAPE THROUGH ISLANDS...

well i did notice the 500mb low did come in further S on the 0z gfs

perhaps relating to your correction vector tapping into the RAPIDLY PLUNGING AO as we speak?

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