Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

[KeenerWx]

First winter storm warning of the season for my local area.

Forecast for 4-6", isolated higher amounts near the lake. Porter County forecasted to get 10-15", isolated higher. TT will have fun with this one.

[daddylonglegs]

Heavy snow around here. Brother just said the stores are packed (go figure). It looks like the traffic on the interstate is moving about 30mph.

My brother told me very early this morning it was all rain at his house and that he still has a glazing of ice.

[ILSNOW]

Quad Cities update

UPDATE FOR HEADLINES...

HAVE UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WARNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE

MS RIVER TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE

PREVIOUS WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL

REMAIN AS IS.

POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WITH 140 METER HEIGHT FALLS AT KOMA AT

12Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. EXPECT

DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IN OUR NW

COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING...SPREADING OVER ALL THE DVN CWA

OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM UPDATE...

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE LATEST TRENDS TODAY...RAIN IS

GRADUALLY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. AS OF NOON...IT

IS SNOWING FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM INDEPENDENCE..INTO CEDAR

RAPIDS...AND MOUNT PLEASANT. A FEW LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ALONG

HIGHWAY 30 NEAR MAQUOKETA AND CLINTON ARE ALSO REPORTING SOME SNOW.

AREAS NORTH OF THERE MAY ALSO BE GETTING SNOW...BUT HAVE NOT

RECEIVED ANY REPORTS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES

SOMEWHAT...AS IT IS GETTTING WARMER IN OUR SOUTH THAN WE HAD...BUT

WITH A SHARPER CHANGE OUT WEST WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED

10-15 DEGREES IN ABOUT AN HOUR. THIS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO

THE WEST WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME

SLICK ROAD REPORTS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ONLY IN A

FEW LOCATIONS...SO HAVE LET THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EXPIRE.

[cyclone77]

A battle between rain and snow here. Had a few minutes of very large flakes mix in, but now just rain again.

[ILSNOW]

Chicago issues Winter storm warning for 4-6 inches

[janetjanet998]

NowI will have a Blizzard warning to my SW and a winterstorm warning to my ENE

wonder if ILX will upgrade their northern counties(ie me)

[mnweather]

I am in Shakopee, seems possible, but so hard to measure with the blowing/drifting.

Baroclinic, I know you discussed gravity waves before on the north shore and now it looks like near Grand Marais and developing to the southwest of it something looks like it wants to get going. It is slight but maybe something to keep an eye on. What do you think?

[A-L-E-K]

Chicago issues Winter storm warning for 4-6 inches

To be a real battle here tonight. On the down side, i think we're bullseye of the warm tounge that has been pulled into the low all day, so areas west and even south probably change to snow before NE Illinois. On the plus side the far north and northeast parts of the state may avoid an excessively long dryslot if the low starts heading SE sooner than later. A long ways to go, since most out snow won't fall until after 6z or so.

[Indystorm]

Rain starting here now and 36 degrees at Elkhart Dunlap.

[Hoosier]

Definitely still liking 2-4" for LAF, possibly a bit higher as the signals for a lake contribution are about as good as I've ever seen around here.

[ukrocks]

Looking like we will get 2-4 inches of snow in Louisville. Definitely ready to see some snow. Rain has began here with temps in the upper 40's.

[baroclinic_instability]

Baroclinic, I know you discussed gravity waves before on the north shore and now it looks like near Grand Marais and developing to the southwest of it something looks like it wants to get going. It is slight but maybe something to keep an eye on. What do you think?

In this case I don't think so. You typically need a strong cross-barrier flow component and a perfect stability/shear profile in the case of the Arrowhead. Not too conducive with this system.

[A-L-E-K]

Also for Chicago people, start watching the progress of the dryslot, looks to me like it may have reached its northern max, the sooner we get that heading SE the better chance we see some snow before the back edge blasts east. Right now it looks like we will easily go over .5" of rain given the robust returns in Illinois.

[MidwestChaser]

Off Topic: I wish this was for Chicago Aleking:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.85549565938301&lon=-121.76078796386719&site=sew&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

[WisTodd]

My location is 40 miles north of downtown Milwaukee, and 12 miles inland from Lake Michigan shoreline. This is far south-central Sheboygan county.

