Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

[prinsburg_wx]

08Z

[dilly84]

Nam clobbers us Jay!

[baroclinic_instability]

You mean NE?

No NW. Surface low is almost pushing into SD.

You can almost see it at Yankton, SD. http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=pir&endDate=20101211&endTime=-1&duration=0

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif

[JayPSU]

Nam clobbers us Jay!

Absolutely destroys folks from south central Ohio, to Toledo, to Hoosier, and into Michigan. Absolutely beautiful.

[dilly84]

Absolutely destroys folks from south central Ohio, to Toledo, to Hoosier, and into Michigan. Absolutely beautiful.

Yes it is. Can't wait to see those soundings

[baroclinic_instability]

Should be interesting, as Hoosier said right now mostly seems intensity error, track a tad off NW but the low may quickly shift E with time. Within next 3-6 hours will be important as all guidance takes the surface low due E.

[Stebo]

Should be interesting, as Hoosier said right now mostly seems intensity error, track a tad off NW but the low may quickly shift E with time. Within next 3-6 hours will be important as all guidance takes the surface low due E.

Yeah from what I am seeing is its a bit stronger a hair NW but to me it seems slower more than anything, the trends are what to monitor to see if it keeps moving E.

[Omahawx]

near 50 still here in Omaha nebraska..with upper teens just northwest of here in Northeast Nebraska

[MadTown]

HPC low track

[Stebo]

HPC low track

They finally dropped it south some.

Day 1-2 snow maps

[prinsburg_wx]

wish this would fill in...i'm sitting between the 2 heavy bands

[Stebo]

Time for some LOLs, Here is the comic relief map at 48 hours. 10 to 1 ratios here. Daddylonglegs would approve of this message.

[Sidewinder]

IND is holding off on advisories. That one winter storm where they busted badly, I think early last year, can't blame them for continuing to play it safe.

SINCE STRONG WINDS/MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS DO NOT LOOK

TO OCCUR UNTIL LATER SUNDAY...AND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE

TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT

THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN SPS/HWO.

[Stebo]

From DTX, personally I don't know if staying pat on the watches is the right move, especially when noting the forecaster mentioning the bolded part. If there is uncertainty but a potential of a significant snowfall at this rime range put the watch out and downgrade to an advisory.

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY

BRINGING HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST

MICHIGAN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE

FORECAST AREA REMAIN ON TRACK TO SEE THE HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE HURON...WHILE LOCATIONS

ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH AT THE ONSET TO BE LESS

EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...THUS CUTTING DOWN ON TOTAL SNOWFALL AND

WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME

STRONG BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH

DANGEROUS WIND CHILL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS VALUES APPROACH 10

BELOW ZERO. WINDS COMING OFF LAKE HURON WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED

THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE THUMB LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW VISIBILITIES IN

FALLING/BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO NARROW IN ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM NOW THAT

THE STRONG JET DRIVING THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE PACIFIC

NORTHWEST. MAIN ADJUSTMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS FOR THE NAM/GFS

HAS BEEN TOWARDS A DEEPER AND SLOWER UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS

RESULTED IN THE SURFACE LOW ALSO TRENDING BACK TO THE SOUTH. SOME

SPREAD STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE

NAM RUNNING ABOUT 110 MILES FURTHER NORTH BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS PLACES

THE NAM ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE

GEM/UKMET/GFS/ECMWF CLUSTERED TOGETHER WITH A TRACK NEAR THE STATE

LINE. THE 06Z NAM HAS ALSO JUST ARRIVED AND HAS JOINED THE CONSENSUS

TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TREND...WITH MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS

LYING EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT

DIRECTION AND MONITOR FOR ANY FURTHER TRENDS TO THE SOUTH ON THE 12Z

CYCLE BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL WARNING/ADVISORY DECISIONS. THE TREND

TO THE SOUTH DOES RESULT IN A COLDER AND MORE SNOWY SOLUTION FOR

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND THE SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS THE METRO AREA

MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. WOULD GENERALLY CLASSIFY THIS EVENT AS A

LONG DURATION/MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE OF EVENT.

THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY

EVENING...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOWING SNOW ARRIVING

BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM. NAM THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER

AND STILL SUPPORTS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION

FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS

MORE OF A WET SNOW. EVEN THE WARMER NAM SHOWS THE MARGINAL WARM

LAYER BEING OVERCOME QUICKLY AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND OCCLUDED

FRONT ARRIVES. SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED

WITH THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTING OVERHEAD LATE SATURDAY

NIGHT WILL BRING A MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH 1-4 INCHES ACROSS

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. CURRENT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS

INDIANA AND OHIO ON SUNDAY PUSHES THE TROWAL AND FAVORABLE

DEFORMATION AXIS NORTH OVER LAKE HURON. THE TRAJECTORY OFF THE

LAKE...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE IN

THE DAY...SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS

THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT

NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THREATENS TO REDUCE

SNOWFALL...THUS SUPPORTING THE DECISION TO LEAVE THE WATCH OUT OF

THE SOUTH. THE CONCERN REMAINS THAT A FURTHER SHIFT TO THE SOUTH

WILL BRING THE DEFORMATION AXIS AS FAR SOUTH AS DETROIT AND RESULT

IN HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

[snowlord81]

Interesting not going with at least an advisory for north of I-70. New Nam shows me getting up to 6 inches of snow here in Central Hamilton county.

[KeenerWx]

IND going for around an inch SW to near 4" NE.

Looking at the ZFP for Lafayette, looks like they expect 1-2" in this area.

LOT going for 1-2" Sunday for back at home, with "several inches possible" on Sunday night (referring to Lake Effect, likely). Their experimental snow accumulation map suggests around 4" for back at home.

Personally, I like 2-3" for Lafayette, and 4" looks good back at home (wild card being LES and how long it stays in the area).

Was contemplating going back home for 2 days before finals to see what the Lake Effect does. Right now, it doesn't look like it will amount to much (a quick 1-2" looks likely). However, lake effect is fickle and who the heck knows what will happen. Will probably assess the situation in the morning. If it looks likely that I will get a bit more than 4" at home, I'll probably head up there and study the rest of the weekend (snow may deter me, or it may motivate me, who knows). Would LOVE to be in SW Michigan/North Central Indiana at this point. I need to move.

[Stebo]

GRR went watch for entire CWA, makes DTX's lack of watch south of I-69 stand out more.

SHORT TERM...(407 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2010)

(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING STORM THAT CURRENTLY IS

NEAR THE NE/IA BORDER. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW TRACK

TRENDING SOUTH ALONG THE IN/MI BORDER. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF

ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HAVE

CONVERGED ON A TRACK ALONG THE BORDER. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS ROOM

FOR MORE MODIFICATION TODAY. IF IT KEEPS TRENDING SOUTH...IT MAY

MEAN LESS SNOW OVER OUR NRN CWA. AS SUCH WE KEPT THE WATCH INTACT

AND ADDED THE REST OF THE COUNTIES TO IT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE

THE FARTHEST NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE 06Z RUN IS TRENDING SOUTH...AND SO

HAS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE SOUTH.

THE PCPN WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME RAIN BUT TURN TO SNOW BY

EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG FGEN FORCING IS PROGD FROM NEAR MKG TO

MOP FROM 09Z TO 18Z SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF

DEFORMATION SNOW DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROWAL MOVES

THROUGH. IT/S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...BUT NOT CERTAIN...THAT WE/LL SEE A

FOOT OF SNOW OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA FROM THIS STORM...AND

THAT/S BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO

THE SOUTH. THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE A MITIGATING EFFECT TO LAKE SNOW

AS H8 WINDS IN THE 50-60KT RANGE WILL PROHIBIT BANDS FROM

ESTABLISHING. EVEN SO...STRONG OMEGA IN A FAIRLY WIDE DGZ WILL

CREATE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW. RH FIELDS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS

SYSTEM. WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL CREATE NEAR

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE COULD TOTAL A FOOT OR TWO

BY LATE MONDAY AND 6 TO 9 INCHES SOUTH OF I-96/69 AND EAST OF US-131

INCLUDING GRAND RAPIDS AND LANSING . ACROSS THE NRN CWA AROUND A

FOOT IS POSSIBLE.

WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW 0 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

[MadTown]

_{sorry, but gonna ask as we near afd time. If you are milwaukee NWS what do you do with the counties in the winter storm watch. winter weather adv or warning}

[dilly84]

Jay, nam puts out nearly 8"

[michsnowfreak]

Absolutely destroys folks from south central Ohio, to Toledo, to Hoosier, and into Michigan. Absolutely beautiful.

