Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

[Baum]

Seriously, this Bears game has epic potential, Forte better be ready.

Fantasy Play-offs and my opponent has Forte...just don;t see it against the Pats...

[Jim Martin]

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=IWX - NAM snowfall forecast

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=IWX - GFS snowfall forecast

Are the GFS and NAM overdoing the snow potential here in northwest Ohio for this weekend?

[daddylonglegs]

Jim-

Be very careful with those maps. They are dangerous in the wrong hands !

LSE is scared to update the AFD

[janetjanet998]

I think LOT should issued WWA area wide now but with a blizzard watch for sunday north and west areas

[janetjanet998]

LOT winter storm watch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

320 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

DISCUSSION

317 PM CST

AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION IS IN THE WORKS AND SHOULD BE OUT

WITHIN THE NEXT 15 TO 20 MINUTES. DELAY IS DUE TO COMPLICATED

FORECAST AND ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WINDS...WIND

CHILLS AND BLOWING STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND PERSISTING

THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MORE DETAILS...WSW AND ZONES

FORTHCOMING.

SHEA

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-

ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-

ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT

MONDAY.

IN...WINTER STORM WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...6 AM

SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY.

[Steve]

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=IWX - NAM snowfall forecast

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=IWX - GFS snowfall forecast

Are the GFS and NAM overdoing the snow potential here in northwest Ohio for this weekend?

Wrong question to ask here..of course it's overdone..were Ohio!!

[L.B. LaForce]

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

These GFS snowfall forecasts almost always seem to overdo the snow amount

[KokomoWX]

I think to snow tool is a bit broken. Look at my total...

StnID: gvs    Model: nam    Run: 20101210/1800    Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Sleet Ratio: 2:1   || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4

Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
======================================================================================================================
101210/1900Z   1  22010KT  34.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101210/2000Z   2  22010KT  34.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101210/2100Z   3  22009KT  33.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101210/2200Z   4  22009KT  32.0F   ICE     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101210/2300Z   5  21008KT  30.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/0000Z   6  21006KT  30.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101211/0100Z   7  21005KT  29.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/0200Z   8  19004KT  29.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/0300Z   9  18005KT  29.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/0400Z  10  17006KT  29.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/0500Z  11  17006KT  29.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/0600Z  12  17006KT  29.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101211/0700Z  13  17005KT  28.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/0800Z  14  15004KT  28.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/0900Z  15  14005KT  28.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/1000Z  16  14006KT  27.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/1100Z  17  14007KT  27.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/1200Z  18  14007KT  27.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101211/1300Z  19  14008KT  27.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/1400Z  20  14009KT  28.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/1500Z  21  15010KT  31.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/1600Z  22  14011KT  33.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/1700Z  23  14012KT  34.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/1800Z  24  14012KT  35.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101211/1900Z  25  14014KT  35.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/2000Z  26  14015KT  36.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101211/2100Z  27  15016KT  36.0F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.012|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101211/2200Z  28  15017KT  36.0F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.091|| 0.10     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101211/2300Z  29  16016KT  35.8F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.031|| 0.13     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/0000Z  30  17013KT  35.4F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.016|| 0.15     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101212/0100Z  31  17013KT  35.8F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.016|| 0.17     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/0200Z  32  18012KT  36.0F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.047|| 0.21     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/0300Z  33  19010KT  35.8F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.079|| 0.29     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/0400Z  34  20008KT  35.6F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.079|| 0.37     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/0500Z  35  23009KT  33.8F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.079|| 0.45     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    52|  0| 48
101212/0600Z  36  25008KT  32.4F  SNOW    15:1| 0.5|| 0.5    0.031|| 0.48     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
101212/0700Z  37  27012KT  30.7F  SNOW     9:1| 0.2|| 0.6    0.020|| 0.50     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/0800Z  38  28014KT  27.7F  SNOW     9:1| 0.1|| 0.7    0.012|| 0.51     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/0900Z  39  27013KT  25.2F  SNOW    17:1| 0.2|| 0.9    0.012|| 0.52     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/1000Z  40  27013KT  23.7F  SNOW    23:1| 0.4|| 1.3    0.016|| 0.54     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/1100Z  41  26013KT  21.9F  SNOW     0:1| 0.0|| 1.3    0.004|| 0.54     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/1200Z  42  25013KT  20.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 1.3    0.000|| 0.54     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101212/1300Z  43  25012KT  19.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 1.3    0.000|| 0.54     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101212/1400Z  44  25012KT  19.4F  SNOW    30:1| 0.1|| 1.4    0.004|| 0.55     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/1500Z  45  25013KT  20.1F  SNOW    29:1| 0.1|| 1.5    0.004|| 0.55     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/1600Z  46  25013KT  20.8F  SNOW    10:1| 0.0|| 1.6    0.004|| 0.56     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/1700Z  47  25013KT  21.9F  SNOW    11:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.004|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/1800Z  48  26013KT  23.2F  SNOW    27:1| 0.1|| 0.1    0.004|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101212/1900Z  49  26013KT  24.6F  SNOW    26:1| 0.1|| 0.2    0.004|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/2000Z  50  25013KT  25.9F  SNOW    22:1| 0.2|| 0.4    0.008|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/2100Z  51  26015KT  27.0F  SNOW    14:1| 0.3|| 0.7    0.024|| 0.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/2200Z  52  29022KT  27.3F  SNOW    11:1| 0.4|| 1.1    0.035|| 0.07     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101212/2300Z  53  30025KT  26.8F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 1.4    0.028|| 0.10     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/0000Z  54  30025KT  26.1F  SNOW    12:1| 0.3|| 1.7    0.028|| 0.13     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101213/0100Z  55  30025KT  25.2F  SNOW    13:1| 0.4|| 2.1    0.028|| 0.16     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/0200Z  56  29025KT  24.1F  SNOW    13:1| 0.3|| 2.4    0.024|| 0.18     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/0300Z  57  30025KT  23.4F  SNOW    16:1| 0.4|| 2.8    0.028|| 0.21     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/0400Z  58  30024KT  22.6F  SNOW    18:1| 0.6|| 3.4    0.035|| 0.24     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/0500Z  59  30023KT  22.1F  SNOW    20:1| 0.8|| 4.2    0.039|| 0.28     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/0600Z  60  30022KT  21.7F  SNOW    23:1| 1.1|| 5.3    0.047|| 0.33     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101213/0700Z  61  30021KT  21.2F  SNOW    25:1| 1.4|| 6.7    0.055|| 0.39     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/0800Z  62  30021KT  20.7F  SNOW    27:1| 1.6|| 8.3    0.059|| 0.44     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/0900Z  63  30020KT  20.1F  SNOW    28:1| 1.7||10.0    0.063|| 0.51     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/1000Z  64  30021KT  19.4F  SNOW    28:1| 1.6||11.6    0.059|| 0.57     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/1100Z  65  30020KT  19.0F  SNOW    27:1| 1.5||13.1    0.055|| 0.62     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/1200Z  66  30020KT  18.7F  SNOW    27:1| 1.4||14.5    0.051|| 0.67     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101213/1300Z  67  30019KT  18.1F  SNOW    25:1| 1.4||15.9    0.055|| 0.73     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/1400Z  68  30018KT  18.0F  SNOW    26:1| 1.2||17.1    0.047|| 0.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/1500Z  69  29019KT  17.4F  SNOW    28:1| 1.3||18.4    0.047|| 0.82     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/1600Z  70  29019KT  16.5F  SNOW    26:1| 1.0||19.5    0.039|| 0.86     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/1700Z  71  29020KT  16.3F  SNOW    24:1| 0.7||20.2    0.031|| 0.89     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/1800Z  72  29021KT  16.9F  SNOW    23:1| 0.5||20.7    0.020|| 0.91     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
101213/1900Z  73  29022KT  17.1F  SNOW    22:1| 0.3||20.9    0.012|| 0.93     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/2000Z  74  29023KT  16.0F  SNOW    23:1| 0.2||21.1    0.008|| 0.93     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/2100Z  75  29022KT  14.5F  SNOW    23:1| 0.1||21.2    0.004|| 0.94     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101213/2200Z  76  29021KT  12.9F           0:1| 0.0||21.2    0.000|| 0.94     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101213/2300Z  77  29021KT  11.5F           0:1| 0.0||21.2    0.000|| 0.94     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0000Z  78  29020KT  10.6F           0:1| 0.0||21.2    0.000|| 0.94     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101214/0100Z  79  29019KT   9.9F           0:1| 0.0||21.2    0.000|| 0.94     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0200Z  80  29019KT   8.8F           0:1| 0.0||21.2    0.000|| 0.94     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0300Z  81  28018KT   8.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0400Z  82  28018KT   7.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0500Z  83  28018KT   6.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0600Z  84  28018KT   5.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
======================================================================================================================

Yeah, that was 21.2 from the NAM!

