baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 This is fascinating to watch. My guess is that as the cA boundary and snowpack effects are analyzed every run, the bias is corrected, hence these very slow, small south adjustments every run. Part of the reason we're not seeing this on the RGEM and GGEM is because they both seemed to be a bit more aggressive with the cold air dome. Perhaps this is something in the model scheme? We saw this a couple of times last year too. Very fascinating, they keep shifting south but keep coming in more intense. The GFS shifted south again with the surface track but the 36 hour qpf is shifted well W and a tad north. Hopefully 0Z will settle on a solution. Very odd because current surface analysis is still N of all solutions and also more intense. Something will have to give sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 ya, im about 500 meters away give or take. The QEW is also maybe at max 1km north of me. you know how everyone says north of the 401 gets the good snows everyone south gets mix. well for me i can take that one further lol. everyone north of the QEW at least gets the sloppy 5-10cm while i get rain with a bit of wet snow. Yeah, you're right on the lakeshore aren't you? E-SE winds'll be ripping so yeah, you might have bigger bl temp issues there. Although if the 18z NAM is right, I'm not going to be much better off here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z gfs...prob about .50 for chicago of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looks like a bit of both, kinda trending towards a NAM scenario being not as fast. Through 30 hours, 1.25 of precip smack dab over KMKT, Oh boy this could be a nasty one. with the 14" already on the ground here and another 10 thats expected + the wind with this thing = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z really ramped up the defo band for chicago...... edit. Looks like .25-.50 has fallen in chicago frozen....with more to come I have heard all day how Chicago was getting massively dry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z gfs...prob about .50 for chicago of snow. pretty close to it anyway. GFS here shows maybe 1-2" of powdery fluff, thinking conservative I'll say a dusting to an inch right now, but will be following it as much as i can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 GFS shifted south -south west 18z precip (all snow this period for ORD with good ratios) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I have heard all day how Chicago was getting massively dry slotted well it's still a close call for the windy city Friv... looks like the edge of the dryslot gets maybe just inside the Tri-state Tollway, but downtown looks like it may be just short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 wow DVN LONG TERM ...POTENTIAL BLIZZARD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS...THEN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERVIEW...MODEL INITIALIZATION GOOD TO EXCELLENT AND VERIFICATION AT 18Z SUPPORTS USING A BLEND OF HI-RES ECMWF...UKMET...GEM-NH AND 18Z NAM-WRF. THIS RESULTS IN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DEEP OCCLUSION BY SUNDAY MORNING. TRENDS SUGGEST SOME FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED IN RUNS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLY A TIGHTER RATE OF OCCLUSION AND ALSO A SLIGHT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK TO THE SFC LOW. ALL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER A HALF DOZEN TECHNIQUES USED ON ALL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT 12 HOURS OR MORE OF NW WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH POSSIBLE. SOME TECHNIQUES SUGGEST ISOLATED GUSTS APPROACHING 70 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE DEEPENING OCCLUSION WILL MAKE FOR A STRONGER DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH ALL BUT HI-RES ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE UNDERPLAYING. THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE OTHER MODELS BASED ON THEIR BIASES LIKELY WILL BE HEAVIER ON QPF AMOUNTS AS THE RATE OF OCCLUSION IS BETTER CAPTURED. INTENSE CAA IN DEFORMATION ZONE WILL RESULT IN A POWDERY SNOW THAT IS IDEAL FOR BLOWING IN HIGH WINDS. LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES SUGGEST MOST THE FORECAST AREA IS SLATED TO PICK UP 2 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES IN NARROW BANDS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SLOW AS OFTEN IS THE CASE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD LAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND CHANGE LITTLE DUE TO STEADY TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I have heard all day how Chicago was getting massively dry slotted Yeah with the further south track northside would prob not get in on the dryslot.....mchenry county etc. pretty close to it anyway. GFS here shows maybe 1-2" of powdery fluff, thinking conservative I'll say a dusting to an inch right now, but will be following it as much as i can. Yeah prob the best way to play it, being that you would be on the tail end of the defo band.....still the trend seems to be rampen it up as it swings through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 wow DVN LONG TERM ...POTENTIAL BLIZZARD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS...THEN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERVIEW...MODEL INITIALIZATION GOOD TO EXCELLENT AND VERIFICATION AT 18Z SUPPORTS USING A BLEND OF HI-RES ECMWF...UKMET...GEM-NH AND 18Z NAM-WRF. THIS RESULTS IN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DEEP OCCLUSION BY SUNDAY MORNING. TRENDS SUGGEST SOME FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED IN RUNS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLY A TIGHTER RATE OF OCCLUSION AND ALSO A SLIGHT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK TO THE SFC LOW. ALL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER A HALF DOZEN TECHNIQUES USED ON ALL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT 12 HOURS OR MORE OF NW WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH POSSIBLE. SOME TECHNIQUES SUGGEST ISOLATED GUSTS APPROACHING 70 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE