weatherMA Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This pretty much somes it up. In 3 days we'll have a better idea. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF TAKEN VERBATIM WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER STORM THAT IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER EAST BRINGING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WHICH REFLECTS THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. ALL IN ALL...THE MODELS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE STORM TRACK/INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. THEREFORE...ITS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL EVOLVE. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 It's awful..you don't need it to make a forecast unless you're into making wrong and busted ones and is there a reason they need to run the thing 4x a day. LOL run it 2x a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 and is there a reason they need to run the thing 4x a day. LOL run it 2x a day. So that can look at the obligatory 384hr HECS on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Well, glad to have the Euro on our side. Along way out but at least we have our next perturbation to fixate on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The question really will be whether the block can help us next time. If the block fails then the seasonal tendency will send this low right back to about Syracuse or Rochester. Hopefully we'll time things out better next weekend vis a vis the position of the blocking. BTW ..a week out the GFS was 'out to sea' with today's debacle. The Euro give me 4-6 followed by taint with sleet and then rain and then snow on the backside to seal the pack. I'm fine with that even if NYC gets 2 feet. I'm a NYer and always root for them. We'll have our chances. But the Euro at 12Z today at least gives me something vs yesterdays bomb that rode into Western NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Well, glad to have the Euro on our side. Along way out but at least we have our next perturbation to fixate on. Yup, it's good to see it out there. Nice that we'l have some antecedent cold setting up. That said, I'm going to do my best to just watch with mild interest for a while. No sense in getting excited yet. Has the front come through yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Well, glad to have the Euro on our side. Along way out but at least we have our next perturbation to fixate on. you'll get yours before that. 8" by weeks end at 2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The question really will be whether the block can help us next time. If the block fails then the seasonal tendency will send this low right back to about Syracuse or Rochester. Hopefully we'll time things out better next weekend vis a vis the position of the blocking. BTW ..a week out the GFS was 'out to sea' with today's debacle. logan don't go to the darkside ....not now Don s had a post that = bullish toward snow DT has his "woof" post on general forum page for this weekend's storm Will is bullish on track not being a cutter. relax it will come to you. enjoy the sn- the next few days. plus 0c 850's are only about 75 miles west of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Pats are a juggernaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Keep this southeast. This smells of a pattern that will bring the low back within like 4 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Keep this southeast. This smells of a pattern that will bring the low back within like 4 days or so. I meant to post the 18z. And I agree, this will come back towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Keep this southeast. This smells of a pattern that will bring the low back within like 4 days or so. LOL you think? I think this thing is more likely to not phase or completely miss than cut inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 LOL you think? I think this thing is more likely to not phase or completely miss than cut inside. I don't mean it's a lock, I mean that the pattern sort of has the phase kind of look...the kind that drives a storm due north. I would rather see it southeast for now. Edit: Perhaps I should say it has the phase potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I don't mean it's a lock, I mean that the pattern sort of has the phase kind of look...the kind that drives a storm due north. I would rather see it southeast for now. What I don't see it doing is cutting way west like this one is doing. I could see a storm that crushes ALB or Logan11 while the rest of us changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I know what date you like..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I know what date you like..lol. Which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Which one? 2003? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 2003? Since I don't know what the other analogs produced, you're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Since I don't know what the other analogs produced, you're correct. Lots of biggies within a couple of days of those dates including this one which gave us twenty or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 2003? Can I stuff the ballot box with that one? I'll even buy a ticket to DFW 2 days before and put a dummy that looks like me in the seat to make mother nature think its me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Can I stuff the ballot box with that one? I'll even buy a ticket to DFW 2 days before and put a dummy that looks like me in the seat to make mother nature think its me.... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Lots of biggies within a couple of days of those dates including this one which gave us twenty or so Nasty GOA low with high heights toward Aleutions....-PNA...that storm never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 will i know almost all eyes are on a D7 threat right now. but in the meantime do you see any shot for a vortex to rotate in from the SSE tommorrow like the nam showed on 2 of the last 4 runs? i mean just looking at the trough set up any shot for SN- to accumulate this early to mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nasty GOA low with high heights toward Aleutions....-PNA...that storm never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 A rarity for my Golden Retriever, she did her business and wanted no part of heavy rain.....rain back into the house. Usually she's impervious. Next storm will have some more meaningful frozen for many of us. Big spike upward in SSTA lately in the Nina regions. Last time it was below -1.5C was 11/28 at around -1.6. Latest daily has it sitting on -1.0 and seemingly rising. I'm calling this Nina past peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Remember when we had some -5 to -6 or lower here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Can I stuff the ballot box with that one? I'll even buy a ticket to DFW 2 days before and put a dummy that looks like me in the seat to make mother nature think its me.... LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Since I don't know what the other analogs produced, you're correct. I know you revere that storm, as you should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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