Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 42hrs: Sub 996MB SLP centered along the Lake Erie/OH/PA shore area. Nice hit for parts of MI/OH. 48hrs: Elongted 996MB low from the Toronto area down into the Mid-Atl. Nice hit from Detroit/Toledo up into Ontario. Edit: Main portion of trowel stays just west of SSC through the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yeah, it is unfortunate. I could see it coming the whole storm, but I thought the SE trend would allow us to overcome that warm east and southeast wind. This would be a perfect track if not for temps. Pretty similar to the December 9th storm last year, except the low tracked right through MKE. I try to stay positive about it too sometimes thinking maybe this time it will snow but that rarely happens and the warm air wins and I have to drive inland to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yeah, it is unfortunate. I could see it coming the whole storm, but I thought the SE trend would allow us to overcome that warm east and southeast wind. This would be a perfect track if not for temps. Pretty similar to the December 9th storm last year, except the low tracked right through MKE. I'm not saying to totally ignore the lake temps but I guarantee that Milwaukee gets more than 1-3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I try to stay positive about it too sometimes thinking maybe this time it will snow but that rarely happens and the warm air wins and I have to drive inland to see snow. Are you talking about Lake Superior, or one of the larger inland lakes in MN? Anyways, I guess Milwaukeeans don't have too much to complain about, as we've had plenty of good snowstorms the last 5 years, but the last winter or two have been comparatively disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The Euro sounds pretty similar to most the other 00z runs this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm not saying to totally ignore the lake temps but I guarantee that Milwaukee gets more than 1-3... Agree, I would be shocked to see that ending up the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 0z ECMWF is spot on with the SLP at 6z...have not checked the others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Surface low is now reaching into the 1000 hpa range already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Surface low is now reaching into the 1000 hpa range already. More of a northerly track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 That is terrible. I have had that happen to me many times as well. You get excited for the storm and then you are disappointed because it rains by the lake. Good luck to you anyways. That's why I kept my excitement level tempered with the good news today.. I know better to now think you can beat a e/se wind. Euro does look a little more encouraging, I think.. Seems our wind turns to the NE and N faster.. Might be able to get a good 6-8+hrs of decent snow. Maybe knock out 3-6".. Thanks for the good luck and right back at you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 KOFK is now down to 1000.5 and still falling and the isallobaric gradient still says this will track NE into northern IA, no model is close to this intense yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 More of a northerly track? Possibly. NAM is the only model with that track but it isn't even close that intense yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 KOFK is now down to 1000.5 and still falling and the isallobaric gradient still says this will track NE into northern IA, no model is close to this intense yet. Could we see it occlude a little faster than progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 snows developing rapidly out in SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 you can see the 850 circulation going strong, main precip bands should be breaking out with this feature as it moves into iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Could we see it occlude a little faster than progged? This is becoming interesting. If it does keep this intensification up, it will certainly occlude faster and will have a larger dryslot that develops faster. Current band over MPX is much farther N than GFS in line with north NAM. Even crappy RUC now taking surface low farther N towards IA. My thoughts 12 hrs ago were if this indeed undergoes rapid positive feedback cyclogenesis, this thing could be all wrong with all models and track farther N. We will have to see, not going to say that will happen but current trends show this storm at least being more intense than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm not saying to totally ignore the lake temps but I guarantee that Milwaukee gets more than 1-3... GIBS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 This storm is so epic, can't believe this is really about to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 badger whats your guess for madtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 If I see B-Clinic post North one more time I'm going to start killing cats and dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 If I see B-Clinic post North one more time I'm going to start killing cats and dogs I am not wish casting or anything, just thoughts. Sorry you have an issue with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 New SPC high-res WRF shows a pretty stout dry slot over southeast Iowa and much of Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I am not wish casting or anything, just thoughts. Sorry you have an issue with those. No issues what so ever.. I can see how what I said came off like that though. Your wagons N helped me keep my weenie cool when it could have risen for hrs all day.. Did I want to hear you repeat N all day long though, NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 If I see B-Clinic post North one more time I'm going to start killing cats and dogs I know how you feel, but the UL have still trended much further south, the Surface low isn't directing the upper flow, won't the end result still be snow? even if the UL ends up in SE Wisconsin the H5 and H7 lows will still be way south with a trowel set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 badger whats your guess for madtown At least 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 infact won't a stronger SLP help wrap even more moisture back around into the cold sector? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 New SPC high-res WRF shows a pretty stout dry slot over southeast Iowa and much of Illinois. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Climate summaries are in and Chanhassen NWS was up to 1.4" as of midnight while the airport was once again lagging at .8". The highest total so far reported is 2.5" in Glencoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ Well I am glad to know my thoughts are supported by something. This is the only model that is currently verifying with the placement and intensity of the low. It also tracks the low into southern MN. And no I am not wish-casting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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