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The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

TalcottWx

By TalcottWx,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Jerry, what would I do without you and Ginxy. I enjoy participating here very much but lately the constant drone of pessimism has been fatigueing. I have not for a second had a crisis of faith that this Winter would be a snowy one. More snow on the way. Time to get off the schnide.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Dude, this does nothing to refute my statements; so NO, Ski' it doesn't 'OUCH' at all!

The questiion is differentiating NAO, not the -NAO its self. Not sure why that is not registering with you. This product does nothing to represent the differentiating NAO.

Sure the storm might have taken place with a negative NAO, but was it static while that took place? That's the question at hand, not whether it can snow at all, but where is the better probability.

This is not too disimilar to the Archembault science, conceptual as to why it works with the PNA as well.

I mean, you just went through a period of intense -NAO and it didn't snow - gee I wonder why. My Met degree is valid, dude - I understand the principles behind my discussion. I am not making this up as I go along. The foundemental cause of less snowing in a suppressive -NAO static mode is because there is less large synoptic scale mixing of air masses - that is as basic as it gets, and as simply as one can put it.

Anyway, here is to some transition flakes in the morning.

Well perhaps we can say it is a very good thing to have a -NAO, but that what we need is for it to come and go in order to realize the most benefit. In that way both of you are right.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Jerry, what would I do without you and Ginxy. I enjoy participating here very much but lately the constant drone of pessimism has been fatigueing. I have not for a second had a crisis of faith that this Winter would be a snowy one. More snow on the way. Time to get off the schnide.

I occassionally cross to the pessimistic dark side but not for long...I have a positive outlook on life and also believe this will be a good snowy winter. If we step back from all mishagosh of the model swings, we are stepping down nicely...and we will get there. Whenever the weather sucks, I just visit some of the local farmers we have befriended since we moved here, sit and chat about the challenges of making a living off of the land, talk about the weather, help them do some work. Today one of our friends told us to go down to the back of his 100 acre property and cut a xmas tree....he planted some a few years back but could never get the business going. As we walked across these beautiful frozen fields past the apple and peach orchards I appreciated the beauty of New England, the best place to live in this country if not the world. I imagined how cool it would be to stand in this field during a snow storm. I was thankful there was no deep snow to prevent us from getting to the tree and I just appreciated everything about that moment.

I thought about our friends coming up in two weeks from Philly, with their kids. They are demanding that we have snow. LOL...I told them not to worry. (I may have to sent them your way Pete). Then I thought, well if there's no snow I'll just drive an hour north and there it will be.

Isn't that what this whole weather thing is all about? Just appreciating the beauty of the moments we get. No sense is getting upset...just enjoy.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

I occassionally cross to the pessimistic dark side but not for long...I have a positive outlook on life and also believe this will be a good snowy winter. If we step back from all mishagosh of the model swings, we are stepping down nicely...and we will get there. Whenever the weather sucks, I just visit some of the local farmers we have befriended since we moved here, sit and chat about the challenges of making a living off of the land, talk about the weather, help them do some work. Today one of our friends told us to go down to the back of his 100 acre property and cut a xmas tree....he planted some a few years back but could never get the business going. As we walked across these beautiful frozen fields past the apple and peach orchards I appreciated the beauty of New England, the best place to live in this country if not the world. I imagined how cool it would be to stand in this field during a snow storm. I was thankful there was no deep snow to prevent us from getting to the tree and I just appreciated everything about that moment.

I thought about our friends coming up in two weeks from Philly, with their kids. They are demanding that we have snow. LOL...I told them not to worry. (I may have to sent them your way Pete). Then I thought, well if there's no snow I'll just drive an hour north and there it will be.

Isn't that what this whole weather thing is all about? Just appreciating the beauty of the moments we get. No sense is getting upset...just enjoy.

You had me right up until "I was thankful there was no deep snow..." Snow on the way never fear.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Enjoy your bare ground. It will be gone by next weekend. Big winter still on the way...and just for Nate.....GOA.....despite the vortex. I know things.

Good days ahead. Look at the big picture folks. We have a great setup but the team's in a snow slump. Like all good teams, we'll break out.

Jerry, 90% of the GoA is below average and the entire Pacific regime blows chunks for us to get snow. There's also a 980mb low moving into the GoA today dragging a cold front through the Anchorage area which is going to cool down any warm bubbles of SSTs that have developed right near the coast. Mark my words, the map will look somewhat different in a couple weeks as this low stalls out over the area for a while:

One thing you know is that you're going to be staring at bare ground for a while. With Boston probably having little measurable snow by 12/20, forecasts for a 70" season are already in serious jeopardy especially when you consider Niña climo in February, historically our snowiest month. I really don't see anything to get excited about with an ULL sitting over us for the next 7 days with more cold/dry conditions.

My third winter up here and a -NAO has been ****e. I'm just saying...SWFEs for the win every time. Haven't had a Miller B bomb up here yet I'm sure that'll be fun when it happens.

I think the overly aggressive NAO is part of the problem for New England. You guys don't need insane blocking, especially up there, because your climo is for a snowy winter anyway. No reason to play around with climo by having all sorts of unusual 5SD blocks, retrograding storms, historic NAO etc. You just want to keep the storms moving in and have a normal NNE winter.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Jerry, 90% of the GoA is below average and the entire Pacific regime blows chunks for us to get snow. There's also a 980mb low moving into the GoA today dragging a cold front through the Anchorage area which is going to cool down any warm bubbles of SSTs that have developed right near the coast. Mark my words, the map will look somewhat different in a couple weeks as this low stalls out over the area for a while:

One thing you know is that you're going to be staring at bare ground for a while. With Boston probably having little measurable snow by 12/20, forecasts for a 70" season are already in serious jeopardy especially when you consider Niña climo in February, historically our snowiest month. I really don't see anything to get excited about with an ULL sitting over us for the next 7 days with more cold/dry conditions.

I think the overly aggressive NAO is part of the problem for New England. You guys don't need insane blocking, especially up there, because your climo is for a snowy winter anyway. No reason to play around with climo by having all sorts of unusual 5SD blocks, retrograding storms, historic NAO etc. You just want to keep the storms moving in and have a normal NNE winter.

You're a smart young man with no knowledge of our climate. You will be wrong on the bold and if not, I will acknowledge. BTW...one year with not measurable prior to 12/15 was 1993. 96 inches later at BOS.....

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