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The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion


TalcottWx

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Another great Patriots game witnessed. The Pats are really making a tremendous case of being the overall favorites to win the superbowl. Hopefully the McCourty rib injury is nothing serious. I never thought that he would be where he is today at the beginning of the season. One heck of a first round pick. Already paying instant dividends for us. I hope the Patriots keep it up. THe only ones that can stop the Pats are themselves. Snows possible midweek? Also it looks like a potential snowstorm next week. Could mean rain for the coastal plain again.

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Remember when we had some -5 to -6 or lower here?

I don't think we had many -5/-6C anomalies at the surface, Jerry. Those were the TAO depth/subsurface maps. Here's what's happening at 55m lately:

You can see that we lost some of the intense subsurface anomalies in mid-November but have regained some of the cold stuff. Region 1.2 is tanking so we'll see if that water spreads east or the gradual warming from Indonesia into the extreme western regions' subsurface has an effect.

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I don't think we had many -5/-6C anomalies at the surface, Jerry. Those were the TAO depth/subsurface maps. Here's what's happening at 55m lately:

You can see that we lost some of the intense subsurface anomalies in mid-November but have regained some of the cold stuff. Region 1.2 is tanking so we'll see if that water spreads east or the gradual warming from Indonesia into the extreme western regions' subsurface has an effect.

It's over Nate. Will stay close to this for awhile but it's peaked. Every trade push has underperformed since 11/1. Something is weird this year and I'm not sure what it is. All the things that "should" happen aren't.

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You gotta love Flood, he is human as well as an NCEP robot:

NOW THE 12Z/12 RUN OF THE ECMWF IS BACK ON

BOARD...DEVELOPING A MAJOR SNOWSTORM NEXT WEEKEND FROM INTERIOR NC

TO NEW ENG. IF CORRECT...IT COULD LAY DOWN A HEAVY BLANKET OF SNOW

IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE BIG SYS LAST YEAR...ALMOST TO THE DATE! A

WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THAT AREA 6 DAYS LATER WOULD BE HIGHLY FAVORED

IN THE PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN.

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You gotta love Flood, he is human as well as an NCEP robot:

NOW THE 12Z/12 RUN OF THE ECMWF IS BACK ON

BOARD...DEVELOPING A MAJOR SNOWSTORM NEXT WEEKEND FROM INTERIOR NC

TO NEW ENG. IF CORRECT...IT COULD LAY DOWN A HEAVY BLANKET OF SNOW

IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE BIG SYS LAST YEAR...ALMOST TO THE DATE! A

WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THAT AREA 6 DAYS LATER WOULD BE HIGHLY FAVORED

IN THE PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN.

Haha

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DT gave jan 1966 ass an analog for this storm.. I see a very strong resemblance. Same split flow pattern.. s/w coming through the southern stream... ULL over the GL with a s/w coming through the polar jet. The phasing doesn't look quite as explosive on the 12z Euro as that storm but it's very very similar.. could easily become something like that.

That storm was 6" from a line from NYC to HFD to BOS mostly less SE of there due to more rain... 12" in ORH.. 12" in the Berks and greens... 20-40" in western NY. Low cut up the Hudson Valley.

I think there's a very good chance that this could cut up the Hudson Valley and we mix in SNE, we will have to be careful of that. Of course the storm still might be OTS. We may still want to hope for some sort of 50/50 low which 1966 lacked (it had a bit of one but it moved out before the storm). On the other hand we have more blocking than 1966 so that could help

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DT gave jan 1966 ass an analog for this storm.. I see a very strong resemblance. Same split flow pattern.. s/w coming through the southern stream... ULL over the GL with a s/w coming through the polar jet. The phasing doesn't look quite as explosive on the 12z Euro as that storm but it's very very similar.. could easily become something like that.

That storm was 6" from a line from NYC to HFD to BOS mostly less SE of there due to more rain... 12" in ORH.. 12" in the Berks and greens... 20-40" in western NY. Low cut up the Hudson Valley.

I think there's a very good chance that this could cut up the Hudson Valley and we mix in SNE, we will have to be careful of that. Of course the storm still might be OTS. We may still want to hope for some sort of 50/50 low which 1966 lacked (it had a bit of one but it moved out before the storm). On the other hand we have more blocking than 1966 so that could help

I agree...that analog does look like that.

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