buckeye Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm still trying to figure out what happened to the secondary development over VA/PA a lot of the models were indicating 36 hours ago. Seems like right now it's just the primary tracking through Lk Erie/NY and that's all she wrote. I know there's a bias with models for transferring energy from primaries too quickly, but the fact that this thing occluded so early would have made me think a transfer was more likely. maybe some mets can clarify, but i would think when we lose that tight digging ULL to a more open trough, a secondary development would be less likely and the main low would move out much quicker... ....i'm guessing on that. but thats the trend i'm seeing with these recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wide band of 60-65kt wind at 925mb near the Mississippi at 12z per latest GFS. 70mph winds just 1500ft up. 55-65mph wind gusts combined with at least moderate snow should make blizzard conditions easily verify in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I think you and I will likely be dry slotted by then. It seems a bit aggressive on the radar over Iowa. Agree as well, i think we hit the dryslot pretty much right after our changover This is our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm still trying to figure out what happened to the secondary development over VA/PA a lot of the models were indicating 36 hours ago. Seems like right now it's just the primary tracking through Lk Erie/NY and that's all she wrote. I know there's a bias with models for transferring energy from primaries too quickly, but the fact that this thing occluded so early would have made me think a transfer was more likely. isnt that usually the case in la nina's, stronger primaries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 One note about Detroit, still Hazy and foggy in my area, right around freezing temp. This could keep the temps colder, as the expected high is 38 or so, might make a difference tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Final call...1-3" in my backyard. Maybe a little additional lake effect... Luckily I'm up in Gaylord, MI and will luckily miss out on what would have just been another dissapointment. doesn't that go against everything your forecast office is predicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Finally some precip in Madison, mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain reported since 8 am. It's just wet out there really. Real storm won't start till this evening from the looks of it, but when it does it's gonna be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It seems that LOT is looking for most of the qpf to fall as liquid.. .The forecast is for rain and then mix into the overnight with no new accumulation, and only 1-3" by the end of the day Sunday. Contrast that with Skilling's call for nearly 11" by Monday morning. I am watching sat maps and the radar watching things unfold now, right now, the low is in NW IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 One note about Detroit, still Hazy and foggy in my area, right around freezing temp. This could keep the temps colder, as the expected high is 38 or so, might make a difference tonight. We actually have sunshine in Detroit proper, but there is plenty of haze to go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/SWRN WI...SCNTRL/ECNTRL/SERN MN AND NWRN/NCNTRL/NERN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 111556Z - 112100Z HEAVY SNOWBANDS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SEWD THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT HOURLY RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN A 75-100 MILE CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM SPENCER IA-30NW ROCHESTER MN-35N WAUSAU WI THROUGH 00Z. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE NCNTRL IA 1000 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ESE INTO STRONGEST PRESSURE FALL AXIS TO NWRN IL BY 00Z. LATE MORNING MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWBANDS ALONG/NW OF THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH FROM THE MSP AREA SWWD TO NWRN IA WILL CORRESPONDINGLY SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL IA INTO THE SERN THIRD OF MN AND WCNTRL WI. SNOWBANDS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND NARROW AS STRONGEST 700-500 MB UVV SPREADS ATOP MESOSCALE FORCING AND 1-1.5 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 GFS looks like it'll be a hair colder for Toronto but we'll still likely see a changeover to rain. NAM is nuts keeping us all snow and 10" worth. If we had an antecedent arctic airmass in place the NAM may have been right, but alas we do not. The changeover line is going to be real close, even following the RGEM/GFS camp. A further slight shift south could make this interesting, but it's low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 SIOUX CITY HVY SNOW 10 5 80 NW35G53 29.80R VSB 1/4 WCI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 doesn't that go against everything your forecast office is predicting? In this case...yes. I never get too excited about getting dry slotted and then counting on the TROWAL/Defo band to hold together as the system occludes. The 1-3" is just for the synoptic event. Maybe some additional amounts when that band nudges eastward Sunday night into Monday. I hope the office is right. I'm just drinkin and snow mobiling up here...so what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Sloppy, rainy mess for the rest of the weekend, with a flash freeze by Sunday afternoon.... gonna go out and get more salt... gonna need it. Area wide skating rink for Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 GFS looks like it'll be a hair colder for Toronto but we'll still likely see a changeover to rain. NAM