The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow next week folks.. The bus is rev kevving

[Typhoon Tip]

Skier', it is true the NAO relaxed and this cutter was poorly timed, but the whole game isn't decided on one play, is a metaphor I'd like to employ. Fact remains, a month's worth of synoptic systems in general suffered suppression nearing our lat/log due to the suppressive might of the -NAO.

Litch', I am detached - I'm frustrated at the -NAO band wagon, not the weather. As I said, I'm about to drop off for the evening and I really won't care at all.

Will, respectfully and whole-heartedly disagree with you. This is statistical fact my friend; -NAO modes do not snow proficiently; the storms come at the bookends of both the positive and negative intervals. You will DEFINITELY find more success when the EPO is negative and the PNA delivers cold and amplitude potentials in tandem with a neutral NAO, or an NAO on the move.

People - it is time to dismiss the myth get with the science.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

It would look like the storm could be a two stream phaser according to hour 168 on the free PSU ewall site. Southern stream shortwave and northern stream bowling ball shortwave could phase with one another. I don't have the latest hour on the EURO.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Tippy bomb coming up the coast at hr 192.

Yeah, looks like that ULL moves off the northeast coast and sets up a 50/50

[Damage In Tolland]

Skier', it is true the NAO relaxed and this cutter was poorly timed, but the whole game isn't decided on one play, is a metaphor I'd like to employ. Fact remains, a month's worth of synoptic systems in general suffered suppression nearing our lat/log due to the suppressive might of the -NAO.

Litch', I am detached - I'm frustrated at the -NAO band wagon, not the weather. As I said, I'm about to drop off for the evening and I really won't care at all.

Will, respectfully and whole-heartedly disagree with you. This is statistical fact my friend; -NAO modes do not snow proficiently; the storms come at the bookends of both the positive and negative intervals. You will DEFINITELY find more success when the EPO is negative and the PNA delivers cold and amplitude potentials in tandem with a neutral NAO, or an NAO on the move.

People - it is time to dismiss the myth get with the science.

I think your science book is either outdated or you're reading it upside down

[snowNH]

Snow next year folks.. The bus is rev kevving

You must of miss typed.. I fixed it for you though

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, looks like that ULL moves off the northeast coast and sets up a 50/50

Only it becomes an NYC blizzard..lol and screws sne.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Only it becomes an NYC blizzard..lol and screws sne.

Fine by me. I think we've seen how these systems trend in the past couple weeks.

[Damage In Tolland]

Only it becomes an NYC blizzard..lol and screws sne.

That is well north of 00z run..good trends the last 24

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL it wouldn't snow in NYC and completly miss SNE

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Only it becomes an NYC blizzard..lol and screws sne.

Right now as long as it shows a blizzard for someone.

I agree with John about the -NAO myth. Just because we have a -NAO does not mean we have storm on the coast. The Blizzard of 2005 is a great example of this, where the NAO was positive but was shifting towards neutral and negative levels. The +PNA was the biggest factor, especially since it was associated with the northern jet stream.

[CoastalWx]

LOL it wouldn't snow in NYC and completly miss SNE

No, it pulls a Feb 2010.

[cpickett79]

Skier', it is true the NAO relaxed and this cutter was poorly timed, but the whole game isn't decided on one play, is a metaphor I'd like to employ. Fact remains, a month's worth of synoptic systems in general suffered suppression nearing our lat/log due to the suppressive might of the -NAO.

Litch', I am detached - I'm frustrated at the -NAO band wagon, not the weather. As I said, I'm about to drop off for the evening and I really won't care at all.

Will, respectfully and whole-heartedly disagree with you. This is statistical fact my friend; -NAO modes do not snow proficiently; the storms come at the bookends of both the positive and negative intervals. You will DEFINITELY find more success when the EPO is negative and the PNA delivers cold and amplitude potentials in tandem with a neutral NAO, or an NAO on the move.

People - it is time to dismiss the myth get with the science.

then what does it mean when the AO is tanking with a -NAO consistently

[DomNH]

Only it becomes an NYC blizzard..lol and screws sne.

Thankfully it's D9.

[Ginx snewx]

You're off your rocker dude....we'd torch to death without that block with the current/upcoming PAC set up....we've had plenty of good systems with a strong NAO block.

Don't jump from the rafters yet.

I am surprised someone with his knowledge is letting one winter skew the entire history of blockbuster -NAO winters, its about negative amplitude and placement. Anyone who takes a GFS OP run and jumps off the Tobin deserves the consequences.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Scott, I rather see the models pull a FEB 2010 right now in the 5-7 day range, then when we got closer it came further northward with time. The nature of the PNA will be a big factor with regards to this storm system.

[WeatherX]

Interesting...

[Baroclinic Zone]

I am surprised someone with his knowledge is letting one winter skew the entire history of blockbuster -NAO winters, its about negative amplitude and placement. Anyone who takes a GFS OP run and jumps off the Tobin deserves the consequences.

We are truly in uncharted territory given the Mod/Strong Nina and the -AO/NAO couplet.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

EURO seems to show a much stronger northern stream than southern stream, leading to a major low over the western NY/PA region as opposed to the offshore low. I would wait another 4 days before getting excited about this storm system.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

12z EURO is the most amplified outlier, with the GFS the most progressive outlier right now at day 6-9.

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay, did take one last peek before heading out ...

