The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

[CoastalWx]

The other good thing, is that ensembles build the Aleutian ridge again after trying to lose it. That may be a good thing as it tries to tip some cold into Canada, as the block weakens.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The other good thing, is that ensembles build the Aleutian ridge again after trying to lose it. That may be a good thing as it tries to tip some cold into Canada, as the block weakens.

rope? chairs?

[Tropopause_Fold]

That's dam impressive.

yeah it's probably overdone but it's been there every run for the last few days....slowly getting closer to t=0

[Mr Torchey]

The other good thing, is that ensembles build the Aleutian ridge again after trying to lose it. That may be a good thing as it tries to tip some cold into Canada, as the block weakens.

Well I am convinced after the last two days of modeling, as a good friend said to me earlier today, this looks like an epic pattern the next couple weeks. Does not get much better for mid december around these parts.

[DomNH]

Well I am convinced after the last two days of modeling, as a good friend said to me earlier today, this looks like an epic pattern the next couple weeks. Does not get much better for mid december around these parts.

At least someone isn't getting ready to douse themselves in lighter fluid and strike the match.

[Mr Torchey]

At least someone isn't getting ready to douse themselves in lighter fluid and strike the match.

LOL it might no be my location but somebody in new england is going to have a lot of fun the next few weeks

[WeatherX]

Well I am convinced after the last two days of modeling, as a good friend said to me earlier today, this looks like an epic pattern the next couple weeks. Does not get much better for mid december around these parts.

Hi

[Ginx snewx]

Look Tip is wrong about delta NAO and the research proves it. This is a graph showing the percentile increase in snow depth for selected cities using data from individual days for 52 winters. Clearly more southern regions benefit because of their normal marginal temps but obviously the data shows even Boston reaps more snow in a NEG NAO environment. Tip put that Science to bed my man.

During the 52 extended winter a total of 6305 days were examined. The positive phase of the NAO occurred in 2993 of the days and the negative phase of the NAO occurred in 3312 of the days. Also, the 1 standard deviation (SD) level was examined and there was a total of 2059 days in this category. It showed that 855 days exceeded the positive 1 SD level (NAO > 166 m) and 1204 days were more extreme than the negative 1 SD level (NAO < -166 m). By looking at these days you eliminate the effects of marginal NAO days when its impact should be minimal.

[ski MRG]

Look Tip is wrong about delta NAO and the research proves it. This is a graph showing the percentile increase in snow depth for selected cities using data from individual days for 52 winters. Clearly more southern regions benefit because of their normal marginal temps but obviously the data shows even Boston reaps more snow in a NEG NAO environment. Tip put that Science to bed my man.

During the 52 extended winter a total of 6305 days were examined. The positive phase of the NAO occurred in 2993 of the days and the negative phase of the NAO occurred in 3312 of the days. Also, the 1 standard deviation (SD) level was examined and there was a total of 2059 days in this category. It showed that 855 days exceeded the positive 1 SD level (NAO > 166 m) and 1204 days were more extreme than the negative 1 SD level (NAO < -166 m). By looking at these days you eliminate the effects of marginal NAO days when its impact should be minimal.

OUCH!!! That's gotta hurt.

[Ginx snewx]

sorry for the IMBY post.

NAM still showing >75 knot winds down near 950-925mb over SE MA/Cape/Islands. that's insane.

A little bird told me Euro has 850 winds still over 100 for the outer cape, weenie mobile time, helluva inversion though, maybe you can get some mixing with that rise/ fall couplet, good day for a gravity wave to rip you a new bunghole.

[Typhoon Tip]

Look Tip is wrong about delta NAO and the research proves it. This is a graph showing the percentile increase in snow depth for selected cities using data from individual days for 52 winters. Clearly more southern regions benefit because of their normal marginal temps but obviously the data shows even Boston reaps more snow in a NEG NAO environment. Tip put that Science to bed my man.

During the 52 extended winter a total of 6305 days were examined. The positive phase of the NAO occurred in 2993 of the days and the negative phase of the NAO occurred in 3312 of the days. Also, the 1 standard deviation (SD) level was examined and there was a total of 2059 days in this category. It showed that 855 days exceeded the positive 1 SD level (NAO > 166 m) and 1204 days were more extreme than the negative 1 SD level (NAO < -166 m). By looking at these days you eliminate the effects of marginal NAO days when its impact should be minimal.

