Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

[janetjanet998]

dynamic cooling may be changing the rain to sleet/snow in the lead band over IA...per bright returns on DSM radar

[Omahawx]

45-50 MPH wind gust here..15 degree temp and snow falling ..looking like a blizzard outside my window this morning

[goknights]

Switching back to snow here in southeast minnesota

[Cyrys]

Sorry but that was not needed. Same goes for the other. Sorry if i call things as i see it and they are not to someones pleasing. Everything i have said would happen so far has. Sorry if some cant take off the snow goggles. Not like they are not getting it anyways which is really amazing..

Actually I would prefer a winter that is warm and dry or warm and rainy, but that isn't going to happen here.

[A-L-E-K]

I hate to play traffic cop, but enough with the pissing match by everyone involved in it. Personal attacks are unnecessary. Take it to PM...as it doesn't need to be in this thread. Seriously.

pissing matches are boring more than anything else, there's more than enough room for all opinions fact based or weenie wishcasting.

As for your 4-8", pfff.

6z NAM (which i think is doing slightly better than the GFS) drops 2.5 or so per text output. Watching the radar loop sure looks to me like this bad boy is slowing down and ready to start cutting. That said best pressure falls are just ese of the low right now, so it might not be going anywhere quick.

And i regret letting csnavywx talk me down from my 40 degree call, we're definitely hitting 40. The warm tounge looks to get pulled right into northern illinois and is going to really cut back any snow we would have gotten pre-defo band.

[Cyrys]

First total in for just west of me with 6.1" in Waconia.

[Harry]

Actually I would prefer a winter that is warm and dry or warm and rainy, but that isn't going to happen here.

That you are correct about.

So may i ask then what the interest is if you cant stand cold and snow? Just the novelty of it?

[janetjanet998]

pissing matches are boring more than anything else, there's more than enough room for all opinions fact based or weenie wishcasting.

As for your 4-8", pfff.

6z NAM (which i think is doing slightly better than the GFS) drops 2.5 or so per text output. Watching the radar loop sure looks to me like this bad boy is slowing down and ready to start cutting. That said best pressure falls are just ese of the low right now, so it might not be going anywhere quick.

And i regret letting csnavywx talk me down from my 40 degree call, we're definitely hitting 40. The warm tounge looks to get pulled right into northern illinois and is going to really cut back any snow we would have gotten pre-defo band.

I think you can see the 700mb low on radar just ENE of sioux city IA..its not moving at all

[A-L-E-K]

I think you can see the 700mb low on radar just ENE of sioux city IA..its not moving at all and if that is indeed it it is west of the 06z models valid at 12z

you're right, i'm just getting up to speed and hadn't even looked at it yet.

I also see the hi res NMM throws a nice defo band back into cook county tomorrow.

this and this looks like all snow

[Cyrys]

That you are correct about.

So may i ask then what the interest is if you cant stand cold and snow? Just the novelty of it?

I like snow. I get sick of the extreme cold we have up here very quickly(like whats upcoming). I enjoy a good snow storm while it's occurring as long as I don't have to go out in it(like this one). Otherwise if I have things to do, snow is much more of an annoying hassle. I enjoy extreme snow events, but 2-5 inch clipper systems don't do a whole lot for me(though they can be interesting to watch) unless we are adding snowfall to a potentially record snow month or season.

[Harry]

pissing matches are boring more than anything else, there's more than enough room for all opinions fact based or weenie wishcasting.

As for your 4-8", pfff.

6z NAM (which i think is doing slightly better than the GFS) drops 2.5 or so per text output. Watching the radar loop sure looks to me like this bad boy is slowing down and ready to start cutting. That said best pressure falls are just ese of the low right now, so it might not be going anywhere quick.

And i regret letting csnavywx talk me down from my 40 degree call, we're definitely hitting 40. The warm tounge looks to get pulled right into northern illinois and is going to really cut back any snow we would have gotten pre-defo band.

Thing to remember is there is a massive Artic high pushing down out of Canada and the system surely cant run directly into the clipper system that is moving up into Canada either. Thus it has to dip which will get help from the digging trough on it's back side. keep in mind mos systems that head ne/nne have the jet coming up fom the ssw/sw not nnw/nw as this has at the moment. Think of a clipper that comes out of Canada and digs. Same basic thing here. This being a bit stronger.

This is what one normally sees with a system moving nne/ne from the Plains..

What we have..

Can see here it is almost ready to cut/close off.

Hope that helps some.

[A-L-E-K]

Thing to remember is there is a massive Artic high pushing down out of Canada and the system surely cant run directly into the clipper system that is moving up into Canada either. Thus it has to dip which will get help from the digging trough on it's back side. keep in mind mos systems that head ne/nne have the jet coming up fom the ssw/sw not nnw/nw as this has at the moment. Think of a clipper that comes out of Canada and digs. Same basic thing here. This being a bit stronger.

This is what one normally sees with a system moving nne/ne from the Plains..

What we have..

Can see here it is almost ready to cut/close off.

Hope that helps some.

I get what you're saying and i'm not saying it's going to cut hard left to Green Bay, but it looks like it's really taking off now and strengthening systems don't move southeast like that. I think we see slow but steady movement just a hair north of due east.

12z NAM coming in stronger, warmer and maybe a hair south. A large elongated comma shaped lp.

