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The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

TalcottWx

By TalcottWx,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

it's an intriguing set-up...but admittedly one that doesn't really get my hopes up too high (not that they should be at 6 days out).

meanwhile...interesting satellite loop.

Yeah pretty cool looking. Nice little ULL feature down by VA giving RIC and points east 2.5" or so.

Almost looks like rain backing into the Cape.

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
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NAM wants to bring the mid week clipper closer to SNE then the GFS. More often then not the NAM in the 60-84 hour range is not the best and seems to over amplify systems in the northern jet. I would like to take the NAM, but the GFS seems to have a better handle with this system going through NC and giving some areas of Virginia snow. Right now next weekend storm looks suspect at best. Right now not much model support in the GFS camp and most models take this system out to sea. EURO is weak with the system as well. Right now I would take the EURO over the GFS in performance at this juncture. Surprisingly enough, NWS Taunton actually talks about this system. They are normally pretty conservative to begin with and don't go into detail.

Heck of a night to be Patriots fan last night. They are stunning a lot of people. Tom Brady is the MVP.

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amarshall

amarshall

Posted
Posted

from Tim Kelley

Heavy cold air, combined with very cold ground, leaves us icy for a time this morning.

Drive with plenty of room in front, and walk like a penguin.

Part of being a weatherman is to make a forecast, then try and verify the outcome. I have saved every forecast and verification made here at NECN since March of 1992. Prior to this I put in 4 years combined forecasting in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Totaled up, this makes 23 years of 'Trying to Get it Right'. Three decades in, and I still see accurate forecasting is good only to about 48 hours out. Take this storm for example.

As recently as 120 hours ago, our weather forecasting models (on which 90% of forecasts are based), this storm was expected to pass between Bermuda and Nantucket on December 13th or so. In fact, it was not until about 96 hours ago that the storm was expected to be close enough to southern New England to even get us with any snow or rain. But then a dramatic shift occurred, about 84 hours ago the models showed a storm track much closer to New England's south coast. So all the sudden we went from a track good for snow or nothing at all, to a track of rain, perhaps snow inland. Then the next series of forecast models showed progressively west and northward corrections, to a storm that is now expected to pass over Montreal late tonight. This is an adjustment of nearly 1000 miles!

This kind of bust is not rare, and those who believe long range climate forecasts are any better, are fooling themselves.

While forecast busts are hugely frustrating, they can also bring pleasant surprises.

I was quite happy with the unexpected two feet of snow in Vermont last Tuesday. We missed that one from within 48 hours!

So do not worry if you see no weather you want in the seven day forecast.. it will likely change. For example I see the new NAM forecast model is calling for 3" of snow in Andover MA tomorrow evening :)

Despite forecasts of the Atlantic Oscillation (AO) to turn positive, it remains off the charts negative. This is North Atlantic Blocking so strong that low are forced to our west. Once again it is colder and snowy in Atlanta (28°), than Boston (52°). Cold air will return Tuesday. Snow will again fall in the mountains of VT, NH, and Western ME (hopefully with surprising totals similar to last week. But once again, we also see warm air from the north Atlantic retrograding back into Maine, so we may get rain in Northern Maine, while it snows in Vermont by late Weds. The storm that was The Blizzard That Blasted The Metrodome, will stall over Maine as an upper low. A series of Low Pressure centers along the warm/cold boundary off to our southeast will rotate in our direction all week. also a storm now coming ashore in Washington State (with Hawaiian Pineapple Connection) will bring another snow to the Mid Atlantic by Friday, will that one turn north and get us next weekend. Yes, it should (based on old rule that says the latitude a storm comes onto the west coast, is the latitude it will be neat when it goes off the east coast). I am still bullish for a white Christmas in most of New England. There will be snowy surprises here this week.

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

NAM wants to bring the mid week clipper closer to SNE then the GFS. More often then not the NAM in the 60-84 hour range is not the best and seems to over amplify systems in the northern jet. I would like to take the NAM, but the GFS seems to have a better handle with this system going through NC and giving some areas of Virginia snow. Right now next weekend storm looks suspect at best. Right now not much model support in the GFS camp and most models take this system out to sea. EURO is weak with the system as well. Right now I would take the EURO over the GFS in performance at this juncture. Surprisingly enough, NWS Taunton actually talks about this system. They are normally pretty conservative to begin with and don't go into detail.

Heck of a night to be Patriots fan last night. They are stunning a lot of people. Tom Brady is the MVP.

In other equally relevant and informative news, winter is usually colder than summer, thunder usually happens following lightning, and Lance Bass is gay.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I'd be a little more excited if there was a 4000' mountain parked about 5 miles east of here. Upslope looks so good for Vermont this week.

Haha, I was thinking that today... imagine what SNE climate would be if the ORH Hills had a 4,000ft spine instead of a rounded off 1,200-1,400ft plateau. Talk about easterly flow upslope off the ocean... the coastal plain would be buried in every single east flow event.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

NAM wants to bring the mid week clipper closer to SNE then the GFS. More often then not the NAM in the 60-84 hour range is not the best and seems to over amplify systems in the northern jet. I would like to take the NAM, but the GFS seems to have a better handle with this system going through NC and giving some areas of Virginia snow. Right now next weekend storm looks suspect at best. Right now not much model support in the GFS camp and most models take this system out to sea. EURO is weak with the system as well. Right now I would take the EURO over the GFS in performance at this juncture. Surprisingly enough, NWS Taunton actually talks about this system. They are normally pretty conservative to begin with and don't go into detail.

Heck of a night to be Patriots fan last night. They are stunning a lot of people. Tom Brady is the MVP.

Peaking now, while the Eagles slowly build for the the revenge bowl.

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

I wonder if we can sneak some mix or sn into nrn mass and srn NH later today or this evening. H7 low goes over sne with ese flow in these areas, along with some lift. Something to watch as WV shows this thing continuing to tilt negative.

It is only reasonable to anticipate thundersnow.

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