[snowstormcanuck]

18z RGEM

24: 1002 just west of the QCs

36: 999 just south of Gary, IN

48: 994 Youngstown, OH

It's H5 low is pretty far south as well by 48 hours, looks close to Louisville, KY (maybe more like Cincinnati). Interesting that the RGEM has been one of the hi-res models that has been consistently closer to the southern camp of models.

[Chinook]

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=IWX - NAM snowfall forecast

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=IWX - GFS snowfall forecast

Are the GFS and NAM overdoing the snow potential here in northwest Ohio for this weekend?

I would go with 3"+ for Northwest Ohio. I think the system will produce 3"+ with the cold front band, then it will be flurries amounting to little total new snow. There is going to be dry slot in the clouds, then a comma cloud section, and then lingering low level lake effect snow cloud section. This will not be awesome for snow production in Ohio, but potentially 1". Later on Sunday, there will be strong winds blowing the snow all over the place.

[LizardMafia]

I think to snow tool is a bit broken. Look at my total...

Yeah, that was 21.2 from the NAM!

Pretty heavy LE snow..

[daddylonglegs]

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY

VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS

AND SLOWS RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE

WERE A SERIES OF MODEL RUNS LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT THAT WERE

POINTING TO A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH STORM TRACK...AND HENCE MORE

WARM AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR EVEN RAIN

CUTTING INTO SNOW POTENTIAL. BUT THE 12Z RUNS STARTED SHIFTING SOUTH

AGAIN...AND THE RECENT 18Z MODELS ARE EVEN MORE SOUTH. SO...MODEL

WAFFLING HAS NOT LEAD TO VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND/OR CONFIDENCE IN

THE SPECIFICS OF THIS FORECAST...AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO THE

SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE OF THINGS ARE CLEAR

HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL...EXTENDING

FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI...AND THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF

WIND WITH THE SYSTEM.

WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED PREVIOUSLY FOR SOUTHEAST MN INTO

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI. THAT IS LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT...WITH

ANYWHERE FROM 6 INCHES UPWARD TO 10-14 FURTHER NORTH. WITH THIS

FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE ADDED A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST WI

TO THE WARNING...AND HAVE ADDED THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW CENTER OVER WY...WITH A WARM

FRONT REACHING ACROSS SD AND INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN IA. TEMPERATURES

IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE VERY WARM...40S AND EVEN SOME 50S AS CLOSE AS

DES MOINES. BUT COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MN/WI...

WITH READINGS STILL IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THIS TIGHT GRADIENT

WILL ONLY ADD MORE FUEL TO THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS

NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR

LOOPS ALREADY SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT OVER

WESTERN IA...HEADING THIS WAY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO TO DEAL WITH...AS THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT

AS THE LOW APPROACHES WILL BE KEY TO WHAT KIND OF PRECIP WILL FALL.

FEELING IS THAT AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS THIS EVENING IT WILL BE SOME

KIND OF MIX AS THE WARM AIR ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE COLD AIR NEAR

THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY...THE WARM AIR MAY WIN OUT ALTOGETHER...AND

IT COULD BE ALL RAIN FOR A TIME OVER NORTHEAST IA AND EVEN SOUTHWEST

WI. ALSO LIKELY TO BE A MIX FOR SOUTHEAST MN INITIALLY AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW CENTER FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR KDBQ AROUND NOON

SATURDAY...FURTHER NORTH IN THE NAM/FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ECMWF. AS

THIS OCCURS...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC SNOW WILL BE FALLING IN

GREAT QUANTITIES FROM THE TWIN CITIES AREA THROUGH EAU CLAIRE AND

INTO NORTHERN WI. THE COLD AIR WILL BE WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE AS

THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...SO EXPECT A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO REALLY CRANK UP AS THE SYSTEM REACHES MAXIMUM

INTENSITY AS IT PASSES NEAR MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO SATURDAY EVENING.