The NAM, by FAR the northern outlier, has shifted well enough south at 6z that now it has DTW almost all snow (0.02" qpf falls as rain, 0.96" falls as snow!). So pretty much all models track the low south of us, some ensemble members way south. This is all of a sudden turning into a potentially big snowstorm for SE MI! DTX not issuing a wath CWA-wide seems silly, but you can tell they are already hinting that updates may be coming soon. I think it will go up soon. I just got home from going out with a friend, so I am off to bed. By the time Im up the 12z runs should be in and should solidify if we are seeing a good snowstorm!

[B-Rent]

Interesting not going with at least an advisory for north of I-70. New Nam shows me getting up to 6 inches of snow here in Central Hamilton county.

IND

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FOCUS IS ON THE ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO

MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...THE

MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN

PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR THE MOST

PART...BUT LEAN AT TIMES ON THE NAM FOR TEMPERATURES AS IT USUALLY DOES

BETTER WITH THE COLD AIR.

FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN EARLY IN THE

EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW

BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING AHEAD

OF THE FRONT AS DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT...SO DO

NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOWFALL TONIGHT. WILL GO HIGH POPS THIS

EVENING...DROPPING TO CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN. WENT

CLOSER TO THE COLDER OF THE MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2M TEMPERATURES

FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE

FRONT.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL SUNDAY MORNING AS BEST CHANCES

FOR SNOW ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN DEFORMATION BEHIND THE UPPER

LOW. WILL GO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY MORNING THEN LIKELY MOST AREAS

SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

THE PROBLEMS WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WHEN

STRONG WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. BY 00Z 40-50KT WINDS WILL BE

AT 925MB...AND SOME OF THESE WILL WORK DOWN AS GUSTS OVER 30KT AT

THE SURFACE. THESE WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ACROSS

AREAS THAT SEE A LITTLE MORE SNOW SUNDAY...WHICH IS ACROSS THE

NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD CORE MOVES

OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. MAV LOOKS RIDICULOUS WITH ITS

HIGHS IN THE 30S...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE MUCH COLDER MET.

SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING BUT THEN LAKE

EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS KICK IN WITH STRONG FLOW ACROSS LAKE

MICHIGAN. WILL GO ABOVE MAV POPS AND KEEP HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY

POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WINDS WILL STILL BE AROUND WITH GUSTS

AROUND 35KT POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW WHERE

APPROPRIATE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR

NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY ON MONDAY AS WELL. DRY

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY.

AT THE MOMENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE DAY

MONDAY LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND AN INCH SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 4 INCHES

NORTHEAST. SINCE STRONG WINDS/MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS DO NOT LOOK

TO OCCUR UNTIL LATER SUNDAY...AND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE

TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT

THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN SPS/HWO.

[Stebo]

Weird now DTX has a watch from 8 mile north, yet saying watch will be unchanged in AFD.

[michsnowfreak]

Weird now DTX has a watch from 8 mile north, yet saying watch will be unchanged in AFD.

Based on model trends, it makes no sense not to have the entire area in a WSW. Esp since our 1 northern outlier (NAM) came south and now gives us almost 1" qpf in snow.

[janetjanet998]

just checked the RUC seems to be a tad more NORTH then the runs a few hours ago

[prinsburg_wx]

09Z

[janetjanet998]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

334 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEVELOPING WINTER STORM TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE FORECAST

AREA TODAY. AT 08Z...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NORTH OF OMAHA.

RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS

DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF FROM THE OPEN SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ONLY A

FEW HOURS AGO.

WITH LOTS TO LOOK AT AND UPGRADES TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING...A MORE

DETAILED DISCUSSION WILL BE DELAYED. UPSHOT IS THAT THE SURFACE

LOW IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN

ADVERTISED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND MAY STILL TRACK A BIT

FURTHER SOUTH THAN LATEST MODELS DEPICT BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF

THE SYSTEM. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT OVER EASTERN

IA AND WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING TONIGHT. LESS CERTAINTY

EXISTS THAT THE EAST WILL SEE THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MAY BE MORE

OF AN ADVISORY SITUATION FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW...AS

THE ONSET IS STILL 24 HOURS OUT AND FURTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO

THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE...WILL KEEP THE BLIZZARD WATCH

GOING FOR ROUGHLY AREAS W OF THE MS RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR TERM TRENDS ALSO AN ISSUE AND WILL HAVE TO

WATCH CLOSELY AS WE MAY BE NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR FREEZING

RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING N OF I-80 AND ALONG AND E OF THE MS

RIVER.

