Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Measurable means 1-3 in my book over areas outside of the western hills hopefully someone gets a D-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hopefully someone gets a D-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Measurable means 1-3 in my book over areas outside of the western hills I think the challenge that will be faced with this call is that it would be light qpf coming over a fairly spread out period of time. Time that will allow for the wind to wisk it away making ability to accumulate extra difficult. I hope you're right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Happy yes..because I think the track the 12z Euro had yesterday is probably more likely than something over the BM or OTS..and can't cut west with the state of the block I'd prefer the 0Z GFS vs the Euro. Can I vote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'd prefer the 0Z GFS vs the Euro. Can I vote? Absolutely..vote away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY MONDAY. BESIDES THIS BEING DAYS 6 AND 7...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS MAKE THIS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL NOT PUT MUCH INTO THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS RUN OF THE MODELS THE GFS HAS A COLDER...STRONGER STORM MOVING RIGHT OVER THE BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN INSIDE RUNNER MOVING UP MORE DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. From Box's AFD. Gives me some trepidations but it must freak you Eastern guys out. I'll take a compromise track right over the cape or just offshore. After the EURO's complete dominance over the GFS with this last system I'm starting to look at the GFS as a depiction of what won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY MONDAY. BESIDES THIS BEING DAYS 6 AND 7...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS MAKE THIS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL NOT PUT MUCH INTO THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS RUN OF THE MODELS THE GFS HAS A COLDER...STRONGER STORM MOVING RIGHT OVER THE BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN INSIDE RUNNER MOVING UP MORE DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. From Box's AFD. Gives me some trepidations but it must freak you Eastern guys out. I'll take a compromise track right over the cape or just offshore. After the EURO's complete diminance over the GFS with this last system I'm starting to look at the GFS as a depiction of what won't happen. That was the 12z Euro which took it over PVD and switched BOS and PVD over to rain while everyone else stayed snow. 00z Euro has no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That was the 12z Euro which took it over PVD and switched BOS and PVD over to rain while everyone else stayed snow. 00z Euro has no storm. It has a storm--OTS, We;ll get some NW winds from it and a few will get flakes from off the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That was the 12z Euro which took it over PVD and switched BOS and PVD over to rain while everyone else stayed snow. 00z Euro has no storm. Great News !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Could we lock this in right now please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I think this ends up being a system that buries everyone outside of 128 and all of CT/RI aside from the islands. I think even in the BOS-PVD corridor we get a good wallop of snow but it changes or mixes for a time. That's my sense out a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Snow all week then a biggie late next weekend and early next week? Boo-yah. Snowpack made it through the night (so happy to see 4-5" of solid cover still left this morning), will freeze up tonight along with another 3-6" per BTV... retrograde storm on Wednesday-Thursday, then the big dog. Winter's roaring back in! I feel like Kev right now... very excited about this next 7 day period. My only fear is that the big storm takes a left turn up the Hudson late in the weekend... still looks possible given the H5 evolution and the fact that the storm is already moving due north by the time it hits NYC area. Only saving grace is it hits the block and stalls/drifts NE. If that block is less than forecast or the storm makes it further north than forecast, I could still see a somewhat inland track. And I'm not talking PVD to BOS track... I'm talking like NYC-ALB which would certainly suck everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I think this ends up being a system that buries everyone outside of 128 and all of CT/RI aside from the islands. I think even in the BOS-PVD corridor we get a good wallop of snow but it changes or mixes for a time. That's my sense out a week. Nice, ballsy, week-out call. God's country pulling for a coastal mix, but we'll do fine if you're all snow as well (at least most of the time we will). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nice, ballsy, week-out call. God's country pulling for a coastal mix, but we'll do fine if you're all snow as well (at least most of the time we will). Fill em up....let em rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 A fitting song to last nights Euro. If Only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I think this ends up being a system that buries everyone outside of 128 and all of CT/RI aside from the islands. I think even in the BOS-PVD corridor we get a good wallop of snow but it changes or mixes for a time. That's my sense out a week. We'll see Jerry. It's all about getting that PV to drop down into the trough. If that happens, we go BOOM, if not we get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 We'll see Jerry. It's all about getting that PV to drop down into the trough. If that happens, we go BOOM, if not we get nothing. Not really Bob. All that has to happen is the block retrogrades and changes the angle. We don't have to go boom. All we need is a different trof axis and we have at least a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 not optimistic about a storm of large magnitude. I think we find another way though to get snow in the next week. It just doesn't seem like a good setup....well I mean too many things have to happen just so. I never like storms like that from 6-7 days out. It was fun to look at last night and read the minute by minute play calling by Earthlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Not really Bob. All that has to happen is the block retrogrades and changes the angle. We don't have to go boom. All we need is a different trof axis and we have at least a moderate event. I don't can't see this being a moderate event. I think it's balls to the walls or nada. The potential here is enormous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I don't can't see this being a moderate event. I think it's balls to the walls or nada. The potential here is enormous. Strongly agree. And with the players retrograding and shifting positions the ante seems to be alot higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I don't can't see this being a moderate event. I think it's balls to the walls or nada. The potential here is enormous. Go deep or go home. Diggin' it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I don't can't see this being a moderate event. I think it's balls to the walls or nada. The potential here is enormous. I'd rather this one be weaker and squashed, allowing for an X-Mas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Right where we want it this far out.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Snow all week then a biggie late next weekend and early next week? Boo-yah. Snowpack made it through the night (so happy to see 4-5" of solid cover still left this morning), will freeze up tonight along with another 3-6" per BTV... retrograde storm on Wednesday-Thursday, then the big dog. Winter's roaring back in! I feel like Kev right now... very excited about this next 7 day period. My only fear is that the big storm takes a left turn up the Hudson late in the weekend... still looks possible given the H5 evolution and the fact that the storm is already moving due north by the time it hits NYC area. Only saving grace is it hits the block and stalls/drifts NE. If that block is less than forecast or the storm makes it further north than forecast, I could still see a somewhat inland track. And I'm not talking PVD to BOS track... I'm talking like NYC-ALB which would certainly suck everywhere. Out to sea right now looks like the best bet with a hudson valley cutter a very low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I think this ends up being a system that buries everyone outside of 128 and all of CT/RI aside from the islands. I think even in the BOS-PVD corridor we get a good wallop of snow but it changes or mixes for a time. That's my sense out a week. I think you are right on this one Jerry, Looks like it has legit potential and less likely to be a cutter we shall see.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 watch it develop out to sea, then retro back dragging marine air.....uggghhh I could just see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 watch it develop out to sea, then retro back dragging marine air.....uggghhh I could just see that. A fitting end to an awful year snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 watch it develop out to sea, then retro back dragging marine air.....uggghhh I could just see that. Don't be a Debbie, mahk. Think Dendritic Deliciousness, or whatever the hell litchfieldlabiator calls it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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