FORECAST WIND SPEEDS OF 40+ KTS ARE SEEN IN THE LOW LAYERS IN ALL

MODEL RUNS...AND ANTICIPATE THE OPEN AREAS OF MN/IA WILL SEE SOME

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MPX/DMX HAVE ISSUED BLIZZARD WARNINGS ADJACENT

TO OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WE MAY END UP NEEDING TO TRANSITION TO

BLIZZARD HEADLINES FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA. LATER SHIFTS WILL MAKE

THAT CALL...AS WE FELT IT BEST NOT TO COMPLICATE THE HEADLINES WE

ALREADY HAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SO SOME BLOWING

DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. BUT THE EVEN BIGGER STORY WILL

BE THE BITTER COLD INVADING BEHIND IT. LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL

DROP BELOW ZERO FOR SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA...WITH NOT MUCH OF A

RISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. WIND CHILLS

WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD...IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO. BY MONDAY

MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. HIGH

PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BY THEN...ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO

DIMINISH. BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 20S AND 30S

BELOW ZERO ON MONDAY.

[janetjanet998]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

335 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

DISCUSSION

324 PM CST

THE NIGHT OF CALM IS IN FRONT OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS REGIONAL

SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY A GENERAL INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER MOVING IN

FROM THE WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH

OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE

WEEKEND.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE A TRICKY FORECAST THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN

BETTER CONSENSUS OVER THE LAST DAY NOW. SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN

WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AND

WILL IMPACT THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW HAS BEEN THE LOW THAT HAS

CAUSED MANY A HEARTACHE TO METEOROLOGISTS ALL ACROSS THE

MIDWEST...AND STILL CONTINUES TO DO SO. FORECAST TRACKS FOR THE

LOW CENTERS HAVE RANGED FROM KENTUCKY THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL

WISCONSIN OVER THE COURSE (OR CURSE) OF THE LAST WEEK. EVEN 36

HOURS OUT...THE TRACK OF THE LOW STILL VARIES FROM MILWAUKEE TO

CHICAGO. AS STATED MANY TIMES OVER THE LAST WEEK...SMALL CHANGES

IN LOCATION CAN WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST. THE PACKAGE THIS

AFTERNOON WAS GOING WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK THAT MOVES ALONG THE

ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN BORDER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS THAT THE

ONSET OF ACTIVITY TO THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WORK EAST. WARM AIR SURGING FROM THE

SOUTH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN

WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY...AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO

ALL RAIN FOR THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE

WESTERN 1/3...PRIMARILY WEST OF I-39 WILL BE THE TRICKY AREA THAT

SHOULD SEE SOME PERIOD OF ALL RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO THE

RAIN SNOW AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. BY THE AFTERNOON THE CHICAGO

METRO WILL START TO SEE THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN AND

SNOW AND THEN OVER TO SNOW. THAT TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE

RELATIVELY QUICK AS COLD ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY BLASTS IN BEHIND THE COLD

FRONT. DO EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS IN AROUND

THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS WITH THIS WRAP

AROUND AREA THAT THE INTRODUCTION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME

FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY COME INTO PLAY. EXPECT THIS SMALL WINDOW TO

BE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE MAIN WRAP AROUND SNOW MOVES

INTO THE AREA. BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE WISCONSIN

AND MINNESOTA AREA BUT THE DEF ZONE WILL REACH INTO AND ACROSS THE

CWA OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AND INTO THE SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW FALL

TOTALS WITH THIS ZONE AS IT SLIDES ACROSS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN

THE 1-3 INCH RANGE OUT WEST...TO 2-4 FROM FROM I-39 TO THE LAKE

AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LAKE SHORE OF INDIANA AND

EAST...THOUGH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CRITICAL TO EXACT

TOTALS AND THESE VALUES ARE GENERALIZED AT THE PRESENT TIME UNTIL

THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS. THERE IS THE THOUGHT THAT THERE MAY BE

SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS LAKE AND COOK COUNTY ILLINOIS BEFORE

THE FULL MACHINE IS UNLEASHED ACROSS LAKE BUT MAINLY PORTER

COUNTIES IN INDIANA. THE TO COMPLICATE THE SITUATION MORE...STRONG

WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL START UP SUNDAY EVENING...AND PERSIST

THROUGH MONDAY.

