Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

[janetjanet998]

what is the snowiest calender day storm in MSP history?

[MadTown]

unknown precip in dubuque ia

[hawkeye_wx]

what is the snowiest calender day storm in MSP history?

The 1991 Halloween blizzard dropped 21 inches in 24 hours and 28.4 inches total.

[TimChgo9]

So far, temps here were 30 at about 0600 or so , up to 32 by 0800, by 1000 we were at 36... we are now down to 33.8 degrees as of 1150. Rain is falling, with the occasional flake mixed in. We were forecast for 38, wondering if these are just temp anamolies, and we can expect to reach our high, or if they portend something else.

Other weather sensors in the area showing temp swings of roughly the same dimension.

[cyclone77]

what is the snowiest calender day storm in MSP history?

12/11/10.

[snowstormcanuck]

Looks real good, but these pres fall maps can be misleading sometimes. For instance, just last hour it looked like the best 3 hour pres falls were into extreme southern WI. I don't know if it's meteorologically sound, but I like to average the positions displayed on these maps over the course of 4-6 hours to get an idea of where the sfc low is actually heading.

[michsnowfreak]

So 12z GFS has about half inch qpf over DTW and NAM 1". That is a major difference. Also, something I DONT like is that MOS and Meteostar 2m temps look to be in the 33-35 range until tomorrow evening. Despite this, something I DO like is that despite this, both models bufr p-types show all snow except very briefly for an hour or two at onset. Wet/scenic snow that sticks to everything then freezes in place? I havent seen 12z GEM/EURO yet.

Basically, Im being cautious/optimistic/pessimistic. I had a fear 2 days ago that we would not have a full snowcover Monday. Yesterday I had an excitement in the back of my mind that we were likely going to see warning criteria snowfall. As of now, Im somewhere in the middle. Im quite confident there will be a solid snowcover, but not so much it will be of warning criteria. We shall see...

[turtlehurricane]

unknown precip in dubuque ia

Things will start earlier than projected then, if the leading band can't even manage to be rain.

[baroclinic_instability]

Looks real good, but these pres fall maps can be misleading sometimes. For instance, just last hour it looked like the best 3 hour pres falls were into extreme southern WI. I don't know if it's meteorologically sound, but I like to average the positions displayed on these maps over the course of 4-6 hours to get an idea of where the sfc low is actually heading.

Pressure fall maps alone can be real misleading since massive pressure falls can happen well away from the surface low.

Best idea is to loop both the pressure map and the tendency map together.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/analysis.sfccon.html

[janetjanet998]

if this is correct freeport IL now snow

FREEPORT* SNOW 35 33 92 E17

[turtlehurricane]

Center of low clearly between Ford Dodge and Webster City, as forecasted by the models that destroy southern WI

[csnavywx]

So far, temps here were 30 at about 0600 or so , up to 32 by 0800, by 1000 we were at 36... we are now down to 33.8 degrees as of 1150. Rain is falling, with the occasional flake mixed in. We were forecast for 38, wondering if these are just temp anamolies, and we can expect to reach our high, or if they portend something else.

Other weather sensors in the area showing temp swings of roughly the same dimension.

The fact that you have any flakes mixed in at all says something. The DVN 12Z sounding had quite the warm wedge at 925, but it was quite shallow and dry. With heavy enough precip, melting aloft gradually cools the column, until it attains an isothermal layer around 0C. The few flakes mixed in there suggest that it may not take much to cool the wedge, especially as we see stronger height falls and general cooling from uplift/omega.

[Moneyman]

Was about 36 degrees, now down to 34.5 and falling. Hopefully we can cool enough before that nice band in NE Iowa comes through.

I must say, the EURO pretty much nailed this system 5 days ago. Besides it's one off run, it's been taking the low through either N. IL or S. WI every run since then. This is why it's the best model around.

[Cyrys]

Using Chanhassen NWS numbers, combining last friday/saturdays storm with this it will make it the snowiest period in the area since the Feb. 24-March 2, 2007 storms which totaled just over 27 inches. Just in terms of snow, this winter reminds me of Nov./Dec. 1996. The airport totaled around 40 inches those months.

[OceanStWx]

if this is correct freeport IL now snow

FREEPORT* SNOW 35 33 92 E17

Just got off the phone with the office now. Anamosa, Shellsburg and Farmington have all switched over to snow in Iowa. We're definitely raining in Davenport though.

[hawkeye_wx]

if this is correct freeport IL now snow

FREEPORT* SNOW 35 33 92 E17

That must be wrong because there is no precip near Freeport. Other sites in the area are reporting fog so I'm guessing that's what Freeport is really seeing. Sometimes the small stations mistakenly show "snow", don't know why.

[baroclinic_instability]

Was about 36 degrees, now down to 34.5 and falling. Hopefully we can cool enough before that nice band in NE Iowa comes through.

