Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

[snowstormcanuck]

since it's a mean, isn't it possible the individual members do but in different locations causing it to appear not to in the mean? I guess i'd have to see the spread.

Well, we'll know for sure in about 10 minutes, but it's at least indicative that a fair amount of GEFS members are jucier than the OP run. If there was a big spread in location I'd think you'd see a broad swath of light precip, rather than focused axis of 0.25-0.50" with the 0.50"+ lollipop.

[snowstormcanuck]

Do you think it has some influence from the sub-tropical moisture plume?

Honestly, I have no idea.

[BowMeHunter]

Trends are looking better for you. Just talked to my sister around Milwaukee...I took the plunge on a slightly more southern track and said that I anticipate MKE (she works at the airport) to have severely restricted operations at best on Sunday and possibly shut down. Of course the trends should continue to be watched very closely but it seems like the north one has been halted right now.

What does she do there? My dad works in the Maintenance department.. I wouldn't want to be my dad out on the runways if this baby comes together. If you remember the next time you talk to her, ask her if she knows a big grey headed and goatee guy named, John S.

I haven't got to up or down with my emotions during this storm and it sure makes for a more enjoyable track.. I look at the calendar and its only early dec and we've already had two events.. It this one can somehow come together its just a big bonus. I couldn't ask for a much better start to winter tracking along with the much below temps..

[Harry]

Well, we'll know for sure in about 10 minutes, but it's at least indicative that a fair amount of GEFS members are jucier than the OP run. If there was a big spread in location I'd think you'd see a broad swath of light precip, rather than focused axis of 0.25-0.50" with the 0.50"+ lollipop.

Pretty much.. Usually how that works.

[OceanStWx]

Is that the same piece baroclinic was pointing out in Montana this morning?

One in the same.

[ILSNOW]

skiling calling for up to 6-10 inches in chicago and 4-6 west.

[BowMeHunter]

since it's a mean, isn't it possible the individual members do but in different locations causing it to appear not to in the mean? I guess i'd have to see the spread.

Anyone heard from Blowme?

I'm just sitting back and enjoying the reading... Nothing to add. Gotta say this one did feel like it could have a few tricks up its sleeve even when it was feeling pretty bleak last night.

baroclinic has also kept me from getting too excited.. Now I got Saukville in chat going 9-12" in MKE.

[Justin]

Surface low appears to be South a bit on surface charts from where it was progged. I think this has some surprises up its sleeve for my area thru Chicago. I wouldn't be shocked to see places around here end up with at least 4-6" of snow and maybe a few places up to 8".

[A-L-E-K]

Surface low appears to be South a bit on surface charts from where it was progged. I think this has some surprises up its sleeve for my area thru Chicago. I wouldn't be shocked to see places around here end up with at least 4-6" of snow and maybe a few places up to 8".

4-6" with the kind of winds that are likely is going to be a blast. If someone gets 8" in the defo band with 50+ mph winds, it will be epic. Thanks for your thoughts.

[wisconsinwx]

skiling calling for up to 6-10 inches in chicago and 4-6 west.

I have it under good authority that when he was forecasting in Milwaukee, he would have consistently much higher snow totals than typical. I was told that one year someone tallied all of his forecasted snow totals from the winter storms combined, and it exceeded 200 inches. For the record, 100 inches for a year is an historic winter, let alone 200.

Edit: I had also been told he has tempered his snow forecasts, probably what allowed him to become popular. It's hard to imagine one of the meteorologists with the best reputations used to be so far off.

[Harry]

I have it under good authority that when he was forecasting in Milwaukee, he would have consistently much higher snow totals than typical. I was told that one year someone tallied all of his forecasted snow totals from the winter storms combined, and it exceeded 200 inches. For the record, 100 inches for a year is an historic winter, let alone 200.

[Chicago WX]

Just got home and read though the threads, looked at the 12z/18z runs, etc...I'm happy to see our E IA, N IL, S and C WI, N IN, and MI crowd back in the game, sort of speak. For the record I like 2-4" for LAF, which I would be 100% content with. Gonna be a fun storm.