[janetjanet998]

Nam coiming in slower/stronger and a hair south with the mid/upper level lows then 06z

[Harry]

I like snow. I get sick of the extreme cold we have up here very quickly(like whats upcoming). I enjoy a good snow storm while it's occurring as long as I don't have to go out in it(like this one). Otherwise if I have things to do, snow is much more of an annoying hassle. I enjoy extreme snow events, but 2-5 inch clipper systems don't do a whole lot for me(though they can be interesting to watch) unless we are adding snowfall to a potentially record snow month or season.

Ahhh.. That's cool. I don't care for extreme cold either. Same can be said for extreme heat. Just keep it cold enough to keep the snow cover going and all is good because there is no worse site then dead brown grass/bare ground and everything else. I like extreme events period especially if there is a record on the line. I enjoy snow so any is good. Just keep it active and i'll be happy. If i wanted quiet and boring i would go live where that is common and probably would not hang out on a weather board. Thats me though..

Enjoy the storm.

[csnavywx]

I get what you're saying and i'm not saying it's going to cut hard left to Green Bay, but it looks like it's really taking off now and strengthening systems don't move southeast like that. I think we see slow but steady movement just a hair north of due east.

Problem here is that the cold front has already raced immediately SE of the center. It's technically already started occluding. Then we have the issue of the snowpack affecting the position of the low level baroclinic zone. Note the E winds near Chi-town over to NW IL and then the SE winds near peoria? Was watching that thing ooze its way south last night.

[cromartie]

Harry has nailed this 100% so far, kudos to him. I thought it was going to cut to GRB. Now the question is how much for SE WI? I still think the lake screws me and I see 2-5 total.

[A-L-E-K]

Problem here is that the cold front has already raced immediately SE of the center. It's technically already started occluding. Then we have the issue of the snowpack affecting the position of the low level baroclinic zone. Note the E winds near Chi-town over to NW IL and then the SE winds near peoria? Was watching that thing ooze its way south last night.

mine's almost gone

The occluding business is interesting, i'm sure he super slow movement helps that case.

[Harry]

I get what you're saying and i'm not saying it's going to cut hard left to Green Bay, but it looks like it's really taking off now and strengthening systems don't move southeast like that. I think we see slow but steady movement just a hair north of due east.

12z NAM coming in stronger, warmer and maybe a hair south. A large elongated comma shaped lp.

I hear you. It is a odd system to say the least but fun and fascinating to watch unfold regardless of what happens in my backyard.

[A-L-E-K]

Harry has nailed this 100% so far, kudos to him. I thought it was going to cut to GRB. Now the question is how much for SE WI? I still think the lake screws me and I see 2-5 total.

good luck wit dat

[Chicago WX]

As for your 4-8", pfff.

I guess we'll see. I think the backend produces quite nicely for you.

[Cyrys]

Ahhh.. That's cool. I don't care for extreme cold either. Same can be said for extreme heat. Just keep it cold enough to keep the snow cover going and all is good because there is no worse site then dead brown grass/bare ground and everything else. I like extreme events period especially if there is a record on the line. I enjoy snow so any is good. Just keep it active and i'll be happy. If i wanted quiet and boring i would go live where that is common and probably would not hang out on a weather board. Thats me though..

Enjoy the storm.

So what you are passive aggressively saying is that I should leave the board...

[A-L-E-K]

I guess we'll see. I think the backend produces quite nicely for you.

The hi-res models agree with you and i think the 12z NAM will as well.

probably some ingrained rain to snow skepticism.

[csnavywx]

mine's almost gone

The occluding business is interesting, i'm sure he super slow movement helps that case.

I still say we're going to be dealing with a pretty formidable dry slot, but somebody is going to get lucky, stay right on the edge and get more snow as a result.

[Harry]

Harry has nailed this 100% so far, kudos to him. I thought it was going to cut to GRB. Now the question is how much for SE WI? I still think the lake screws me and I see 2-5 total.

Thanks.. I'll wait on the kudos till it is over.

I wont lie though. I have no idea on what influence the lake will have on you guys who live by it as far as P-Type goes.

[cromartie]

good luck wit dat

Where did Dec 8-9 track last year? That was supposed to be a big snow producer up here and I got 4 inches cement. Madison cashed out.

[A-L-E-K]

I still say we're going to be dealing with a pretty formidable dry slot, but somebody is going to get lucky, stay right on the edge and get more snow as a result.

Jainesville on north is my early guess.

[cromartie]

This may be one of those storms that screws MKE south quickly and north of there cashes out ok. A storm like Feb 15 2006.

[ILSNOW]

Jainesville on north is my early guess.

that is one massive drysot being depicted bt the NAM

[Harry]

So what you are passive aggressively saying is that I should leave the board...

No.. As said that's me.

However i think there is those who just enjoy watching the weather itself if you get what i am saying? You like severe wx/chasing? It is weather too and depending on ones view fun to follow/track and or chase. I have not chased but enjoy it all as well. I enjoy tropical systems as much an follow them even though such systems are not common to this area.

[A-L-E-K]

This may be one of those storms that screws MKE south quickly and north of there cashes out ok. A storm like Feb 15 2006.

MKE will start slow, but they look to get smoked in the defo band.