Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4

[ArmyGreens]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:37 AM, Hoosier said:

This is one of the funkiest precip type maps I've ever seen:

So I get yellow? Might as well be piss!

[A-L-E-K]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:37 AM, Hoosier said:

This is one of the funkiest precip type maps I've ever seen:

warm tounge right into the core, glad i stood pat with 2-5".

[TheWeatherPimp]

IWX local WRF strengthens the system to 994 mb tracking across Northern Indiana into Southeastern Lower Michigan/Northwestern Ohio

[cyclone77]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:37 AM, Hoosier said:

This is one of the funkiest precip type maps I've ever seen:

Kind of reminds me of the xmas storm last year when the changeover to snow came from the south.

[wi_fl_wx]

How does Madison, WI always cash in on these big snow events? The new GFS dumps over 1" QPF on Madison, all frozen, most of it snow. Temperature briefly gets to 33 in the afternoon but it won't matter because it will be snowing so hard.

[cyclone77]

For us near the Quad Cities I think 3-5" looks like a pretty good guess at this point. That pretty much goes along with what the NWS is forecasting. If the dry slot doesn't intrude as much as it looks it's still possible we could see more than that.

[BeastFromTheEast]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:43 AM, cyclone77 said:

Kind of reminds me of the xmas storm last year when the changeover to snow came from the south.

You know what happened after that.....

[A-L-E-K]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:45 AM, BeastFromtheEast said:

You know what happened after that.....

1.5" IMBY

[Hoosier]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:40 AM, Alek said:

warm tounge right into the core, glad i stood pat with 2-5".

Well, I don't know how good those are but it made me chuckle. It's an awfully tough call in your area but if I had to call it right now, I'd go with 6-10" north of I-80. 10-16" with localized 18+ amounts north of the Wisconsin border. An exception could be that southeast corner depending on how long the warm air holds on.

[prinsburg_wx]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:40 AM, trapperman said:

First flakes starting here. Man that is one intense band south/west of the metro...

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN INTO W CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 110019Z - 110515Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES 1-1.5 INCHES AN HOUR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE

NEXT FEW HOURS FIRST ACROSS CNTRL MN AND THEN INTO W CNTRL WI

OVERNIGHT.

[Chicago Storm]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:46 AM, Alek said:

1.5" IMBY

12.8"

[Hoosier]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:52 AM, Chicago Storm said:

12.8"

Either he undermeasured or you overmeasured because that's probably a 1 in a thousand year gradient for northern Cook county.

[A-L-E-K]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:49 AM, Hoosier said:

Well, I don't know how good those are but it made me chuckle. It's an awfully tough call in your area but if I had to call it right now, I'd go with 6-10" north of I-80. 10-16" with localized 18+ amounts north of the Wisconsin border. An exception could be that southeast corner depending on how long the warm air holds on.

bold call, we'll see if LOT feels the same way later tonight.

[msp]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:51 AM, prinsburg_wx said:

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN INTO W CNTRL WI

storm reports from the metro beginning to funnel in. 1" already in prior lake.

[Chicago Storm]

[jhamps10]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:58 AM, Chicago Storm said:

wow hello daddy....

[prinsburg_wx]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:57 AM, msp said:

storm reports from the metro beginning to funnel in. 1" already in prior lake.

heavy snow here with winds gusting around 30 from the NE.

[Chicago Storm]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:53 AM, Hoosier said:

Either he undermeasured or you overmeasured because that's probably a 1 in a thousand year gradient for northern Cook county.

Actually it was closer to 11"...most fell with the vort.

http://www.crh.noaa....nowfall_map.jpg

[A-L-E-K]

  On 12/11/2010 at 5:04 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Actually it was closer to 11"...most fell with the vort.

so he was right on both accounts.

[TimChgo9]

I'll back Alek on his 2-5" for LOT.

I don't see the heavier totals at all. I think most of the QPF will fall as rain, and the bulk of the 2-5" will come on the back side.

[TheWeatherPimp]

If you haven't checked it out, the 00z local WRF from the NWS IWX office is worth checking out:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/program_areas/model/wrf/display_applet.php?domain=d01&field=mslp&scale=syn

[Chicago Storm]

  On 12/11/2010 at 5:05 AM, Alek said:

so he was right on both accounts.

Around an inch fell at the start of the system, so that was the system total.

Correct on the gradient though...

[Hoosier]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:53 AM, Alek said:

bold call, we'll see if LOT feels the same way later tonight.

One of the keys obviously is how far north that dry slot gets. Given the track, some of the models seem to be too exaggerated with the dry punch but who knows. I'm hedging toward it being a minimal issue in your area. If it is a major issue, then I'm too high.

[A-L-E-K]

  On 12/11/2010 at 5:10 AM, Hoosier said:

One of the keys obviously is how far north that dry slot gets. Given the track, some of the models seem to be too exaggerated with the dry punch but who knows. I'm hedging toward it being a minimal issue in your area. If it is a major issue, then I'm too high.

I've stopped worrying about the dryslot (the qpf is gonna be there) and moved on to worrying about thermal issues. You know me, if it's not one thing, it's the other.

[dilly84]

  On 12/11/2010 at 5:01 AM, jhamps10 said:

wow hello daddy....

That looks great for you an I both.

[beavis1729]

  On 12/11/2010 at 5:07 AM, TheWeatherPimp said:

If you haven't checked it out, the 00z local WRF from the NWS IWX office is worth checking out:

http://www.crh.noaa....=mslp&scale=syn

Nice find.

For Chicago, it looks like about 1.25" qpf total for the event, with about half of it falling after 9PM Saturday. A bit more qpf up by MKE.

[LizardMafia]

Looks like maybe an inch or two now for this area..

Really interesting how things are swinging in the models...

[baroclinic_instability]

Well this thing is getting going fast. Surface low is tracking into NW Iowa and is already 2-3 hpa deeper than any guidance including NAM, sustained winds at KRAP 39 G50, G to 45 in parts of Nebraska.

[Hoosier]

  On 12/11/2010 at 5:28 AM, baroclinic_instability said:

Well this thing is getting going fast. Surface low is tracking into NW Iowa and is already 2-3 hpa deeper than any guidance including NAM, sustained winds at KRAP 39 G50, G to 45 in parts of Nebraska.

The RUC has it down to 999 mb at 16z.

[Jim Marusak]

  On 12/11/2010 at 4:57 AM, msp said:

storm reports from the metro beginning to funnel in. 1" already in prior lake.

we got a coating to 1/2" over most of st paul, that i could see as i was driving home tonight. driving in for tomorrow morning's 1030am-730pm shift should be interesting.