..SHEETS..

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

IMPRESSIVE BLIZZARD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH NOON SUNDAY...BEFORE CONVERTING TOWARD A HIGH END BLOWING

SNOW OR POSSIBLE GROUND BLIZZARD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW...STRENTHEN...SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE SYSTEM TO

THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE DEF

ZONE...POSSIBLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY...THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS VERY LIKELY GIVEN THE

DEEP DENDRITIC LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS AND INFERRED FROM THE ECMWF

AND GEM. THIS SNOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOFTED BLOWING

SNOW...MAKING FOR WIDESPREAD NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST HOVERING

AROUND ZERO FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE SOUTHEAST MAY START IN THE MID

TO UPPER TEENS...BUT WILL ALSO FALL THE SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE

MORNING.

WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA OF -30F MAY BE MET BY SUNDAY

EVENING...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD

EASILY GO BELOW ZERO...WITH -10 LIKELY OVER THE NORTH 1/2 OR SO.

AFTER A SUNNY BUT WINDY AND COLD DAY MONDAY...THE RIDGE GETS OVER

HEAD FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER VERY

COLD NIGHT...BUT WITH LESS WIND...WE MAY SEE ONLY -15 TO -20 ON WIND

CHILLS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPS MODERATE ALOFT...BUT WITH THE RIDGE

IN PLACE OVER SNOW COVER...OUR CURRENT HIGHS OF 10 TO 20 LOOK RATHER

OPTIMISTIC.

[Omahawx]

Cold front is currently blasting through, temp dropped from 48 to 35 in a matter of 45 minutes

[dilly84]

I'm curious how long our local Mets in central ohio can keep saying 1-2" 6z nam soundings give .868 of snow. With high ratios.

[baroclinic_instability]

6Z GFS not only stopped southward track but is a tad N. Not much of a difference though through 12 hours.

[prinsburg_wx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

344 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAJOR SNOWSTORM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DID WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET

AND SNOW OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE NIGHT AS WARM

FRONT SURGED NORTH ACROSS IOWA. MAY KEEP A BIT OF A MIX EARLY AM

FOR THIS REGION...AS CRITICAL THICKNESS REMAINS WARM ENOUGH. MAY

SHOW WILL BE PERIODS/BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING

THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP

SHOWS RATHER STRONG DRYING MOVING INTO/THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH.

SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS WELL. FRONTOGENESIS

AND MINUS 15C OMEGA FIELD LINES UP ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL MN AND

PARTICULARLY WC WI...MAINLY ALONG A PRIOR LAKE TO WOODBURY AND

EAST TO MENOMINEE AND EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN LINE. THIS MAY BE THE

AREA SEEING THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH ISENTROPIC

LIFTS MAXIMIZES FROM JUST WEST OF THE METRO TO NW WI. STILL

SHOWING A GOOD 2.5 G/KG OF MIXING RATIO TO WORK WITH AND WITH SUCH

STRONG FORCING...WILL BE NO PROBLEM SEEING 1 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL

RATES DURING HEAVY SNOW.

WILL LIKELY START OFF THIS MORNING WITH A 4-7 INCH SNOW

BAND ACROSS THE METRO INTO A PORTION OF WC WI THIS MORNING. WILL

HAVE TO TRY AND MAP THIS INTO GOING SNOWFALL TOTAL GRID WHICH

BRINGS IN A 18 INCH TOTAL INTO WC WI WITH 15 INCHES COMMON OVER

MUCH OF THE METRO. AS THE STORM MOVES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN

IOWA...STRONGER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIVE INTO THE SYSTEM

WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO

SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NEAR

WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION.

THIS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WINDCHILLS DROPPING BELOW

MINUS 25 LATER TONIGHT...DEFINITE DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN

OPEN COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTH.