Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 WOW.. Snowmageddon on the Euro. This looks just like Blizzard of 1888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 pete would be measuring in feet(?) perhaps...as well as a good chunk of NNE in all likelihood if it doesn't turn to a sleet fest. This will make me very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 WOW.. Snowmageddon on the Euro. This looks just like Blizzard of 1888 Not at all... and believe it or not you're close to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 12-20 for me and Will while Ray rains...lock it please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 right ....talk about a delusional pessimistic view....... on the other hand perhaps pete went into heavy heavy hibernation as 4 inches of rain destroys the snowpack .... I'm delusional....ok, dude.....I won't make another comment regarding this potential until I'm vindicated....as I have been all year. You are one of the most delusional weenies on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 12-20 for me and Will while Ray rains...lock it please you're close...dont jinx yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 12-20 for me and Will while Ray rains...lock it please lol Yeah Will and Scooter flip to rain... I stay all snow and you and will come close to pingers. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I wonder how many people in MSP are viewing this and saying it's going to trend way west. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Tell him Chris.. The old scrooge of Wilmington. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 lol Yeah Will and Scooter flip to rain... I stay all snow and you and will come close to pingers. Beautiful. Ryan, do you have an answer to my question above? about the storm last year that gave NYC snow and us rain? I was wondering what, if anything the models were depicting a week out from that. I know there's no correlation, but it's just out of curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 lol Yeah Will and Scooter flip to rain... I stay all snow and you and will come close to pingers. Beautiful. It doesn't look like I change to rain on the Euro...the highest 850 temps i see are like -4 for ORH...runs from an ORH to TOL line it looks like at 174h. Though there is certainly a tight gradient to the east. Not that any of this matters at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 It is spiting zucker ... or rewarding his pessimism. Maybe I should try it. Low goes right over me This is pretty much my dream run, another Snowicane basically where I pound out 20" and BOS goes to rain Seriously though, 5H looks way better so I'm starting to take interest. Would like more amplification of the western ridge but block looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 It doesn't look like I change to rain on the Euro...the highest 850 temps i see are like -4 for ORH...runs from an ORH to TOL line it looks like at 174h. Though there is certainly a tight gradient to the east. Not that any of this matters at this time range. Oops i meant ray. You should be all snow... Pingers come close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This is pretty much my dream run, another Snowicane basically where I pound out 20" and BOS goes to rain Seriously though, 5H looks way better so I'm starting to take interest. Would like more amplification of the western ridge but block looks good. Dude, there's a huge GOA low...storm can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The one day I would really prefer it not to snow much is Dec. 19... Watch us get nailed that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Off-topic, but maybe we will see this from that storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Dude, there's a huge GOA low...storm can't happen. LOL Will. Snowicane #2 baby...970mb over Montauk is where I like 'em. HEAVY HEAVY snow for Dobbs Ferry. In all seriousness, we may have a beneficial split flow developing in the PJ despite GoA low. We saw this type of pattern in January 1966 as DT pointed out, which was an hellacious storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 LOL Will. Snowicane #2 baby...970mb over Montauk is where I like 'em. HEAVY HEAVY snow for Dobbs Ferry. In all seriousness, we may have a beneficial split flow developing in the PJ despite GoA low. We saw this type of pattern in January 1966 as DT pointed out, which was an hellacious storm. Until there is an entire reshuffle of the PAC and the maritime air stops retrograding in from the Atlantic, there will be no snow threats. Any time you have a -PNA, you can't get a snow event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Until there is an entire reshuffle of the PAC and the maritime air stops retrograding in from the Atlantic, there will be no snow threats. Any time you have a -PNA, you can't get a snow event here. You're a mean one, Mister Grinch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This is pretty much my dream run, another Snowicane basically where I pound out 20" and BOS goes to rain Seriously though, 5H looks way better so I'm starting to take interest. Would like more amplification of the western ridge but block looks good. Not to troll you too hard.. but the general 5H pattern is identical to what it was yesterday when you said this storm looked impossible. massive GOA low -pna 500mb low over the GL baffin block two s/w rotating around th GL low (one from the southwest one from the PJ) the only thing that has changed really is a slight tweak in the deterministic solution Not surprising to those like Will (and I) who have been hammering the 19-20th timeframe for several days now based on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Now if we can just get some run-to-run/model consistency of that ULL placement in the LR. I'm finally feeling a bit hopeful despite the 43F and rain out my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Now if we can just get some run-to-run/model consistency of that ULL placement in the LR. I'm finally feeling a bit hopeful despite the 43F and rain out my window. Yeah that will determine just how far west or east this tracks...it will be almost impossible to make that a lakes cutter given the block in place, but it could still do a sharp left hook up the Hudson or something that we would need to be aware of. Thankfully, the slot with the most likely solutions would be favorable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 WOW.. Snowmageddon on the Euro. This looks just like Blizzard of 1888 kev could we get back to talking about snow for this week. what does the rev have to say about ULL potential tue-thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 ray could we get back to talking about snow for this week. what does the rev have to say about ULL potential tue-thru Still looks like some snow Wed/wed nite 1-2 maybe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Not to troll you too hard.. but the general 5H pattern is identical to what it was yesterday when you said this storm looked impossible. massive GOA low -pna 500mb low over the GL baffin block two s/w rotating around th GL low (one from the southwest one from the PJ) the only thing that has changed really is a slight tweak in the deterministic solution Not surprising to those like Will (and I) who have been hammering the 19-20th timeframe for several days now based on the ensembles. I'm not too accustomed to seeing a NYC blizzard with a 5H closed low over the Lakes and a strong GoA low, don't know how many analogs there are for this type of situation producing a major east-coast snowstorm. That's why I said the weenie solution looks impossible. I still think it's pretty unlikely to get a Snowicane type storm in a strong La Niña with the current PAC configuration....not sure if the southern energy will be as strong as progged or the split flow out west will hold up well with that tremendous GoA low. People are getting excited a bit too early; sure, the pattern looks pretty interesting, but we are talking about a storm at 174 hours here. I was kidding around a bit when I said it's my dream run since I know it's highly unlikely to verify at 975mb over LI. Who knows though, ECM has been on a roll and the blocking is off the charts with a 1080mb ridge over Greenland shifting towards Baffin Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Dude, there's a huge GOA low...storm can't happen. Until there is an entire reshuffle of the PAC and the maritime air stops retrograding in from the Atlantic, there will be no snow threats. Any time you have a -PNA, you can't get a snow event here. :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 LOL Well the euro ensembles are still pretty far east, but that's to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 LOL Well the euro ensembles are still pretty far east, but that's to be expected. Is that related to the lower resoloution of the ensemble members... the mean of which is inherently going to be relatively unamplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Is that related to the lower resoloution of the ensemble members... Well it could also be right, I meant that ensembles are usually east of the op and yeah it might be grid size related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 LOL Well the euro ensembles are still pretty far east, but that's to be expected. Just look at 500mb the GFS and Euro are worlds apart. At least we know how we can get a storm... it's just a matter of getting the UA pattern to work out in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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