Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion


TalcottWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

right ....talk about a delusional pessimistic view.......

on the other hand perhaps pete went into heavy heavy hibernation as 4 inches of rain destroys the snowpack ....

I'm delusional....ok, dude.....I won't make another comment regarding this potential until I'm vindicated....as I have been all year.

You are one of the most delusional weenies on here. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol

Yeah Will and Scooter flip to rain... I stay all snow and you and will come close to pingers.

Beautiful.

Ryan, do you have an answer to my question above? about the storm last year that gave NYC snow and us rain? I was wondering what, if anything the models were depicting a week out from that. I know there's no correlation, but it's just out of curiosity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol

Yeah Will and Scooter flip to rain... I stay all snow and you and will come close to pingers.

Beautiful.

It doesn't look like I change to rain on the Euro...the highest 850 temps i see are like -4 for ORH...runs from an ORH to TOL line it looks like at 174h. Though there is certainly a tight gradient to the east. Not that any of this matters at this time range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is spiting zucker laugh.gif

... or rewarding his pessimism. Maybe I should try it. Low goes right over me

This is pretty much my dream run, another Snowicane basically where I pound out 20" and BOS goes to rain scooter.gif

Seriously though, 5H looks way better so I'm starting to take interest. Would like more amplification of the western ridge but block looks good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It doesn't look like I change to rain on the Euro...the highest 850 temps i see are like -4 for ORH...runs from an ORH to TOL line it looks like at 174h. Though there is certainly a tight gradient to the east. Not that any of this matters at this time range.

Oops i meant ray. You should be all snow... Pingers come close though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is pretty much my dream run, another Snowicane basically where I pound out 20" and BOS goes to rain scooter.gif

Seriously though, 5H looks way better so I'm starting to take interest. Would like more amplification of the western ridge but block looks good.

Dude, there's a huge GOA low...storm can't happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dude, there's a huge GOA low...storm can't happen.

LOL Will. Snowicane #2 baby...970mb over Montauk is where I like 'em. HEAVY HEAVY snow for Dobbs Ferry.

In all seriousness, we may have a beneficial split flow developing in the PJ despite GoA low. We saw this type of pattern in January 1966 as DT pointed out, which was an hellacious storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL Will. Snowicane #2 baby...970mb over Montauk is where I like 'em. HEAVY HEAVY snow for Dobbs Ferry.

In all seriousness, we may have a beneficial split flow developing in the PJ despite GoA low. We saw this type of pattern in January 1966 as DT pointed out, which was an hellacious storm.

Until there is an entire reshuffle of the PAC and the maritime air stops retrograding in from the Atlantic, there will be no snow threats. Any time you have a -PNA, you can't get a snow event here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is pretty much my dream run, another Snowicane basically where I pound out 20" and BOS goes to rain scooter.gif

Seriously though, 5H looks way better so I'm starting to take interest. Would like more amplification of the western ridge but block looks good.

Not to troll you too hard.. but the general 5H pattern is identical to what it was yesterday when you said this storm looked impossible.

massive GOA low

-pna

500mb low over the GL

baffin block

two s/w rotating around th GL low (one from the southwest one from the PJ)

the only thing that has changed really is a slight tweak in the deterministic solution

Not surprising to those like Will (and I) who have been hammering the 19-20th timeframe for several days now based on the ensembles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now if we can just get some run-to-run/model consistency of that ULL placement in the LR. I'm finally feeling a bit hopeful despite the 43F and rain out my window.

Yeah that will determine just how far west or east this tracks...it will be almost impossible to make that a lakes cutter given the block in place, but it could still do a sharp left hook up the Hudson or something that we would need to be aware of. Thankfully, the slot with the most likely solutions would be favorable for us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to troll you too hard.. but the general 5H pattern is identical to what it was yesterday when you said this storm looked impossible.

massive GOA low

-pna

500mb low over the GL

baffin block

two s/w rotating around th GL low (one from the southwest one from the PJ)

the only thing that has changed really is a slight tweak in the deterministic solution

Not surprising to those like Will (and I) who have been hammering the 19-20th timeframe for several days now based on the ensembles.

I'm not too accustomed to seeing a NYC blizzard with a 5H closed low over the Lakes and a strong GoA low, don't know how many analogs there are for this type of situation producing a major east-coast snowstorm. That's why I said the weenie solution looks impossible. I still think it's pretty unlikely to get a Snowicane type storm in a strong La Niña with the current PAC configuration....not sure if the southern energy will be as strong as progged or the split flow out west will hold up well with that tremendous GoA low. People are getting excited a bit too early; sure, the pattern looks pretty interesting, but we are talking about a storm at 174 hours here. I was kidding around a bit when I said it's my dream run since I know it's highly unlikely to verify at 975mb over LI. Who knows though, ECM has been on a roll and the blocking is off the charts with a 1080mb ridge over Greenland shifting towards Baffin Island.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...