hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 997 mb low now along hw20 in between Fort Dodge and Webster City. Locations in NW Iowa now seeing heavy snow and gusts over 50 mph. I'm now seeing a lot more big snowflakes, although no big deal so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 we probably go to snow around 3z or so. I'd say the text output will spit out 4" or so for ORD and only because it's looking better and better on the defo band / LE. That large initial slug is going to be rain or mixy trash. Chicago won't start cranking until 18z sunday....not bad timing if i may say so myself. Bears forecast, moderate snow, gusts to 40+ GO PATS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 This is a tough forecast for Toronto. There could be 8-10" of snow or only 1-2" with rain mixed in. It could go either way. Right now, I'm going halfway, but leaning towards the lower snowfall spectrum. I'm going with 2-4", with more in the northern parts of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 MSP airport is making out pretty well this storm at 11.7". Yet my normally reliable spotters in Chaska and Carver are nowhere to be found. If the nws office has published their measurements, I sure can't find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 997 mb low now along hw20 in between Fort Dodge and Webster City. Locations in NW Iowa now seeing heavy snow and gusts over 50 mph. I'm now seeing a lot more big snowflakes, although no big deal so far. posted this is another thread. It's quite amazing. Amazing. eastern iowa is at 36f and western iowa at 9f shows how strong that cold air is. Look at the discrepencies from one end of the state to the other end, unreal how powerful it is. http://www.usairnet....wa/temperature/ http://www.usairnet....owa/wind-speed/ http://www.usairnet....owa/dew-points/ http://www.usairnet....etric-pressure/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 1200 PM SNOW MINNEAPOLIS 44.96N 93.27W 12/11/2010 M11.7 INCH HENNEPIN MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS STORM TOTAL AT KMSP AIRPORT...WITH 0.79 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. 6.8 INCHES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SNOW DRIFTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Those storms were awesome. I was still in college then, I remember those quick hitters. They were about a week apart...I had to give my synoptic discussions on them and I failed miserably. If you get time, will you explain why the models are trying to put out .15 or so tenths of precip over my area tomorrow, even though models are occluded with the lows and temps are really cold which I thought would dry things out. spme of the hi res models almost look like they show convective elements to things. It is easy to look at models and see some omega and RH and see qpf being generated, but I don't know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Very nice bright banding west and southwest of the Quad Cities. Probably some very nice dendrites aloft. Doesn't look it's making it down to the surface though, still a bit too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 This is one weird storm. Looking at the ptype from the GEM, if you loop it its really weird, but has been consistent, with the precip starting as rain well into WI and central MI, but by the time it reaches the Detroit area it is snow almost immediately. Really starting to think we see very little rain with this system. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html That's when the storm starts deepening actually and pulls in the colder air.. INTERESTING: On December 11, 2000, a powerful storm system moved east just south of Michigan, dumping heavy snow across all of the area, with some freezing rain and sleet near the Ohio border. Near blizzard conditions with up to 58 mph wind gusts were found across all of the area, with an outright blizzard in the Thumb. Many schools were closed for two to four days after the storm. Mail delivery the next day was spotty at best, and many businesses and government offices were closed. Specific snowfall amounts and impacts of the storm, by county... Bay: 8 to 10" in Bay City. Genesee: 12-14" fell, along with 4 foot drifts. Flint Bishop International Airport closed in the afternoon of the 11th, and ended up with 14", the third largest snowfall on record. Up to 200 cars were stranded on Interstate 75 just south of Flint during the storm. In Burton, the roof of a window manufacturing company collapsed. Huron: 16.2" in Port Hope. Lapeer: 12-16" near Lapeer (city), with 3 foot drifts. Interstate 69 was closed from Davison to Imlay City. Lenawee: 5.7" in Adrian with some freezing rain. Livingston: 10-15" with 3 to 5 foot drifts. Macomb: 12" across the county. Midland: 7 to 11" in Midland (city). Monroe: 8.5" just southeast of Milan; up to half an inch of freezing rain in Monroe with several trees downed due to ice and wind, and power outages. Oakland: 12" across the county. St Clair: 12.3" near Avoca; 14.7" in Ruby; 17.5" in Yale, 14" in Capac. In Port Huron, 12-20", closing the Blue Water Bridge to Canada. Saginaw: 11" in Frankenmuth with 3 foot drifts, roads drifted shut. MBS (Tri Cities) International Airport had many flights cancelled, and the airport was