Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Central/Western States

Recommended Posts

weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted

Obviously the storm effects will be quite lame here compared to what happens up north, but an interesting thing could happen tomorrow in LAF. As the front and 500 hits, our temps should crash, but as the 500 low moves east, a warm spike may very well happen tomorrow afternoon. Matter of fact I could see us hit the mid 30's for awhile...while places south of here are 10 degrees colder. That's about all I got. arrowheadsmiley.png

With IWX projecting the low to travel basically right over Laf, as dynamic as it is, don't count out a surprise or two. With wind and snow combined, I'd expect at least an adv there later today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 987
  • Created
  • Last Reply
A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Obviously the storm effects will be quite lame here compared to what happens up north, but an interesting thing could happen tomorrow in LAF. As the front and 500 hits, our temps should crash, but as the 500 low moves east, a warm spike may very well happen tomorrow afternoon. Matter of fact I could see us hit the mid 30's for awhile...while places south of here are 10 degrees colder. That's about all I got. arrowheadsmiley.png

Alright dude, based on the 9z SREFs, hi-res and 12z NAM all showing a nice defo band across the area, i'm bumping my IMBY call of 2-5" up to 5-9" although 40+ mph winds will make measuring impossible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

12Z NAM spits out 1.10 for ORD with half coming by hour 12 (which is probably liquid)

and 1.53 for MKE

I think we go over to snow around 3z (btwn hr 12-18). If we get lucky, we'll see some convection and have dynamic cooling give us a heard start closer to 0z, but i'm not holding my breath on that one, if we get an inch before dryslot, i'll be surprised. BTW i still thing defo band snows are slightly underdone on the NAM, esp lakeside counties.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Obviously the storm effects will be quite lame here compared to what happens up north, but an interesting thing could happen tomorrow in LAF. As the front and 500 hits, our temps should crash, but as the 500 low moves east, a warm spike may very well happen tomorrow afternoon. Matter of fact I could see us hit the mid 30's for awhile...while places south of here are 10 degrees colder. That's about all I got. arrowheadsmiley.png

Interesting. I remember something like that happening last winter with a strong clipper. Temps crashed in southern Iowa and Missouri, and remained much warmer to the north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

Obviously the storm effects will be quite lame here compared to what happens up north, but an interesting thing could happen tomorrow in LAF. As the front and 500 hits, our temps should crash, but as the 500 low moves east, a warm spike may very well happen tomorrow afternoon. Matter of fact I could see us hit the mid 30's for awhile...while places south of here are 10 degrees colder. That's about all I got. arrowheadsmiley.png

no snow for LAF?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ILSNOW

ILSNOW

Posted
Posted

ha!

I think the support is there is step out a limb a little. I still feel like i'm playing it safe by A-discounting any snow with the initial slug and B-counting on 6-10 hr dryslot. A decent defo band looks like a safe bet and this just doesn't scream 2" to me.

You think there is still any chance that the dryslut misses us to the south?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

You think there is still any chance that the dryslut misses us to the south?

depends what you mean by miss. Here's what i think goes down, far NW areas (RFD like chicago wx mentioned) may hang onto light snow, just south of there (think northern tier or two) light freezing drizzle, flurries and a 4-6 hr period of more or less nothing. I don't think there is any way we go to snow at the tail end of the initial batch and keep snowing until the defo band pivots through.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

take a look at this foreast from a blog I visited!

http://scglweather.blogspot.com/

another gutsy call

i could see ottawa getting anywhere from 2 to as much as say 8 inches....

its important to see today if we see any cold air try to work back in the upper ottawa valley.

if we had any cold air around, ottawa would have done very well with this storm, but with no high , no CAD and a low in northern quebec, well thats no good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

Where in Muskegon are you at? Lived between there and Grand Haven for about 14 years. I really miss the lake effect!

Hey, I live in Norton Shores...I'm guessing close to where you lived then. :) Did you like this area? I moved here about a year and a half ago. Do you remember some good lake effect storms in the Muskegon area when you lived here? Unfortunately we haven't really had any good Southwest flow lake effect events which is when it seems we'd cash in the most. (We got about 8 to 10 inches from the lake effect last weekend though) and are expecting 1 to 2 feet this weekend!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cyrys

Cyrys

Posted
Posted

I haven't been looking at the winds over the past few hours, but the latest observation out of Worthington showed a 48 mph gust. Gusts in the msp metro are in the upper 20's to around 30 mph, while gusts in S. MN are mainly between 30-40.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
oldlogin

oldlogin

Posted
Posted

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE

644 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0633 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND 40.92N 98.37W

12/11/2010 M62 MPH HALL NE ASOS

Link to comment
Share on other sites
A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

14z RUC (i know its the RUC LOL) takes 850mb low stronger and slighly furhter south then 12z NAM....about over Springfield IL....ORD barely dryslotted..may for a couple of hours

I've pretty much lost interest in the dryslot, even if i miss the worst, it's not going to be cold enough for real snow around here until the defo pulls through.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Natester

Natester

Posted
Posted

Today: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after noon. Temperature falling to around 27 by 5pm. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around 1 inch.

Tonight: Snow and widespread blowing snow. Low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a north wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 30 and 35 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 5 inches.

Sunday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow before noon, then areas of blowing snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a temperature falling to around 2 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -20. Windy, with a north wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday Night: Clear and blustery, with a low around -11. Wind chill values as low as -30.

:thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...