Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

[ILSNOW]

MKE will start slow, but they look to get smoked in the defo band.

Nam crushes Wisconsin

[A-L-E-K]

that is one massive drysot being depicted bt the NAM

It's been there every run, we're very close to avoiding it, but need a couple more jogs south.

[Chicago WX]

Jainesville on north is my early guess.

WI/IL border looks like a good line. If one believes the 12z NAM, RFD or just west avoid the dry slot just about completely. Could be a pick for top dog in the LOT CWA.

[csnavywx]

Jainesville on north is my early guess.

Probably, they did this last year on the Dec. 8/9 storm too.

NAM came in south and stronger again in the mid-upper levels. Coming a bit closer to the GFS in that regard. Dry slot still very close.

[ILSNOW]

It's been there every run, we're very close to avoiding it, but need a couple more jogs south.

looks like it spits out about an inch for chicago, you think half of that will be frozen?

[A-L-E-K]

WI/IL border looks like a good line. If one believes the 12z NAM, RFD or just west avoid the dry slot just about completely. Could be a pick for top dog in the LOT CWA.

When it's a rain to snow event, RFD is always the smart pick. The hi-res give me some hope for making a late run though.

[janetjanet998]

dynamic cooling may be changing the rain to sleet/snow in the lead band over IA...per bright returns on DSM radar

confirmed

14z

DES MOINES SNOW 34 31 88 W17 29.57R VSB 1/2 WCI 23

[A-L-E-K]

looks like it spits out about an inch for chicago, you think half of that will be frozen?

we probably go to snow around 3z or so. I'd say the text output will spit out 4" or so for ORD and only because it's looking better and better on the defo band / LE. That large initial slug is going to be rain or mixy trash. Chicago won't start cranking until 18z sunday....not bad timing if i may say so myself.

Bears forecast, moderate snow, gusts to 40+

[Chicago WX]

When it's a rain to snow event, RFD is always the smart pick. The hi-res give me some hope for making a late run though.

And that's what I'm banking my 4-8" for you on primarily. Somewhat risky I suppose, but I think there is enough of a LE potential to add up the inches quite quickly.

[Thundersnow12]

look at that baroclinic zone in nw IA into SD...wow.

family going to get our xmas tree shortly, anyone down to text me updates, feel free to PM and il give you my number lol

[Cyrys]

No.. As said that's me.

However i think there is those who just enjoy watching the weather itself if you get what i am saying? You like severe wx/chasing? It is weather too and depending on ones view fun to follow/track and or chase. I have not chased but enjoy it all as well. I enjoy tropical systems as much an follow them even though such systems are not common to this area.

Alright, all's good. I read too much into it.

A few more 6 inch totals coming in across the msp metro. The lowest pressure is still Algona, Iowa at 998.3.

[A-L-E-K]

And that's what I'm banking my 4-8" for you on primarily. Somewhat risky I suppose, but I think there is enough of a LE potential to add up the inches quite quickly.

12z NAM looks to give .45 or so all snow and the rest mixy, so you're call is looking good.

[janetjanet998]

ALGONA IA 998.33mb

[Harry]

Alright, all's good. I read too much into it.

A few more 6 inch totals coming in across the msp metro. The lowest pressure is still Algona, Iowa at 998.3.

It is cool. Happens on forums alot.

Hopefully we see some pics soon.

[Thundersnow12]

differences in qpf between the 0z and 12z NAM for the 36hr period

12z

0z

[Chicago WX]

^^^ Yeah, NAM brings 1.00"+ to Chicago now, obviously not all snow, but I'd venture to guess 1/2 of that could be without seeing the particulars.

[Thundersnow12]

KSHL 111355Z AUTO 34023G31KT 1/4SM +SN OVC003 M09/M11 A2967 RMK AO2

[Thundersnow12]

best p-falls over nw IL

[Omahawx]

yes i know, its 850 mb winds..but look at this...850 mb winds of over 70 knots in extreme eastern nebraska

[A-L-E-K]

best p-falls over nw IL

Looks like we're going to have a large comma shaped low with the head passing right between i80 and i88.

[TugHillMatt]

I thought the low tracking up to towards where it is then tracking east was the northern track . I stand corrected then. I already posted that my mentioning your name was not reallly necessary.

With all due respect, you probably should have deleted that post. Once we say something, the words are already out and we can't take them back. (And a reaction from the individual is to be expected when such notions are made)

[Powerball]

This thing's getting very juciy now with the gulf flexing its muscle, granted it's as already considerably moist with the (continuing) conveyor belt of water from the pacific.

I suspect we'll even have an atlantic connection tomorrow, which could turn out interesting for those in the eastern lakes with the low potentially bombing out again (or at the least renewed cyclonegenesis).

[Cyrys]

Here are a couple pics from the storm, the first from around 1 this morning, the 2nd from 15 minutes ago.

[cyclone77]

Here near the QC area it looks like we'll get a little payback for scoring with the last clipper. Even with everything slowly shifting south, we get dry slotted for over 6hrs. My 3-5" for the area last night may have to be tweaked down. NAM only gives us around a quarter inch after the changeover.

[A-L-E-K]

Here near the QC area it looks like we'll get a little payback for scoring with the last clipper. Even with everything slowly shifting south, we get dry slotted for over 6hrs. My 3-5" for the area last night may have to be tweaked down. NAM only gives us around a quarter inch after the changeover.

[ArmyGreens]

With all due respect, you probably should have deleted that post. Once we say something, the words are already out and we can't take them back. (And a reaction from the individual is to be expected when such notions are made)

Where in Muskegon are you at? Lived between there and Grand Haven for about 14 years. I really miss the lake effect!

[WxMidwest]

^{Crazy Earl Barker Maps with 06z runs...}

[A-L-E-K]

9z SREFs turn the low SE form NW Illinois and looks pretty good defo band wise for Chicago.

[ILSNOW]

12Z NAM spits out 1.10 for ORD with half coming by hour 12 (which is probably liquid)

and 1.53 for MKE

[Chicago WX]

Obviously the storm effects will be quite lame here compared to what happens up north, but an interesting thing could happen tomorrow in LAF. As the front and 500 hits, our temps should crash, but as the 500 low moves east, a warm spike may very well happen tomorrow afternoon. Matter of fact I could see us hit the mid 30's for awhile...while places south of here are 10 degrees colder. That's about all I got.