weatherbo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 If the 0z confirms, that will be the celery salt...then it's a loaded dog. Chicago style weenie jokes aside. I'm excited by the run and slow shifts south throughout the day, but the idea of south and stronger is a hard pill to swallow. I can't imagine the shallow snow packing would have that much influence. Agreed. After the northward trends the past couple days, I had accepted the miss. still felt like this had a couple suprises left and it would be interesting for our area, but didn't expect a watch with 6-10" and poss more. Still remaining cautious, however. I have been hurt before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Rushford minn 35 miles wnw of la crosse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Tom Skilling Update: Our in-house work puts average precip acrs multiple runs of 8 models at 0.62"--58% as snow which fluffs up into 14 to 1 ratio snow. That produces 4-6" of system snow. 20 hours of lake enhancement cud add up to 5" addnl inches some lakeside areas. So early thinking here is: 4-6" west suburbs; potentially 6+" city & lakeside counties Sat nite into Sun nite. Hvy lake snow to cont into Mon IN/MI snowbelts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well that's why it's a rule of thumb and not the forecast. But it works pretty well. I understand. Just amazing to me that with all the model technology we now have, and years of schooling, even mets figure out shortcuts that work, but are completely untechnical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Rushford minn 35 miles wnw of la crosse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Tom Skilling Update: Our in-house work puts average precip acrs multiple runs of 8 models at 0.62"--58% as snow which fluffs up into 14 to 1 ratio snow. That produces 4-6" of system snow. 20 hours of lake enhancement cud add up to 5" addnl inches some lakeside areas. So early thinking here is: 4-6" west suburbs; potentially 6+" city & lakeside counties Sat nite into Sun nite. Hvy lake snow to cont into Mon IN/MI snowbelts. Skilling slowly ramping up. I'm riding my 2-5 call but will be re-evaluating at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 sucks to see advisories and warnings to the north and east of here..all we need is for some wrap around light snow and an inch of snow to make it intersting with 40-50 mph winds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Tom Skilling Update: Our in-house work puts average precip acrs multiple runs of 8 models at 0.62"--58% as snow which fluffs up into 14 to 1 ratio snow. That produces 4-6" of system snow. 20 hours of lake enhancement cud add up to 5" addnl inches some lakeside areas. So early thinking here is: 4-6" west suburbs; potentially 6+" city & lakeside counties Sat nite into Sun nite. Hvy lake snow to cont into Mon IN/MI snowbelts. Alek will like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Rushford minn 35 miles wnw of la crosse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Tom Skilling Update: Our in-house work puts average precip acrs multiple runs of 8 models at 0.62"--58% as snow which fluffs up into 14 to 1 ratio snow. That produces 4-6" of system snow. 20 hours of lake enhancement cud add up to 5" addnl inches some lakeside areas. So early thinking here is: 4-6" west suburbs; potentially 6+" city & lakeside counties Sat nite into Sun nite. Hvy lake snow to cont into Mon IN/MI snowbelts. It's storms like these where he has earned his rep. Keep in mind his forecast is the same now as when the model consensus showed it thorough the Ohio Valley and when it had it going thorough southern Wisconsin. Will see if his consistency pays off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Alek will like this The 18z NAM and GFS are hinting that the TROWAL/defo band could be the real deal, we do best lakeside with NNE trowals over the lake, they can really dump. Where we're at: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 what is that spin in NE WY on the infrared and water vapor and infrared?. Or am I seeing things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z UKIE has a track similar to the 18z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z UKIE has a track similar to the 18z RGEM. yesterday i find out there is a 18z Ukie, today i found out there's a 18z RGEM. link/pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 yesterday i find out there is a 18z Ukie, today i found out there's a 18z RGEM. link/pic? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2010121018/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 what is that spin in NE WY on the infrared and water vapor and infrared?. Or am I seeing things? That would be our vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 yesterday i find out there is a 18z Ukie, today i found out there's a 18z RGEM. link/pic? You better be heading to the lake for this one. It's going to be absolutely wicked in areas near the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That would be our vort max. Looks like it is moving ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That would be our vort max. as in 500mb low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 You better be heading to the lake for this one. It's going to be absolutely wicked in areas near the shore. I can see it from my room but i'll probably head to the roof or walk down there for some better footage, if things get cranking that is. I promise pics if they're worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 as in 500mb low? Technically speaking, it's the forcing that will help create one. Right now 500 mb is a shortwave, instead of a closed feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Technically speaking, it's the forcing that will help create one. Is that the same piece baroclinic was pointing out in Montana this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Don't look at the 18z GEFS or you might want to sleep with it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z GEFS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Don't look at the 18z GEFS or you might want to sleep with it!! A little teaser for you guys: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 oh my. I need someone to talk me down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 A little teaser for you guys: GEFS much wetter than the GFS. Ensembles doesn't have the type of massive dryslot the OP run has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 GEFS much wetter than the GFS. Ensembles doesn't have the type of massive dryslot the OP run has. since it's a mean, isn't it possible the individual members do but in different locations causing it to appear not to in the mean? I guess i'd have to see the spread. Anyone heard from Blowme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 GEFS much wetter than the GFS. Ensembles doesn't have the type of massive dryslot the OP run has. Do you think it has some influence from the sub-tropical moisture plume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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