weatherbo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Obviously the storm effects will be quite lame here compared to what happens up north, but an interesting thing could happen tomorrow in LAF. As the front and 500 hits, our temps should crash, but as the 500 low moves east, a warm spike may very well happen tomorrow afternoon. Matter of fact I could see us hit the mid 30's for awhile...while places south of here are 10 degrees colder. That's about all I got. With IWX projecting the low to travel basically right over Laf, as dynamic as it is, don't count out a surprise or two. With wind and snow combined, I'd expect at least an adv there later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Obviously the storm effects will be quite lame here compared to what happens up north, but an interesting thing could happen tomorrow in LAF. As the front and 500 hits, our temps should crash, but as the 500 low moves east, a warm spike may very well happen tomorrow afternoon. Matter of fact I could see us hit the mid 30's for awhile...while places south of here are 10 degrees colder. That's about all I got. Alright dude, based on the 9z SREFs, hi-res and 12z NAM all showing a nice defo band across the area, i'm bumping my IMBY call of 2-5" up to 5-9" although 40+ mph winds will make measuring impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Alright dude, based on the 9z SREFs, hi-res and 12z NAM all showing a nice defo band across the area, i'm bumping my IMBY call of 2-5" up to 5-9" although 40+ mph winds will make measuring impossible. alek upped his call....the kiss of death j/k!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 12Z NAM spits out 1.10 for ORD with half coming by hour 12 (which is probably liquid) and 1.53 for MKE I think we go over to snow around 3z (btwn hr 12-18). If we get lucky, we'll see some convection and have dynamic cooling give us a heard start closer to 0z, but i'm not holding my breath on that one, if we get an inch before dryslot, i'll be surprised. BTW i still thing defo band snows are slightly underdone on the NAM, esp lakeside counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Obviously the storm effects will be quite lame here compared to what happens up north, but an interesting thing could happen tomorrow in LAF. As the front and 500 hits, our temps should crash, but as the 500 low moves east, a warm spike may very well happen tomorrow afternoon. Matter of fact I could see us hit the mid 30's for awhile...while places south of here are 10 degrees colder. That's about all I got. Interesting. I remember something like that happening last winter with a strong clipper. Temps crashed in southern Iowa and Missouri, and remained much warmer to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Alright dude, based on the 9z SREFs, hi-res and 12z NAM all showing a nice defo band across the area, i'm bumping my IMBY call of 2-5" up to 5-9" although 40+ mph winds will make measuring impossible. gutsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Obviously the storm effects will be quite lame here compared to what happens up north, but an interesting thing could happen tomorrow in LAF. As the front and 500 hits, our temps should crash, but as the 500 low moves east, a warm spike may very well happen tomorrow afternoon. Matter of fact I could see us hit the mid 30's for awhile...while places south of here are 10 degrees colder. That's about all I got. no snow for LAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 alek upped his call....the kiss of death j/k!! ha! I think the support is there is step out a limb a little. I still feel like i'm playing it safe by A-discounting any snow with the initial slug and B-counting on 6-10 hr dryslot. A decent defo band looks like a safe bet and this just doesn't scream 2" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 gutsy you know I go big and since none of the other Chicago posters are making a call, someone has to get the weenies going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 take a look at this foreast from a blog I visited! http://scglweather.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 ha! I think the support is there is step out a limb a little. I still feel like i'm playing it safe by A-discounting any snow with the initial slug and B-counting on 6-10 hr dryslot. A decent defo band looks like a safe bet and this just doesn't scream 2" to me. You think there is still any chance that the dryslut misses us to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Alright dude, based on the 9z SREFs, hi-res and 12z NAM all showing a nice defo band across the area, i'm bumping my IMBY call of 2-5" up to 5-9" although 40+ mph winds will make measuring impossible. stick with the 2-5"...safer call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 You think there is still any chance that the dryslut misses us to the south? depends what you mean by miss. Here's what i think goes down, far NW areas (RFD like chicago wx mentioned) may hang onto light snow, just south of there (think northern tier or two) light freezing drizzle, flurries and a 4-6 hr period of more or less nothing. I don't think there is any way we go to snow at the tail end of the initial batch and keep snowing until the defo band pivots through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Some elevated thunderstorms near STL, looks like there's some elevated conditional instability being transported north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 7.1" report 2 miles southwest of St. Paul. My brother texted with a 6" total from Minnetonka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 HRRR FWIW. Shows some interesting looking convective elements inside the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 NAM is great with LES showing up down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Looks like all the reporting stations in SE MN have changed over to snow. And the pressure is still dropping in Algona Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 MKE lowered my totals to 3-6. My 2-5 call lookin good. Lake gonna eat my snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Having a Christmas party today, might just set up the laptop with the Minnesota St. - Mankato webcam running: http://www.mnsu.edu/weather/skycam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 take a look at this foreast from a blog I visited! http://scglweather.blogspot.com/ another gutsy call i could see ottawa getting anywhere from 2 to as much as say 8 inches.... its important to see today if we see any cold air try to work back in the upper ottawa valley. if we had any cold air around, ottawa would have done very well with this storm, but with no high , no CAD and a low in northern quebec, well thats no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Where in Muskegon are you at? Lived between there and Grand Haven for about 14 years. I really miss the lake effect! Hey, I live in Norton Shores...I'm guessing close to where you lived then. Did you like this area? I moved here about a year and a half ago. Do you remember some good lake effect storms in the Muskegon area when you lived here? Unfortunately we haven't really had any good Southwest flow lake effect events which is when it seems we'd cash in the most. (We got about 8 to 10 inches from the lake effect last weekend though) and are expecting 1 to 2 feet this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I haven't been looking at the winds over the past few hours, but the latest observation out of Worthington showed a 48 mph gust. Gusts in the msp metro are in the upper 20's to around 30 mph, while gusts in S. MN are mainly between 30-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 24hr precip 9z SREF at hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 14z RUC (i know its the RUC LOL) takes 850mb low stronger and slighly furhter south then 12z NAM....about over Springfield IL....ORD barely dryslotted..may for a couple of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 644 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0633 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND 40.92N 98.37W 12/11/2010 M62 MPH HALL NE ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 14z RUC (i know its the RUC LOL) takes 850mb low stronger and slighly furhter south then 12z NAM....about over Springfield IL....ORD barely dryslotted..may for a couple of hours I've pretty much lost interest in the dryslot, even if i miss the worst, it's not going to be cold enough for real snow around here until the defo pulls through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Today: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after noon. Temperature falling to around 27 by 5pm. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around 1 inch. Tonight: Snow and widespread blowing snow. Low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a north wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 30 and 35 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 5 inches. Sunday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow before noon, then areas of blowing snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a temperature falling to around 2 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -20. Windy, with a north wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Night: Clear and blustery, with a low around -11. Wind chill values as low as -30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The new RGEM looks a bit quicker with the deform precip tomorrow, which doesn't make much sense. Think it may be moving things along a bit too quickly given the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Shut off here for a little bit. She's really wrapping up on radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.