40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I think this ends up being a system that buries everyone outside of 128 and all of CT/RI aside from the islands. I think even in the BOS-PVD corridor we get a good wallop of snow but it changes or mixes for a time. That's my sense out a week. Man, the 06z GFS stayed dead-nuts on the 00z soloution.....I would lock that....perfect. Too bad we know the EURO will grab hold of it's 00z idea like a pitbull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 THESE DIFFERENCES THEN GROW WITH TIME EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO A SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A MAJOR EAST COAST SNOWSTORM BY DAYS 6/7. COMPARISONS WITH ALL OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WHICH COMPRISES OVER 100 SOLUTIONS...PLACES THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH AN EVENT AROUND 5 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 These D7 and beyond "threats" are taking the fun out of the chase. (Can't find that deadhorse IKON) Collectively its over-analyzed! Oh the times they are a changin. Lets hope this delivers with consistancy of models... sure looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 HPC really shat on the gfs solution LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Don't be a Debbie, mahk. Think Dendritic Deliciousness, or whatever the hell litchfieldlabiator calls it. I am usually on the dendrictic delicious side of things...but I felt myself getting sucked in last night..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Man, the 06z GFS stayed dead-nuts on the 00z soloution.....I would lock that....perfect. Too bad we know the EURO will grab hold of it's 00z idea like a pitbull. you'd be on the wrong side of CF with the 06z GFS...as would probably 75% of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 you'd be on the wrong side of CF with the 06z GFS...as would probably 75% of SNE That run is much better than the 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That run is much better than the 12z EURO. sure...but the result for YBY...probably not toooo much different. heavy snow to heavy disappointment, just that you'd eventually flip back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 sure...but the result for YBY...probably not toooo much different. heavy snow to heavy disappointment, just that you'd eventually flip back to snow. I'd take that run over nothing.....the 12z EURO I wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Even if a storm where to track to near BM this time of year it would (will) more-than-likely set-up CF back to 495 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Interested on everyones thoughts a week out, inside runner, benchmark, or Univ Of Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Even if a storm where to track to near BM this time of year it would (will) more-than-likely set-up CF back to 495 area. It depends on the precise wind trajectory....here it would I guess, but plenty of Dec storms in which it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'd take that run over nothing.....the 12z EURO I wouldn't. i can understand that. doesn't matter anyway...lol...because odds are not really for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 i can understand that. doesn't matter anyway...lol...because odds are not really for it. Yea, odds are for P Boring and 35*. No doubt the EURO will now remain steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Its good to see our friends down in Va snowing and sticking again this morning, this is a Nina right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Even if a storm where to track to near BM this time of year it would (will) more-than-likely set-up CF back to 495 area. I don't think an intensifying low like that would get the CF to 495. It all depends on the track and evolution of the low, but I don't think it would get very far past 128. Even the 2m temps on the GFS show the CF near 495, and that's the GFS with it's crappy resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That run is much better than the 12z EURO. Hope is unjustified. Too far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I don't think an intensifying low like that would get the CF to 495. It all depends on the track and evolution of the low, but I don't think it would get very far past 128. Even the 2m temps on the GFS show the CF near 495, and that's the GFS with it's crappy resolution. I agree.....that is why I was a abit taken aback by Phil's characterization of that particular run; that had the appeal of a rt 128 cf to me...........but I usually defer to someone of how his met prowess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Hope is unjustified. Too far out. Just speaking of the run.....said nothing of odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I don't think an intensifying low like that would get the CF to 495. It all depends on the track and evolution of the low, but I don't think it would get very far past 128. Even the 2m temps on the GFS show the CF near 495, and that's the GFS with it's crappy resolution. really? that run to me screams low and mid-level warming. i guess you'd have some ageo drainage somewhere just because the low is such a beast. i'd see will cashing in big time but a sharp drop off east of there. moot point i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I agree.....that is why I was a abit taken aback by Phil's characterization of that particular run; that had the appeal of a rt 128 cf to me...........but I usually defer to someone of how his met prowess. Well it throws back a ton of warm air just aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 really? that run to me screams low and mid-level warming. i guess you'd have some ageo drainage somewhere just because the low is such a beast. i'd see will cashing in big time but a sharp drop off east of there. moot point i suppose. Yeah that's what I just mentioned...ton of warmer air aloft, but I don't see the surface CF getting that far nw....like beyond 495 with a BM track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Just speaking of the runs.....said nothing of odds. Never said you did. Just tossing in an opinion; not necessarily in specific response to that particular post (I just replied to one referencing this specific threat for clarity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 really? that run to me screams low and mid-level warming. i guess you'd have some ageo drainage somewhere just because the low is such a beast. i'd see will cashing in big time but a sharp drop off east of there. moot point i suppose. I think I'd be right at the critical juncture, but would tear it up. That run would be nirvana.....cf ecstasy for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Anybody else take a gander at the 00z Ukie. If that isn't a recipe for MECS, I don't know what else is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Never said you did. Just tossing in an opinion; not necessarily in specific response to that particular post (I just replied to one referencing this specific threat for clarity). Got ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well it throws back a ton of warm air just aloft. Ahh....didn't look at day 7 soundings....foregive me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yeah that's what I just mentioned...ton of warmer air aloft, but I don't see the surface CF getting that far nw....like beyond 495 with a BM track. yeah maybe it would be one of those deals where a lot of areas see a crappy snow growth situation or a flip to sleet/ice for quite a while out to the 495 area...with a crappier situation further east. it would be a blockbuster for the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Anybody else take a gander at the 00z Ukie. If that isn't a recipe for MECS, I don't know what else is? I'm not a big of low pressure extending north, but the ULL trough looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yeah maybe it would be one of those deals where a lot of areas see a crappy snow growth situation or a flip to sleet/ice for quite a while out to the 495 area...with a crappier situation further east. it would be a blockbuster for the hills. I want this as far se as possible right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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