[Justin]

I actually think there is room Alek for the surface low to dive even further SE before turning E when considering where the greatest pressure falls are consolidating. This is going to bust for someone to high on snow amounts in MN/WI and to low for amounts across IA/NRN IL/NRN IN/SRN MI... book it. I just don't see the extreme Northern solutions verifying at this point... and we have some models that shifted the upper level features South as well which would also allow a more South and then East component rather than E and NE to the surface low....though it will eventually turn more to the NE as it rapidly deepens. Icing could be a bigger threat across Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois as well... there is enough room for some evaporative cooling of surface temps as the WAA precip. starts in the next few hours...and there is a pretty good due Easterly flow across these areas as well.

[A-L-E-K]

I actually think there is room Alek for the surface low to dive even further SE before turning E when considering where the greatest pressure falls are consolidating. This is going to bust for someone to high on snow amounts in MN/WI and to low for amounts across IA/NRN IL/NRN IN/SRN MI... book it. I just don't see the extreme Northern solutions verifying at this point... and we have some models that shifted the upper level features South as well which would also allow a more South and then East component rather than E and NE to the surface low....though it will eventually turn more to the NE as it rapidly deepens. Icing could be a bigger threat across Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois as well... there is enough room for some evaporative cooling of surface temps as the WAA precip. starts in the next few hours...and there is a pretty good due Easterly flow across these areas as well.

Maybe you missed my post where i said i needed someone to talk me down, not get me more psyched. I have to sleep tonight because it sure doesn't look like i'll be doing much tomorrow.

[ILSNOW]

Maybe you missed my post where i said i needed someone to talk me down, not get me more psyched. I have to sleep tonight because it sure doesn't look like i'll be doing much tomorrow.

skilling bears game 15degrees snow and winds gusting to 45mph

[A-L-E-K]

skilling bears game 15degrees snow and winds gusting to 45mph

It's a shame it got flexed to 3pm.

[snowstormcanuck]

I actually think there is room Alek for the surface low to dive even further SE before turning E when considering where the greatest pressure falls are consolidating. This is going to bust for someone to high on snow amounts in MN/WI and to low for amounts across IA/NRN IL/NRN IN/SRN MI... book it. I just don't see the extreme Northern solutions verifying at this point... and we have some models that shifted the upper level features South as well which would also allow a more South and then East component rather than E and NE to the surface low....though it will eventually turn more to the NE as it rapidly deepens. Icing could be a bigger threat across Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois as well... there is enough room for some evaporative cooling of surface temps as the WAA precip. starts in the next few hours...and there is a pretty good due Easterly flow across these areas as well.

It'll be one for the ages if the UKIE, against all odds, scores a coup.

[baroclinic_instability]

Is that the same piece baroclinic was pointing out in Montana this morning?

Yes sir indeed, a low amplitude shortwave trough. From an IPV perspective, a moderate PV anomaly, but it is about to go gangbusters over that low level baroclinic zone.

[baroclinic_instability]

GEFS much wetter than the GFS. Ensembles doesn't have the type of massive dryslot the OP run has.

They don't because that is the mean QPF. It is sort of an average in a sense therefore it will look broad-brushed.

[Chicago WX]

skilling bears game 15degrees snow and winds gusting to 45mph

Can't wait. Forte and Taylor better be ready.

[Moneyman]

Good thing I don't have Cutler on my fantasy team.

MKE is saying 12-15 inches for my area (S-C WI) I'll take it.

Good thing GB doesn't play home this weekend, with our running game, it probably would have been a sure loss.

[MadTown]

money where are you in wisco

[A-L-E-K]

They don't because that is the mean QPF. It is sort of an average in a sense therefore it will look broad-brushed.

that's what i suspected but you put it better.

[Organizing Low]

money where are you in wisco

he's near the monopoly factory.

[A-L-E-K]

money where are you in wisco

FDL i believes, but please people add your locations.

[A-L-E-K]

he's near the monopoly factory.

[baroclinic_instability]

18Z UK going NAM and intensifying the low and tracking it farther N along the MN/IA border. MPX is going to get hit hard.

[Moneyman]

I live in Fond du Lac. Have no idea how to add my location though.

[trapperman]

18Z UK going NAM and intensifying the low and tracking it farther N along the MN/IA border. MPX is going to get hit hard.

Edit: Although if this keeps up we are n serious trouble next spring what with water levels where they are...

[A-L-E-K]

18Z UK going NAM and intensifying the low and tracking it farther N along the MN/IA border. MPX is going to get hit hard.

Base on current location and pressure falls alone, looks like central iowa is more likely, but if it really cranks off here, i guess IA/MN border is still in play.