is nuts keeping us all snow and 10" worth. If we had an antecedent arctic airmass in place the NAM may have been right, but alas we do not. The changeover line is going to be real close, even following the RGEM/GFS camp. A further slight shift south could make this interesting, but it's low probability. how do you get 850s on the RGEM? is there a map/link/site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 In this case...yes. I never get too excited about getting dry slotted and then counting on the TROWAL/Defo band to hold together as the system occludes. The 1-3" is just for the synoptic event. Maybe some additional amounts when that band nudges eastward Sunday night into Monday. I hope the office is right. I'm just drinkin and snow mobiling up here...so what do I know Well have fun up there! I hope you're wrong and come home to at least 6" of snow. I'm riding the IWX wagon for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 We must have had a mixed bag. The snow was very dense, slushy, and the shovel had a layer of ice on it when i picked it up. Maybe 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It seems that LOT is looking for most of the qpf to fall as liquid.. .The forecast is for rain and then mix into the overnight with no new accumulation, and only 1-3" by the end of the day Sunday. Contrast that with Skilling's call for nearly 11" by Monday morning. I am watching sat maps and the radar watching things unfold now, right now, the low is in NW IA 4-5 is probably most likely north and east (LE), with 1-3 south and west. I was thinking the high end amounts might verify like Skilling, but per the 9z SREFs a nasty warm tounge keeps most of the area rain until at least 6z, so those calls are in trouble. Recent trends also accelerate the low eastward which would shorten the duration of our defo snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 i'm bumping my IMBY call of 2-5" up to 5-9" although 40+ mph winds will make measuring impossible. Bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 dynamic cooling continues to turning precip to snow over northern into eastern IA DAVENPORT MIX PCPN 35 33 92 SE20 IOWA FALLS * SNOW 32 32 100 SW14 MARSHALLTOWN SNOW 31 29 92 SW18 DECORAH * LGT SNOW 36 32 87 E6 29.64F WCI 31 DUBUQUE MIX PCPN 32 31 96 SE13G24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Bullish. It was probably a mistake, but i'll ride it in case the lake over performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 We must have had a mixed bag. The snow was very dense, slushy, and the shovel had a layer of ice on it when i picked it up. Maybe 3 inches Not bad for being warm sector precip though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 We must have had a mixed bag. The snow was very dense, slushy, and the shovel had a layer of ice on it when i picked it up. Maybe 3 inches Radar was showing yellows and oranges just to your west much of the morning, and the se mn reporting stations mainly reported mixed precip or freezing rain for much of that time. I wasn't sure about La Crosse, as their hourly observations listed snow for most of the early morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Overnight and into tomorrow for eastern IA, southern WI, and northern IL, I wonder if the wind speeds during the accumulating snowfall will be enough to have the 'blast effect' on the snowflakes, where areas end up with a decent amount of qpf, but actual accumulation is tempered. In other words, slightly lowered accumulation tallies not just because it will be blowing around in general but because the flakes will end up being pulverized in their descent. Or are the high winds really not expected until after the majority of our precipitation falls? I am leaving shortly and will be down in Newark, IL (roughly twelve miles north of I-80 and 25 miles east of I-39) overnight and returning to Woodstock around 10:30 a.m. tomorrow morning. I am heading towards an area more likely to get dry slotted, but then again, the 45 miles back north through mostly open farm country on Rt. 47 should be a real treat. Like has been said, it doesn't take much accumulation to get things dicey with the winds expected, so I am expecting that will be the primary element of concern more so than actual accumulations. That said, I will throw out a call for 1-3" in Newark by my departure time at 10:30 a.m. tomorrow and a 4-7" total in Woodstock. Thanks for all of the analysis and chatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 1014 AM SNOW OAKDALE 44.99N 92.97W 12/11/2010 M11.0 INCH WASHINGTON MN TRAINED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yeah...it was mainly snow from what i can tell Be good snow for making frosty the snowman... 29F here and 38F in Milwaukee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 HPC gives me a 10% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 how do you get 850s on the RGEM? is there a map/link/site? You used to be able to get them off the PSU site, but the RGEM doesn't update there anymore. I was describing what the RGEM showed in terms of p-type from this instead: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html ^^^I'm pretty sure you already know about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm still waiting for Chanhassen to release some totals from their office, but right now the closest observed total to me is 10.5" across the river in Shakopee. The highest total so far is 11" in Oakdale which is in the east metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 precip increasing over SE ia..almost looks like it wants to turn to heavy wet snow..should move into the quad cites soon also maybe sleet in centralIL..danville is reporting sleet if the awos is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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