cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 H5 already closed off in western Iowa by noon. Uh oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It's really slow compared to 18z. And farther south. Slow would be good....maybe I get some during my Shift Sunday....and it can dump more for everyone....you would expect it to be slower with it digging more....likely a result of better/more sampling of the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 21z SREF: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_bsp_018s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_bsp_024s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_bsp_030s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_bsp_036s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_bsp_042s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 27hrs NAM has the SLP along the WI/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 0z nam coming in now Comparing the 12z/00z NAM looks like it has shifted south by about 100 miles when looking at 00z f24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 MPX gets nailed...1.5 qpf if nam is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 NAM comes in a tad south but more intense with the trowal/deformation band farther N just as the 18Z GFS did. Paints 1.5" qpf over TC. That would be about 20 inches of snow. I would take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 can we translate for me...am i seeing mix or more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 NAM comes in a tad south but more intense with the trowal/deformation band farther N just as the 18Z GFS did. Paints 1.5" qpf over TC. That would be about 20 inches of snow. I would take that. If that verified... how close to last year's TOTAL would that put us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 If you compare the 24 hour QPF between the 0z and 12z NAM, through 0z Sunday, DLH goes from about 1.00" on the 12z run to 0.1" on the 0z run. That's some crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 NAM shifted south but it looks like it'll still be on the northern fringe of model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Still a pretty vicious dry punch into northern Illinois late in the afternoon per latest NAM. However, I can easily see that area quickly fill in if this system continues to trend stronger. Definitely a shift south from the 12z, and even the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icey Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 As far I can see more snow for Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Still a pretty vicious dry punch into northern Illinois late in the afternoon per latest NAM. However, I can easily see that area quickly fill in if this system continues to trend stronger. Definitely a shift south from the 12z, and even the 18z. It'll be interesting to watch how the sfc low evolves over the next 6-8 hours. Right now best 3 hour pres falls seem to take the sfc low towards central IA. Nam would put the low close to the MN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 that ull keeps getting more intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 If you compare the 24 hour QPF between the 0z and 12z NAM, through 0z Sunday, DLH goes from about 1.00" on the 12z run to 0.1" on the 0z run. That's some crazy stuff. otice the 24 hour QPF in western Wisconsin topping 2.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 otice the 24 hour QPF in western Wisconsin topping 2.25. notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It'll be interesting to watch how the sfc low evolves over the next 6-8 hours. Right now best 3 hour pres falls seem to take the sfc low towards central IA. Nam would put the low close to the MN border. That would have significant implications on the track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It'll be interesting to watch how the sfc low evolves over the next 6-8 hours. Right now best 3 hour pres falls seem to take the sfc low towards central IA. Nam would put the low close to the MN border. Very good point. Even though the NAM is basically brand new, it still may be a hair behind the reality of the situation. Amazing to see something like this evolving so close to crunch time. Just shows how unusual this system is, and makes it very exciting. With a storm system like this everything is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 otice the 24 hour QPF in western Wisconsin topping 2.25. Yeah, this run seems wetter so far. A big chunk of Wisconsin is going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 otice the 24 hour QPF in western Wisconsin topping 2.25. Yeah, incredible hit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Interesting looking horseshoe low at 36hrs. You can almost get the feel that the southern part of that horseshoe could end up being the dominant low, even by that time. If that ends up being the case then the heavy snow would shift even further south. Just speculating out loud here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Very good point. Even though the NAM is basically brand new, it still may be a hair behind the reality of the situation. Amazing to see something like this evolving so close to crunch time. Just shows how unusual this system is, and makes it very exciting. With a storm system like this everything is still on the table. It's an exciting and nuanced storm, but I'd rather have all the global models converging on a blizzard 5 days out and sticking with it until all the snow has fallen. Less drama the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 It seems almost impossible but the pressure gradient actually looks a hair tighter around the Quad Cities into Wisconsin at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wouldn't it be incredibly ironic if the most action did eventually track closer to the OV as some of the models were originally suggesting contrary to the Euro? Highly unlikely, but the trends are intriguing at this late hour in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I think the local NWS is going to have to up the snowfall amounts over the North half of our area and everywhere West of the river and likely upgrade to a WS Warning and then the Blizzard Warning will have to be dealt with. I think the signs are there this will end up a bit further South and could very well be wetter and the way the upper level features look I'd say a good amount of precip after mid day tomorrow very likely is almost all snow here. Those mid level lows will keep the column cool and aid in tremendous lift which only will aid in snow production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wouldn't it be incredibly ironic if the most action did eventually track closer to the OV as some of the models were originally suggesting contrary to the Euro? Highly unlikely, but the trends are intriguing at this late hour in the game. It would....but I would think the farthest south track that may verify if the sift continued would be along or a little south of the 80 corridor from Illinois to Ohio. Maybe something like 20 miles south of there....40 at most....but that would be a stretch I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Again assuming the 0z NAM is right, but there were places in the far NW part of WI that had near 1.5" QPF that's been reduced to 0.25" on this run. Of course I also assume that the offices up there weren't going exclusively with the NAM either. Snowstorms are finicky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Justin, what are you thinking up here in southern WI? Would the southern track increase the snow amounts forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.