I must say, the EURO pretty much nailed this system 5 days ago. Besides it's one off run, it's been taking the low through either N. IL or S. WI every run since then. This is why it's the best model around.

It didn't do too bad. NAM was too far N but also didn't do too bad as most models yesterday tried to take it well S, NAM held on to a slower solution near the MN/IA border.

[A-L-E-K]

12z hi-res still give hope.

[baroclinic_instability]

Using Chanhassen NWS numbers, combining last friday/saturdays storm with this it will make it the snowiest period in the area since the Feb. 24-March 2, 2007 which totaled just over 27 inches. Just in terms of snow, this winter reminds of Nov./Dec. 1996. The airport totaled around 40 inches those months.

Those storms were awesome. I was still in college then, I remember those quick hitters. They were about a week apart...I had to give my synoptic discussions on them and I failed miserably.

[cyclone77]

That must be wrong because there is no precip near Freeport. Other sites in the area are reporting fog so I'm guessing that's what Freeport is really seeing. Sometimes the small stations mistakenly show "snow", don't know why.

Cedar Rapids reporting rain/snow mix. Seeing any flakes out there yet?

You can see the edge of the cold air pretty well on radar. It's on the leading edge of that secondary area of precip from just east of Mt. Pleasant to Washington.

[hawkeye_wx]

Just got off the phone with the office now. Anamosa, Shellsburg and Farmington have all switched over to snow in Iowa. We're definitely raining in Davenport though.

It has been pouring rain for a few hours, but it is finally beginning to switch to snow. My rain total is nearly up to a half inch. Just what I love in mid December, good rain... NOT.

[KeenerWx]

Well, ended up making the trek back up to hometown. Defines a true weenie, especially when I have a final on Monday. Hopefully my drive back isn't too terrible, but I feel its going to be less than desirable. I know I will not see anything above 4-6", yet, combined with strong winds, it's worth the trip. I love winter.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Bowme gets destroyed according to these... We aren't looking that bad either..

12z hi-res still give hope.

[A-L-E-K]

major slug of precip on my doorstep, going to be a soggy afternoon.

[snowstormcanuck]

Pressure fall maps alone can be real misleading since massive pressure falls can happen well away from the surface low.

Best idea is to loop both the pressure map and the tendency map together.

http://weather.cod.e...sis.sfccon.html

Ok, thanks.

[tongboy]

From LOT -

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST

ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT...AND TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES

SUNDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE

LOW...ACROSS COLD AND SNOWY GROUND IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR

CIGS AND VISIBILITIES...THOUGH VISIBILITY WONT BE IMPACTED QUITE

AS MUCH OVER URBAN AREAS AS IN OUTLYING AREAS. RADAR INDICATING

RAIN SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTH. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CHICAGO

AREA OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST. RAIN

SHOULD DIMINISH AND MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT. DRY

AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND MAY

ALLOW FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR FOR A TIME. VISIBILITY SHOULD

IMPROVE A BIT AS PRECIP DIMINISHES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO

NORTHERN IL...BRINGING AND END TO THE EVAPORATION OF SNOW PACK.

BY 12-13Z THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE IN/MI BORDER

AND VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP. HEAVY SNOW BAND WRAPPING

AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN IL. MAY SEE

VISIBILITY 1/2 MILE TO A MILE AT TIMES MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY

AFTERNOON BEFORE SNOW DIMINISHES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH

WINDS MAY GUST TO OVER 40 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALLSOPP

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VSBY

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TRANSITION TO SNOW AND POSSIBLE

FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PASSES OVER CHICAGO

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND SNOW SUNDAY

[Nelson]

Where did Dec 8-9 track last year? That was supposed to be a big snow producer up here and I got 4 inches cement. Madison cashed out.

Here is the track from Dec8-9 of 2009. That was more of a panhandle hook type storm.. I don't know how much effect the lake will have on our temps this time around as the cold air appears to sweep in rather quickly (and we don't have to wait for the LP to get north and east of us for all snow like we did last year). That said, I think we'll still end up at the lower end of the forecasts - NWS is saying 9-13 up this way with less near the lake. I'm going with 7-8 imby but it all depends on temps. I think someone just west and north of me pushes the 14-16 in mark when all said and done.

[KeenerWx]

major slug of precip on my doorstep, going to be a soggy afternoon.

Yeah, it's pretty gross out there. Snow looks a little short of picturesque. Definitely ready for a fresh layer.

[Natester]

Heavy snow right now. Right on que.

[michsnowfreak]

This is one weird storm. Looking at the ptype from the GEM, if you loop it its really weird, but has been consistent, with the precip starting as rain well into WI and central MI, but by the time it reaches the Detroit area it is snow almost immediately. Really starting to think we see very little rain with this system.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html