Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Well I am glad to know my thoughts are supported by something. This is the only model that is currently verifying with the placement and intensity of the low. It also tracks the low into southern MN. The 0z ECMWF had a sub 1004MB low in this exact spot at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Well I am glad to know my thoughts are supported by something. This is the only model that is currently verifying with the placement and intensity of the low. It also tracks the low into southern MN. And no I am not wish-casting.... Looks like it goes there, then quickly takes a dive towards the Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ Interesting. This looks to fill the northern edge of the dry slot pretty quickly tomorrow evening. How quick this happens has huge impacts on locations in the northern portion of the slot. I love how you can loop that model. You really get a feel for how things will evolve when it's set in motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The 0z ECMWF had a sub 1004MB low in this exact spot at 6z. I haven't seen the ECMWF so I can't comment. If it was 1004 then that would be well too high on surface pressure and it may not be modeling the rapid intensification well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 High Res models looking good.. No dry slut on them as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Looks like it goes there, then quickly takes a dive towards the Chicago area. I am not too worried that far out, worrying more about the first 12-18 hours since the models are struggling already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I haven't seen the ECMWF so I can't comment. If it was 1004 then that would be well too high on surface pressure and it may not be modeling the rapid intensification well. That's why I said sub 1004mb. The exact pressure is not given, but it looks exactly like the pressure map posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I haven't seen the ECMWF so I can't comment. If it was 1004 then that would be well too high on surface pressure and it may not be modeling the rapid intensification well. Ok.... LOL... You 're taking my last hope and Euro away from me.. Cats and Dogs are now safe... Now I'm coming for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Rapid Refresh dry sluts central/eastern iowa; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The 0z ECMWF had a sub 1004MB low in this exact spot at 6z. down to 1001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 For everyone here, I am not wish-casting, and I am not trying to put a damper on anyones potential snowfall. First, this storm is unbelievably sensitive to incipient cyclogenesis...I have never seen a storm as such before. I discussed this a long time ago prolly back on part III. We all witnessed this with the initial storm over OV transitioning into what it is now. Honestly I am not making any predictions, but early trends are noteworthy and rapid positive feedback cyclogenesis can have huge effects in a very short amount of time and can throw a forecast fast. We will see...I can honestly just be totally wrong. All I am saying is things should be watched with a close eye. It is mostly the forecaster in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Cold! check north dakota tomorrow night when we are in the -20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 some of the latest ruc are quite impressive MSP and points just northwest are gonna get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 some of the latest ruc are quite impressive MSP and points just northwest are gonna get hammered. Someone is going to see above 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Amazing how it wraps warm air in; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 For everyone here, I am not wish-casting, and I am not trying to put a damper on anyones potential snowfall. First, this storm is unbelievably sensitive to incipient cyclogenesis...I have never seen a storm as such before. I discussed this a long time ago prolly back on part III. We all witnessed this with the initial storm over OV transitioning into what it is now. Honestly I am not making any predictions, but early trends are noteworthy and rapid positive feedback cyclogenesis can have huge effects in a very short amount of time and can throw a forecast fast. We will see...I can honestly just be totally wrong. All I am saying is things should be watched with a close eye. It is mostly the forecaster in me. I know 100% you're not... We all appreciate your thoughts.. And many will have learned a great deal today with them.. I'm just messing around and hopefully you took no offense to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 This thing is going to have an epic TROWAL. That's characteristic of most of our extremely heavy snowfall events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The 00z Euro looks like its gives about an inch of qpf for MSP...all snow. (maybe slight chance at brief IP/ZR contamination early on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I know 100% you're not... We all appreciate your thoughts.. And many will have learned a great deal today with them.. I'm just messing around and hopefully you took no offense to it. Hey Bow does the Euro throw some QPF back into STL about hour 36-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hey guys, i'm in Extreme eastern Vernon county Wisconsin , in the heaviest ban, Snow is coming down heavy and wet, baseball size clumps, 2-2.5 inches on the ground already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 any good webcams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The PV Anomaly is beginning to look impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 amazing that two days ago we had open UL's and a weak storm. now we have a closed H3 low soon, a H5 at 522 DM going threw STL, that is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hey Bow does the Euro throw some QPF back into STL about hour 36-48 Not a whole lot I'm afraid if I'm reading it right. some hundredths it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hey guys, i'm in Extreme eastern Vernon county Wisconsin , in the heaviest ban, Snow is coming down heavy and wet, baseball size clumps, 2-2.5 inches on the ground already Unreal, you need to get a pic of baseball size snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The heavy stuff just hit, at the same time the NE winds started gusting to 20-30. Heavy heavy snow blowing horizontal. Visibility nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Reflectivity indicates a band of precip is gonna finally push into the area. Cold air still entrenched, we're at 27 °F. Very moist too, fog is actually already icing some things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Decent Sleet/Snow Mix now, another wave of 40-45dbz coming my way, not sure if it's really heavy sleet or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 If everyone wonders where I am look up Viola,WI on google maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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