Dude, this does nothing to refute my statements; so NO, Ski' it doesn't 'OUCH' at all!

The questiion is differentiating NAO, not the -NAO its self. Not sure why that is not registering with you. This product does nothing to represent the differentiating NAO.

Sure the storm might have taken place with a negative NAO, but was it static while that took place? That's the question at hand, not whether it can snow at all, but where is the better probability.

This is not too disimilar to the Archembault science, conceptual as to why it works with the PNA as well.

I mean, you just went through a period of intense -NAO and it didn't snow - gee I wonder why. My Met degree is valid, dude - I understand the principles behind my discussion. I am not making this up as I go along. The foundemental cause of less snowing in a suppressive -NAO static mode is because there is less large synoptic scale mixing of air masses - that is as basic as it gets, and as simply as one can put it.

Anyway, here is to some transition flakes in the morning.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Damn, that's a lot of rain. Over 4" up the CT River Valley. Don't know how much of that is rain up in ME though. Probably 80%+.

[dendrite]

sorry for the IMBY post.

NAM still showing >75 knot winds down near 950-925mb over SE MA/Cape/Islands. that's insane.

[ski MRG]

Damn, that's a lot of rain. Over 4" up the CT River Valley. Don't know how much of that is rain up in ME though. Probably 80%+.

Could be a problem. The ground here has frost down a foot + right now. Most of that will be deflected into the basins. There is also a considerable build up of ice on the rivers/streams.

[Ginx snewx]

Dude, this does nothing to refute my statements; so NO, Skeir' it doesn't 'OUCH' at all!

The questiion is differentiating NAO, not the -NAO its self. Not sure why that is not registering with you. This product does nothing to represent the differentiating NAO.

Sure the storm might have taken place with a negative NAO, but was it static while that took place? That's the question at hand, not whether it can snow at all, but where is the better probability.

This is not too disimilar to the Archembault science, conceptual as to why it works with the PNA as well.

I stated several times it is the position and amplitude of the negative state. Please go back and read your posts, you have misconstrued your comments. Clearly we all mostly know that the NAO is not static, of course Heathers research is about complete phase change and the correlation with heavy precip events. I have totally lost what you are trying to say because you contradicted your earlier comments. I believe everyone else here is confused too.

[Tropopause_Fold]

yeah pretty remarkable. was looking at bufkit and it's got 50 knots down to 970mb.

[Ginx snewx]

yeah pretty remarkable. was looking at bufkit and it's got 50 knots down to 970mb.

Keep an eye out for a Gwave tomorrow right before insane precip cuts off. I think you are prime spot for some damage tomorrow.

[ski MRG]

Dude, this does nothing to refute my statements; so NO, Ski' it doesn't 'OUCH' at all!

The questiion is differentiating NAO, not the -NAO its self. Not sure why that is not registering with you. This product does nothing to represent the differentiating NAO.

Sure the storm might have taken place with a negative NAO, but was it static while that took place? That's the question at hand, not whether it can snow at all, but where is the better probability.

This is not too disimilar to the Archembault science, conceptual as to why it works with the PNA as well.

I mean, you just went through a period of intense -NAO and it didn't snow - gee I wonder why. My Met degree is valid, dude - I understand the principles behind my discussion. I am not making this up as I go along. The foundemental cause of less snowing in a suppressive -NAO static mode is because there is less large synoptic scale mixing of air masses - that is as basic as it gets, and as simply as one can put it.

Anyway, here is to some transition flakes in the morning.

So, John, forgive my ignorance but your contention is that the mere presence of the -NAO is not what will be likely to produce snow. Rather, a fluctuating NAO (rising/falling) is the mechanism that is likely to trigger a favorable outcome. I think I read a post from you at some point saying you favored a rising NAO over the sinking, I could be wrong, In any event, I think the effects of an over-bearing -NAO have been well illustrated over the last 12 months so....

[Tropopause_Fold]

So, John, forgive my ignorance but your contention is that the mere presence of the -NAO is not what will be likely to produce snow. Rather, a fluctuating NAO (rising/falling) is the mechanism that is likely to trigger a favorable outcome. I think I read a post from you at some point saying you favored a rising NAO over the sinking, I could be wrong, In any event, I think the effects of an over-bearing -NAO have been well illustrated over the last 12 months so....

well unfortunately it's not as black and white as some might want to believe. it does snow when the nao is negative. it doesn't take very long to dig up evidence actually.

i think scott's point earlier was best - you just don't want a block on steroids. the roid induced block is trouble for the northeast.

