Stebo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm guessing the coupe is compared to the southerly models and the many people aligning themselves with those models last night. Ignore bowme's last post. He tends to overreact....along with Harry. Might want to not call out other posters in a discussion not involving them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 cudos...great discussions & analysis, thank you I'm guessing the coupe is compared to the southerly models and the many people aligning themselves with those models last night. Ignore bowme's last post. He tends to overreact....along with Harry. It is all about weather discussion. I think something Bowme doesn't understand is forecasting requires some level of confidence which may come across as pompous. Regardless, I never offered eveidence against his wish-cast and was mainly discussing the southern MN snow potential for the next 12-18 hours. Apparently that was not understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 09Z surface analysis still deeper and farther NW than both. Also the PV anomaly is still tracking NE so no reason this surface low won't track a tad more E-NE before turning straight E. Also deformation band is farther NW than both GFS/NAM. WV loop and PV anomaly. Circulation still heading north-east along the MN/IA/NE/SD border. http://rap.ucar.edu/...e=-1&duration=4 it lookslike the lowwas right on track but the past few hours took a left turn edit:at least the surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Might want to not call out other posters in a discussion not involving them... lol...I consider this the same extended discussion that began with his post hours ago, but yeah probably a poor and unnecessary choice of words.....Anyways it's still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 He obviously thinks your just trying to rub the dirt in others faces here because your actually in the heart of the heaviest predicted snow. But your right about the low track, but something this minor doesnt deserve repetitive attention as your doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wonder if LOT will have a multimedia briefing later on today. My assumption is that they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 He obviously thinks your just trying to rub the dirt in others faces here because your actually in the heart of the heaviest predicted snow. But your right about the low track, but something this minor doesnt deserve repetitive attention as your doing. Certainly not the case, I never hope against hope for more snow nor do I hope others receive less than they wish. I definitely don't rub it in since I know everyone will eventually see their share, and honestly, forecasting and synoptic/dynamic meteorology is far more interesting to me than the actual snow itself. I hope my general enthusiasm for weather shows regardless of where the hit is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 From what I'm seeing, the northeast/northwest movement of the low has stopped. The pressure maps show the lowest falls in central western Iowa and the radar looks just about due east. Seems just about on track to me, but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Actually the pressure maps just updated... lowest falls far southeastern Iowa into western Ilinois, and the trend looks SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Lowest pressures as of 6AM are Cherokee(still) and Algona Iowa at 999.3. Lowest pressure in MN is still 1002 in Jackson and Fairmont. La Crosse Wi has switched over to freezing rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Actually the pressure maps just updated... lowest falls far southeastern Iowa into western Ilinois, and the trend looks SE. Trough axis still extends NE, but it does seem that it will likely take a more E jog before finally tracking slowly SE closer to the IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Trough axis still extends NE, but it does seem that it will likely take a more E job before finally tracking slowly SE closer to the IL border. Okay glad I wasn't being a weenie and just seeing things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Well there it goes. That shortwave/IPV anomaly is really kicking off that mid-layer frontogenesis over almost all of southern MN. Look how fast radar filled in the last 20 mins.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Well there it goes. That shortwave/IPV anomaly is really kicking off that mid-layer frontogenesis over almost all of southern MN. Look how fast radar filled in the last 20 mins.. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Well there it goes. That shortwave/IPV anomaly is really kicking off that mid-layer frontogenesis over almost all of southern MN. Look how fast radar filled in the last 20 mins.. Perfect timing too...ended up in the dry slot for about half an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Okay glad I wasn't being a weenie and just seeing things A good way to track surface lows in the short term is to assess the frontal zone/baroclinic zone. Of course the position of the wave matters, but in the near-term, the surface low will propagate along the boundary as the upper wave "rides" the baroclinic zone. So, for instance, if the front is acting as a warm front and lifting NE with time, then you can expect the low to track along the warm front but with a NE component (predict how far the front will propagate...can also use surface pressure falls). If, in this case, the front is stalled or acting as a staionary front, expect the low to track right along the position of the stationary front. Using this alone, it seems pretty reasonable the low may track a tad NE for a little bit then track E and eventually SE along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 is this storm feeding off the gulf or is it just strong and doesn't need the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 A good way to track surface lows in the short term is to assess the frontal zone/baroclinic zone. Of course the position of the wave matters, but in the near-term, the surface low will propagate along the boundary as the upper wave "rides" the baroclinic zone. So, for instance, if the front is acting as a warm front and lifting NE with time, then you can expect the low to track along the warm front but with a NE component (predict how far the front will propagate...can also use surface pressure falls). If, in this case, the front is stalled or acting as a staionary front, expect the low to track right along the position of the stationary front. Using this alone, it seems pretty reasonable the low may track a tad NE for a little bit then track E and eventually SE along the front. The low pressure reading in Algona Iowa would support this. Algona is east northeast of Cherokee about 55 miles south of the Minnesota/Iowa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The low pressure reading in Algona Iowa would support this. Algona is east northeast of Cherokee about 55 miles south of the Minnesota/Iowa border. I tlookslike the front is along i-88 in IL east to ENE winds north of it and ESE/SE winds south watch for wind directions in MLI..to see if they veer more SE right now due east at 90 degrees edit...just turned se 13z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Perfect timing too...ended up in the dry slot for about half an hour Hahaha! That's alll? Try 6 hours here..we got zero snowfall last night, but we did receive just over a tenth of an inch of freezing rain..I live in a area very prone to power outages during high winds, so this is just icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm guessing the coupe is compared to the southerly models and the many people aligning themselves with those models last night. Ignore bowme's last post. He tends to overreact....along with Harry. Oh give me a damn break.. This coming from the guy sitting in MN who would benifit from a track further north. I stand by what i said too. So far so good. Oh and about that track north.. Looky here.. And gee what model had it at this spot at 00? Then there is this.. oops.. A nice miss by the NAM.. Need i post the 700 maps? Very easy to set a picture for what ONE WANTS to see. Some of you need to come off of it. I'll leave it at that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hahaha! That's alll? Try 6 hours here..we got zero snowfall last night, but we did receive just over a tenth of an inch of freezing rain..I live in a area very prone to power outages during high winds, so this is just icing on the cake. The southern edge of the band just stayed over me most of the night, though from 4-6 the snowfall wasn't particularly heavy. I'm still waiting for observers to report their totals in Chaska, Carver, and Waconia...and for the updated total from the nws since I only have there total from midnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 intense small compact spin developing over NW IA about 25miles NE of Sioux city ...doesn't seem to be in a big hurry to go anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 anyways, looks like i made the right call riding with 2-5", when you're good, you're good. FWIW following this storm is like being behind a 75 year old asian grandma going 15 with her left blinker on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Oh give me a damn break.. This coming from the guy sitting in MN who would benifit from a track further north. I stand by what i said too. So far so good. Need i post the 700 maps? Very easy to set a picture for what ONE WANTS to see. Some of you need to come off of it. I'll leave it at that.. I thought the low tracking up to towards where it is then tracking east was the northern track . I stand corrected then. I already posted that my mentioning your name was not reallly necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 anyways, looks like i made the right call riding with 2-5", when you're good, you're good. FWIW following this storm is like being behind a 75 year old asian grandma going 15 with her left blinker on. 4-8" for you, book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Highest total so far is 7" in Osceola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 4-8" for you, book it. 1" for us, book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 1" for us, book it! Hopefully. Though I feel like an inch is probably golden, I'd go 1-3" just in case something crazy happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Lowest readings now just below 999 at Algona and Fort Dodge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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