Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Is that related to the lower resoloution of the ensemble members... the mean of which is inherently going to be relatively unamplified. You could have asked that without adding those unneccessary Tippy words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Well it could also be right, I meant that ensembles are usually east of the op and yeah it might be grid size related. I know what you meant.....I was just looking for you to reaffirm my belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I know what you meant.....I was just looking for you to reaffirm my belief. The euro ensembles have a much better grid resolution which is why they usually perform better than the gfs ensembles. I forget the actual grid size, but it's pretty good for an ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 You could have asked that without adding those unneccessary Tippy words I was elaborating as to what exactly I believed a lower resoloution to entail....to make sure I had the right idea. Just learning a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The euro ensembles have a much better grid resolution which is why they usually perform better than the gfs ensembles. I forget the actual grid size, but it's pretty good for an ensemble. I'm sort of surprised the GFS and Euro ensembles are in such good agreement (with the mean solution). They look really close to one another for a 180 hour forecast. I'm guessing the Euro members are pretty close to the GFS ensembles... some flat with the PV crushing things south of here others way too wound up with a closed low SW of us drawing the storm up to Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm sort of surprised the GFS and Euro ensembles are in such good agreement. They look really close to one another for a 180 hour forecast In the 20th has been flagged for a while too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 In the 20th has been flagged for a while too. Yeah we've seen it showing up on and off. It has looked to me for a week now that our first legit shot would come on the 20th. We see what we need to get the storm up here (boot the PV west) but actually getting that to happen may not be easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 What storms are we discussing in this thread? The Wed/Thurs retrograde? Maybe a Saturday retrograde? Or are we looking out even further than that? It looks like a ripe pattern for upslope snows again all the way down into the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Nam is much more robust with the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 What storms are we discussing in this thread? The Wed/Thurs retrograde? Maybe a Saturday retrograde? Or are we looking out even further than that? It looks like a ripe pattern for upslope snows again all the way down into the Berkshires. Suprisingly.....those are tough to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I was elaborating as to what exactly I believed a lower resoloution to entail....to make sure I had the right idea. Just learning a bit. Do you know the resolution difference? Is it 10x? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Do you know the resolution difference? Is it 10x? Not sure, but I think the EC ense are quite a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Not sure, but I think the EC ense are quite a bit stronger. $$$ will get you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Suprisingly.....those are tough to come by. Haha... I know you guys think this isn't surprising, but the pattern is actually one of the better ones we've seen in years as far as upslope goes. A block close by with multiple retrograding systems from east to west across southern Canada doesn't occur too often. Its like when the Lake Effect guys see a nice pattern setting up... of course its not hard to get a response from orographic lift or lake effect, but some patterns just smack of it. We have nothing else really going on so its neat from a meso-scale standpoint. Its not often the Berkshires pick up warning criteria snow from upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 $$$ will get you that. I think the largest advantage that EMWF holds over it's gloabal counterparts is it's superior assimilization of data due to a more extensive initalization scheme; the higher resoloution is icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The Euro ensembles are actually southeast of last night...though not totally surprising given the time frame we are dealing with. We have about 72 more hours to get through before this threat starts to actually become more serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The euro ensembles have a much better grid resolution which is why they usually perform better than the gfs ensembles. I forget the actual grid size, but it's pretty good for an ensemble. T639 - actually better than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The Euro ensembles are actually southeast of last night...though not totally surprising given the time frame we are dealing with. We have about 72 more hours to get through before this threat starts to actually become more serious. The pressure field is so broad there's gotta be a ton of spread in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The pressure field is so broad there's gotta be a ton of spread in there. Im sure there is. I wish we could see the spread like we can on the SREFs...but at this time range, its probably not important, we know there's a large area this storm could cover. I think the good news is that there isn't a ton of room to the west, its mostly in the ideal spots or east due to the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Im sure there is. I wish we could see the spread like we can on the SREFs...but at this time range, its probably not important, we know there's a large area this storm could cover. I think the good news is that there isn't a ton of room to the west, its mostly in the ideal spots or east due to the block. The only way it rips west is if the closed low winds up way way far west. I don't think that's likely right now... more likely is a closed low too close to us to push this thing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ahh...Chicago looks really nice right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Im sure there is. I wish we could see the spread like we can on the SREFs...but at this time range, its probably not important, we know there's a large area this storm could cover. I think the good news is that there isn't a ton of room to the west, its mostly in the ideal spots or east due to the block. yeah that's probably true. i think the only adjustment west (assuming guidance is completely off with the entire 5h pattern) is something closer to yesterdays' run...i.e...that ULL is in such a fashion that it hooks it left too early. otherwise, you have to think over or east of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 yeah that's probably true. i think the only adjustment west (assuming guidance is completely off with the entire 5h pattern) is something closer to yesterdays' run...i.e...that ULL is in such a fashion that it hooks it left too early. otherwise, you have to think over or east of NE. There's one GFS ensemble member that really screws us and tugs the thing inland but I think odds definitely favor something offshore more than they do something pulled too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 There's one GFS ensemble member that really screws us and tugs the thing inland but I think odds definitely favor something offshore more than they do something pulled too far west. That should make Ray feel a little better...especially since that is coming from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 That should make Ray feel a little better...especially since that is coming from you Not really....I know this isn't a lakes cutter of HV runner, but I think odds are toward the western end of the envelope, which would still screw me. If the ens mean is still east like this at 00z Wednesday, then maybe I'll feel a bit better. This isn't like the current event, which I new would be west last Saturday at the gtg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Not really....I know this isn't a lakes cutter of HV runner, but I think odds are toward the western end of the envelope, which would still screw me. If the ens mean is still east like this at 00z Wednesday, then maybe I'll feel a bit better. This isn't like the current event, which I new would be west last Saturday at the gtg. who knows the 500mb pattern could definitely wind up pulling this damn thing up the DE Bay and give us all rain. Odds favor it farther east though. High risk, high reward IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 who knows the 500mb pattern could definitely wind up pulling this damn thing up the DE Bay and give us all rain. Odds favor it farther east though. High risk, high reward IMO Can't rule anything out at this range, but an inland runner is far less plausible than it was with respect to this garbage. I'd rather that, btw; anything other than this 12z depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Can't rule anything out at this range, but an inland runner is far less plausible than it was with respect to this garbage. I'd rather that, btw; anything other than this 12z depiction. Well even the 12z run you get a solid thump of snow before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Well even the 12z run you get a solid thump of snow before rain. Understood.... but after last season, I'm understandably all set with 3-5" of slush, while the rest of you see 1-2'. Call me a baby....I'd rather endure that criticism than that particular soloution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Understood.... but after last season, I'm understandably all set with 3-5" of slush, while the rest of you see 1-2'. Call me a baby....I'd rather endure that criticism than that particular soloution. lol well I had a worse winter than you so I think it's my time to cash in. Maybe you'll have to wait til 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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