Had 23F. when I went to bed at midnight. Woke up at 7am to 26.5. Noticed at 9am, we'd gone up to 33.2. Hit a high of 35.6 (probably about noon) and have now slid back to 34.7.

Wind is about 10-12 out of the E or slightly ENE. Looks like precip is about 90 minutes away.

[Harry]

Blizzard warning for all of se WI now as well.

[weatherbo]

FOR THE LAF CREW:

[MadTown]

blizzard warning all of southern wi

[Hoosier]

FOR THE LAF CREW:

I gotta believe that's overdone to some extent but obviously captures the trend well.

[janetjanet998]

18z NAm 24 hr precip after 06z

[IWXwx]

Off Topic: I wish this was for Chicago Aleking:

http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text

That's a forecast of 119"-155" between now and Tuesday. Of course, it is a mountain. I believe Alek's apartment is high enough that he'd still be able to see out his window.

[Sidewinder]

Anyone know if KIND will be issuing a headline in the near future?

[A-L-E-K]

18z NAm 24 hr precip after 06z

Looks like about .7 frozen here on that run, though i'm sure a tenth or two or pseudo dryslot ZR garbage. Either way a solid warning criteria snow still. Hanging by a thread.

[Chicago Storm]

[Hoosier]

Anyone know if KIND will be issuing a headline in the near future?

I gotta believe there will be something coming in the afternoon package.

[cyclone77]

Over 0.30" of rain now. Snow tried to mix in at times, but still mainly rain. Dry slot is only an hour or two away. Sure hope it slows down for you Chicago guys. Does look like you'll just make it. Even if it does the lake enhancement tomorrow should make up for it. For areas like Dekalb, Peoria, and the QC it looks more and more like 1-2".

[weatherbo]

Anyone know if KIND will be issuing a headline in the near future?

WILMINGTON in OH has issued an adv for 3-5".... assume IND will for N portions.

[janetjanet998]

Blizzard warning for me

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

213 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

DISCUSSION

ISSUED 213 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

MAJOR WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST

ILLINOIS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL ITS IMPACTS INTO SUNDAY

NIGHT. WHILE CHILLY RAINS ARE PRESENTLY OCCURRING ON THE FRONT

SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS...ACCUMULATING SNOWS...AND

BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ARE ON TAP FOR MANY AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO

SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM MOVES THROUGH. MAIN

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND TIMING/EXTENT OF ABOVE

MENTIONED WINTER STORM IMPACTS.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM OF THE

FORECAST. MOST HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF

THE CURRENT STORM...BRINGING CENTRAL ILLINOIS A LITTLE CLOSER TO

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. RECENT PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLETS

SUGGEST THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE

FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH

OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST BY

EARLY THIS EVENING. ALL OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD

CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS

THE AREA...A SEVERAL HOUR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY

UNTIL THE WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWFALL PUSHES IN LATE

TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A TIME IMMEDIATELY

AFTER FROPA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE

IS POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AHEAD OF THE

DEFORMATION ZONE SUGGEST A THICK LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THAT WILL

BE TOO WARM FOR MANY ICE CRYSTALS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS PRESENT IN

THIS MOIST LAYER TO PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL WRAP IN

FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SNOWFALL

WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY

AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. WINDS THIS STRONG SHOULD PRODUCE BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON

LINE WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SNOW AVAILABLE FOR THE WINDS TO

BLOW AROUND. SNOWFALL NORTH OF THIS LINE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF

2-3 INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE

TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTIVE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE DEFORMATION

BAND THAT COULD BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...UNLIKE OUR LAST

STORM ABOUT A WEEK AGO...THE PARAMETERS FOR BANDED SNOW DO NOT

LOOK AS FAVORABLE WITH THIS STORM.

DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A BLIZZARD

WARNING ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE...

WITH THE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM SUNDAY. THE BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM SUNRISE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON

WHEN THE HEAVIEST FALLING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. ADJUSTED THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE SAME TIME FRAME AND INCLUDED THE ENTIRE

FORECAST AREA.

[KeenerWx]

I gotta believe that's overdone to some extent but obviously captures the trend well.

Now that would be historical

[A-L-E-K]

This is a great map.