DEEPENING OCCLUSION WILL MAKE FOR A STRONGER DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH ALL BUT HI-RES ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE UNDERPLAYING. THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE OTHER MODELS BASED ON THEIR BIASES LIKELY WILL BE HEAVIER ON QPF AMOUNTS AS THE RATE OF OCCLUSION IS BETTER CAPTURED. INTENSE CAA IN DEFORMATION ZONE WILL RESULT IN A POWDERY SNOW THAT IS IDEAL FOR BLOWING IN HIGH WINDS. LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES SUGGEST MOST THE FORECAST AREA IS SLATED TO PICK UP 2 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES IN NARROW BANDS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SLOW AS OFTEN IS THE CASE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD LAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND CHANGE LITTLE DUE TO STEADY TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. I'm really sorry, I know some areas, but where is DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Even with the ul trending south, the GFS still manages to eject and ugly looking dry slot into mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yeah prob the best way to play it, being that you would be on the tail end of the defo band.....still the trend seems to be rampen it up as it swings through yeah plus with it being 18z, even though were so close I still always question 18z runs... the 0z runs tonight will be critical now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm really sorry, I know some areas, but where is DVN. Quad cites Davenport IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 wow DVN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER A HALF DOZEN TECHNIQUES USED ON ALL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT 12 HOURS OR MORE OF NW WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH POSSIBLE. SOME TECHNIQUES SUGGEST ISOLATED GUSTS APPROACHING 70 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. Our office rule of thumb is the number of isobars (standard 4 mb analysis) across the state of Iowa multiplied by 10. The models are trying to pack 7 isobars there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm really sorry, I know some areas, but where is DVN. Pretty close, GFS/NAM both develop potential for 62-65 to mix down, I think 60 would be a more realistic call though. I don't see a chance for 70 unless this deepens even more and the low level wind field strengthens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Correct me if I'm wrong here guys, but won't that need to start using that turn signal pretty soon or else the models COULD and I stress COULD bust too far north? http://weather.cod.edu/loops/ut-psl.loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 anyone have link to the 18z Ukmet..just want to see if it trended more SW and stronger too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Pretty close, GFS/NAM both develop potential for 62-65 to mix down, I think 60 would be a more realistic call though. I don't see a chance for 70 unless this deepens even more and the low level wind field strengthens. Which probably isn't out of the question considering the trends. Just looking at BUFKIT out there easily supports gusts over 50 mph. 70 mph could be pushing it but to be fair they did say isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Our office rule of thumb is the number of isobars (standard 4 mb analysis) across the state of Iowa multiplied by 10. The models are trying to pack 7 isobars there. Haha, I find that really funny. Is that the scientific way of figuring it out? BTW, not an attack or anything, just think its funny that METS would figure that out, and figure it out in a simple manner such as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z GFS is the mustard, neon relish and sport peppers to my Chicago weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z GFS is the mustard, neon relish and sport peppers to my Chicago weenie. I guess you need something to fill the donut hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 24 degrees here. Was only suppose to drop too 27 before rising tonight. Probably doesn't mean anything though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z GFS is the mustard, neon relish and sport peppers to my Chicago weenie. A LOADED DOG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 A LOADED DOG! If the 0z confirms, that will be the celery salt...then it's a loaded dog. Chicago style weenie jokes aside. I'm excited by the run and slow shifts south throughout the day, but the idea of south and stronger is a hard pill to swallow. I can't imagine the shallow snow packing would have that much influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 24 degrees here. Was only suppose to drop too 27 before rising tonight. Probably doesn't mean anything though Where is 'here'? You should add your location to your profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z GFS is the mustard, neon relish and sport peppers to my Chicago weenie. Trends are looking better for you. Just talked to my sister around Milwaukee...I took the plunge on a slightly more southern track and said that I anticipate MKE (she works at the airport) to have severely restricted operations at best on Sunday and possibly shut down. Of course the trends should continue to be watched very closely but it seems like the north one has been halted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Which probably isn't out of the question considering the trends. Just looking at BUFKIT out there easily supports gusts over 50 mph. 70 mph could be pushing it but to be fair they did say isolated. And the stronger these models come in the more impressive the def zone/TROWAL features will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Haha, I find that really funny. Is that the scientific way of figuring it out? BTW, not an attack or anything, just think its funny that METS would figure that out, and figure it out in a simple manner such as that. Well that's why it's a rule of thumb and not the forecast. But it works pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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