closed at 830 pm on the 11th. Sanilac: 13" in Brown City. Shiawassee: 15.5" in Morrice. Tuscola: 10-14" in Vassar. In Caro, 16.3" of snow fell with 4 foot drifts. An 18 car pile-up on the north side of town required snowmobiles to rescue stranded motorists. Washtenaw: 8-12" in Ann Arbor; closing Eastern Michigan University for only the second time ever. Wayne: 6-12" across the county; three-eighths inches of freezing rain in Rockwood; At Detroit Metropolitan Airport, 6.1" fell, with 197 departures and 165 arrivals were cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Very nice bright banding west and southwest of the Quad Cities. Probably some very nice dendrites aloft. Doesn't look it's making it down to the surface though, still a bit too warm. I'm not seeing any flakes out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 posted this is another thread. It's quite amazing. Amazing. eastern iowa is at 36f and western iowa at 9f shows how strong that cold air is. Look at the discrepencies from one end of the state to the other end, unreal how powerful it is. http://www.usairnet....wa/temperature/ http://www.usairnet....owa/wind-speed/ http://www.usairnet....owa/dew-points/ http://www.usairnet....etric-pressure/ Similar spread in MN with 30 in Winona and -2 with winds gusting to 21 in Warroad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Similar spread in MN with 30 in Winona and -2 with winds gusting to 21 in Warroad Yep, congrats to you. Over my way it's still up in the air, models are still going back and forth as to what may happen here, it is basically going to depend on how fast the cold air wraps in. we could see 2" or we could see 10" toughest forecast ive ever seen. But its pretty neat to watch the differences over that way. Just watching to see how fast the cold air takes over locations there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 1200 PM SNOW MINNEAPOLIS 44.96N 93.27W 12/11/2010 M11.7 INCH HENNEPIN MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS STORM TOTAL AT KMSP AIRPORT...WITH 0.79 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. 6.8 INCHES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SNOW DRIFTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. Definitely starting to pile up. Strong winds are really breaking apart the flakes aloft resulting in some really dusty and fine snow. Blows and drifts real easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 WRF pretty much goes bonkers with the LES... Can't wait to see Met Tech's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Those storms were awesome. I was still in college then, I remember those quick hitters. They were about a week apart...I had to give my synoptic discussions on them and I failed miserably. Definitely the best week in weather I've experienced. I remember spending much of that time discussing them on eastern as I had just joined there. MSP airport is making out pretty well this storm at 11.7". Yet my normally reliable spotters in Chaska and Carver are nowhere to be found. If the nws office has published their measurements, I sure can't find them. Just got an email from my parents saying they've got ridiculous drifting in the front yard... Claimed it was a four foot drift on the driveway against the garage (who knows if that accurate). But I'm glad to see the airport isn't lagging well behind chanhassen in the totals as often seems to be the case for one reason or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 WRF pretty much goes bonkers with the LES... Can't wait to see Met Tech's run. Running as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I don't know about areas north and east, but honestly this is impossible to measure...A rough estimate I would say around 6-7 inches so far...Visibility has been near 1/4 of a mile or less since about 7 AM..Awesome banding nearly stationary from just south of Mankato up towards the cities...and it's about to get more intense! The City of Mankato have pulled all the plows off the roads for the rest of the day and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Rain finally arriving now here, and 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 great pics! And yes, it will be hard to measure for everyone. You can forget about a snowboard in a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 10 minutes ago my snow(big flakes, widely spaced, no accumulation) briefly changed back to rain, but then it just started dumping heavy snow with smaller flakes. The ground is quickly turning white. My rain total was 0.53". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TruePatriot Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I am in blizzard warning now. Getting very nasty out, probably a foot of snow in accumulation. Going to get some video recorded in a bit. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN1105 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010. UPDATE...EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WARNING NORTHWARD ANOTHER TIER OR SO OF MNCOUNTIES. INCREASING NNE WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW LIFTINGINTO NE IA CAUSING WDSPRD VSBYS AOB 1/4SM. THIS MOVES BLIZZARDWARNING INTO THE S AND W TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND THEN TOWARDTHE WILLMAR AREA. WILL REVISIT THE EXPIRATION TIMES OF ALLWARNINGS IN THE AFTN FCST PACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I don't know about areas north and east, but honestly this is impossible to measure...A rough estimate I would say around 6-7 inches so far...Visibility has been near 1/4 of a mile or less since about 7 AM..Awesome banding nearly stationary from just south of Mankato up towards the cities...and it's about to get more intense! The City of Mankato have pulled all the plows off the roads for the rest of the day and night. Yes quite amazing pics, looks really foggy there in your last 2 pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 10 minutes ago my snow briefly changed back to rain, but then it just started dumping heavy snow with smaller flakes. The ground is quickly turning white. My rain total was 0.53". Be interesting to see how much snow you get, how long did it take the cold air to wrap in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Running as we speak Awesome I don't know about areas north and east, but honestly this is impossible to measure...A rough estimate I would say around 6-7 inches so far...Visibility has been near 1/4 of a mile or less since about 7 AM..Awesome banding nearly stationary from just south of Mankato up towards the cities...and it's about to get more intense! The City of Mankato have pulled all the plows off the roads for the rest of the day and night. Great pictures! Keep them coming while it's still light out. It might not be snowing here, but at least I can see good snow on the computer. Hey Ryan, what is your thoughts on the Lake Effect situation? I'm afraid to really say much of anything. It really all depends on where this low pressure ends up and how strong it ends up being. Right now lake instability looks great. However, I cannot seem to pull through the fact that the flow is going to be extraordinarily strong. Sure, that may help with inland penetration, but organization/strength/consolidation of a strong heavy band...ehh... As flow eases, I think this thing could rip (there's a window between easing of the flow and dry air infiltration that seems to be pretty favorable). Especially in SW Michigan/LaPorte/St. Joseph Counties. Right now my hunch is to go for moderate lake accumulations possible basically across the entire northern 1/3rd of Indiana. I'll look into it later, but I have to study for finals sometime. I'm already running 36 hours deep with no sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 10 minutes ago my snow(big flakes, widely spaced, no accumulation) briefly changed back to rain, but then it just started dumping heavy snow with smaller flakes. The ground is quickly turning white. My rain total was 0.53". Congrats! Should rip pretty good there for the next few hours until the dry slot arrives. At least it turned over soon enough that you'll get some bonus accumulations before it arrives. The bright banding around the QC continues to look more impressive. I would imagine if that continues we may start to see a changeover sooner than thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 If you get time, will you explain why the models are trying to put out .15 or so tenths of precip over my area tomorrow, even though models are occluded with the lows and temps are really cold which I thought would dry things out. spme of the hi res models almost look like they show convective elements to things. It is easy to look at models and see some omega and RH and see qpf being generated, but I don't know why. Massive wrap around. Actually not a TROWAL this time even though it looks like one. A little different dynamically. IN this case as the compact and intense PV anomaly "wraps" into itself as the main upper low tracks SE, regions of ascent/divergence aloft results in a flow field originating near the actual low level surface cyclone which flows into the upper low to compensate the mass divergence aloft. That is a pretty simplistic reasoning but it is pretty much what is physically happening. It is a massive comma head, and it is different than a TROWAL because there is no warm air wrapping around the cyclone in the mid-levels. It behaves differently and forms for differing reasons. Features like this are more typical of oceanic storms where the initial shortwave deepens rapidly and "wraps" into the main upper low, sometimes multiple times as the lack of low level friction can support deep circulations a lot longer. Land storms are typically dissipated much faster by boundary layer Ekman Pumping owing to friction in equivalent barotropic (stacked or nearly stacked non-baroclinic) lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The way this is unfolding, we will see some sort of winter weather headlines here in northwest Ohio later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 these are always way overdone, but it lends some credence to my 5-9" IMBY upgrade, which frankly i feel terrible about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Dubuque just went to snow rain snow line should be marching east along the WI/IL as time goes on KDBQ 111846Z 14006KT 1SM R36/3000V5000FT -SN BR OVC003 01/00 A2952 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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