The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

[weatherwiz]

It definitely looks like we'll have at least a couple chances with retrograding vortmaxima to drop some snow on the region.

Some of the better upslopping areas could cash in fairly well this week.

[ORH_wxman]

Some of the better upslopping areas could cash in fairly well this week.

The upslope areas should rake it in....good thing too after this ugly rain storm, they can make up for the damage.

I could see the rest of the region having a couple of shots at a 1-3" type deal. Those rotating vortmax around a ULL are always tough to forecast. I've seen them drop 4 or 5 inches of snow before when little was modeled/predicted and I've seen just a flurry or two from them when it looked like we might get an inch or tow. One of those things we'll just have to wait as we get closer, but there's several spokes of energy that rotate around so we'll have a few chance to see if we can get an area of blossoming light snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

if it's any interest to you, the NAM is currently 2-5F warm biased throughout the obs right now.

It's 23F here in Ayer. 37F in Boston and 4C (39.2) and climbing on the 00z run. Their DP is 29, but I imagine the sounding is not that deep with dry air, so the wet-bulb must be 35 and change (may be useful to check that depth). Still, in the interior ( and there are FR R advisories now in southern CT) I suspect there will be a brief snow and than a couple 3 hours of icing to contend with. Also, noting the lack of cloud with starlit radiational cooling underway, with p wall encroaching from the S of LI and cloud deck, cold "capping" a concern prior to the llv jet burst later on.

Also, agree with Will; there is an ANA type signal here with now QPF of nearing .2" in snow now at the other end of this.

[CT Rain]

The upslope areas should rake it in....good thing too after this ugly rain storm, they can make up for the damage.

I could see the rest of the region having a couple of shots at a 1-3" type deal. Those rotating vortmax around a ULL are always tough to forecast. I've seen them drop 4 or 5 inches of snow before when little was modeled/predicted and I've seen just a flurry or two from them when it looked like we might get an inch or tow. One of those things we'll just have to wait as we get closer, but there's several spokes of energy that rotate around so we'll have a few chance to see if we can get an area of blossoming light snow.

I agree. I sort of like Wednesday afternoon for some snow... we'll see what we can squeeze out.

[CT Rain]

if it's any interest to you, the NAM is currently 2-5F warm biased throughout the obs right now.

It's 23F here in Ayer. 37F in Boston and 4C (39.2) and climbing on the 00z. There DP is 29, but I imagine the sounding is not that deep with dry air, so the wet-bulb must be 35 and change (may be useful to check that depth). Still, in the interior ( and there are FR R advisories now in southern CT) I suspect there will be a brief snow and than a couple 3 hours of icing to contend with. Also, noting the lack of cloud with starlit radiational cooling underway, with p wall encroaching from the S of LI and cloud deck, cold "capping" a concern prior to the llv jet burst later on.

Also, agree with Will; there is an ANA type signal here with now QPF of nearing .2" in snow now at the other end of this.

I'm at 26 here in West Hartford... 00z NAM didn't have me below freezing lol.

Once winds kick up we should start some turbulent mixing and mix some warmer air from aloft down.

[weatherwiz]

The upslope areas should rake it in....good thing too after this ugly rain storm, they can make up for the damage.

I could see the rest of the region having a couple of shots at a 1-3" type deal. Those rotating vortmax around a ULL are always tough to forecast. I've seen them drop 4 or 5 inches of snow before when little was modeled/predicted and I've seen just a flurry or two from them when it looked like we might get an inch or tow. One of those things we'll just have to wait as we get closer, but there's several spokes of energy that rotate around so we'll have a few chance to see if we can get an area of blossoming light snow.

This definitely will be interesting to watch over the next few days, I at least like how juicy it looks at H7 throughout the week so it doesn't appear as if decent moisture will be lacking. GFS also looks like it showed some hints of a possible inverted trough setting up across parts of eastern MA...this could be something that could enhance moisture influx but it looked like a really weak signal.

These are one of my favorite setups to have in the summer!

[Typhoon Tip]

Icing is weird in that these seem to best come on when they so-so look good, but then over-perform; unless '08 when the signal is ignored -

Anyway, if some interesting glazing takes place - say warning criteria - it wasn't under the radar.

[Mr Torchey]

Icing is weird in that these seem to best come on when they so-so look good, but then over-perform; unless '08 when the signal is ignored -

Anyway, if some interesting glazing takes place - say warning criteria - it wasn't under the radar.

Tip you had the N flow from day one.

[NorEastermass128]

It is 24F right now and it is going to be raining in less than 8 hours. Crap.

