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The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

TalcottWx

By TalcottWx,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

I'm not negative just objective...people on here keep saying "The next storm is the one", "3-6 Monday" and all the rest of this garbage without anything to back it up. Where is the snow? Most of SNE is sitting on a trace or a couple tenths for the season and the next serious threat is at Day 9-10. Sounds as if my approach has been realistic so far.

And honestly, who cares what the ECM shows at Day 10? That storm doesn't even look possible, definitely not the synoptics I'd want for a NYC blizzard. Model threats don't get important until they come into the 6-7 day range, this is just fantasy.

Here,

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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Skier', it is true the NAO relaxed and this cutter was poorly timed, but the whole game isn't decided on one play, is a metaphor I'd like to employ. Fact remains, a month's worth of synoptic systems in general suffered suppression nearing our lat/log due to the suppressive might of the -NAO.

Litch', I am detached - I'm frustrated at the -NAO band wagon, not the weather. As I said, I'm about to drop off for the evening and I really won't care at all.

Will, respectfully and whole-heartedly disagree with you. This is statistical fact my friend; -NAO modes do not snow proficiently; the storms come at the bookends of both the positive and negative intervals. You will DEFINITELY find more success when the EPO is negative and the PNA delivers cold and amplitude potentials in tandem with a neutral NAO, or an NAO on the move.

People - it is time to dismiss the myth get with the science.

:facepalm:

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

You can't just say a -nao is bad. That's horrifically broad brushing the index and can be proved countless times where we benefitted in sne. Ginx I know has the stats, but it shouldn't need to be proven.

Now if you want to say a very strong -nao (something like -5 to -6SD) can be bad for sne, ok you may have a point, but it does move into a better position down the road. Because of the block, a PV or piece of a PV can break off and phase with an incoming s/w like the euro op has to cause a major storm. I even said a few days ago it could happen..(.only mentioned it as a way to potentially screw sne, but also helps out) just give it a few runs.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

It seems like we have two choices this year: 1.) Negative NAO and dry/cold, or 2.) torch.

I guess #1 is better because the ski areas can make snow and I get an occasional few inches from the lakes... But that's cheap fake snow....I want a synoptic event.

I'll take #2; I couldn't care less about the ski areas....I'd rather be comfy.

If we can find a way to place them in the freezer and have it pleasant here, then cool.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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well, as much as people like to deny it or make exception for it. I do technically live in SNE.

Yea, you are technically just within the geographical constraints of our region, but you are more climatologically and demographically akin to NYS and VT....I think that is where that misconception has it's origin.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I gotta be a ******** here and say told you so to all those that wanted on with this -NAO bullcrap.

'You get what you deserve' - I warned everyone about this 4 weeks ago when the runs started sniffing out this toxic schit-synoptic. May as well eat schit just as well as having a -NAO.

Oh, I'm sure someone will come back with a statement like, "Yeah, well, I'll take my chance with the -NAO because of x, y, or z reason..."

Bullschit. No reasons. -NAO is bad; delta(NAO) is good - end of discussion.

Frustration: I think the collective will of the community is somehow working like Jedi magic to move the -NAO into position because they can't seem to get their collective head around the reasons why it's bad (the reasons hammered out ad nauseam) to have one, and keep insisting internally that we have it this way.

At the end of all this it's a lesson that will fail to be learned, and come next late November next year when the NAO is flagged to crash, all these community denizens will get all in a glowing good mood and be totally wrong again, and again, and again...

Welp - this is about enough for me. I'm off to go to my sis' 40th this evening, get drunk and hit on her friends and guess what? I won't think about any of these model runs or the the fact that the -NAO continues to lube up the cosmic dildo against the winter weather wanters while they cluelessly and falsely believe it is a good thing even once during the whole time.

Have fun -

get drunk? you sure you are sober now?

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

good...at least you can count yourself among the minority who actually manage to maintain some sense of perspective.

I can bi*** with the best of them, but having a MECS caliber event modeled as a 150 mile miss to the south in the the day 8-9 range, during a strong la Nina isn't the worst thing in the world. :lol:

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I can bi*** with the best of them, but having a MECS caliber event modeled as a 150 mile miss to the south in the the day 8-9 range, in a strong la Nina isn't the worst thing in the world. :lol:

well the euro after day 7 is essentially = to the gfs so it's pretty pointless anyway.

but i should check the science first...make sure i'm not missing something.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Scott, that was a good pick up on the 500 maps with the PV phasing with the southern stream. Not saying anything more than that. I'd rather have the -NAO/AO than deal with a positive one.

If you can, check out what happens. The block gets so huge that it leaves a series of upper level lows across 50N, and waits for some energy split off in the eastern Pacific to come along and phase with. The euro ensembles try to do that as well...or at least it seems like it, but it happens much further southeast.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

If you can, check out what happens. The block gets so huge that it leaves a series of upper level lows across 50N, and waits for some energy split off in the eastern Pacific to come along and phase with. The euro ensembles try to do that as well...or at least it seems like it, but it happens much further southeast.

I was just looking at the 1978 maps. When I get a chance I will look at it more.

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