Ginx,

I am not letting x do anything to y in this. And, I am not wrong - those blockbuster years you speak of, you have to look at each storm discretely and the behavior of the NOA mode lead up to, during and as the storm was exiting - you're not understanding this apparently.

Everyone else, the Euro is onto its 5th cycle with extended range system - though of course it has varied on details, duh. But, this is a different regime during that period of time than anything we have encountered over the last month; namely, the PNAP (Perennial North American Pattern) is in place. It will be interesting to see if the NAO weakens some prior to this arriving along the OV, and then restrengthens as it comes (see Feb 1978, 2nd - 6th). This 12z scenario is of similar ilk in that PV subsumes a southern stream impulse ....phasing along the MA.

Gotta run for real now.

[nzucker]

Will, respectfully and whole-heartedly disagree with you. This is statistical fact my friend; -NAO modes do not snow proficiently; the storms come at the bookends of both the positive and negative intervals. You will DEFINITELY find more success when the EPO is negative and the PNA delivers cold and amplitude potentials in tandem with a neutral NAO, or an NAO on the move.

People - it is time to dismiss the myth get with the science.

Thank you. The Pacific continues to look horrible, so I'm skeptical of the -NAO delivering anything. The -NAO was horrible to New England last winter, and this winter has been a total joke so far with a -NAO/-AO.

then what does it mean when the AO is tanking with a -NAO consistently

It means that we have a huge ridge over Greenland and the North Pole that isn't doing sh*t to get us snow.

[Mr Torchey]

Thank you. The Pacific continues to look horrible, so I'm skeptical of the -NAO delivering anything. The -NAO was horrible to New England last winter, and this winter has been a total joke so far with a -NAO/-AO.

It means that we have a huge ridge over Greenland and the North Pole that isn't doing sh*t to get us snow.

With all due respect zukeeee the euro just gave you three feet of snow, your negativity sucks ass, seriuosly dude let it go.

[ski MRG]

January will rock. I've taken several steps back over the past few days. Enjoyed a milder 2 hours outdoors this morning while still not the torch that frisbee'ers revel in. I forgot my cell but had I brought it I would have taken photos of the smooth ice ponds in and around the Muddy River. I saw children walking on it and it easily supported their weight though parents wouldn't let them venture beyond the edge (smart!). I expect snow to be on the ground in some quantity certainly by cob Friday.

I noticed that ice fishing season has started here. Several lakes had guys out and on Onota Lake there was one guy rippin' around on a quad.

[Logan11]

It seems like we have two choices this year: 1.) Negative NAO and dry/cold, or 2.) torch.

I guess #1 is better because the ski areas can make snow and I get an occasional few inches from the lakes... But that's cheap fake snow....I want a synoptic event.

You're off your rocker dude....we'd torch to death without that block with the current/upcoming PAC set up....we've had plenty of good systems with a strong NAO block.

Don't jump from the rafters yet.

[nzucker]

With all due respect zukeeee the euro just gave you three feet of snow, your negativity sucks ass, seriuosly dude let it go.

I'm not negative just objective...people on here keep saying "The next storm is the one", "3-6 Monday" and all the rest of this garbage without anything to back it up. Where is the snow? Most of SNE is sitting on a trace or a couple tenths for the season and the next serious threat is at Day 9-10. Sounds as if my approach has been realistic so far.

And honestly, who cares what the ECM shows at Day 10? That storm doesn't even look possible, definitely not the synoptics I'd want for a NYC blizzard. Model threats don't get important until they come into the 6-7 day range, this is just fantasy.

[Logan11]

GEE I wonder which one will verify. LOL

EURO seems to show a much stronger northern stream than southern stream, leading to a major low over the western NY/PA region as opposed to the offshore low. I would wait another 4 days before getting excited about this storm system.

[ski MRG]

With all due respect zukeeee the euro just gave you three feet of snow, your negativity sucks ass, seriuosly dude let it go.

LOL, Every one is so down. Can't wait for the flatlanders to get some snow. Hopefully it put the whining to an end. It's getting regoddamndiculous.

[skierinvermont]

I'm not negative just objective...people on here keep saying "The next storm is the one", "3-6 Monday" and all the rest of this garbage without anything to back it up. Where is the snow? Most of SNE is sitting on a trace or a couple tenths for the season and the next serious threat is at Day 9-10. Sounds as if my approach has been realistic so far.

And honestly, who cares what the ECM shows at Day 10? That storm doesn't even look possible, definitely not the synoptics I'd want for a NYC blizzard. Model threats don't get important until they come into the 6-7 day range, this is just fantasy.

Clearly it is possible.. in fact likely in such a pattern.. given models have been showing some version of this storm the last 2 days. It's also not D9-10.. it's D8-9

[Mr Torchey]

I'm not negative just objective...people on here keep saying "The next storm is the one", "3-6 Monday" and all the rest of this garbage without anything to back it up. Where is the snow? Most of SNE is sitting on a trace or a couple tenths for the season and the next serious threat is at Day 9-10. Sounds as if my approach has been realistic so far.

And honestly, who cares what the ECM shows at Day 10? That storm doesn't even look possible, definitely not the synoptics I'd want for a NYC blizzard. Model threats don't get important until they come into the 6-7 day range, this is just fantasy.

Zuk, its december 11th, would do you expect for dobbs ferry ny? LOL, kids were skating on a local pond this morning, the back bays and harbor in southport here on long island sound have ice on them and we are like minus a million after a +10 on Dec 1st. Not really sure what you are talking about?