[weatherwiz]

Boundary between the wind shift/warmer temps and the colder temps appears to be right around the vicinity of Long Island. Looks like a decent amount of low level frontogenesis (850-700mb) going on with a bit of moisture convergence...maybe this could explain the nice heavy area of precip that blossomed in that area?

[Ginx snewx]

Boundary between the wind shift/warmer temps and the colder temps appears to be right around the vicinity of Long Island. Looks like a decent amount of low level frontogenesis (850-700mb) going on with a bit of moisture convergence...maybe this could explain the nice heavy area of precip that blossomed in that area?

You got ur threads mixed up,

[weatherwiz]

You got ur threads mixed up,

Son of a biscuit. I knew that was going to happen eventually.

[Ginx snewx]

Hmm Euro has LP in Boston Harbor day two with anafrontal precip.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like Wed night into Thursday has thebest chance of retrograde snows on the Euro.

[Ginx snewx]

Looks like Wed night into Thursday has thebest chance of retrograde snows on the Euro.

Looks juicy?

[weatherwiz]

Really dumb question and once I get the answer I think I'll get I may just go to bed...being up for 24 hours is long enough.

If I'm finding the average for something from 1950-2009...does that count as 60 years or 59 years? Do I divide by 60 or 59?

Can't believe I had to ask that but I'm too tired to think straight :/

[weatherwiz]

Looks like Wed night into Thursday has thebest chance of retrograde snows on the Euro.

I thinked the GFS liked that time period as well.

[Ginx snewx]

Really dumb question and once I get the answer I think I'll get I may just go to bed...being up for 24 hours is long enough.

If I'm finding the average for something from 1950-2009...does that count as 60 years or 59 years? Do I divide by 60 or 59?

Can't believe I had to ask that but I'm too tired to think straight :/

If you include 50 and 69 it's 70 years

[ORH_wxman]

Looks juicy?

Its not a lot of qpf verbatim, but like 1-2" of snow. The vortmax coming down from maine is pretty potent, so it wouldn't shock me if we saw it come in a little juicier as we get closer all things being equal.

[Ginx snewx]

Its not a lot of qpf verbatim, but like 1-2" of snow. The vortmax coming down from maine is pretty potent, so it wouldn't shock me if we saw it come in a little juicier as we get closer all things being equal.

Thanks

[weatherwiz]

If you include 50 and 69 it's 70 years

Oh man, I was totally off...Thank God I did this in pencil at least.

[Ginx snewx]

Its not a lot of qpf verbatim, but like 1-2" of snow. The vortmax coming down from maine is pretty potent, so it wouldn't shock me if we saw it come in a little juicier as we get closer all things being equal.

Speaking of vortexes hmmmm..........

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks quite active post-D7....hopefully we don't get screwed by too much suppression or some other way. It gives us another small event around 180h...but it could be quite larger looking at the upper air...see DT's latest post in his main thread on the wx side.

Then it has what looks like a huge east coast storm coming out of the southeast at D10...maybe we can finally open the floodgates for snow events.

[CoastalWx]

What are you thinking for next week?

Couple (1-4") for midweek...most NE MASS.

Heavy, heavy snow for the weekend (4"+)

6" Woburn. 3" Wilmington.

[CoastalWx]

I continue to like the model solutions coming up. The euro ensembles actually have a low se of the BM at hr 204.

[WeatherX]

I continue to like the model solutions coming up. The euro ensembles actually have a low se of the BM at hr 204.

[Damage In Tolland]

I see the Euro drops a couple inches again with te retro as we thought

Change to snow tomorrow to. Hopefully gets cold enough to drop some light accums

Fun week ahead

[OSUmetstud]

I continue to like the model solutions coming up. The euro ensembles actually have a low se of the BM at hr 204.

That's pretty damn strong for an ensemble solution.

[Damage In Tolland]

The upslope areas should rake it in....good thing too after this ugly rain storm, they can make up for the damage.

I could see the rest of the region having a couple of shots at a 1-3" type deal. Those rotating vortmax around a ULL are always tough to forecast. I've seen them drop 4 or 5 inches of snow before when little was modeled/predicted and I've seen just a flurry or two from them when it looked like we might get an inch or tow. One of those things we'll just have to wait as we get closer, but there's several spokes of energy that rotate around so we'll have a few chance to see if we can get an area of blossoming light snow.

Yeah all of SNE should be snowcovred by Wed or Thurs.. I'm excited for this week

[Damage In Tolland]

Its not a lot of qpf verbatim, but like 1-2" of snow. The vortmax coming down from maine is pretty potent, so it wouldn't shock me if we saw it come in a little juicier as we get closer all things being equal.

As we thought