PRESENT THOUGHTS/ACTIONS. WINTER STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED

MOMENTARILY FROM 06Z SUNDAY /MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY/ FOR ILLINOIS AND

12Z SUNDAY /6AM SUNDAY / FOR INDIANA. BOTH WATCHES WILL PERSIST

FOR 24 HOURS EACH...THOUGH PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WILL LIKELY BE

UPGRADED AND EXTENDED FOR A PERIOD AS LARGER SNOW TOTALS ARE

EXPECTED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. THE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED

FOR WIND ...BLOWING SNOW AND POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS THAT MAY BE AOA

CRITERIA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR VISIBILITIES TO BE SEVERELY

HAMPERED AT TIMES...BUT KEEPING A SUSTAINED QUARTER MILE FOR THREE

HOURS STRAIGHT IS A HARD THING TO ACCOMPLISH FOR THIS AREA.

[michsnowfreak]

While DTX DID hold off on a watch, they did mention the jog to the south and adjusted the amounts much snowier than this mornings package. They are right now thinking 4-7" for Detroits northern burbs down to the OH border, with 6-9" in the thumb. Also, a north-south gradient due to more rain mixing in at first in the south. So essentially 4" at the OH border and 9" in the thumb. Just hoping it holds or goes a bit south. Either way, looks like I should see the grass completely covered in less than 48 hours

[The_Global_Warmer]

18z RGEM

24: 1002 just west of the QCs

36: 999 just south of Gary, IN

48: 994 Youngstown, OH

It's H5 low is pretty far south as well by 48 hours, looks close to Louisville, KY (maybe more like Cincinnati). Interesting that the RGEM has been one of the hi-res models that has been consistently closer to the southern camp of models.

18z RGEM gives me 3-4 inches, LOCK IT IN!

[weatherbo]

Wow @ the blizzard watches for W IL

[daddylonglegs]

That was LSE above in my post...

[snowstormcanuck]

18z GFS at 18 might be a bit further south than the 12z run at 24, although it could also just be a tad slower.

[Organizing Low]

18z RGEM

24: 1002 just west of the QCs

36: 999 just south of Gary, IN

48: 994 Youngstown, OH

It's H5 low is pretty far south as well by 48 hours, looks close to Louisville, KY (maybe more like Cincinnati). Interesting that the RGEM has been one of the hi-res models that has been consistently closer to the southern camp of models.

that's big

[Organizing Low]

some of the winds for you guys in the MW are going to be sick

i hope the bears game lives up to the hype

im excited

[jhamps10]

18z GFS at 18 might be a bit further south than the 12z run at 24, although it could also just be a tad slower.

tad slower, a very small shift south compaired to 12z. that's looking at 18z at 30 compaired to 12z at 36

[baroclinic_instability]

GFS coming in more intense...and as a result shifted farther W and slower.

[The_Global_Warmer]

GFS coming in more intense...and as a result shifted farther W and slower.

Yea, H5 almost moves due south

[snowstormcanuck]

tad slower, a very small shift south compaired to 12z. that's looking at 18z at 30 compaired to 12z at 36

The southward shift at 30 is more noticeable when comparing H5 plots. The center of the ul low is almost on the MO/IA line.

[mnchaser]

18z GFS at 18 might be a bit further south than the 12z run at 24, although it could also just be a tad slower.

Looks like a bit of both, kinda trending towards a NAM scenario being not as fast.

Through 30 hours, 1.25 of precip smack dab over KMKT, Oh boy this could be a nasty one.

[jhamps10]

yeah look at the deform band snows on the GFS, down to I-70 at 36... STL may not be totally out of it yet, or at least to get an inch anyway

[csnavywx]

This is fascinating to watch.

My guess is that as the cA boundary and snowpack effects are analyzed every run, the bias is corrected, hence these very slow, small south adjustments every run. Part of the reason we're not seeing this on the RGEM and GGEM is because they both seemed to be a bit more aggressive with the cold air dome. Perhaps this is something in the model scheme? We saw this a couple of times last year too.

[csnavywx]

Regardless, any model you watch, the WCB and trowal features are amazing. They're showing up very strongly in the thermal fields, whereas usually this is more subtle, even on your southern "bowling balls".

Edit: The dry slot misses ORD on the 18Z run, and it was a fairly close call on the 18Z NAM.

[jhamps10]

ROFL at that hole over the Flora area at 42

[Allsnow]

18z really ramped up the defo band for chicago......

edit. Looks like .25-.50 has fallen in chicago frozen....with more to come