[Ginx snewx]

So, John, forgive my ignorance but your contention is that the mere presence of the -NAO is not what will be likely to produce snow. Rather, a fluctuating NAO (rising/falling) is the mechanism that is likely to trigger a favorable outcome. I think I read a post from you at some point saying you favored a rising NAO over the sinking, I could be wrong, In any event, I think the effects of an over-bearing -NAO have been well illustrated over the last 12 months so....

Amplitude and position, bigger storms occur during a rise on average however some of the biggest storms in history have occurred just as the bottom is falling out. What I posted is that overall if you are looking for a great winter you want a Neg NAO. I think you will find that an insanely deep Neg NAO like last year with it's attendant marine crap was made worse by the time of year and the lack of good snow cover in Canada. A vortmax out of whack is the only reason we did not get blasted with a huge KU last year, not the state of the NAO at the time. Last years hangover is screwing with perspective. History tells us that great things happen when we are in a pattern like this, whether we capitalize or not is the question, but as I said and Tip made the point to belittle, I will take my chances. I am posting about SOUTHERN NE only.

[skierinvermont]

I dont think what Tip and some of you are saying is really that much at odds.

Some of you are saying it's the placement. He's saying it's the flux. It's sort of a different way of saying the same thing.. a large very strong -NAO can be overbearing. From what Ginx is saying you can still get big storms even in these very strong -NAOs.. as long as the block is in the right spot. It wasn't really in the right spot the last 3 weeks at least given the particular s/w pattern that we had.

Saying it's "the flux" sort of misses the point though it's just a way of statistically capturing the NAO being in the right place. The block is more likely to be in the right place and of the right strength during a period of flux. But it is also possible during the apex as well.

[OKpowdah]

Could be a problem. The ground here has frost down a foot + right now. Most of that will be deflected into the basins. There is also a considerable build up of ice on the rivers/streams.

That's a really really good point

[weathafella]

Enjoy your bare ground. It will be gone by next weekend. Big winter still on the way...and just for Nate.....GOA.....despite the vortex. I know things.

Now compare it to 1 week earlier:

Good days ahead. Look at the big picture folks. We have a great setup but the team's in a snow slump. Like all good teams, we'll break out.

[CT Rain]

I agree Jerry especially for the rest of December. I could see 2 snow threats between 12/20 and 12/31.

[mahk_webstah]

Right now as long as it shows a blizzard for someone.

I agree with John about the -NAO myth. Just because we have a -NAO does not mean we have storm on the coast. The Blizzard of 2005 is a great example of this, where the NAO was positive but was shifting towards neutral and negative levels. The +PNA was the biggest factor, especially since it was associated with the northern jet stream.

My third winter up here and a -NAO has been ****e. I'm just saying...SWFEs for the win every time. Haven't had a Miller B bomb up here yet I'm sure that'll be fun when it happens.

[Ginx snewx]

Keep an eye out for a Gwave tomorrow right before insane precip cuts off. I think you are prime spot for some damage tomorrow.

Phil and the outer Cape seem prime for a significant squall line which could mix down those insane just off the deck winds. banding site shows a real propensity to develop a GWAVE fold.

[MaineJayhawk]

My third winter up here and a -NAO has been ****e. I'm just saying...SWFEs for the win every time. Haven't had a Miller B bomb up here yet I'm sure that'll be fun when it happens.

Third winter here ... 08/09 not good for you? Had over 97" here.

[mahk_webstah]

I for one don't want to try Winter without the -NAO. Some fluctuation in strength would be good but a +NAO seems to be a kiss of death.

We want the -NAO pulsing I think so we can cash in on the transitions.

[mahk_webstah]

2 year anniversary of one kick azz wknd.

26 inches baby! plus the 5 that fell the Wed before

[mahk_webstah]

If you can, check out what happens. The block gets so huge that it leaves a series of upper level lows across 50N, and waits for some energy split off in the eastern Pacific to come along and phase with. The euro ensembles try to do that as well...or at least it seems like it, but it happens much further southeast.

Was that what happened March 2001? strong block and PV breaks off and phases. Just too late for the majority of the population in the MA and NE. God I remember (was living in Philly) a forecast for 2-3 ft of snow and high winds. As the whole things was falling apart, desperate I was so I ctually chased to Hartford, cancelled work (pretended I was sick and lost $1500) and only saw 10 inches in Hartford.