Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Thankfully this is a week out because I'd take a break is this came to pass. well you'd get some snow at the onset. problem for SNE is (aside from the fact that the low bisects the region) is once again this set-up has zero HP north of the region so it would be one of those ugly cases where we'd have a hard time holding in any cold outside of the mountains with just a screaming ESE flow whatever...day 7+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 well you'd get some snow at the onset. problem for SNE is (aside from the fact that the low bisects the region) is once again this set-up has zero HP north of the region so it would be one of those ugly cases where we'd have a hard time holding in any cold outside of the mountains with just a screaming ESE flow whatever...day 7+. Should something like this comes to pass, it would vault this year ahead of any other on the "f*** no" list....I mean, I'd rather relive a 1988 type of year....man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 well you'd get some snow at the onset. problem for SNE is (aside from the fact that the low bisects the region) is once again this set-up has zero HP north of the region so it would be one of those ugly cases where we'd have a hard time holding in any cold outside of the mountains with just a screaming ESE flow whatever...day 7+. Yeah, and you could see it coming a mile a way. Like you said.it's d7, but a very volatile pattern. That ULL pulling north of us this week allows for the mega low to form off the se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I wouldn't be shocked at all given the pattern. that's definitely a realistic fear. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Well, if Lee signs w TX, they can have the friggin blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 that's definitely a realistic fear. LOL. But it sure is an amazing block!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 wow, you guys gotta see the 12z ECMWF! the NAO is on the move, the NAO IS ON THE MOVE.... HOLY CRAP what run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'll take the Euro verbatim please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Let's not get aggravated at a D7+ Euro depiction now...this thread needs better vibes. We'll see where the Euro ensembles end up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yeah, and you could see it coming a mile a way. Like you said.it's d7, but a very volatile pattern. That ULL pulling north of us this week allows for the mega low to form off the se coast. yeah once that thing started rolling toward lake superior you knew that gyre would pull it N then NW like that...it actually ends up bending all the way to canada from BOS. too many well-developed ULLs in the wrong places in this overall pattern right now. given the set-up, i could just as easily see the next run being a complete whiff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 wow, you guys gotta see the 12z ECMWF! the NAO is on the move, the NAO IS ON THE MOVE.... HOLY CRAP what run i've never heard of this ecmwf you speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Let's not get aggravated at a D7+ Euro depiction now...this thread needs better vibes. We'll see where the Euro ensembles end up later. It's either what is expected, or it will be terrible news.....they should be east and NBD if they are, but if they are west, then my area should start tipping chairs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Regarding WED...the EURO had something for many runs and then lost it at 12z today just as all the other models were starting to catch onto something? That sounds about right. The EURO is such a buzz kill, but it's usually more right than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Hopefully next run is a no-show because if this storm comes to pass, it prob isn't likely to trend east much. I wish this season would act like a strong Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Hopefully next run is a no-show because if this storm comes to pass, it prob isn't likely to trend east much. a lot of us would take this run verbatim right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 LOL d10 has another bomb offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 too bad a lot of us would take this run verbatim right now. Too bad it's 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Too bad it's 7 days out. the threats are there, the setup is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 yeah once that thing started rolling toward lake superior you knew that gyre would pull it N then NW like that...it actually ends up bending all the way to canada from BOS. too many well-developed ULLs in the wrong places in this overall pattern right now. given the set-up, i could just as easily see the next run being a complete whiff too. agreed. this run is just showing you one possibility for that timeframe. The timing of the shortwaves is going to change, as well as the interaction of that souther stream SW with the great lakes low.. yadda yadda yadda. It does suck to see the 500 low to our north either in a position to suppress or so far west to allow storms to cut. We need a thread the needle solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 the threats are there, the setup is there. In the spirit of Christmas, this will be a snowstorm. You heard it here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 a lot of us would take this run verbatim right now. yeah it's definitely good out your way. it's pointless to get down into the details given the time frame but it would be a very good storm for Western NE and probably parts of C NE. just looked closer at the low track and looks like it goes from just just east of the tip of long island to around newport/fall river area to just east of bos. so if you hold that track for the next 7 days...you're golden. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 the threats are there, the setup is there. This has yet another chapter of "2010" written all over it for me and frankly, I'd rather it not be written.....anyway, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 so if you hold that track for the next 7 days...you're golden. LOL. well that's basically bound to happen so why worry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Your killing me today ray Time to step away from the computer and watch some football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Let's not get aggravated at a D7+ Euro depiction now...this thread needs better vibes. We'll see where the Euro ensembles end up later. right ....talk about a delusional pessimistic view....... on the other hand perhaps pete went into heavy heavy hibernation as 4 inches of rain destroys the snowpack .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 the threats are there, the setup is there. Tell him Chris.. The old scrooge of Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Does anyone know what the models looked like a week out on that storm last year that gave NYC a ton of snow and left areas east of the CT/NY, NY/MA, and NY/VT borders rainy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Tell him Chris.. The old scrooge of Wilmington. pete what's your temp you must repent ...lest the heavens open upeth and the cupeth runeth over ye snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 right ....talk about a delusional pessimistic view....... on the other hand perhaps pete went into heavy heavy hibernation as 4 inches of rain destroys the snowpack .... It's taking a beating but it's not losing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 pete what's your temp you must repent ...lest the heavens open upeth and the cupeth runeth over ye snowpack 39.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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